One word that is thrown around more than any other on draft day has to be "value." NFL draft boards are put together to help determine not only the ranking of a prospect, but also how many prospects are worthy of being selected in each of the seven rounds. So when NFL teams discuss value they are not necessarily talking about the top 32 players on their board, but instead, they are breaking down the prospects into different tiers, which helps them determine just how many players are worthy of a first round grade. Below is The National Football Post's first value chart for the 2009 NFL Draft.
VALUE CHART
Tier 1 (Elite Prospects)
Michael Crabtree: WR, Texas Tech
Aaron Curry: OLB, Wake Forest
Eugene Monroe: OT, Virginia
B.J. Raji: DT, Boston College
Malcolm Jenkins: CB, Ohio State
Tier 2 (High First-Round Caliber)
Andre Smith: OT, Alabama
Jason Smith: OT, Baylor
Mark Sanchez: QB, USC
Brian Orakpo: DE/OLB, Texas
Matthew Stafford: QB, Georgia
Everette Brown: Florida State
Michael Oher: OT, Ole Miss
Knowshon Moreno: RB, Georgia
Tier 3 (First-Round Caliber)
Peria Jerry: DT, Ole Miss
D.J. Moore: CB, Vanderbilt
Chris Wells: RB Ohio State
Brian Cushing: OLB, USC
LeSean McCoy: RB, Pittsburgh
Jeremy Maclin: WR, Missouri
Brandon Pettigrew: TE, Oklahoma State
Rey Maualuga: ILB, USC
Percy Harvin: RB/WR, Florida
Alphonso Smith: CB, Wake Forest
Aaron Maybin: OLB/DE, Penn State
Clay Matthews: OLB, USC
Robert Ayers: DE, Tennessee
Tier 4 (Late First-Round/Early Second-Round Caliber)
James Laurinaitis: ILB, Ohio State
Vontae Davis: CB, Illinois
Eben Britton: OT, Arizona
William Beatty: OT, Connecticut
Darrius Heyward-Bey: WR, Maryland
Sean Smith: CB/FS, Utah
Hakeem Nicks: WR, North Carolina
Michael Johnson: DE/OLB, Georgia Tech
Josh Freeman: QB, Kansas State
Coye Francies: CB, San Jose State
Sen’Derrick Marks: DT, Auburn
Louis Delmas: FS, Western Michigan
Tier 5 (Second-Round Caliber)
Larry English: OLB/DE, Northern Illinois
Tyson Jackson: DE, LSU
Alex Mack: C, California
Shonn Greene: RB, Iowa
Max Unger: C. Oregon
Clint Sintim: OLB, Virginia
Derrick Williams: WR, Penn State
Chase Coffman: TE, Missouri
Kenny Britt: WR, Rutgers
Duke Robinson: OG, Oklahoma
James Casey: TE, Rice
Juaquin Iglesias: WR, Oklahoma
Eric Wood: C, Louisville
Jarron Gilbert: DT, San Jose State
David Veikune: DE, Hawaii
Shawn Nelson: TE, Southern Miss
Tyronne Green: OG, Auburn
Tier 6 (Second/Third-Round Caliber)
Darius Butler: CB, Connecticut
Brian Robiskie: WR, Ohio State
Patrick Chung: SS, Oregon
Paul Kruger: DE/OLB, Utah
Jairus Byrd: CB, Oregon
Donald Brown: RB, Connecticut
Herman Johnson: OG, LSU
Evander Hood: DT, Missouri
Javon Ringer: RB, Michigan State
Pat White: QB, West Virginia
Connor Barwin: DE/TE, Cincinnati
Jonathan Luigs: C, Arkansas
Jared Cook: TE, South Carolina
Darry Beckwith: ILB, LSU
Mike Mickens: CB, Cincinnati
Fili Moala: DT, USC
Asher Allen: CB, Georgia
Chip Vaughn: SS, Wake Forest
Nate Davis: QB, Ball State
Tier 7 (Third-Round Caliber)
Jamon Meredith: OT, South Carolina
Victor Harris: CB, Virginia Tech
Mitch King: DT, Iowa
Tyrone McKenzie: OLB, South Florida
Ron Brace: DT, Boston College
Troy Kropog: OT, Tulane
Derek Pegues: FS, Mississippi State
Marcus Freeman: OLB, Ohio State
Antoine Caldwell: C, Alabama
