Fantasy

Joe Fortenbaugh By Joe Fortenbaugh
Posted November 12, 2008
Email to a Friend Email to a Friend   Print This Print This  

RB Projections

Since I wrote up a more in-depth version of the “High/Low” on Tuesday, I decided to introduce a new piece today that was suggested by one of our readers (thanks Jake).  Today’s column is entitled “RB Projections.”  These are my predictions for the top five running backs for the rest of the season.  All previous statistics DO NOT count.  In addition, yesterday was a busy day here at the National Football Post, but I assure you I will answer all of the questions that you guys asked.

Top 5 Running Back Projections

1.    Matt Forte    Chicago Bears:  Forte has been an absolute stud for the Bears this season, already rushing for 713 yards (8th) and four touchdowns through nine games.  Look for the numbers to increase dramatically in the coming weeks.  Forte’s remaining schedule includes the Green Bay Packers twice (28th rushing defense), St. Louis Rams (30th), Jacksonville Jaguars (20th), New Orleans Saints (19th), and Houston Texans (23rd).  In addition, the Bears will be in a fight to the finish for a playoff spot, so there is no rest in site for the potential offensive rookie of the year.

 

2.    Steve Slaton    Houston Texans:  I’m sure this one comes as a surprise to most, but you’ve got to love the matchups Slicin’ Steve has down the stretch.  With seven games left on the schedule, five of Slaton’s opponents are ranked 20th or worse in rushing defense this season.  Showdowns with Indianapolis (24th), Cleveland (26th), Jacksonville (20th), Green Bay (28th), and Oakland (29th) highlight a second half lineup that could see Slaton surge to the top of the fantasy standings for RBs in 2008. 

 

3.     Adrian Peterson    Minnesota Vikings:  While All Day may not have as favorable a second half schedule as fantasy owners would like, there are enough opportunities in there for the NFL’s leading rusher to pile on the points.  Peterson currently leads all backs with 1,015 yards rushing on the season.  He’s one of only two RBs (Portis is the other) to average over 100 yards per start, and he currently leads the league in carries, so you know there will be no shortage of opportunities.  The steady, progressive play of QB Gus Frerotte has forced opposing defenses to respect the pass, opening up the running lanes for AP to exploit.  Upcoming games with Detroit (31st), Atlanta (21st), and Jacksonville (20th), should result in big-time performances that land Peterson in the top five. 

 

4.     Ronnie Brown    Miami Dolphins:  For me personally, Brown has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2008 season.  It isn’t too often you see a running back blow up his knee and then return to action the following year and dominate.  Brown is currently tied for second among NFL backs with 9 touchdowns.  The main reason for his stellar production can be attributed to the successful implementation of the “Wildcat” offense, which has created several opportunities for Brown to capitalize on the confusion of the opposing defense.  Miami’s remaining schedule includes matchups with Oakland (29th), St. Louis (30th), Kansas City (32nd) and San Francisco (16th), all of which should lead to very healthy statistical performances. 

 

5.     LaDainian Tomlinson    San Diego Chargers:  What’s crazy is that almost every L.T. owner in the country is disappointed with the production they have seen out of their top draft pick.  Why?  While I agree that 2008 has been considered a down year by Tomlinson standards, the Chargers running back is still the 12th ranked fantasy RB in standard scoring formats, rushing for 629 yards, catching for 254 yards, and scoring 5 total touchdowns.  The upside here is huge.  San Diego will be in a fight to the finish if they want to overtake Denver and win the AFC West.  Outside of Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, their remaining schedule includes Kansas City (32nd), Oakland (29th), Denver (27th), Indianapolis (24th), and Atlanta (21st).  The opportunities are there, and I expect L.T. to take full advantage of them. 

