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Matt Bowen By Matt Bowen
Posted November 19, 2008
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NFL Over/Under: Playing the Odds

It’s Wednesday here at The National Football Post, time to play the NFL odds. Today: Packer interceptions, Joey Porter, Playoffs in Big D, and more.

 

 30- Total Interceptions for the Packer defense at season’s end (OVER)

 

The Packers have picked off 16 passes this season. After 10 games, that is a big number, and the reason I am even writing about this. We all know the Packers are a man-to-man team, which leads to big plays. Throw in the play-making guys they have in the back-end—Charles Woodson, Al Harris, Nick Collins, Tramon Williams—and this number could be a reality. The schedule, however, might throw a wrench into my Wednesday prediction. They will have plenty (and I mean plenty) of opportunities against Drew Brees and the Saints on Monday night—who might as well just go from the Shotgun on every snap—but after that, the passing frenzy is going to stop. Games against Carolina, Jacksonville, and Chicago down the stretch might make this number impossible, but they still have Houston (pick city) and Detroit in the season finale—which could lead to about 5 picks depending on who the Lions pick up off the street to take snaps that day. RB Ryan Grant is the leading the coffee house talk this week, but the defense, and their playmakers, make Green Bay a contender. In case you are wondering, the team record for picks in a season is 49—by the ’61 Chargers. That will never be broken, unless Rex Grossman gets a starting job next year.

 

2- Sacks for Joey Porter against the Patriots this Sunday (UNDER)

 

He’s back. That’s right, Joey Porter, the new “Mouth of the South” is spouting off about something new this week. Surprised? You shouldn’t be. By now, we all know what to expect from Porter, who is having a Pro Bowl season down in Miami—and he is running with it. I wonder what this guy is going to do without football years from now, but that is another story. The relevant story is the Dolphins match-up with the Pats in Miami. We don’t need to be reminded of what happened in Foxborough when the “Wildcat” offense became as trendy as NFL players driving Hummers. Porter made a couple of plays and so on. I don’t see it happening again folks. For starters, Matt Cassel is a better quarterback, and the Patriots are a better football team than way back then. If I were still playing (or if I was any good when I was playing), I wouldn’t talk noise with the Patriots coming to town. I think the Pats go after Porter early (bounties anyone?), take him out of the game, and physically whip the Dolphins on Sunday. Sorry Joey, it might be a long day for you.

 

60%- Probability that the Cowboys make the Playoffs (UNDER)

 

Sorry folks, but we have to talk about the Cowboys after their 4th quarter win over the Redskins on Sunday night to go to 6-4 on the season. They looked like a playoff team on the road—running the football and playing outstanding defense. But, will it last? I don’t think so. Here’s the deal when it comes to football teams filled with superstars. They won because Marion Barber refused to be tackled. Good—for now. How long are Terrell Owens and Roy Williams (maybe even Tony Romo) going to put up with that? A running team? Not going to work in Big D. If the Cowboys want to be in the Playoffs, they need to have a game plan like they did against the Skins, but there is no chance they can keep that up. Sooner or later, that Cowboy Drama—the one that has taken a back seat for a week—will be back. Plus, take a look at the schedule. Two easy wins coming up (Niners, Seahawks), but after that it gets tough. Games against the Steelers, Giants, Ravens, and Eagles. Ouch. Can they split the last four and finish 10-6? Is that even good enough to get in? I don’t hate the Cowboys, like some of my readers like to point out, but I can’t pick them as a playoff team. What’s worse—I picked them to be in the Super Bowl this pre-season.

 

100%- Probability that Giants RB Brandon Jacobs plays this week (PUSH)

 

One thing you have to understand about football players, especially running backs, is that they don’t need the practice time during the season to perform. Do you really think Jacobs is going to sit out this Sunday? No way. Let’s compare this situation to the one we saw last week with Clinton Portis. CP didn’t practice all week, and every story we read out of DC said there was no chance he was going to play against the Cowboys. Mind games my friends, mind games. The Redskins knew all along that CP would be out there, but they wanted to send the message to Dallas that they would be without their MVP candidate. The same can be said for the Giants. Yes, Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward are nice backs, but they aren’t Jacobs. New York wants the Cardinal defenders to drop their guard a bit, relax (knowing they don’t have to mentally prepare to tackle a Mack truck in the hole), and then watch their eyes get wide—real wide—when he comes out of the locker room in uniform, complete with Cardinal players mouthing “Oh S…” Jacobs will play, if he is the warrior I think he is.

