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Matt Bowen By Matt Bowen
Posted October 15, 2008
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NFL Over/Under: Playing the Odds

Every Wednesday here at the National Football Post I play the NFL odds. This week: Dallas Cowboys’ drama, Shaun Alexander, the Titans, and more…

 

 

 

8- Games The Pac Man will miss due to suspension (OVER)

 

By now you have heard the news—not that this is really news. Look, we all knew this one was coming sooner or later. Pac Man Jones is a time bomb—in the worst way. I went with the over on this one because I think Commissioner Goodell has had it with this guy (I know I have). I would not be surprised to see this be the end of this story, but I think we all know better. Trouble or not, Jones can still play the game of football, and that is really all that counts when it comes down to it in the NFL. Slap him on the wrist, make him sit in a “timeout,” or ground him for the weekend. Goodell has to feel like an angry parent of a teenage kid. Beyond all of this nonsense lies the fact that Jones let his team down at a time they really needed him. Sometime in Pac Man’s life he is going to have to be taught what the word “accountability” means—because he has no idea right now. But, let’s be honest—he wasn’t making any plays.

 

300- Yards new Redskin Shaun Alexander gains on the ground this year (UNDER)

 

I have to think this is one of those “throw you a bone” types of signings by the Redskins. Alexander has worked with head coach Jim Zorn before, and coaches are known to do these types of things. Sort of like a courtesy call. Alexander is a big name (nothing new in DC), a former MVP, and creates some buzz amongst the fans. Besides that, I think he is just a fill-in for the time being. With RB Ladell Betts going down with a knee injury that could keep him out for a couple of weeks (or more), Alexander can step in for Clinton Portis for a carry here or there—but this is Portis’ team, so don’t expect the former Seahawk to start putting up 100-yard games. When Betts comes back he might be at the airport heading back home.

 

2- Games the Cowboys win without QB Tony Romo (UNDER)

 

I don’t see it folks. Yes, they brought in WR Roy Williams via trade yesterday from the Lions (Remember Terrell, there is only one ball), but they are battling tons of injuries at key positions—not to mention the major one at QB. Romo is a Pro Bowler. When you lose your starting QB in the NFL—it is time to panic. When you lose a Pro Bowler, it is time to break down and cry a little. I see them beating St. Louis this weekend (they should watch the Redskins-Rams film first), and then dropping one at home to Tampa. That leaves a trip to the Meadowlands to face the Giants, who we saw aren’t unbeatable on Monday night. Most likely another loss, putting them at 5-4 heading into the bye week. This team is in trouble, and I don’t see a solution until Romo returns, and the secondary starts to play good defense. It could turn ugly, or the ‘Boys could rally and make me look like an idiot.

 

25- Percentage of Fans who think the undefeated Titans are for real (UNDER)

 

This is an easy one to call. Do you ever remember an undefeated team at this point in the season getting as little respect as Tennessee does? All I heard about after week two last year was the Patriots, and their undefeated start—not to say that the Titans are going to run the table this year (no chance), but we need to start talking, writing, and watching this team play. There is an obvious reason we flip the channel when they are on, or why we can’t name a single receiver on their team—they are boring, but in a good way. Teams like this, such as the 2000 Ravens, win ugly, play ugly, and wear hideous uniforms (Titans’ uniforms are the worst in the league). But, they are there when it counts, and they make opposing players get out of bed on Monday feeling like they just went on a week long bender and took up boxing. I like this team for that reason.

 

0- Hours Tony Gonzalez slept last night after he wasn’t traded (PUSH)

 

Gonzalez might not sleep the rest of the season after this. Think about it, instead of waking up to practice with the Bills, the Giants, the Cardinals, or the Eagles—Gonzalez will walk back into the Chiefs facility and prepare for another beating this week against the Titans. Notice anything about those teams I just listed? Well, they all have quarterbacks, and they are all in the hunt to play in January this year. The Chiefs’ players will be in the Bahamas come January and Gonzalez will have to watch the playoffs on TV—again. This situation didn’t make any sense to me. Why not trade Gonzalez and utilize the draft picks you would get from the deal? I know Gonzalez is a long-time Chief (maybe the greatest of all time in that uniform), but the more wins you get, the more money you make as an organization. Bad move by an organization that isn’t going to win for a while, and a long couple of months coming up for Gonzalez.

 

 

 

Fantasy Draft Guide

Remarks

24 comments for “NFL Over/Under: Playing the Odds”

  1. b roo
    October 15, 2008
    12:16 pm

    Looks like you are spot on with the calls this week. The poll on your own website puts the Titans with 19% thinking they can win the Bowl. Even with Newman out the Pacman suspension may actually be good for Dallas, as you said he wasn’t making many plays anyway, Fitzgerald schooled him this past weekend. Giants will be catching Dallas at a very opportune time and I imagine they will take advantage of it. The Tampa game should be close though.

  2. Matt Bowen
    October 15, 2008
    12:34 pm

    B Roo- I like your observations…. Dallas might limp into the bye week, but there is no reason they shouldn’t come out of it healthy and dominant.

  3. Sausage King of Chicago
    October 15, 2008
    12:49 pm

    Kick Pacman out of the league. The guy needs to grow up. He has ran out of chances with the NFL

  4. Jason
    October 15, 2008
    1:00 pm

    Wish the Chiefs would have pulled the trigger on the Bills’ offer for Gonzo…

  5. Patrick Craig
    October 15, 2008
    1:06 pm

    Can we officially stop calling him Pac Man ? I think rain man is more appropriate and not because of his actions in a strip club. Of course I’m good driver, definitely a good driver.

