Bad year for Vegas? Think again

So far this season, two NFL games have had a point spread of "pick 'em." Of the remaining 126 games, the favorite has won against the spread 63 times, and the underdog has won against the spread 63 times. Amazing but true: the Las Vegas point spread has split the NFL's results perfectly down the middle in 2009. What's more, this isn't an aberration. Underdogs covered 50.8% of games in 2008 and 48.8% in 2007. Clearly, Vegas is gunning for that .500 split. But why?

First, a refresher on the purpose of the point spread. Simply put, it's there to make picking these games difficult. Imagine if you could simply pick the Vikings over the Lions. That’s easy. But what if Minnesota is a 17-point favorite, as they are this weekend? How much do you really like the Vikings? It's a test of devotion. Picking a winner in that case is a massive challenge.

And the size of that challenge is hammered home by the fact that after 126 games, the favorite has covered exactly half of the time, while the dogs have covered the other half. Not only do you have to know when to lay the points, and when to take the points – but you have to risk 11 to win 10 while doing it (called the “juice” or “vig”). With all these factors lined up to complicate the seemingly simple task of picking an underdog or a favorite, it's little wonder less than 5% of bettors win money over the long run.

What's lost in all this is Vegas' uncanny ability to ensure their dream result of a 50-50 split. NFP and countless other websites gather experts to predict how the games will turn out. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they're wrong, but in the end, Vegas isn't trying to beat you. There's a loser for every winner, and that's all Vegas needs to come out ahead.

RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com, the largest sports betting website compliant with U.S. law. Click here to follow him on Twitter.

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