The Junior Rush Of 2009

A lot of agents, like me, have built a network of NFL college scouts to rely on for inside information on pro prospects.

Each NFL team has between 5 -10 college scouts that scour the country and evaluate just about every potential NFL prospect.  These regional scouts may visit the same college several times a year, and they have intimate knowledge of what’s going on with every player at each college in their respective region.  In addition, they have an accurate feel as to which underclassmen may be declaring for the 2009 draft. 

It has been brought to my attention by a few reputable scouts that there may be a larger than usual wave of underclassmen seriously considering coming out early in 2009. The motivation for this trend is the fear that the opportunity for large signing bonuses and contracts will disappear in 2010.

I am being told that agents are telling underclassmen “to come out this year because owners are going to stop agreeing to large contracts,” such as the contracts we saw Jake Long and Matt Ryan receive this year.

After hearing this, I called a few college-pro liaisons who confirmed they have been hearing the same concerns from their Juniors.  The tune from some agents are, “it’s now or never to win your lottery ticket”.  Unfortunately, for the 2010 draft class and beyond, there may be some truth to smaller signing bonuses and contracts.  However, my belief is that it will most likely only affect the first 5 to 10 slots at the most. 

I have no doubt this “fear” is being fed by a handful of agents who feed on underclassmen and brazenly skirt “the junior rule”, which prohibits agents from communicating with underclassmen. 

I do envision the NFLPA making some small concessions with the owners in this area for some type of limits on 1st round contracts. But, it won’t be without shorter terms. If not, the owners may just draw their own line in the sand.

Keep in mind that the NFL Players Union board of players consist of older veterans that will have no objections in redistributing Rookie Signing Bonus dollars to veteran contracts.   However, the rookie salary pool is only 3.9% of the overall salary cap, thus the veterans are receiving the bulk of the cap allocation.  Furthermore, the average NFL salary right now is about 1.85 million.  Therefore, those players drafted only up to the middle of the second round are making more than the Vets.

Regardless of what the future holds, Juniors may want to think twice about jumping in the draft early solely based on this reasoning.  First of all, if this information is coming from a small group of unscrupulous agents, it is obviously self-serving to get these Juniors as clients.  Secondly, I want to reiterate that in my professional opinion it may affect as little as the five or ten 1^st round slots. Thirdly, keep in mind that earlier this year, in May, Commissioner Roger Goodell made a statement from the owner meetings that “Rookie contracts were ridiculous.” Simultaneously, Jake Long of the Dolphins was rewarded with 34.75 million dollars in guarantees.  Thus, it’s highly doubtful ALL owners will collude on signing bonuses and guaranteed monies down to a fraction of what they are today. They simply can’t help themselves.

Furthermore, if and when Signing Bonuses and Guaranteed Rookie monies are modified downward there will be a “giveback” to draftees, such as shorter contracts with the opportunity for an earlier shot at Free Agency.  I think there are a lot of agents who would love to see 4 year deals across the board in the 1^st round. This is a solid trade off for rookies!!

In 2008, over 50 Juniors (the most ever) came out early, 42 were drafted with only 12 being drafted in the first round. In 2007, over 40 juniors declared, 40 were drafted and only 7 were first round picks.  Unfortunately, players were convinced by agents that if they come out early they would definitely be a 1^st Round Pick.  This is an on-going problem which both the NCAA and the NFLPA has had little success in policing.  However, the players who don’t fully explore and research their values with the tools available for them from the NFL will continue to fall victim to their own naivety.  The bottom line for Juniors is this; if you don’t have a particular hardship, and you are not a guaranteed first round pick, you are better off staying for another year.