  6. Matt Bowen
    October 15, 2008
    1:43 pm

    Jason- I here you there… Edwards would love a guy like that and the Bills could use both Royal and Gonzalez in certain offensive sets… I think it was the Chiefs who balked at the offers.

  7. Matt Bowen
    October 15, 2008
    1:43 pm

    Sausage King of Chicago- You might get your wish pretty soon…

    Polish or Italian Sausage guy?

  8. b roo
    October 15, 2008
    1:53 pm

    Patrick, I’m with you on the name change but let’s just call him Chumpman. If he ever is allowed back he definitely shouldn’t wear 21 again. Deion Sanders befriended the guy and told him he didn’t mind him taking his old number as if that would make him the next great punt returner/cover corner. He had plenty of time to work into shape and he hasn’t done well at either job, he can’t hold a candle to Primetime.

  9. Matt Bowen
    October 15, 2008
    1:57 pm

    B Roo- You bring up a good point about Primetime…. He has to be dissapointed in the way Pac Man has acted since being in Dallas..

  10. Sausage King of Chicago
    October 15, 2008
    2:09 pm

    Polish all the way guy with a cheddarwurst ride along!!! GO HAWKS

  11. Nittany Titan
    October 15, 2008
    2:14 pm

    I love the fact we’re flying under the radar … national media’s never paid us any attention since we moved here anyways, so what’s really new there … we like it that way … let ESPN fall all over themselves w/ DAL & the NY teams, we don’t care one iota … we just go about our business and win football games … back in ‘02 & ‘03 when we were one of the better teams in the league it was the same deal then too … all we did then was go to the AFC Champ game in ‘02 then lost to NE in ‘03 in the Div Rd when Drew dropped that pass that woulda put us in FG range to force OT … of course if we keep winning and get to 7-0 or 8-0 then the national media will start jumping on … thanks for the props Matt …

  12. dan
    October 15, 2008
    2:18 pm

    but not on the road just in the driveway yeah

  13. dan
    October 15, 2008
    2:19 pm

    yeah just in the driveway yeah, definitely…definitely very good driver

  14. Peter
    October 15, 2008
    2:20 pm

    Matt - Primetime is certainly disappointed. At the same time, pacman’s other “mentors” were Michael Irvin and Tank Johnson, so is anybody really surprised that he cannot stay out of trouble?

    Also, not sure whether the rumor is true, but apparently my Packers offered a 3rd for Gonzales, and boy would that’ve been something. With that group of WRs we have and a legitimate receiving TE, our offense would be much better. He also wants to play 2 more years after that, so I am kind of disappointed, but I guess KC wanted too much. Not sure what it does for them, since they are talking about rebuilding. Even if he is around, it will not be forever and they could rather use draft picks to rebuild for being good in 2 - 3 years when the draft picks come into their own. Now they will not get much better until he retires (don’t even have a real QB yet). Feel kind of bad for him. He is a very good playerand didn’t even have the opportunity to play in the post-season yet.

  15. Joe in Raleigh
    October 15, 2008
    2:49 pm

    I sort of disagree about Gonzalez. Teams rebound quickly in the NFL. Consider the Falcons who were terrible last year. A new coach, a good draft and a few key FA’s and they’re back to being competitive.

    The Chiefs have some nice skill players in Johnson and Bowe. They had a good draft this past April. They could turn things around relatively quickly and be competitive in 2009 if they can find a capable QB.

  16. JP
    October 15, 2008
    2:52 pm

    Even the Chiefs have to get something for Gonzo..can’t just give him away for a 3rd. Shockey went for a 2nd and 5th and Tony is much better. He could play 2-3 more years on a good team that he was motivated to help. He will be dealt in the offseason for a 3rd though and KC fans will be calling for Peterson’s head even more (if that’s possible).

  17. Matt Bowen
    October 15, 2008
    3:14 pm

    Joe- The only issue I see is that the Chiefs have too many holes to fill, at quarterback and on defense. You can’t find good quarterbacks like the teams that were interested in them had… Plus, he has to play thye rest of this year on maybe the worst team in the league.

  18. Matt Bowen
    October 15, 2008
    3:15 pm

    Peter- You bring up good points on Irvin and Tank… He was doomed from the start..

    Heard that too about the Pack and Gonzalez– Would have been nice to add him to that offense.

  19. Matt Bowen
    October 15, 2008
    3:16 pm

    Sausage King- Hawks 23 Badgers 13

  20. Matt Bowen
    October 15, 2008
    3:30 pm

    JP- Shockey is younger– that’s the reason I think he warrants the higher draft pick… Lots of miles on Gonzalez.

  21. Gabriel Mihdawi
    October 15, 2008
    5:11 pm

    I’m surprised nobody mentioned that if the Cowboys lose two of the next three games like Matt predicted, they would be 5-4, not 5-3.

  22. Terry in San Antonio
    October 15, 2008
    8:25 pm

    Tough call on Tony G., Matt. Greatest in a Chiefs uniform; Tony G. or the late Derrick Thomas?

  23. b roo
    October 15, 2008
    9:16 pm

    Peter,
    Irvin has gotten his act together so it is certainly no fault of his that Pacrat messed up again. Same with Tank I think. He’s not 15 years out of the woods like Playmaker yet but he seems to be reformed. Pacrat is on his own and can’t blame anyone else but himself.
    Nittany,
    Noboby that watches the league thinks Titans are under the radar. They are for real and a force to be reckoned with. Vegas may wake up someday but I’ve got a ticket that pays big if they win the Bowl.

  24. Matt Bowen
    October 15, 2008
    10:25 pm

    Terry- Tough call– both great players.

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