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Matt Bowen By Matt Bowen
Posted November 12, 2008
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NFL Over/Under: Playing the Odds

It is Wednesday here at the National Football Post, time to play the NFL odds. Today: Romo is back, Lions’ QBs, Kurt winning the MVP, and more.

 

250- Yards Tony Romo throws for in his return against the Redskins (UNDER)

 

This is a tough one to call—especially since the Skins rank 4th in the league in total defense (272 yards a game). If the game was in Irving, on that garbage welcome-mat like turf, I might side with Romo—but not at Fed Ex. Folks, this is the best rivalry in pro sports (sorry Yanks-Bo Sox). Plus, how healthy is Romo? A broken finger to a scrub safety like I was is nothing. A broken finger to a quarterback who loves, I mean loves; to throw the deep ball is like Tiger Woods playing without a putter. Don’t be shocked if he is a little rusty, which is to be expected. But, it better not last Tony, because you do play with T.O. He is not going to put up with excuses. Though, I’m sure T.O. and every fan of the ‘Boys is ecstatic that the Brad Johnson/ Brooks Bollinger/ Drew Henson project is over. I think Romo throws for 210 and a couple of TDs—one to T.O. in another classic Skins-‘Boys match up. Gotta love NFC East football under the lights.

 

75%- Probability that Kurt Warner wins the MVP this season (OVER)

 

I really think this is going to happen. Sure, there is the emotional feeling the national media is going to have to vote for this guy, just because of his story. Let’s think about it: Warner was left for dead in sports lingo. His career was over, and he would head back to Iowa with his memories of the “Greatest Show On Turf” from his days as a Super Bowl champion in St. Louis. Not so fast my friends. Warner is playing the quarterback position better than anyone right now and consistently puts up 300-yards and multiple touchdown games. Plus, and this is a big plus, the Arizona Cardinals are winning football games. This is a playoff team folks—because of Warner. I played with Kurt as a Rookie in the STL, and there aren’t many more guys that deserve or command the respect he does. He is as professional as you can get in this league. But, those are my opinions, however, 2,760 yards, 19 TDs, and a 6-3 record should be considered in your opinion.

 

 

6- Different starting quarterbacks for the Lions this year (PUSH)

 

This one should settle in at six—which is atrocious—but so are your Detroit Lions. Jon Kitna, David Orvlosky, Daunte Culpepper, Drew Stanton, and maybe, just maybe, two other guys to slide under the guillotine. If Stanton goes down or struggles (a more likely possibility), I am sure the fine scouting department in Detroit will find another holiday leftover to bring in. How about Jeff George? He isn’t 50-years old yet and can probably still sling it. Maybe Vinny Testaverde, or even better—bring back Mike McMahon. I know, I know, I am killing this team, but you had to expect Daunte Culpepper, the guy who pulled the classic “I am going to retire because no one will let me walk in and start” card, was going to come back, and play like he hasn’t picked up a football in two years. I played quarterback in high school, and I am thinking about sending the Lions my highlight tape. Thoughts?

 

 

70- Receptions DeAngelo Hall gives up this year (UNDER)

 

I can’t go this high because I don’t know how much the coaching staff of the Redskins is going to put up with Hall, plus they only have 7 games left. Hall, if you check the stats, has given up 40 receptions this year for a big time number of 556 yards. That is not good, in fact, it is horrendous—considering the type of coin the Raiders paid for this guy (plus the draft picks). Cowboys’ WR Terrell Owens has already stated that he loves to play against the guy, in part because he owns him. I’m not going to lie, this guy bother me, not because he runs his mouth (which I have no issues with), but he doesn’t make any plays while doing it (which I have a major problem with). I know the Redskins like to bring in the “big names” when it comes to any free agent signing, but I am not feeling this move. Grab a young guy that has promise. Don’t bring in a guy that was a bust on one of the worst teams in football and loves to tell us how great he is.

 

30- Combined points in tomorrow’s Jets-Patriots match up (UNDER)

 

This one is going to be an ugly one. Two teams that are playing defense and two teams that have resorted to running the football to win games. The Jets are, well, just an ugly football team to start with. Is it me, or do they look like a team that was just thrown together at the last minute? There is nothing smooth about how they play, and we all know Brett Favre can start chucking it all over the place (including the seats) at a moments notice. The Pats might be the most beat up, beat down, crippled team in the NFL—but Bill Belichick always finds a way to get it done (except his laundry). I am not a huge fan of Thursday night football in the NFL, but this is a nice one to watch as you warm up for Sunday. I wouldn’t expect a lot of fireworks from the offenses of these two. We may be looking at a 13-10 ball game. I really don’t want to throw a score out there, but I just can’t help myself.

