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NFL Over/Under: Playing the Odds

Every Wednesday at The National Football Post I play the NFL odds. Today: the Viking Dilemma, Sack Leaders, the Patriots’ month of December, and more.

                               

2- Wins in December for the Vikings minus the Williams Boys (UNDER)

 

Tough news for Viking fans yesterday about the suspension of Pat and Kevin Williams for a banned substance by the NFL. GREAT NEWS if you are a Bears or Packers fan. This is over 600-pounds of beef in the middle my friends, and not just any beef. The Williams’ are like prime cuts of filets at your favorite steak house when it comes to production and absolute dominance. Kevin Williams was having a Pro Bowl season, while Pat Williams was still the unmovable force he has always been in the middle. A huge loss for a team that lives and dies with the Tampa 2 defensive scheme—that requires great defensive tackles to work. Let’s take a look at their December schedule: at Detroit (WIN), at Arizona (LOSS), Atlanta (LOSS), NY Giants (LOSS). Three losses in a row to close out the season? I see it, and so do the Packer and Bears fans who read my columns. The Vikings will not win the NFC North.

 

20- NFL sack leader at end of the season (OVER)

 

Has anyone else noticed the amount of sacks guys are making this season? As we start December, nine players have over 10 total sacks, and the leaders—once again—are the linebackers. Why? The return of the 3-4 defense in places such as Dallas, Pittsburgh, Miami, etc have led to these guys coming off the edge and making plays on the quarterback. Back in the early 90’s, OLB’s led the league in sacks yearly (think LT), but offenses started progressing. Out were the 5 to 7-step drops from quarterbacks. Instead, the 3-step game became the new rage of the league. Well, defenses have combated that with edge rushers out of the 3-4 fronts, and players like DeMarcus Ware, James Harrison, Joey Porter, and Lamar Woodley are making a killing. I don’t know who is going to win this race, but I think it is from one of these four guys—most likely Harrison, who might be the best defensive player in the NFL.

 

10- NFL interception leader at the end of the season (UNDER)

 

On the flip side, interceptions are down. You would think with the high number of sacks we are seeing, that the balls would be flying all over the place in the defensive secondary, but Troy Polamalu of the Steelers leads the league with just six picks. Why? The quarterbacks. These guys (minus Kyle Orton on Sunday against the Vikes) are making better decisions with the football. Plus, quarterbacks are eating the ball more often (hence the sacks going up). Turnovers lose games in the NFL. Sacks don’t. Quarterbacks are taught that a punt is better than a turnover, so either throw it away or eat the ball, and kick it away. There is always another series coming up—unless you throw it into the hands of a guy wearing a different color jersey. Polamalu will lead the league at the end of December, but he will only get to nine.

 

4- Wins the Patriots need to get into the Playoffs (PUSH)

 

Yes, the New England Patriots, the dominance of the NFL, need to win out to make it into the tournament in January. Win on the road against Seattle and Oakland (an easy task), head home for Arizona (who can’t win outside of the desert), and then finish up the season with a trip to play the Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium (most likely in the snow). This is the game that worries me for the Patriots. Sure, the Bills won’t be playing for anything except a win against the most hated team in western New York (and the good feeling they will have drinking beer after a win), but The Ralph isn’t an easy place to play in October, let alone December—after Christmas. It is going to be cold, nasty, wet, murky, whatever terrible adjective you can think about. Plus, can Matt Cassel deliver in what might be the biggest game of the season against a familiar opponent? Well, he has to. The Pats have to do some scoreboard watching as well with Baltimore. The Ravens are going to have to play lights out football against Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Jacksonville this month. I would put my money on the Pats.

 

0- Games Plaxico Burress will play in a Giants uniform after arrest (PUSH)

 

This one is probably too easy to pick, but after the Giants placed Plax on the NFI (Non-Football Injury List), basically banishing him from the team’s practice facility, he is as good as gone. I’ll admit, I was hard on Plax earlier this week after the mystery novel detail started to leak out about his Friday night excursion into Manhattan, and I don’t plan on taking a step back from my statements. Everyone is entitled to make decisions as an adult, and those decisions carry consequences (just like not believing in Santa Claus). But, as a pro athlete, the decisions players make are scrutinized in every media outlet across the country and the world. Giants’ Head Coach Tom Coughlin is tough to deal with when you show up a minute late to a meeting. Just imagine how tough he is when you embarrass the whole team? Plax will play again, but in will never be in Giants’ blue. That train has left the station.

