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2010 NFL Draft prop bet breakdown

A look at some of the most beatable first-round prop bets on the market. Joe Fortenbaugh

Print This April 21, 2010, 05:00 PM EST

The start of the 2010 NFL regular season may be months away, but if you’re itching for a little action — and don’t want to grind your way through nine innings of baseball — look no further than the first round of the NFL Draft.

I recently spoke with Dave Staley of Sportsbook.com, who said their website just started hyping the draft three years ago and got such a great response that they’ve continued to do so.

While Sportsbook.com increased its action by almost 200 percent this season, Staley told me that bettors tend to have the edge when it comes to draft props.

“We are still looking for our first winning draft,” Staley said. “The bettors bang us up pretty bad every year. This is mostly due to the fact that it is so hard to keep on top of this stuff. You’d almost need a guy solely dedicated to the draft, which isn’t plausible. But that’s OK. As long as our customers keep craving it, we’ll continue to offer plenty of props.”

Sportsbook.com also offers a “mini-mock draft” contest in which a cash prize is awarded to the guy who accurately predicts the most picks in the top 10.

Armed with the idea that we can take down the sports books as our motivation, let’s take a look at some of the of the best prop bets floating around the Internet and determine which side of the action you should be on:

LOCK ‘EM UP…

PROP:   Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One (6.5)

Over 6.5 (-240)

Under 6.5 (+180)

Where to book it: Sportsbook.com

The Bet: OVER

Analysis: You’re not going to make a killing taking the over at -240, but you are going to make some cash without breaking a sweat. Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung and Iowa’s Bryan Bulaga will be off the board in the top 10. In addition, the Raiders (eighth pick) and Bills (ninth pick) are both in the market for offensive linemen, meaning you have the possibility of watching four blockers get picked in the first nine selections.

If that wasn’t enough of a selling point, try this: Florida center Maurkice Pouncey, Oklahoma tackle Trent Williams and Idaho guard Mike Iupati are all sure-fire first-round picks as well. Throw Rutgers’ Anthony Davis (who could get picked by San Francisco at No. 17), Maryland’s Bruce Campbell and USC’s Charles Brown into the mix and you’re looking at eight linemen who could land in the first 32 picks.

PROP:   Will Golden Tate be selected in the first round?

Yes: +220

No: -300

Where to book it: Sportsbook.com

The Bet: NO

Analysis: There’s no need to go into much detail on this one. The Notre Dame wideout is not getting drafted in the first round. Period.

Outside of Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant, there isn’t another wide receiver on the board who’s a lock to land in the first round. Even if another wideout hears his name called Thursday, it’s more likely to be Illinois’ Arrelious Benn or Georgia Tech’s Demaryius Thomas than Tate. The odds on this prop aren’t great, but it’s still easy money.

PROP:   Who will be drafted first? (Jerry Hughes vs. Eric Norwood)

Jerry Hughes (TCU): -170

Eric Norwood (South Carolina): +130

Where to book it: Sportsbetting.com

The Bet: JERRY HUGHES

Analysis: There has been absolutely no buzz about Norwood cracking the first round. On the flip side, there are a few potential landing spots for Hughes, with Atlanta and New Orleans among the possible suitors.

If both players manage to fall out of the first, expect to hear Hughes’ name called very early Friday night during the second round. He has the ability to play as a rush end in a 4-3 or outside linebacker in a 3-4. Norwood is more limited, which is why the TCU standout gets the nod.

THEY MAY NOT BE LOCKS, BUT I STILL LOVE ‘EM…

PROP:   Who will be drafted first? (Jared Odrick vs. Brian Price)

Jared Odrick (Penn State): -120

Brian Price (UCLA): -120

Where to book it: Sportsbetting.com

The Bet: JARED ODRICK

Analysis: I was surprised to see Odrick and Price listed with the same odds in this head-to-head showdown. The beauty of picking Odrick is that he’s on virtually every team’s draft board due to his versatility. The former Nittany Lion can play the five-technique in a 3-4 defense or the three-technique in a 4-3 scheme. In addition, there’s some interest in Odrick’s services coming from the Pittsburgh Steelers (18th pick), New England Patriots (22nd pick) and Baltimore Ravens (25th pick).

Price is a three-technique, one-gapper who’s better suited for a Cover 2 defense, meaning he’s more limited than Odrick in the type of defensive scheme he can play. What that basically means is that Odrick is likely to have more suitors than Price. In addition, the UCLA defensive tackle could possibly fall out of Thursday’s first round, while Odrick is a virtual lock to hear his name called before the end of the night.

PROP:   Who will be drafted first? (Jason Pierre-Paul vs. Derrick Morgan)

Jason Pierre-Paul (South Florida): +200

Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech): -300

Where to book it: Sportsbetting.com

The Bet: JASON PIERRE-PAUL

Analysis: This is one of my favorite props of the entire draft for two reasons. First, you’re getting great odds on Pierre-Paul at +200. Second, JPP is arguably the hottest name in the league at the moment.

Rumors are flying that several teams, including the Philadelphia Eagles (two second-round picks) and New England Patriots (three second-round picks), are looking to move up to land the athletic freak from South Florida. Additionally, several top-12 teams (Washington, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Miami) are looking to trade down in order to acquire more selections.

Morgan is a great talent who will likely land in the first half of the draft, but with several teams itching to make a move for JPP, he’s the pick.

PROP:   Will Sean Weatherspoon be selected in the first round?

Yes: -500

No: +350

Where to book it: Sportsbook.com

The Bet: NO

Analysis: The Missouri linebacker could very well be the beneficiary of basic supply and demand principles. Teams need an inside linebacker, and after Alabama’s Rolando McClain, Weatherspoon is arguably the next best player on the board.

However, I’ve talked to two league scouts over the past month who aren’t giving Weatherspoon a first-round grade and wouldn’t take him that early if their jobs depended on it. In addition, the odds of him falling (+350) make this a very juicy prop. The public loves this guy in the first round, but most of the league appears to differ in opinion.

If you’re looking for something a little safer, you can go to sportsbetting.com and take the over/under on Weatherspoon’s draft position at 25.5 (OVER is +125).

A FEW MORE I’M EXPECTING TO HIT…

PROP:   Who will be drafted first? Bryan Bulaga (-220) or Anthony Davis (+160)?

Where to book it: Sportsbetting.com

The Bet: BRYAN BULAGA

PROP:   Over/Under Defensive Tackles taken in the first round: 4.5

Odds: Over (+200) Under (-260)

Where to book it: Sportsbook.com

The Bet: OVER (Suh, McCoy, Williams, Odrick, Cody and possibly Price)

ROLLING THE DICE AND SHOCKING THE WORLD…

PROP:   Russell Okung Draft Position

Odds: 2nd or lower (+400), 3rd (+1000), 4th (-500), 5th (+800), 6th (+400)

Where to book it: Sportsbook.com

The Bet: 5th (+800)

Analysis: Don’t be shocked if the Redskins take Trent Williams at No. 4 and the Chiefs grab Okung at No. 5. Not saying it’s going to happen, but at +800, I’m willing to roll the dice.

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

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