Bad beats and moving lines

Before the 2009 NFL season started, we at Pregame.com compiled power rankings based on Vegas projected number of wins for each team. Of the top 10 teams in our rankings, two played each other (Tennessee/Pittsburgh), while the remaining eight (New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Baltimore, New York Giants, New Orleans) went 4-4 against the spread but 8-0 outright. Similarly, of the bottom eight teams in our rankings, two played each other (Denver/Cincinnati) while the remaining six teams (Tampa, Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland, St. Louis, Kansas City) were a miserable 1-5 against the spread and 0-6 outright. Such results are typical, and it would not be a stretch to say that Week 1 unfolded almost exactly as anticipated.

APJason Campbell's TD pass prevented the Giants from covering.

One factor that did stand out on kickoff weekend was the number of what we call “bad beats.” Four contests featured dramatic late-game plays that wound up swinging the money for those betting the standard point spread. In the Thursday night game, Hines Ward fumbled inside the Titans 5-yard line with less than a minute remaining, sending the game into OT and allowing the Titans to cover as six-point underdogs. Aaron Rodgers hit Greg Jennings on a 50-yard touchdown pass with 1:18 left Sunday night, a go-ahead score that also allowed the Pack to cover the -3½-point spread against the Bears. Earlier in the day, Jason Campbell connected with Chris Cooley for a meaningless touchdown in the final minute against the Giants, cutting the score to 23-17 and bailing out those bettors who went with the Redskins as +6½ underdogs. The most devastating bad beat occurred in Baltimore where the Chiefs and Ravens were tied with two minutes left in the game. Getting 13 points, the shaky Chiefs defense somehow managed to allow two touchdowns before the final whistle sounded, handing the Ravens a 14-point victory and the cover. Ouch.

If you’re looking for a good bet for Week 2, keep your eye on those games with the most significant line moves. Last week, four of the five biggest line movers won against the spread. This week, the most significant movers are Atlanta (opened at -2½ home against Carolina, has now moved to -6½), the New York Jets (opened at +6½ home against New England, has now moved to +3½), Arizona (opened at +5 on the road in Jacksonville, has now moved to +3), and Pittsburgh (opened at -1 on the road against Chicago, has now moved to -3).

The hesitation to set the line for the Eagles-Saints showdown — arguably the premier game of the week — shows you just how much respect Donovan McNabb commands among Vegas oddsmakers, if not Philadelphia talk radio hosts. With a healthy McNabb, the Eagles would be -3½-point favorites at home against New Orleans. With their QB out, the Eagles are now +1-point underdogs. There are only a handful of players in the league worth four points to their team, and McNabb is certainly one of them.

R.J. Bell is the founder of Pregame.com, the largest sports betting website compliant with U.S. law.

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