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Remarks

36 comments for “NFL Over/Under: Playing the Odds”

  1. Dave Miller
    December 3, 2008
    2:51 pm

    Dare I say the Vikings close the season with four losses in a row? I think this could be the week for the formerly Honolulu Blue.

  2. Sonny L.
    December 3, 2008
    2:56 pm

    Matt,
    If the Pats do make the playoffs, it’ll probably be one and done…I’ll be rooting for a rubber match against Mangina and the NY Rats…if that happens and they knock out the Rats, then it will be a successful season!

  3. Matt Bowen
    December 3, 2008
    2:59 pm

    Once you get in Sonny, you never know what can happen.

    What if Cassel gets hot again?

  4. Matt Bowen
    December 3, 2008
    3:00 pm

    Dave- I assume you will party all night at Lincoln Station following a Lions’ win this weekend.

    Maybe with Heather….

  5. Dave Miller
    December 3, 2008
    3:07 pm

    Better yet, I’m going into enemy territory Sunday. I’m donning my Culpepper Vikings jersey and going to Redmond’s–Chicago’s home to the Vikings–and I’m going to throw on my Lions stocking cap after Daunte’s first TD to Calvin.

    And I still can’t get Heather out of my mind. She’s the one, I know it.

  6. Scott M.
    December 3, 2008
    3:53 pm

    Matt - Dude, I’m hurt now. Do you honestly think that facing Houston, Jacksonville, Chicago and Detroit neither Charles Woodson nor Nick Collins will catch or pass Polamalu???

    On the Vikes, honestly wouldn’t surprise me if they dropped the Detroit game. If their court manuevers fail, they will be missing three linemen in this game (lost Robison at DE to a knee) and their middle will consist of three back-ups, one of which is hurt, and potentially a guy getting signed off the street. Not only are these guys a major step down in performance, they don’t have bodies to rotate in to keep them fresh. Allen is going to get double teamed on nearly every down.

  7. Patspsycho
    December 3, 2008
    4:05 pm

    The last game was one of the most sloppy Patriots game I’ve ever seen. Holding penalty on the kicker?? That’s definitely a new low. They need to run the table now, I think it comes down to the last game at Buffalo, and hoping for a loss from someone else.

    Pretty much not putting stock into our playoff hopes. Better to regear for next season, clean up our secondaries, start younger DB’s, solidify nickel and dime packages. Theme of next season is “Return of the King.”

  8. London_Ben
    December 3, 2008
    4:23 pm

    I’m glad you’re predicting the Pats to win out and Baltimore to choke, but as a Pats fan, I can’t quite see it happening. Not this year. The football gods have been conspiring, and decided that our reign is over. Hopefully it’s only temporary!

    Also, I agree with Dave. This is the Lions’ week. Calvin Johnson did nothing last week. Can’t see that happening two weeks in a row.

  9. BigJohn
    December 3, 2008
    4:24 pm

    How about one more over/under item:

    4-NUMBER OF TIMES THIS WEEKEND BRONCOS WILL CHEAT AGAINST CHIEFS’ NO-HUDDLE OFFENSE BY FAKING INJURIES (OVER).

    With the Jets were moving the ball last week at will against the Broncos with their no-huddle offense, Mike Shanahan blatantly cheated by instructing his players to fake injuries to slow down the no-huddle.

    This is Belichick-like cheating by Shanahan, and should be addressed by the commissioner.

    Kansas City QB Tyler Thigpen has effectively used the no-huddle this year. I predict Shanahan will manufacture at least FIVE “injuries” if the Chiefs go no-huddle this weekend.

  10. Ryan B.
    December 3, 2008
    4:46 pm

    This article just might be the midweek pick-me-up that I needed. You’ve done it again Matt.

    At least the NFC North isn’t boring or a no contest division. If someone would have told me 9-7 before the season, I probably would have taken it. Wait, of course I wouldn’t have. That’s why they play the games… Either way, go Packers.

  11. Paul in GB
    December 3, 2008
    4:50 pm

    BigJohn - Against teams that run a lot of no-huddle coaches probably instruct the players that if anything hurts and they are tired, to stay down. Granted this is playing a little fast and loose with the rules, but it could also be considered good coaching.

  12. Sonny L.
    December 3, 2008
    4:55 pm

    “Granted this is playing a little fast and loose with the rules, but it could also be considered good coaching.”

    Paul,
    Yeah, the same could be said for Belichick, but he got crucified…

    Where’s the outrage?

    Where’s Arlen Sphincter when you need him?

  13. Matt Bowen
    December 3, 2008
    4:57 pm

    BigJohn- We used to do it all the time when it came to fake injuries…. If you want, I can go more into tomorrow afternoon…

    Let me know..