Fantasy Draft Guide

Remarks

21 comments for “RB Projections”

  1. anthony
    November 12, 2008
    9:10 am

    joe nice write up. do you think if i offer MJD and S Holmes for LT it is a fair offer? im trying to sell him on MJD while i can

  2. Matt
    November 12, 2008
    10:17 am

    I made two trades yesterday and after seeing this list I’m not feeling that good and who likes getting feedback after theyre done anway but what do you think? Anway league allows 1 RB, 1 Flex and 2 WR’s. I traded Forte and Vincent Jackson for Addai and Colston (my other two WR’s are B Marshall and Roddy White, my other RB is LT) with the logic being I play Colston and Addai in my flex as matchup calls because the Colts schedule looks very good. Second trade got me Jason Witten for Plaxico Burress (my other TE was Shockey who, well, yeah he sucks).

  3. Pras
    November 12, 2008
    10:19 am

    Hi Joe -

    Really cool write up.

    What do you think about LJ for the rest of year? Do you think he is a better start this week over Slaton (vs IND)?

    Thanks

    Pras

  4. Joey in H-town
    November 12, 2008
    10:23 am

    Joe,
    Nice piece. But, what about the “rookie wall”? Wont these RBs get worn down? Especially Forte, he is seeing 25 touches a game. Thanks, half way to the weekend.

  5. Joe Fortenbaugh
    November 12, 2008
    10:25 am

    Anthony: I like that deal, especially when you take a look at who is left on MJD’s schedule.

    Matt: the first trade isnt bad. Addai has a very favorable schedule down the stretch, and it looks like Colston is coming on strong. Trade #2 should work out nicely if Witten’s ribs are healed up TO doesnt destroy the Cowboys by the end of the year.

    Pras: thank you. im always glad to hear when you guys enjoy what i write. I dont like LJ for the rest of the year. Jamaal Charles is going to continue to get touches, and LJ doesnt seem to be in good favor with the coaching staff or front office. He may have another big game left, but as far as consistency goes, he doesnt provide it.

  6. Trevor
    November 12, 2008
    10:26 am

    Sweet! As an owner of Forte and Slaton, I’m pretty psyched to see them at the top of the list. How do you like Portis and Turner, my two other backs, for the rest of the season?

  7. Joe Fortenbaugh
    November 12, 2008
    10:37 am

    Joey: Good point. I agree that it could be a factor for Forte, but since Slaton still tends to split touches, he should be all right. It will be interesting to see how things develop.

    Trevor: In your case, I really hope I’m right with this projections! I like Turner for the rest of the year, he was very close to making the list. As far as Portis goes, He has a few tough matchups and a few soft matchups. The problem is his knee. His playing time could be limited

  8. Quad
    November 12, 2008
    10:49 am

    I agree it looks good for Slaton down the stretch but it will depend on the plays being called and how much they try to run Moats. Why did he have more carries than Steve in Sunday’s game? That and they have to decide that they want to actually run the ball when the game is still within reach, something the Texans haven’t been good at even though Kubiak says every week he wants to run it more than pass.

    Anyhow, it will also depend on how often Rosencopter decides to throw it straight to some of the other team’s players. When the Texans get down quick due to turnovers, they have no choice but to pass to try to get back into the game.

  9. Quad
    November 12, 2008
    10:57 am

    On a separate note, have you heard anything about Graham’s injury or whether Cadillac Williams will get any playing time this week?

    I have Kevin Smith and Graham starting currently and am otherwise very weak at RB with only three other options there: Julius Jones, Le’Ron McClain and C. Williams. I had Torain who just went down so he’s been dropped. What would be your suggestion for the two to start this week? I’m having a really tough time deciding.

    Thanks for all the info otherwise Joe! Great site you guys have here.

  10. Jacob
    November 12, 2008
    11:15 am

    Hi Joe!

    Who should i start as my 2nd RB this week?

    Ryan Grant, Jerious Norwood, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

    I want to say Grant, but he’s up against Chicago’s D

  11. Joe Fortenbaugh
    November 12, 2008
    11:50 am

    Quad: I like the Slaton analysis, good stuff. Williams may get some PT this week, but I wouldnt expect much out of him. You have to remember, he hasnt played in a “real” game in over a year.

    I’d look at Graham and Smith as of now, but wait until the end of the week to make a final decision.

