A look at how we measure prospects on potential. Wes Bunting
With draft season just about to kick into full swing, the National Football Post announces our initial prospect grading scale for the 2010 NFL Draft. Today, we start with our quarterback evaluations, using our own numerical grading scale and focusing on evaluating prospects’ potential in terms of “starter caliber,” “dirty starter caliber,” “possible starter caliber,” “backup/depth caliber” and “free agent caliber.” The full grading scale is listed below with explanations of each grade.
The quarterback class looks thin in terms of potential bona fide starting talent, but there’s an intriguing group of prospects who possess starting-caliber skill sets. With time and development, they could make a run at a starting gig down the line.
Here’s our initial look at the 2010 quarterback class:
NFP Numerical College Grading Scale
Starter Caliber
8.0 Starts first game as a pro…a prospect who possesses rare physical attributes that have an obvious impact on the game…will instantly become one of the best players at his position in the NFL.
7.5 Becomes a starter in his rookie season…a prospect who possesses physical attributes that will create mismatches and have an obvious impact on the game… will become a premier player in the league.
7.0 Starts in first game as a pro…a prospect who possesses physical attributes that will create mismatches vs. most opponents…a featured player on a team.
6.9 Becomes a starter during his rookie year…a prospect who possesses physical attributes that will create mismatches vs. most opponents…a featured player on team.
6.8 Becomes a starter during his rookie year…becomes a solid NFL player who has no real weakness…can’t be exploited or consistently taken out of games.
Dirty Starter Caliber
6.7 Contributes first year and starts second year…must be able to get on the field and make a contribution as a rookie…expected to start his second year in the league.
6.6 Contributes first year but may take time to become a starter…has the ability to become a starter and will be expected to assume a starting role.
6.5 Clean player who is inconsistent in his play due to character, alertness or competitiveness…has all the physical tools needed to become a starter…if he overcomes his deficiencies, he will be a star in the league…if he doesn’t, he’ll be a complete failure…NO middle ground.
Possible Starter Caliber
6.4 Has one deficient area of his playing skills or physical attributes but should be able to overcome it and contribute to a team…has the potential to become a starter based on his abilities.
6.3 Has one deficient area of his playing skills or his physical attributes that will be difficult to overcome but will contribute in spite of it…has the potential to become a starter based on his abilities.
6.2 Has one deficient area of his physical attributes that he can never overcome but has been productive and has the potential to be a starter in the NFL in spite of his shortcomings.
6.1 A clean prospect who will need time and development in order to contribute…physically, this player has all the tools to be a starter in the NFL but has not yet developed the necessary skills due to level of competition, offensive or defensive schemes, injury, grades or lack of playing time…true developmental player who has the potential to become a starter.
6.0 An underachiever who has exhibited a deficiency in some area of his play...has the abilities to become a starter but hasn’t played up to them…has a problem with football instincts, character and/or competitiveness…boom-or-bust prospect.
Backup/Depth Caliber
5.9 Has a deficient area of his playing or physical skills that he should overcome and contribute as a backup and spot player only.
5.8 Has a deficient area of his playing of physical skills that will be difficult to overcome but will contribute as a backup and spot player only.
5.7 Has a deficient area of his physical skills that cannot be overcome but has been productive and can contribute as a backup and spot player only.
Free Agent Category
5.6 Free agent with speed, character and competitiveness.
5.5 Free agent with athletic ability, character and competitiveness.
5.4 Free agent with size, character and competitiveness.
5.3 Free agent at a high level of competition with either size, speed or athletic
ability.
5.2 Free agent with size or speed.
5.1 Free agent with character and competitiveness.
5.0 Camp body.
4.0 Reject…no qualities for professional football.
Follow me on Twitter: WesBunting
Love the breakdown of each grade and its so much better then the "good" and "bads" that most websites give us without thought to their potential or outlook in the NFL.
This is why I come to the NFP
IMO McCoy and Bradford should list side for the fact they played the same conference(similar systems) and each is coming off injury. That list being on the cusp of the top tier, and not the front of line.
Pike should be higher.
Kafka belongs in the Tebow/Snead grouping, perhaps ahead of them. He had 35 points in his bowl game, take care of the ball in the red zone, the game was his to win. The three are rough for making a full pro transition, Kafka perhaps leads that group in those regards as well. He has a similar kind of athleticism.
this is good info but here is a tip for you:
in excel go under preferences
then go to error checking
then the top box on the left that has enable background error checking undo that & your green arrows in the boxes will be gone.
that way when you .pdf or whatnot to have it hosted it'll look cooler.
however your scouting is quality.
Good stuff. For comparison, can you tell us what your rankings were for last years top 3 QBs? And who has received your best QB rating ever?
Thanks!
I do hope Lyle Moevao doesn't read this!!