  14. Matt Bowen
    December 3, 2008
    4:57 pm

    Thanks for the comments Ryan…

    Pack and Bear still in it.

  15. Paul in GB
    December 3, 2008
    5:00 pm

    Sonny L - he must be getting his name in the paper for something else this week…….

  16. Matt Bowen
    December 3, 2008
    5:02 pm

    Scott- They only have 5 throgh 12 games…. what’s to say that they get another five in the last four?

  17. Scott M.
    December 3, 2008
    5:14 pm

    Matt - not saying it’d be definite but with Rosenfels and Culpepper in the mix, I like our odds to at least to tie it up at nine.

  18. bill
    December 3, 2008
    5:23 pm

    I would love to hear more about fake injuries.

    The Pats playoff game was Sunday and they didn’t show up.

  19. BigJohn
    December 3, 2008
    6:04 pm

    The rule is that the team with the injury is penalized as follows:

    DEFENSE: Team is charged with a timeout or penalized in yards in the absence of timeouts.

    OFFENSE: Team is charged with a time out, or there is time run off the clock in the absence of timeouts.

    It may be that these particular rules only apply in the last two minutes of each half; but the antics of the Broncos last week, with five or six faked injuries, was a palpably unfair set of acts that should be addressed by the commissioner.

    Matt, if you guys did it, it wasn’t right then either. Dre Bly practically admitted after the Jets-Broncos game that he faked a shin injury. But he was careful not to go that far because . . . he knew he cheated.

  20. b roo
    December 3, 2008
    6:30 pm

    Pats are done, write them off now. D Ware will lead the league in sacks at the end of the year, no doubt, he’ll get 3 this Sunday on Ben to put him at 18 for the year. At least 2 on Eli, 2 on Flacco and then 3 on McScab. Count it.

  21. Scott M.
    December 3, 2008
    7:26 pm

    BigJohn - the penalty part only applies inside the two minute warning but one would think that just as a penalty can be assessed for throwing a ball to deliberately delay a game that a penalty could be assessed for an obviously fake injury. Matt might be able to add more on that but one would think if it’s provable that either a delay penalty or an unsportsmanlike conduct could be applied. There’s also a rarely used penalty called Palpably Unfair Act that might apply (the NFLs example is a player coming off the bench and tackling a runner that breaks free).

    Everybody should recognize that injuries get faked - that’s why they institued that any time play is stopped due to injury that the player has to leave the field for at least one play. For those who are fairly new to the sport, that didn’t used to be the case.

  22. Sonny_Corlione
    December 3, 2008
    9:16 pm

    Matt, I’m going to disagree with your over on sacks & go under; here’s why.

    With only 4 games left, you can’t possibly project anyone will have 6 sacks in that period of time and only Ware has 15, Porter has 14.5 and Harrison w/ 14. Next closest is 12.5 - Abraham - and he’s essetially out.

    Of the three “in the heat” Harrison simultaneously has the best and worst shot because Woodley, IMO, is either going to take sacks away from him or draw attention and free him up. In other words, there is no way to game plan around both players the way O Coord’s will with Porter and Ware, but you have to figure offenses are going to try to take one out on every play.

    It’s funny, seems like with two great pass ruhers, the lesser of the two ends up with more sacks because teams will take their chances more often with a 1 on 1.

  23. Sonny_Corlione
    December 3, 2008
    9:20 pm

    I’m going to say the Pats WILL win their final four games BUT not make the playoffs. The distribution of teams is so unfair right now that 9-6 can win easily in the West but 11-5 has you biting your finger nails off for a wild card!

    This Patriots team would lose easily 46-17 to last years team but oddly they should have at least one more win than they do have against either the Colts or Jets.

  24. Jerry in Texas
    December 3, 2008
    9:32 pm

    I am a Packers fan of long standing, and I’d be happy if they were the NFC North champions. However, this is like being the toughest kid in fifth grade. Not really impressive to a high school senior- just as winning the North is not that impressive in the NFL.
    Still, if it means finishing ahead of Minnesota and Chicago (and that semi-pro team in Michigan), great!
    A couple of comments on the Vikings losing to the Giants. First, if the Williams’ are playing (possible at this point, according to your site), the Vikings should be more significant. Also, since this would be the Giants last game before the playoffs, would they play all their starters all game, or rest some to get them ready for the “second season”?

  25. BigJohn
    December 3, 2008
    9:58 pm

    Scott–

    Great observation about calling a delay of game penalty for a faked injury.