Fenuki Tupou: OT, Oregon
Jeremiah Johnson: RB, Oregon
Trevor Canfield: OG, Cincinnati
Rashad Johnson: FS, Alabama
Augustus Parrish: OT, Kent State
Vance Walker: DT, Georgia Tech
Tier 8 (Third/Fourth-Round Caliber)
William Moore: FS, Missouri
Louis Murphy: WR, Florida
Domonique Johnson: CB, Jackson State
Cody Brown: DE/OLB, Connecticut
Jarett Dillard: WR, Rice
Scott McKillop: MLB, Pittsburgh
Cary Harris: CB, USC
Andre Brown: RB, N.C. State
Zack Follett: OLB, California
Ricky Jean-Francois: DT, LSU
Sherrod Martin: FS, Troy
Corvey Irvin: DT, Georgia
Tier 9 (Fourth-Round Caliber)
Rashad Jennings: RB, Liberty
Phil Loadholt: OT, Oklahoma
Kraig Urbik: OG, Wisconsin
Michael Hamlin: SS, Clemson
Captain Munnerlyn: CB, South Carolina
Alex Magee: DT, Purdue
Rhett Bomar: QB, Sam Houston
Louie Sakoda: K, Utah
Emanuel Cook: SS, South Carolina
Travis Beckum: TE, Wisconsin
David Bruton: FS, Notre Dame
James Davis: RB, Clemson
Tier 10 (Impact Late-Round Prospects)
Mike Thomas: WR, Arizona
A.Q. Shipley: C, Penn State
Cedric Peerman: RB, Virginia
Jason Watkins: OT, Florida
Kyle Moore: DE, USC
Michael Bennett: DE, Texas A&M
Clinton McDonald: DT, Memphis
Mortty Ivy: OLB, West Virginia
Joseph Frantz: ILB, Florida Atlantic
Stephen Hodge: SS, TCU
Thomas Morstead: P, Southern Methodist
Graham Gano: K, Florida State
Kenny McKinley: WR, South Carolina
Graham Harrell: QB, Texas Tech
FINALLY!!!! showing some love to Gano and Sakoda.
Can we also get a look into draft tendencies of teams in early rounds...like we all know the Broncos never go RB, Eagles draft heavy on the O & D lines... what do other teams do? might make a good article.
Wes, seeing as you do not rate Andre Smith in your "first tier".. then who is the "safest" pick for the Lions with the #1? In your mock dated perhaps the 24th, you list Smith as the Lions choice. Do you still project them "reaching" for him?
Surprised that Eugene Monroe is your top rated OT. I read news that he was inconsistent towards the last half of the season & that he doesn't stick that long on his blocks. (Esp compared to Jason Smith.)
I'm guessing the risk of Andre Smith needing to control his weight every year dropped him + he needs more work on his pass pro vs speed rushers. And with Oher his knock is he's had lapses in his work ethic & at times loses focus in his play.
I'd be crazy happy if Oher fell to us (SF) at the #10 pick. Awesome work Wes! Great stuff.
To me, the safest pick the Lions could make would be Aaron Curry. They need to take a page from Bill Parcells and build the team first along the OL and defensive front 7. Take Curry first and come back at 20 looking for OL help.
Great list Wes. Do you cover just the draft, or is it possible you could do some list like this, or maybe by position for the upcoming Free Agents?
Nice call MMcFargas....I 2nd that!!
It would be great to get your analysis Wes on the top FA's coming up & which team you think has the best chance of landing these marquee players. Also an idea is if you could state the top 1-3 teams in your opinion where they would be a good fit. In addition to the premium players you could also list those who you think would be of good value who could be solid contributors to a new team.
