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Draft averages: offense

Can the past help us predict what players and positions will be selected? National Football Post

Print This April 05, 2010, 03:00 PM EST

As we’ve learned in the past, there’s nothing scientific about the NFL draft. Every year, talent evaluators throughout the country -- including me -- whiff on prospects despite spending hundreds of hours on research.

But is it possible to predict the outcome of the draft based on past averages? Today, the National Football Post takes a look at the past 10 drafts and how often each position was selected in the first three rounds. Then we look at the prospects who are likely to be selected at each spot and try to come up with a list of players you can expect to see picked in the first three rounds.

Remember, this is not a mock draft or a list of players we think are going to be selected in each round. It’s an application used to take the average number of prospects selected at each position in the first three rounds throughout the past 10 years and apply it to the 2010 NFL Draft.

Note: All averages are rounded up to whole numbers and are based on the past 10 drafts.

Quarterback

Average number of quarterbacks selected in the first round: 3

2010 projected first round quarterbacks:

Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
Tim Tebow, Florida

Average number of quarterbacks selected in the second round: 1

2010 projected second-round quarterbacks:

Colt McCoy, Texas

Average number of quarterbacks selected in the third round: 2

2010 projected third-round quarterbacks:

Tony Pike, Cincinnati
John Skelton, Fordham

Running back

Average number of running backs selected in the first round: 3

2010 projected first round running backs:

C.J. Spiller, Clemson
Ryan Mathews, Fresno State
Jahvid Best, California

Average number of running backs selected in the second round: 3

2010 projected second-round running backs:

Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech
Toby Gerhart, Stanford
Montario Hardesty, Tennessee

Average number of running backs selected in the third round: 3

2010 projected third-round running backs:

Ben Tate, Auburn
Joe McKnight, USC
Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State

Wide receiver

Average number of wide receivers selected in the first round: 4

2010 projected first round wide receivers:

Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech
Arrelious Benn, Illinois
Golden Tate, Notre Dame

Average number of wide receivers selected in the second round: 5

2010 projected second-round wide receivers:

Brandon LaFell, LSU
Damian Williams, USC
Carlton Mitchell, South Florida
Dexter McCluster, Mississippi
Jordan Shipley, Texas

Average number of wide receivers selected in the third round: 4

2010 projected third round wide receivers:

Taylor Price, Ohio
Mike Williams, Syracuse
Eric Decker, Minnesota
Marcus Easley, Connecticut

Tight ends

Average number of tight ends selected in the first round: 1

2010 projected first-round tight end:

Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma

Average number of tight ends selected in the second round: 2

2010 projected second-round tight ends:

Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
Aaron Hernandez, Florida

Average number of tight ends selected in the third round: 2

2010 projected third-round tight ends:

Jimmy Graham, Miami
Ed Dickson, Oregon

Offensive tackles

Average number of offensive tackles selected in the first round: 3

2010 projected first-round offensive tackles

Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
Trent Williams, Oklahoma
Bryan Bulaga, Iowa

Average number of offensive tackles selected in the second round: 3

2010 projected second-round offensive tackles:

Anthony Davis, Rutgers
Charles Brown, USC
Bruce Campbell, Maryland

Average number of offensive tackles selected in the third round: 2

2010 projected third-round offensive tackles:

Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale
Jason Fox, Miami

Interior offensive linemen

Average number of interior offensive linemen selected in the first round: 1

2010 projected first-round interior offensive linemen:

Mike Iupati, Idaho

Average number of interior offensive linemen selected in the second round: 3

2010 projected second-round interior offensive linemen:

Maurkice Pouncey, Florida
Rodger Saffold, Indiana
John Jerry, Mississippi

Average number of interior offensive linemen selected in the third round: 3

2010 projected third-round interior offensive linemen:

Matt Tennant, Boston College
Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts
J.D. Walton, Baylor

Offensive totals

Total offensive prospects selected in first round: 15

Total offensive prospects selected in second round: 17

Total offensive prospects selected in third round: 16

Be sure to check out our defensive projections Tuesday.

Follow me on Twitter @WesBunting

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