    I am mindful of the rule that the faker must leave the field for one play. Big deal. The Broncos coordinated their faking last weekend so well that the faker was the guy who they wanted to replace for their nickel package anyway.

    The palpably unfair act rule is never used, but it should be. I first became familiar with the rule in connection with the 1995 NFC championship game.

    In that game, Antonion Freeman of the Packers was about to score on a punt return when the Cowboy punter (I think it was John Jett) stuck out his grubby hand and pulled Freeman down by the face mask. Freeman would have scored, yet the ref (none other than Ed Hochuli, a Cowboy fan) merely called a face mask penalty.

  26. dan
    December 3, 2008
    11:20 pm

    It’s always nice to see the Vikings choke, but I really don’t care if the Pack goes to the playoffs unless they get their crap together and learn how to play to their potential and win big games. Right now, they look scared when games are on the line, coaches and players.

    Matt, thanks for letting us know that fake injuries happen. It’s too bad that it does, but good to know the truth of the matter. I thought only the classless Buddy Ryan told his players to do that. You’d think players and coaches would respect the game a little more, but…oh well.

  27. Scott M.
    December 4, 2008
    12:01 am

    Wow - “respect the game a little more”??? Granted, my personal bias is for defense but in regards to respect for the game, how is “faking an injury” any different from:

    Spiking the ball to stop the clock

    Hard counts to draw the defense offsides, especially in situations where you have no intention of running a play

    Throwing the ball away to avoid a sack

    Deliberately taking a delay of game penalty to give your punter more room to pin your opponent

    None of these are within the spirit of the game - each is a deliberate manipulation of the rules to try to gain an advantage over ones opponent.

    The rules are intentionally stacked against a defense - there was a game earlier in the year where a defense was called for encroachment because a legitimately injured defender couldn’t make it across the line in a hurry-up situation. Not only was the clock stopped (helping the offense), but a 5-yard penalty was assessed as well and the guy was really hurt but he didn’t want to blow a timeout. As long as things remain stacked against defenses, there will continue to be attempts to try to even that out.

    If we really want to “respect the game”, then we need to quit stacking the rules against defenders.

  28. The Plucky Dork
    December 4, 2008
    8:25 am

    Scott, I think faking an injury is definitely different and more scorn-deserving.

    In spiking the ball or throwing it away you lose a down you’d rather have.

    The hard count has to work within the time frame allowed by the play clock.

    Your opponent can always decline the delay of game penalty.

    Injury faking is too tough to police by the league it’s up to the players and coaches of a given team to decide the respect for the game they’ll show in each contest.

  29. Matt Bowen
    December 4, 2008
    8:28 am

    Scott- I hear you on that… It doesn’t disrespect the game.

    Since this thread is still going I am going to write a player’s journal about it later today…

    It will all be in good fun, but I have seen guys take a “dive” on the field to stop the clock in the last 4 minutes of a game countless times.

    It will be some good stuff

    -Matt

  30. Paul in GB
    December 4, 2008
    10:05 am

    Looking forward to it, Matt

  31. Scott M.
    December 4, 2008
    10:59 am

    Plucky - the point is in each case, it is a flagrant manipulation of the rules specifically to work around the intended design of the game. But also remember that when guys get seriously winded, they occasionally will fall over, become disoriented, etc which is the whole point of a hurry-up offense. It is not safe for them to play in this state and by rules, they should be afforded the opportunity to get off the field for their own safety and the safety of others. It’s not disrespectful of the game.

  32. BigJohn
    December 4, 2008
    11:24 am

    Scott–

    All of the items you cite are within the rules. I agree with you that some of these things should not be allowed, but they are, regrettably, within the rules.

    Faking an injury, on the other hand, is not within the rules. I think your suggestion of calling a 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty might be the best way to handle these situations. The Broncos got away with murder in this regard last week.

  33. Jer
    December 4, 2008
    11:44 am

    That “two-minute drill’ and “no-huddle” can really gas a player.

    IF taking a “dive” could be proved, by an official, in between plays, in real time perhaps it would be called. “Palpably Unfair Act” is quite subjective, interpreting it on the field and then taking the heat for it afterwards is probably something the officials would like to avoid.

    On a related note, hockey took a stand a few years ago in regards to “diving”.

  34. The Plucky Dork
    December 4, 2008
    12:09 pm

    Thanks, Matt. Also looking forward to your post.

  35. Da Coach
    December 4, 2008
    12:11 pm

    Faking Injuries is part of the game guys

  36. The Plucky Dork
    December 4, 2008
    12:15 pm

    Is it the glorious part we can all be proud of and instill in our kids, Coach?

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