Sunday, the 49ers got a glimpse of what might have been. Four years removed from the 2005 NFL Draft, they went to Green Bay to face the player who could have been the future and face of their franchise.
As we know, the 49ers used the first pick in the 2005 draft to select Alex Smith of Utah over Aaron Rodgers, the equally highly rated prospect from Chico, Calif., who played across the San Francisco Bay at Cal. The choice of Smith over Rodgers was considered something of a mild upset.
Following that selection, the longest five hours of Rodgers’ life ensued in front of a live national television audience. As each pick passed, the ESPN cameras focused on Rodgers, who sat with agent Mike Sullivan in the green room.
APAaron Rodgers fell to the Packers at No. 24 in the 2005 draft.
Team after team passed on Rodgers, setting up the Packers at the 24th selection. Once Tampa Bay passed with the fifth pick – Jon Gruden had promised Aaron he would take him if he were there – it became clear that, as the Snickers commercial says, “this could take a while.”
The hours passed and the catering staff started stacking tables and chairs to give Rodgers the hint to leave. Unfortunately, there was nowhere to go (a couple of years later, Commissioner Roger Goodell mercifully provided Brady Quinn a place to sit out of view of the cameras).
I was the one chosen to take Aaron and Mike out of their misery. Sitting in the Packers’ war room that day, GM Ted Thompson looked over at me and asked me to get Mike Sullivan on the phone and keep him there while we made our decision.
“Andrew, please tell me you are taking him,” Sullivan whispered out of Aaron’s earshot. I felt for Mike, I really did, but I had to string out the agony a few more minutes. My instructions were to keep him on the line while we were on the clock to see if our phone rang with any offers we couldn’t refuse.
In what must have seemed like days for Mike and Aaron, I kept them holding before finally telling them we were picking Aaron (as I watched them on ESPN talking to me). Aaron was a Packer, set to join us as a backup to Brett Favre for an undetermined length of time.
Aaron was a hit from the beginning in Green Bay. At the first minicamp a few days after the draft, he lofted a 60-yard pass that hit Donald Driver in stride. My eyes caught those of Thompson, who gave me about the most expressive look he would ever give, indicating that he had found the future and his name was Aaron Rodgers.
APAlex Smith was the 49ers' first overall pick in the 2005 draft.
The 49ers, of course, picked Smith and rewarded him with one of those contracts that are now thrown up as Exhibit A for a rookie wage scale, full of disproportionate guarantees and huge escalators -- one of the largest contracts in the NFL at the time. As for Aaron, we negotiated a contract that was simple on the front side but extremely difficult on the back side because we were trying to predict when Brett would be no longer playing for the Packers – after one year, two years, three years, four years, etc. (the answer was three, although not in the way we expected at the time).
Here’s a comparison of the contracts these first two quarterbacks in the draft received:
Guarantee Total Value
Smith $24M $49.5M
Rodgers $5.1M $7.7M
As we now know, both contracts were reworked, in opposite directions.
A year ago, Rodgers, after starting seven games for the Packers, was rewarded with a six-year contract worth $65 million, with $20 million guaranteed. Interestingly, the $20M added to his rookie-contract guarantee puts Rodgers just ahead of Smith in guaranteed money in his career, landing him right where he thought he should have been four years ago at the top of the draft.
And last March, Smith, who had made over $26M from the 49ers in four seasons, agreed to reduce his remaining compensation down to $6.5M total for this season and next, with incentives for another $2M per season. Although a far cry from the $24M he was scheduled to make, according to his original contract, this was certainly a fair deal for Smith, who faced the prospect of being released into the marketplace to try and find something better.
Now, for the first time as starters, these players, whose careers are inextricably linked through the events at the top of the draft, met at Lambeau Field in a Packers victory. The 49ers had an up-close look at what might have been.
Some other notes from the weekend:
APBrett Favre beat his former backup Matt Hasselbeck as the Vikes took care of the Seahawks.
Another interesting quarterback pairing occurred in Minnesota as Favre played against another of his former backups, Matt Hasselbeck. Matt knows Brett as well as anyone. The two are as naturally funny as any players in the league – engaging personalities that always keep things light and loose….
Tony Dungy continues to provide understated excellence on Sunday Night Football. Somehow, he’s able to illustrate and tactfully disapprove better than any of the more animated commentators filling the airwaves. Instead of openly criticizing Bears QB Jay Cutler, he said, “I didn’t think anyone could overthrow Devin Hester.” When Cutler later overthrew Johnny Knox for what would have been another touchdown, I could hear Dungy saying those words again….
There will be some lore about what Matthew Stafford did at the end of the Lions-Browns game, but it will be misguided. At a time when the NFL is trying to instill autonomy in the medical staffs and specialists to keep players from their natural instincts to want to play, Stafford defied four doctors and completed the game. Now his coach is joking about it and Stafford is a hero. I know this wasn’t a head injury – it was only a shoulder – but his blatant disregard for his team’s medical advice should not be celebrated….