    Jacob: I’d start BGE and Grant. I dont like Grants matchup either, but with Turner running wild against Denver, Im not sure how much we’ll see Norwood

  12. Patrick
    November 12, 2008
    12:53 pm

    Hi Joe,

    I was looking for your opinion on who to start between Romo and Cassel? and between Cotchery and Antonio Bryant?

    Thanks in advance.

  13. Richard
    November 12, 2008
    1:12 pm

    Hi Joe, I need two out of Forte, Addai, Lynch and Ronnie Brown. They all have good match-ups this week. I also need two out of Eddie Royal, Antonio Gates, Lee Evans and Bernard Berrian. I am leaning towards Royal and Evans. Do you think Rhodes will greatly diminish Addai’s value for the rest of the year? Thanks for the advice!

  14. chris b
    November 12, 2008
    1:14 pm

    Hey Joe,

    8 team league no ppr, QB, (3) WR’s, (2) RB’s, TE, K, Def. I’m 8-2 and clinched a playoff spot. I’m looking ahead and trying to make my team as strong as possible for weeks 15 & 16. Yesterday I traded Ward for Adai hoping that I might be able to use him in his favorable week 15 matchup. Take a look at my roster and let me know if you have any thoughts on if I might be able to improve with a trade or a pickup (k or def) for weeks 15 & 16.

    QB: Warner, Thigpen
    WR: TO, Megatron, B Marsh, Colston
    RB: Jackson, Turner, Adai, Hightower, Lewis
    TE: Winslow, Daniels
    K: Kasay
    Def: Tennessee

    Thanks!

  15. Mike Wedge
    November 12, 2008
    1:28 pm

    Yo Joe, I need two backs this week between LJ, Forte and Brown. They all have favorable match ups, but I am leaning towards Brown and Forte. What do you think?

  16. Jake
    November 12, 2008
    1:28 pm

    Great write up Joe, keep up the good work… time to make some trades for Forte!!!

  17. Joe Fortenbaugh
    November 12, 2008
    2:45 pm

    Patrick: I’d go with Romo and Cotchery, although the WR matchup is a toss up in my opinion.

    Richard: I’d go with Forte and Brown, although I expect Lynch to have a nice game. Also, I like Royal and Evans as well. I think Addai should have a nice stretch run over the second half of the season. Im sure he will lose some carries to Rhodes, but i think his value is still pretty good.

  18. Joe Fortenbaugh
    November 12, 2008
    2:47 pm

    chris b: i love your team. The only players i see on there that i think have too much downside are TO, Lewis and SJax. Jax is plagued by injuries and his team is horrible, TO has been shut down big time as of late, and Lewis is too old and slow to be effective.

    Mike Wedge: I agree with you. Id go with Forte and Brown

    Thanks jake….i appreciate the suggestion

  19. Cooper
    November 12, 2008
    4:02 pm

    Joe, love the column! I’ve got Forte, Slaton, and LT. Do I hang on to all three? I feel like I’m going to have a lot of tough starting lineup questions each week. Slaton against Indy or LT against Pitts this Sunday? Do I need to trade away one of these guys to make things easier?

  20. Jeremy
    November 12, 2008
    5:52 pm

    Joe,
    You’re right, Forte had been a beast for me so far this season no matter what D he is matched up against. One WR question for you. Playing Santana Moss for sure. Two more spots open. My options are Laverneus Coles, Vincent Jackson, Koren Robinson, or Donnie Avery. What two do you suggest given my options?

  21. Joe Fortenbaugh
    November 13, 2008
    7:29 am

    Cooper: Thanks buddy, i appreciate it. Trading one of those RBs away to strenthen your team is a good idea, but not because you want to make your decisions easier. Having three great backs is a GOOD problem to have. I’d make a deal if there are areas of your team that needs improvment. Otherwise, I’d hang on to all of them.

    Jeremy: I’d go with Coles and Jackson. They may not have the best matchups, but they have been the most consistent to date of all your options

Add a Remark

(required)

(won’t be published)