 

JETS 16 PATS 11.

 

I read my e-mails, so I won’t be shocked if Pats fans want to tell me that I am an idiot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Remarks

30 comments for “NFL Over/Under: Playing the Odds”

  1. Romo4MVP
    November 12, 2008
    12:10 pm

    I think he will be rusty too Matt. But, I think he gets the job done in a 4th quarter comeback win for my ‘Boys.

    Cowboys 27
    Skins 23

  2. Matt Bowen
    November 12, 2008
    12:14 pm

    That’s a lot of points Romo…

    I have to say that I like the Skins at home.

  3. London_Ben
    November 12, 2008
    12:15 pm

    You’re an idiot. No, just kidding, I agree it will be a dirty brawl in Foxborough tomorrow, the RBs will be very busy on both sides. But home advantage, and Cassel’s growing confidence should be enough to see us home. I fancy us to get a huge, season-defining win, 17-14. Oh, and #81 will burn Ty Law for a huge gain at some stage during the night.

  4. b roo
    November 12, 2008
    12:19 pm

    10-Number of receptions Hall gives up this week. (Push)

  5. Matt Bowen
    November 12, 2008
    12:20 pm

    You have a good argument there Ben. I actually have Grad Class tomorrow night, so I will have to catch the replay when I get home.

  6. Matt Bowen
    November 12, 2008
    12:21 pm

    B Roo- I hear you on that, but I don’t know how many snaps Hall is going to get. If he gets 10, then you are probably correct. T.O. dominates that guy.

  7. WalleyeKing
    November 12, 2008
    12:24 pm

    I like Favre tomorrow night. I think he has a decent (not great) game and gets it done by handing off to Thomas Jones most of the game.

    Jets 24
    Pats 14

  8. Aaron, Pats fan in London
    November 12, 2008
    12:35 pm

    Every game in the AFC east has turned into a big one. Who thought the division would be so close? I want to believe my patriots are going to pull one out at home, but Mangini and the Jets sometimes give us a tough time at Foxboro. I’m really liking the way Cassel has been playing, and I think Law will not be ready to make plays for the Jets this week. 23-16 Patriots.

  9. Matt Bowen
    November 12, 2008
    12:48 pm

    Aaron- I agree with you on Law, and I wouldn’t expect him to get a ton of snaps. The AFC East is going to come down to the final week.

  10. Romo4MVP
    November 12, 2008
    1:00 pm

    Gotta go with NE tomorrow night at home. I agree it is going to be ugly, but a win is a win.

    Pats 16
    Jets 9

  11. KJ85
    November 12, 2008
    1:17 pm

    Apparently there will be some showers in Foxboro at some point Thursday so I think your under prediction is spot-on.

  12. Da Coach
    November 12, 2008
    1:28 pm

    Have to go with New England against the New York Brett’s. I will take the under on that as well.

    Warner and the Cards will fall apart. They still have to play the Eagles and the Giants, so give me the under on that one too.

    Don’t know about Romo on Sunday night and don’t care about the Lions.

  13. Paul in GB
    November 12, 2008
    1:29 pm

    Matt - Grad class in journalism?

    Romo 220 yds 2tds 2 picks

    Warner MVP

    Hall 60 receptions against on the year (he will only get a couple of snaps tonight-otherwise we’re looking at the over on the year)

    Lions 4 QBs - they are resigned to their fate and will let Stanton decide his own fate for the rest of the year

    Pats 21
    Jets 13

  14. James- Boston
    November 12, 2008
    1:30 pm

    Matt -

    What do you think of the Ty Law signing? It seems strange that Mangini & co waited this far into the season to get it done. Is it just a coincidence that it happens right before the Pats - Jets game? As far as I know, the Jets haven’t had any major injuries in the secondary recently to prompt this signing… any thoughts?

  15. Matt Bowen
    November 12, 2008
    1:32 pm

    Paul- I like your call on Romo. I just don’t see him coming off the injured list and throwing for 300 against a good Redskins defense.

    As for school, a Masters in Writing and Publishing–part of the English department at DePaul here in Chicago.

