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Which NFL season win totals are the sharps backing? Which teams have experienced the biggest adjustments? Let’s take a look. Joe Fortenbaugh

July 30, 2013
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The 2013 NFL regular season starts in 37 days, which means we have 38 days—including today—to place our season win total action for the fall. We’ve examined the opening numbers, made some early predictions and kept track of everything that has been happening in Vegas. In the coming weeks, we’ll be releasing our final picks.

But for now, let’s take a look at the developments that have taken place at two local sports books, the LVH and Wynn, and get an idea of which direction the early action has been flowing.

SHARPS VS. SQUARES

The National Football Post spoke with LVH bookmakers Jeff Sherman and Ed Salmons over the weekend to get an idea of which positions both the professional gamblers and betting public have already taken in regards to 2013 NFL season win totals.

Here’s the rundown of some of the most popular bets already placed by both the sharps and betting public:

Arizona Cardinals 5.5 (Over: -120, Under: EVEN): Split action, with the sharps backing the over and the public supporting the under.

Dallas Cowboys 8.5 (Over: +135, Under: -155): The betting public likes the over.

Denver Broncos 11.5 (Over: +110, Under: -130): The betting public likes the over.

Detroit Lions 7.5 (Over: -150, Under: +130): Both the sharps and the betting public are supporting the over.

Kansas City Chiefs 7.0 (Over: -120, Under: EVEN): Split action, with the sharps backing the under and the public supporting the over.

New England Patriots 11.5 (Over: +180, Under: -210): Both the sharps and the betting public are backing the under.

New Orleans Saints 9.0 (Over: -165, Under: +145): The betting public likes the over.

THE BIG ADJUSTMENTS

Between the LVH and the Wynn, only one season win total has been adjusted since the numbers hit the board a few months back. All of the Wynn’s original numbers have held tight, but the LVH moved the Carolina Panthers from 7 (Over: -110, Under: -110) to 7.5 (Over: -130, Under: +110). That’s a big swing worth noting, but according to Sherman, the sharp action has been balanced between the over and under.

But while the actual season win total numbers have held tight at both shops, the juice has been adjusted for a number of teams. Here are the LVH’s biggest shifts:

New England Patriots (65 cents)

Open: 11.5 (Over: +115, Under: -135)
Current: 11.5 (Over: +180, Under: -210)

New Orleans Saints (55 cents)

Open: 9.0 (Over: -110, Under: -110)
Current: 9.0 (Over: -165, Under: +145)

Arizona Cardinals (50 cents)

Open: 5.5 (Over: +130, Under: -150)
Current: 5.5 (Over: -120, Under: EVEN)

Cincinnati Bengals (50 cents)

Open: 8.5 (Over: +110, Under: -130)
Current: 8.5 (Over: -140, Under: +120)

Green Bay Packers (50 cents)

Open: 10.0 (Over: -120, Under: EVEN)
Current: 10.0 (Over: -170, Under: +150)

San Francisco 49ers (45 cents)

Open: 11.5 (Over: +110, Under: -130)
Current: 11.5 (Over: +155, Under: -175)

Detroit Lions (40 cents)

Open: 7.5 (Over: -110, Under: -110)
Current: 7.5 (Over: -150, Under: +130)

Minnesota Vikings (35 cents)

Open: 7.5 (Over: -110, Under: -110)
Current: 7.5 (Over: +125, Under: -145)

THE BENEFITS OF SHOPPING

Why lay -165 on an over when you can lay -145? We can’t stress enough the value in shopping for the best price, whether it comes to season win totals or individual game action. Nobody with half a brain accepts the estimate offered from the first mechanic without examining the rest of the market. Treat sports wagering the same way.

Baltimore Ravens

LVH: 8.5 (Over: -110, Under: -110)
Wynn: 9.0 (Over: +115, Under: -135)

Carolina Panthers

LVH: 7.5 (Over: -130, Under: +110)
Wynn: 7.0 (Over: -165, Under: +145)

Detroit Lions

LVH: 7.5 (Over: -150, Under: +130)
Wynn: 8.0 (Over: -105, Under: -115)

Houston Texans

LVH: 10.0 (Over: -120, Under: EVEN)
Wynn: 10.5 (Over: +130, Under: -150)

Kansas City Chiefs

LVH: 7.0 (Over: -120, Under: EVEN)
Wynn: 7.5 (Over: +115, Under: -135)

Philadelphia Eagles

LVH: 7.0 (Over: -120, Under: EVEN)
Wynn: 7.5 (Over: +120, Under: -140)

Pittsburgh Steelers

LVH: 9.0 (Over: -150, Under: +130)
Wynn: 9.5 (Over: +125, Under: -145)

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

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