Watching last Sunday's playoff game between the Texans and Ravens, I was drawn to the fact that both teams rely heavily on superb workhorse running backs playing in the final year of their contracts. Arian Foster and Ray Rice are free agents in six weeks and (although unlikely) could find themselves in different uniforms next year. Let's examine:
Rice has quietly been one of the league's top backs.
Talk is cheap
2011 was a tough year for NFL running backs. Although Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson inked contracts that set a new standard for the position, guaranteeing each over $30 million, Peterson suffered a gruesome knee injury and Johnson had a down year by his own standards. These case studies do not help, and may even hurt the prospect of clubs allocating big money to the running back position, the position with the shortest career longevity in the NFL.
And, while there a few running backs that voiced low rumbles of discontent with their individual contract situations – Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, and Peyton Hillis – Foster and Rice remained professional and silent despite making league minimum salary, letting their play speak for itself.
Numbers never lie
Here’s what Rice and Foster did this season (with NFL rank in parenthesis):
Rice Foster
Touchdowns 15 (4th) 12 (8th)
Rushing yards 1364 (2nd) 1224 (5th)
Receiving yards (RBs) 704 (2nd) 617 (3rd)
Yards from scrimmage 2068 (1st) 1841 (3rd)
% of Total Offense 48% 31%
2011 Salary $600,000 $525,000
These are not limited sample sizes, either. Rice posted gaudy numbers in 2009 and 2010 while Foster likewise took the NFL by storm last season.
The marketplace
After a stagnant several years, Peterson and Johnson moved the running back market. Over the first three years – the true marker for any deal – Johnson will earn a $10.3 million APY (average per year) and Peterson a $13.3 million APY. DeAngelo Williams, also signed in 2011, secured a five-year $43 million contract ($8.6 million APY) that included $21 million guaranteed.
Expect the agents for Foster and Rice to utilize Williams' deal as a baseline for guaranteed money with the hope of securing an APY between Williams and Johnson.
Organizational retention
Foster and Rice will quietly seek long-term deals in the offseason. In the event that they cannot agree to terms, both the Texans and Ravens can resort to other means to retain these players' services.
Foster is a Restricted Free Agent (RFA). Thus, the Texans can tender a qualifying offer, giving them the ability to match any offer sheet he would receive from another team. There are a number of different tenders (original draft round, second round, first round) that teams may extend to players. The first and third round tender – which was the highest tender in the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement -- no longer exists in the new CBA.
The amount for the current highest tender – first round tender – was $2.611 in 2011 and will rise between 5-10% tied to increased revenues for 2012. Nevertheless, this strategy does involve some risk: a team in need of a dynamic running back could potentially steal Foster by making him an offer so substantial that leaves the Texans unable to meet it. While they would receive draft compensation of a first round pick they would be without their star running back and focal point of their offense.
A more expensive (but more secure) avenue – available to both the Texans and Ravens – is to apply the Franchise Tag (Tag) to Foster and Rice. As explained here, the Tag number for running backs for 2012 will actually be reduced from $9.5 million in 2011 to approximately $7.7 million in 2012. The Tag will definitely be in play in negotiations for Foster and Rice.
Year of the running back
With continuing issues concerning Foster, Rice, Forte, Jackson, and Hillis, the 2012 offseason will have its share of running back issues. Having been on both sides of the issue, I empathize with both sides.
I understand the players' desire to receive their money as soon as possible due to the wear and tear inherent with the position. These players, more than any others in football, find it very hard to be paid value commensurate with their production. As I noted earlier about Forte, a valid question to ask was whether his production and heavy workload was helping him towards a long-term contract or hurting him?
For the exact same reasons that running backs want their money as soon as possible, teams are reluctant to do so. There is a graveyard of bad second and third contracts for running backs who have played past their prime, an age that seems to come earlier every year. Teams want to go year-to-year with this position if they can, unwilling to commit large guarantees and contracts difficult to “get out of” to a position where production that, when it drops, it drops significantly.