On the third weekend of November, the top two teams in college football, Florida and Alabama, played Florida International and Chattanooga. Seriously?
The Packers lost two important players Sunday in Al Harris and Aaron Kampman. However important they were on the field, they will be missed more off the field. Those are two special people right there, people who would do anything to help teammates and friends. We wish them a speedy recovery from their injuries.
Follow me on Twitter: adbrandt
Is San Francisco's Alex Smith a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year? Check out this article at Bleacher Report.
Andrew, the injuries to Kampman and Harris really put the packers in a bind, especially with Harris due to the injuries previously suffered by the backup CBs, such as Blackmon and Lee. Lee is now healthy but since he was put on injured reserve at the beginning of the year, he is not eligible, of course, to return. Any idea why the NFL runs the IR as a season ending deal only? Why doesn't it have a staggered type IR, much like baseball does with its different disabled lists. It doesn't seem to me to make any sense to do it the way the NFL does it, but there must be a reason for it. Do you know?
Mr. Brandt, how likely do you think Packers GM Thompson would bring back both players next year?
Great article Andrew. I have to wonder though... If the tables were turned and SF had picked Rodgers, he would've been the one thrown into the fire way too early. Smith would've been the one to sit behind Brett and learn and ease his way in. Would Aaron really fared much better in Smiths shoes?
Assuming thier skill sets are fairly equal outside of a couple of different strengths and weaknesses, IMHO I'd have to assume the same thing would've happened if they were in each others shoes. Although some guys can come right in and set the world on fire, I don't think Aaron would've done that in SF. As Packers fan watching his progression, Aaron was not ready until last year... I truely don't think he would've went to San Fran and fared any better than Smith.
Prof7 - it's never really been confirmed but a lot of speculation has been about the coach Rodgers had in college. In a ten year stretch, Jeff Tedford put four QBs into the first round of the NFL draft, three of them into the top ten - Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington and Kyle Boller. He also coached AJ Feeley and Billy Volek who were late round or free agents to the NFL. Many scouts looked at Rodgers as another case of Tedford getting quality college level production out of less than NFL caliber or journeyman level talent. And according to Tedford at the time, the only real difference between Rodgers and the other QBs listed here was maturity.
A lot of scouts recommended against Rodgers specifically because of Tedford. Whether or not that was the case with SF has never been proven but others discussed it openly.
Well .... In fairness to Smith, we don't know how things would have worked out if the roles were reversed and Rodgers was forced to start from Day One while Smith was able to sit for three years and learn ...
Koition's post makes a lot of sense. Rogers was fortunate in that, in addition to his own talents, he got to observe and learn from one of the game's all time greats at the position and he looks like he has a nice long career in front of him - at least he will if the O-Line can protect him. All other things being equal you'd have to think the same would have happened for Smith. Maybe Tavaris Jackson may reap some of the same benefits in Minnesota.
Sad for Aaron, his injury may limit his options. He was playing better for the last few games. The press talk was that the packers could franchise him and work out a trade if they didn't think he was fitting in to the 3-4. Who knows now.
It's hard to say if Alex would have done better if he and Aaron had switched spots. Maybe sitting for a few would have made a big difference. He showed a live arm yesterday, but Aaron sure does look like a really good QB right now. If he had a better offensive line and running game it could be lights out.
As a Niners fan, I can guarantee you that had we drafted Rodgers, Mike Nolan would have found a way to screw him up, too. Every OC he had working for him, McCarthy, Norv Turner, etc....absolutely HATED working for him.
Andrew, your articles are always good reading. Your Packer insight is always respectful. Your compassion for Al and Aaron is appreciated. These guys are hard workers and will be missed. Too bad for Kamp that it now appears that he will most likely have to prove himself all over again, but unfortunately I don't think it's going to be with the Packers.
I assume the kampman situation will be similar to what is going on with merriman in san diego. as lon g as tila tiquila doesnt get in his way i would assume kampman will be a packer next year.
The Packers were very fortunate to get a talented person with class. Aaron Rodgers has proven that he has the physical skills and the talent to compete. We have only seen the "Starting Point" of his career. With the proper team around him he should be a consistant winner for a very long time. Favre didn't want to come to off season workouts but Rodgers looked forward to these times to get in the work. When Favre went on ESPN and cried "I don't have anything left to give". I believe all the Packer management wanted was "Do you want to come back or are you leaving". Favre left, but wait he wanted to come back 6 months later. I felt sorry for Rodgers when #4 came back ane said he reallly never officially retired. The Packers worked out a trade with the Jet's and in the long run both Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be better off with this decision. Their present QB does NOT have all the history and the records but... I am confident that Aaron Rodgers will get more than his share before his career is finished.