My diamond in the rough is Cecil Newton center @ TSU. Four year starter and has run an unofficial time of 4.89 / 40 yds @6'3 & 300. PLayed w/Dominique Rogers-Cromartie (Arizona Cardinals)
I think D.J. Moore needs to be in Tier 2. If he was 6ft instead of 5'9" he'd be a top 5 pick. He's a faster Ronde Barber with elite punt return skills
Hey Guys,
Dont' you worry about Free Agency, Mike has that covered!
I am just here for your every Draft need.
I find this group of prospects in Tier 4 very intriguing: Vontae Davis, William Beatty, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Sean Smith, and Michael Johnson. They all have freakish comdination of size and speed for their respective position but lacking impressive production at the college level. If they get coached up, they could turn out to be All-pro. Or they could be busts.
Wea, Hate to harp on it... but can you reveal your current thoughts on #1 overall since A. Smith seems to be dropping?
I think you're sleeping on Travis Beckum. If that kid could stay healthy, he's a 2nd round value without a doubt. A team like the Cards should look at him.
Mark Learmont:
Still a long way to go, but the more I watch tape on Smith the more I see a RT. He reminds me so much of Shawn Andrews from Arkansas and now guard for the Eagles. Weight will always be an issue with him and I am starting to think the Lions want the SAFEST guy possible. That is likely Eugene Monroe.
Eric from Manitowoc, WI:
If Beckum can ever learn to block the chair I am sitting in I will be amazed. HE is a natural pass catcher and should find his way as a pass catching H-back. However, his lack of power and strength at the point of attack just doesn't do it for me. Maybe some team falls in love with him and takes him a lot earlier then most scouts think but I see him as a mid round guy.
I know it's easy to miss people but where do you rank Ellison
Rule # 1: find a QB
Rule # 2: find someone who can get to the QB
Rule # 3: find someone who can protect the QB
This ain't brain surgery gentlemen.
Wes, this is great insight. I live in Vegas and am especially intrigued by the potential of Sean Smith from Utah. Would it be a reach for a team to take him in the 15-25 range of round 1? How does he grade out in your film study? I'd love to see what a coach like Belichick could get out of Smith.
U shld add a sleeper category to your value chart and include therein
Jerome Boyd, OLB, Oregon &
Demetrius Crawford, RB Montana St. I'll send you film on both. Keeping you ahead of the game..Yo Man ~!
WHERE'S HENRY MELTON!?!?!
SHOULD DEFINITELY BE AN IMPACT LATE ROUND PICK.
Where in your right mind would you place Graham Harrell as a later pick than Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis, and Pat White? NFL QB's throw the ball they don't run! You can't say system QB, look at his numbers. Maybe Tech just knows how to protect a QB from getting sacked. That's the system that the NFL doesn't understand.
Hey James Sims,
The client section on your website is way out of date regarding players / teams / etc... I suggest getting your hosting company some updates.
Rashad Johnson is the next Ed Reed he will be picked in the 1st round no later than #23
Would anyone be interested in doing some sort of mock draft contest? Pick the first round only and do 5 points for exactly in the spot they were drafted and 3 points if your within 1 spot and 1 point if your within 2-3 spots. ?? ANyone up for that?
Heard this, this morning. Could be surprising on some fronts. Patriots are considering trading Cassel to the Jaguars for their #8 pick and #72 pick overall. The jags are no longer sold on Garard. The Pats would be looking at drafting CB/S Malcolm Jenkins if available(highly unlikely) if not they will be looking at taking Maualuga, Curry, or Monroe, whomever is still available.
travis beckum is trully a 2nd round pick
If I'm not mistaken, you forgot about fullbacks. I'll throw one in there: Quinn Johnson, FB, LSU (Tier 10)
Good job, but you have Jason Watkins (OT, UF) way too low.
The reason Graham Herrell is rated behind those other QBs is because he has a much less strong arm than the others. He can be very accurate, but not on things like deep outs. He also has not taken snaps under center. He is a Andre Ware, Akili Smith type of QB.
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Jan 31, 2009
10:07 AM
Wow great stuff Wes, no one else does this! It's like an NFL war room or something. Love it