  16. Chris
    November 12, 2008
    1:42 pm

    Matt -

    Since you were a part of this great rivalry, would you mind delving into it a little? As a Redskins fan, I know how rabid the fanbase gets during these two weeks…but how much does it affect the players?

    By the way, what feels better than an over-hyped Dallas team (with their Hard Knocks and SB predictions) falling flat on their dysfunctional face?

    I can’t wait for Sunday. I normally would call out of work after a late game like this…but there are so many Cowboys fans in the area, and plenty at my work, so I will be here to rub another big loss in their faces!!!

  17. Matt Bowen
    November 12, 2008
    2:01 pm

    Chris- I will get into more as the week goes on, but Skins-Cowboys games have that big time college battle atmosphere to them. It is almost as if you have pure hatred towards the Cowboy franchise when you put the Redskins helemt on, and just the opposite when you have that Star on your helemt.

  18. Paul in GB
    November 12, 2008
    2:23 pm

    Matt - is it the same with GB-Chicago or GB-Minn?

    Being more old school, I feel GB-Chicago is the bigger game. But lately people feel Minn is the bigger rival. I’m not sure why, I think it is because they are listening to the Minn fans who absolutely HATE the Pack.

    GB - Chicago is more like a Grumpy Old Men rivalry….

  19. Matt Bowen
    November 12, 2008
    2:25 pm

    I gotta go with the Minny-GB game… I think the fans dislike eachother more, just like when the Gophers play the Badgers…

    I think the Bears-Packer fans respect eachj other. Thoughts?

  20. Da Coach
    November 12, 2008
    2:26 pm

    I hate the Vikings as well, but I also agree with Matt that the Packer fans are first class when they come to Soldier. It is a great rivalry, but there isn’t as much hatred as people think.

  21. Paul in GB
    November 12, 2008
    2:36 pm

    Agree on the all around hatred between Minn and Wis - Gophers/Badgers for the Axe (this Sat-Go Red),Packers/Vikings. Used to play hockey in a club league and the games against Minn teams were the most brutal.

    The respect between Bears-Packer fans is what I meant by the Grumpy Old Men reference.

  22. Paul in GB
    November 12, 2008
    2:38 pm

    Games against our Friendly Illinios Buddies were pretty wicked, too, but not nearly as rough

  23. Aaron, Pats fan in London
    November 12, 2008
    3:44 pm

    I know its not a classic rivalry, but having been to a couple Patriots-Colts games in the past 5 years, the atmosphere there is only a small step below every time my Terrapins play the Tar Heels or Blue Devils in basketball. Its not a classic, but its quite a heated rivalry to this point. Thoughts?

  24. Paul in GB
    November 12, 2008
    4:14 pm

    It has some of the ingredients of a classic: 2 good teams that don’t particularly like each other and passionate fans. What it lacks is the guaranteed yearly matchup that comes with being division opponents. Was it heated when they both played in the old AFC East?

  25. Aaron, Pats fan in London
    November 12, 2008
    4:25 pm

    I’m too young to know the answer personally, but my Dad always tells me it was never a rivalry before Manning/Brady kept meeting the playoffs. While it lacks the ‘guaranteed’ matchup, the NFL because of marketing primetime games organizes it so they play every year. At least, they have played every year since 2003 I believe, including 3 playoff clashes.

  26. bill
    November 12, 2008
    6:57 pm

    Thursday forecast cold and wet will also help keep the score down…

  27. b roo
    November 12, 2008
    7:54 pm

    Aaron they have met because they have been #1 seeds in their divisions. No fixing of the schedule, they have been set since the realignment. Each division plays a whole division in their own conference and then the other two divisions based on previous year seeding. Colts and Pats have been #1 seeds in their divisions within the AFC so they always play, simple really.

  28. CK
    November 13, 2008
    2:25 am

    Pets players have been giving me chuckles all week. I think they really hate the Jets now too, just like their HC has always done. Ty Warren referred to Mangini as “Fredo” on a local radio station this week. He also said Ty is being Ty like Manny is being Manny. Jarvis Green talked about how Law was probably out drinking margaritas up until now. I think they really REALLY want this game. And sometimes, that’s the final edge a team needs.

  29. CK
    November 13, 2008
    2:26 am

    Obviously, I meant PATS players…bad typing. :)

  30. Chris
    November 13, 2008
    4:37 pm

    Matt,
    GOod job on your blogs, I enjoy reading them, you are awesome!

    Love watching you at kinnick..
    Is Joe still depressed around there????

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