 

 

75- Percentage of NFL who actually know the Over Time rules (OVER)

 

OK, I couldn’t help myself with this one. I know the rule, as does 80% of my Graduate Magazine Writing class (I polled them last night), so I would have to assume that over 75% of the NFL players do as well? Right? Maybe not folks. We all know the story—Donovan McNabb thought he was going out there to start a new series, complete with strategy for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down—depending on what the defense showed pre-snap. But, when the defense lines up at the goal-line (70 yards away); something had to click in McNabb’s mind. I’m sure that Eagle’s head man, Andy Reid, had to be completely speechless when McNabb thought they were going on the field for a new series, but coaches, like players, are so wrapped around  game plan preparation during the season, that they assume the rules are understood by every player on the team. You wonder if McNabb passed on some opportunities in OT, because he thought he could take that same chance on the next drive. Absolutely brutal my friends.

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Remarks

25 comments for “NFL Over/Under: Playing the Odds”

  1. Romo4MVP
    November 19, 2008
    12:47 pm

    OVER on Boys in the Playoffs… They will finish 11-5

  2. Patspsycho
    November 19, 2008
    1:03 pm

    NE @ MIA will be interesting. I am interested in seeing how NE will stop wildcat formation. BB has already said he will not beat up Pennington if he lines up as receiver, so this gives away the fact that BB has figured out an approach. Pats do not have same personnel as Ravens D, but would be worthwhile to study how they destroyed wildcat by pressuring off the edges and funneling play back inside, into DL. I would think a good tool is 4 or 5 man blitz to force player taking snap to throw, especially if it is TB. At the very least enforce at line of scrimmage, maintain gap discipline, roll SS to nullify long play.

    But then you have to figure that Parcells know BB will think this way (and I say Parcells not Sparano, because you know very well who is in charge) and will adjust wildcat to beat the blitz by targeting slot.

    Cassel is getting rid of ball much faster, and more fluid in checkdown and reads, and it will be a matter of DL pride to deny Porter any sacks. I see him being double-teamed or at least have RB key him for the block on 3rd and long. For that I take the under, and furthermore take ZERO.

  3. Matt Bowen
    November 19, 2008
    1:06 pm

    I think Joey P might get shut out as well

  4. Da Coach
    November 19, 2008
    1:07 pm

    Porter will make a couple of plays, so that he can run his mouth again next week, but it won’t matter. I see the Pats rolling in this one.

    I hope the Packers don’t reach 30 picks as a defensive unit. That would be bad news for Orton.

    Cowgirls finish 9-7.

  5. RedSox Nation
    November 19, 2008
    1:09 pm

    I will give credit to Porter for the year he is having. He can back up the talk. But, Belli will have something for him come Sunday. Maybe a couple of “cut” blocks to shut him up.

  6. Matt
    November 19, 2008
    1:44 pm

    Matt - I’ve got a slight statistical bone to pick with you. You really can’t use percentages (unless you’re going 0 or 100%) in an over/under format. Using percentages doesn’t allow for you to go back and check whether you were right or wrong. Regardless of whether or not the Cowboys make the playoffs, it will be impossible to say if there was a greater than or less than 60% chance of it happening at the time of this writing.

    Clearly, I understand this is all for fun, so carry on as you will. I just thought I’d point that out.

  7. Matt Bowen
    November 19, 2008
    1:54 pm

    Matt- You bring up a good point with percentages, but I need some of these to work in my favor, right?

  8. WalleyeKing
    November 19, 2008
    2:00 pm

    Who cares about percentages when talking about the Cowgirls…

    They aren’t going anywhere except home this January.

  9. Romo4MVP
    November 19, 2008
    2:06 pm

    Last I checked, 11-5 will get you in the playoffs in the NFC,so unless there is a new rule that prohibits the best teams from going to the Playoffs, I would have to say that you will be watching my COWBOYS marching to Tampa this winter.

    Oh yeah, the Skins fans can watch us too.

  10. b roo
    November 19, 2008
    2:11 pm

    Under for the Pack, there won’t be enough passes thrown to get there.

    Porter will get 2. Since they’re playing in Miami the defensive radio calls won’t be bugged to tip off the blitz calls for the Pats offense.

    Jacobs will probably play but with reduced carries. They are far enough ahead in the division to rest him some now. I’d put his over/under number of carries at 10 and take the under.

    I’d put the ‘Boys chances at about 50-50 right now. NFC South is putting up a fight for some wildcard berths this year.

    Perhaps the overtime rule should be included in the Wunderlich exam.