Foster and Rice are terrific players. There will be many cries to “Pay the man!” as there was for Johnson this past summer. If only it were that easy.
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Obviously, Rice will be franchise-tagged if he and the Ravens don't come to some type of understanding. Foster is trickier because he's only a RFA.
I've got to think that Ben Tate provides some nice insurance for the Texans in the event of the worst-case-scenario where Foster takes his beer elsewhere. Plus, if these two are going to split carries moving forward, how can you justify $10M per for Foster?
I don't understand why there isn't a mutually beneficial contract format which pays those that do well when they actually do well. There's no reason for any of these guys making "minimum wage" who become the best at their position to have to wait to get paid [or for the team to have to pay them after the fact]. Why aren't there incentive clauses to reward a guy like Foster who has led the NFL in yards/game for two years straight? It should be obvious. Pay them while they are excelling and don't take the risk of overpaying them after the fact. The list of those RB's who got paid after the fact and flopped is enormously long ... Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson ... to name a few. Whose to say whether CJ2K ever does what he did 3 seasons ago again? He may be a 1 hit wonder and never do it again! Giving him such ridiculous $ after the fact makes everyone look stupid.
Dancing Bear,
First and foremost, players are the ones that are not interested in a pay scale that is based mostly on incentives because they don't view that as financial stability. It's much more desirable to cash in with a good amount of guaranteed money after one huge season than to have to constantly earn your pay each year on the basis of performance alone, especially when one considers the likelihood of injury. Yes, a significant portion of even the elite players' contracts are not guaranteed and can be recovered when an player isn't living up to his cap figure, but even then it takes a couple of seasons of under-performance to really play out. Rookies would stand to benefit the most from substantial performance bonuses, but the vast majority of the league is comprised of veterans who see such a system as risking much for very little return.
easy solution but no one ever talks about it. (didn't come up during CBA negotiations as far as i know either).
salary cap exemption for up to 1 running back on the roster of 10% of total cap number.
that way RB's can shop their services just like all other positions, and a team doesn't have to be paranoid that a bad contract to a RB cripples the rest of their roster. the danger of signing a RB and having him not perform isn't the actual money that the team loses, its the fact that the money is tied up in that player and not able to be used on other players. this way RBs don't get screwed due to the nature of their position because a team faces the option of spending money on him, or losing that salary cap extension all together.
If the Texans are smart, they give Foster the 1st round tender unless Foster agrees to a much lower contract than AP and CJ1K got. While Foster is noticeably better than Tate, there are many RBs that could excel in that situation. I'd be happy with a 1st round pick rather than spending $8-$10 million per year on a long term contract. I think Foster realizes how fortunate he is to be in Houston, and is probably why he has kept quiet. It's rare for an elite athlete to have a realistic view of himself and the Texans should also feel fortunate.
Andrew,
Quick question around this issue. Has the NFLPA ever come forward, or, in the future, do you see them coming forward with charges of collusion to keep RB salaries down? Obviously, owners/GMs would hang their hats on the salaries of Johnson and Peterson, but there seems to be some anecdotal evidence to support that RBs are always underpaid. They perform for peanuts under their first contracts and then fight to get paid when they are FAs after being ground up. Rice and Forte come to mind as RBs that might fit this mold.
Hope to hear your thoughts. Always a good read.
-E
FB,
Well stated. I see Rice as the more difficult situation. The Ravens are a smart team and not likely to go overboard. Something below the tag number for three years would be reasonable. otherwise, tag him for two years, then say thanks very much, kind of like they did with Jamal Lewis.
Jan 19, 2012
10:05 AM
It seems like running backs are in a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation. Excelling during your rookie contract invites more touches, and leads to more wear and tear, therefore teams are wary about giving a big second contract. Perform at a lower level, and the team argues that you haven't earned a big pay increase.