"4.0 - Reject…no qualities for professional football. "
Seems kind of harsh. I think it would have been nicer to just not have him on the list at all.
Wes: After all the Div 1's are there any Div II qb's worth looking at?
Good list except for Bradford and Tebow...the whole class looks like back-ups at best...there will probably be one or two surprises that don't fit the numbers and scouting reports...maybe Pike, LeFevour, Snead or McCoy
Bradford is a China Doll...I call him AFLAC...look at the film...watched him extensively when he wasn't hurt...when he's clean he's accurate...against every Big Boy defense he faced he get's hurt and can't work...passes look like ducks...
Tebow can't even throw...he makes Vince Young look like Troy Aikman...ahead of Snead? Seriously...this is to play in the NFL...Dude get real...funny they call Tebow a "winner"...McCoy won more...cue Flava Flav on Tebow...
I would buy LeFevour cheap...
Wes,
I like the format. It gives draft readers more information on the value of each prospect.
Once again, great job NFP
I would have Z. Robinson, Kafka, Lefovour and Snead all ahead of The T-Boy. Plus , Tebow does not have the 'tools' to be a starter...he may develop in 3-4 years, but I doubt it.
Browns should grab Spiller(RB) out of Clemson first...then grab LEFEVOUR(Cent Mich) who is 2nd on my list by far! Have you seen this guy run and play??? I am a Fordham Grad...Skelton is nowhere near the finish product LEFEVOUR is. I would take LEFEVOUR over Tebow...he will have a better pro career. I said last year that the Browns should have taken SANCHEZ at 5(he will have a better pro career than Anderson or Quinn...NEITHER of which should be starting on a COMPETENT NFL team!!!
What are the major weaknesses for Tony Pike? He seems (from a UC fan's perspective) like a solid prospect. Good mobility, accurate passer, strong arm. Is it that he threw too much from the shotgun? Probably not, seeing as one could have a similar criticism of Bradford.
"I would buy LeFevour cheap..."
LL stands to make a lot on this idea. He looked really sharp working with a new team.
Skelton @ #3??? He wasn't even the best QB in the Patriot League! Dominic Randolph of Holy Cross was.
Why the props for Skelton? Certainly, that pick is a bit of an outlier among your draft cognescenti brethren.
Thanks for the support Mom. Looks like I won't be moving out anytime soon. I so wanted to be camp fodder. My dreams are shattered. I will find you Buntbreath.
Thanks for the support Mom. Looks like I won't be moving out anytime soon. I so wanted to be camp fodder. My dreams are shattered. I will find you Buntbreath.
Based on this, neither Clausen nor Bradford is a "franchise" QB, or even close, & the Rams would be reaching seriously to take either #1. Which has been my opinion all along, although as a Tampa fan, I wish otherwise.
In my opinion, the only quarterback with a chance of playing significant minutes within two years is Jimmy Clausen. And this is coming from a person who has never been a big fan of the Clausen klan. I believe his biggest asset is his toughness and competitiveness. Imagine some of these other quarterback playing behind Notre Dame's offensive line and Coach Weiss's play calling. Yikes!
For any team that thinks of drafting Sam Bradford, I suggest they trade that high pick to Baltimore in exchange for Troy Smith, and a bevy of Baltimore's draft picks. Given that that team keeps its high second round pick, that team will have a draft to build upon.
Not to belittle the effort, I know a lot of work went into this, but seems like half an article when it's just numbers. Big differences between all those 6.1's.
Luke L - since you can't count to three (3), I discount everything else you posted. China Doll it says here. Better get that boy some AFLAC.
Tony pike = sucks
Wes, do you have historical data for previous NFL prospects published anywhere on the site?
I'd like to see how Sam Bradford's 6.8 matches up to, for example, Matt Stafford and Matt Ryan from years past.
Thanks!
Great job on going out a limb with a few prospects. It's good to see guys like Skelton and Kafka get love, because they really have pro potential and not many people know about them.
I preferably like Zac Robinson more than you do because from what I've seen of Senior Bowl practices and in games, I think he can make a transition to a pro style offense and with his movement and under rated arm strength, he could succeed.
Also, I hesitate to call ANY prospects a "reject" simply because guys Like Kurt Warner and Tony Romo might have gotten that grade on your scale, and they didn't turn out like that. But, I get what you mean.
Anyways, I like your list and the grading scale is similar to mine, and I think yours works very well. It's good you explain the scale in detail as well.
Feb 04, 2010
01:54 PM
Wesley,
You'd better move Rev. Tebow up to number one on your list.
And boost Senator Tebow's grade to 14.0.
Otherwise, you're going to lose your job at The National Football Post.
Why, son, it's downright un-Amerikin (sic) not to consider FOX News Analyst Tebow the greatest football player ever to step onto the field.
You do otherwise, boy, and Roger Ailes will OWN you.