  11. Matt Bowen
    November 19, 2008
    2:14 pm

    Romo: 11-5? Are you talking about the Cowboys team that beat Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl?

  12. b roo
    November 19, 2008
    2:23 pm

    “Cowgirls”? Really? Is that the best you can come up with. Yawn.

    NFC South should get both wildcards if they are really as good as advertised. Unlike the East team’s schedules the NFC South teams play the soft NFC North and AFC West for the rest of the season.

  13. Da Coach
    November 19, 2008
    2:24 pm

    Does anyone else think that Jacobs is a product of his offensive line?

  14. Matt Bowen
    November 19, 2008
    2:25 pm

    B Roo- But the NFC East gets to play the NFC West this year. That is 3 automatic wins.

  15. Matt Bowen
    November 19, 2008
    2:26 pm

    Coach- Every back is a product of the offensive line, but the great backs make the first guy miss once they get through the hole, or run over the first guy in Jacob’s case.

  16. b roo
    November 19, 2008
    2:31 pm

    Unfortunately only 2 wins if you lose to the Rams like Skins and Dallas did.
    That 9ers teams isn’t looking like a pushover anymore either.

  17. Da Coach
    November 19, 2008
    2:32 pm

    Agreed, but there are still plenty of backs I would rather have than Jacobs–Barber, Portis, AP, Chris Johnson, Thomas Jones, Forte, etc.

    I don’t think he will last through the playoffs. Takes too many hits.

  18. Matt Bowen
    November 19, 2008
    2:33 pm

    Niners are still a team that every NFC East club should dominate…

  19. b roo
    November 19, 2008
    2:50 pm

    I’ve been a huge Singletary fan ever since watching him play at Baylor. Never forget his performance in the 1981 Cotton Bowl in a losing cause. Even as a kid I thought Landry was crazy to pass over drafting him because they thought he was too small to play linebacker in the NFL. NFC East teams maybe should dominate 9ers but nobody better overlook them because he will have them bringing it every week from here on out. Besides we SHOULD have dominated the Rams, too. Aside from the Giants, no team in the East is good enough to overlook anybody and if they don’t come out fired up with their A game every week then both wildcards will go to the South.

  20. Bob Lovely
    November 19, 2008
    2:52 pm

    Matt,

    As a Packers fan, I am most interested in W’s the rest of way. Interceptions certainly create offensive opportunities but, in December there will have be to be some “three and out” defensive stops especially at Lambeau Field in winter weather conditions. One game at a time…

    Bob

  21. Matt Bowen
    November 19, 2008
    3:45 pm

    I hear you Bob, but the INTs can win games in Decmeber too–especially in the red zone

  22. JDPhin
    November 19, 2008
    4:30 pm

    I’m with you on most of them, but here’s where I differ:

    Pack gets under 30 INT’s. I think they’ll hit high 20’s, but as you said the rest of the teams on their schedule doesn’t really lend itself to 14 in 7 games…JP doesn’t hit 2(maybe 1-1.5), but there is no way NE can physically ‘whip’ MIA right now. They don’t have the personnel. Through schemes-yes, but they aren’t going to beat you up physically. It will be a long day for both teams no doubt, but MIA is going to hit and punish NE just hard, if not harder, than NE will MIA. That’s been their MO since the first NE game, and really only the Ravens have been able to take it to MIA physically. ST, however, that’s a different matter entirely…I fear for MIA special teams.

    *And to Patspsycho, I can excuse your understanding of how things work down here in MIA, as you are a Pats fan, and like most everyone else outside of SoFla you still think that Sparano is Parcells’ Pinocchio. Parcells, I can emphatically state, does NOT run the team. Sparano does. Parcells runs the org(yes, there is a difference). Sparano is his own man, and Parcells generally leaves him to his own devices. That’s not to say he doesn’t taste the soup and offer suggestions, but he ain’t the one cooking. I hope we all can finally move past this nonsense now.;)

  23. dan
    November 19, 2008
    6:31 pm

    Sparano: Taste the soup!
    Parcells: what’s wrong, is the soup too hot?
    Sparano: Will ya’ taste the soup?!
    Parcells: What? What, is the soup too cold?
    Sparano: Jus’ taste the soup!
    Parcells: Alright, alright I’ll taste the soup. Where’s the spoon?
    Sparano: Aha…aha!

    …ah, what do you know from funny?

  24. dan
    November 19, 2008
    6:38 pm

    49 picks…holy crud! That’s one heck of a season.

  25. JDPhin
    November 20, 2008
    3:50 am

    dan-that’s pretty durn funny. Always like a good ‘Coming to America’ reference.

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