Aaron Rogers is waayyyyy over rated at this point in his career. Can the media stop gushing over this guy long enough to let him actually accomplish something? Maybe he's the real deal but what really has he done yet? Not saying he won't just that up until now he hasn't. The Packers beat the fading Cowboys this year - big deal. Who did they beat last year among their 6 wins?
Bengal Cub, the "fading," division-leading Cowboys who had won 4 in a row? And since you asked, last year they beat Minnesota and Indy.
Not saying the dude is the greatest of all time, but Rodgers has handled himself very well despite a horrid O-line, not to mention dealing with post-Brett vitriol. No one claims he's done much yet - his 12-14 record as a starter can't be ignored - but any time a scout is asked, they see real talent there. It's not "gushing" if it's true, and in time he will accomplish a lot.
Bengal Cub - last year in their 6-win season, Rodgers and the Packers defeated the Vikings on opening night and the Colts, among other teams. Of course they lost at least 5 games when the defense pilfered away late leads and Rodgers was unable to turn the tide of momentum, but his biggest accomplishment was never wilting to the pressure of following a legend, in spite of said legend's personal attempts to keep him on the bench even after he made his final decision to "retire".
Any idea why the NFL runs the IR as a season ending deal only? Why doesn't it have a staggered type IR, much like baseball does with its different disabled lists. It doesn't seem to me to make any sense to do it the way the NFL does it, but there must be a reason for it. Do you know?
----
I think this rule was changed sometime in the early 90s when the new CBA was signed. Going from memory, this is how IR used to work.
There were two types of IR. If someone was put on IR before the regular season, they were lost for the season (as is the case now). Players placed on IR in season were required to sit out at least four weeks.
I think the NFL changed the IR rule because owners thought some teams were using IR to stash players. Players were fairly routinely juggled between the 45-man active roster and the in-season IR, some with rather dubious injuries.
By going to a 53-man roster with a 45-man game day roster, players with short-term injuries could remain on the 53-man roster without having to go on IR. This lessened the amount of roster shuffling that went on and kept things more above board.
Hopefully someone can comment and either confirm my remembrances or confirm my fading memory.
Chris
Rodgers is simply a better talent than Smith folks. Let's not go overboard with this whole, "He got to learn from one of the greatest angle". Favre hated and treated Rodgers like trash from day one. Rodgers didn't "ease" his way into starting. He was booed by his own fans throughout training camp leading up to his first season as a starter. He dealt with more adversity than Smith ever had to. Let's not try to state that Rodgers had this easy path to becoming a starter. That is just misguided nonsense on the part of those that say this. It might have been the most difficult path to become an NFL starting QB that any player has ever had to go to.
Replacing a HOF QB isn't easy and its even more difficult when that HOF QB still wanted to play and was traded to another team. Rodgers is simply a more talented QB than Smith. Plain and simple. I don't think he would have had the stats that he does in Green Bay had he ended up in SF but I don't think they would have been as bad as Smith's have been either. Just because a QB is developed for 3 years doesn't guarantee success. Rodgers is leading the NFC in passing yards and currently has a 100+ QB Rating. The guy is a good QB. Give him credit. You can't just swap QBs around and get the same results. He has equalled Favre's offensive production in the same offense. If this is only due to Rodgers being developed carefully then what does that say about Brett Favre.
If both QBs were swapped, Smith would have done better in GB and Rodgers wouldn't do as well as he has in SF but you can't just assume Smith would be putting up Pro Bowl numbers in GB and Rodgers would have been a huge disappointment. Most HOF QBs were thrown to the wolves their first year and made out just fine. John Elway got really beat up his rookie year. P. Manning went 3-13 his rookie year. QBs aren't interchangable folks. They're either good or they aren't. Sure the offensive system and development can help but at some point they have to be grown men and play with the big boys. Rodgers is getting beat up on a weekly basis in Green Bay. This is the excuse that is made for Smith. Outside of Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have ZERO 1st round picks on the offensive side of the ball. The 49ers have drafted OL, TE, and WR in the 1st round. Good QBs make their supporting casts look better. Again, the Packers have ZERO first round picks invested in the offense other than Rodgers himself. It just wasn't a good pick for SF. Smith wasn't ready to play in the NFL. He played in a spread offense and was going to need time to learn the NFL game. Rodgers is a big time QB that can make all the throws and its unfair to say his success is because he was able to sit for a few years and that Smith would have panned out every bit as well had he gone through the same path. Again Rodgers path to a starting QB wasn't an easy one.
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Nov 23, 2009
12:40 PM
Hey Andrew, to this day McCarthy won't tell Aaron why San Fran chose Smith over him. Do you have any idea? Just curious.