Sizing up the chances of four 2010 draft prospects. Wes Bunting
One of the toughest evaluations an NFL team and scouting department can make is assessing and ranking a draft’s quarterback class. With more and more money being invested in the position every year, it’s becoming critical for a franchise to make the right decision regarding its quarterback. The St. Louis Rams currently find themselves debating whether to take a quarterback with the first overall pick and play the risk/reward game or choose a safer prospect with less potential future impact.
When evaluating the quarterback position, terms such as “big-time arm strength” and “impressive physical skill set” are frequently used to describe the type of physical attributes a prospect possesses. However, if quarterback success was derived solely from physical attributes, players like Jeff George and Ryan Leaf would be headed to the Hall of Fame. Regardless, finding NFL signal callers is becoming more about accuracy, intelligence and intangibles than it is overall physical skills.
When developing my own grading scale for quarterbacks, I based much of my evaluation around the theories of Marc Trestman, head coach of the Montreal Alouettes, who identified four qualities a quarterback needs to have a shot at being successful in the NFL:
1. The quarterback needs to have an ability to make all the throws required to attack a defense on every play. This includes the arm strength to throw the deep out, the feel to drop a deep ball into a receiver’s hands down the field and the touch to hit a running back out of the backfield.
2. The quarterback needs to be able to make quick and decisive decisions under pressure. You not only want an intelligent quarterback in the pocket but also a quarterback who has the instincts to feel pressure and create a play when things break down.
3. The quarterback needs to be mobile in some capacity and have an ability to avoid the rush in one of three ways:
A. The ability to sidestep pressure in the pocket.
B. The ability to get outside the pocket and accurately deliver the ball on the move.
C. The ability to scramble and gain yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
4. The quarterback needs to be tough and able to stare down the barrel of the shotgun, take a hit, get up and do it again. It takes a special type of player who can take a shot, dust himself off and rally his team on the next play, but the quarterback needs to have that quality.
Notice, there isn’t a prerequisite of a rocket arm or elite athletic ability for a quarterback to be successful in the NFL. Quarterback success is all about decision making, accuracy and timing in the pass game. So when identifying a possible number or statistic to aid in the evaluation of a college quarterback, nothing may be more helpful than considering his completion percentage. It boggles my mind to see a quarterback drafted high based on his pure physical skill set, especially when he never completed a high percentage of passes in his college career. What makes you think a QB who never completed 60 percent of his passes in college will be able to complete 60 percent of his passes in the NFL?
To add some substance to my thoughts, I want to look at every quarterback drafted in the first round from 1997-2006 who didn’t complete 60 percent of his passes during his final college season to show the alarming rate of failure.
1997
Jim Druckenmiller, Virginia Tech (Completion percentage: 54 percent)
1998
Ryan Leaf, Washington State (55 percent)
1999
Akili Smith, Oregon (58 percent)
Cade McNown, UCLA (58 percent)
2001
Michael Vick, Virginia Tech (54 percent)
2002
Joey Harrington, Oregon (59 percent)
Patrick Ramsey, Tulane (57 percent)
2003
Kyle Boller, California (53 percent)
Rex Grossman, Florida (57 percent)
2004
J.P. Losman, Tulane (59 percent)
2006
Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt (59 percent)
As you can see, there has been minimal success by first-round quarterbacks who didn’t complete 60 percent of their passes during their final year of college football.
Now, with an eye toward the 2010 draft class, let’s take a look at four of the draft’s top quarterbacks and break down what their completion percentage means in relation to their possible success at the next level.
1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma (6-4, 223) Completion Percentage: 68 percent (2008)
Having missed most of the 2009 season, Bradford isn’t the easiest quarterback prospect to grade out. However, any time you put on tape of the guy from 2008, his accuracy, touch and anticipation instantly jump out at you. Plus, the fact he was able to show well for himself against Florida in the 2009 BCS National Championship game makes me think he won’t have any additional troubles making the jump from the Big 12 to the NFL. Now, he might need some time to shake off the rust a bit, but the fact remains, Bradford is the most accurate quarterback in this draft, and I expect him to mature into a very solid starting pro at the next level.
2. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame (6-3, 223), 68 percent
To say Clausen’s play improved by leaps and bounds in 2009 is an understatement. He did a nice job all year managing the offense as well as showcasing impressive accuracy and timing in the short/intermediate pass game. However, one of my big concerns with Clausen is his ability to make plays down the field at the next level. He doesn’t have the strongest arm and consistently asked his talented receiving corps to go up and make plays for him. There’s no doubt in my mind he can be efficient underneath in an NFL pass game, but he’s going to have to get used to teams putting a lot of defenders on the first two levels of the field, forcing him to be on time with his throws outside the numbers.
3. Tim Tebow, Florida (6-3, 245), 68 percent
To say Tebow is overly inaccurate with the football is completely off base. When the guy has a chance to see the throw on any level of the field, he certainly – in my opinion -- exhibits the arm strength and accuracy needed to make any throw at the next level. My biggest concern with him is his release and overall lack of timing/rhythm in the pass game. However, with some time to develop from under center and work on his overall throwing mechanics, I think his timing in the pass game will naturally improve if he can mature in both those areas. Tebow is a couple of years away, but he’s a worker and a bright kid, and I believe if given time, he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
4. Colt McCoy: Texas (6-2, 210), 71 percent
McCoy is another accurate passer in the underneath pass game who has made a living completing passes under five yards and allowing his receivers to create after catch. However, the biggest concern I have with McCoy is his inability to be decisive with the ball when his initial read isn’t on. He struggles when asked to go through his progressions and lacks the arm strength to be late with a throw outside the numbers. He’s one guy whose completion percentage has been inflated because of his scheme at the college level, and he’ll have a significantly larger learning curve than the others as he tries to develop into an NFL-caliber passer.
Summing up
With the consistent evolution of the passing game, an NFL quarterback is now being asked to play a bigger role than ever. With the success of more and more plays hinging on a quarterback’s decision-making, accuracy and timing, it’s becoming paramount to find someone who can make efficient decisions from the pocket and be effective in the face of pressure.
Consequently, a quarterback’s completion percentage, which helps indicate his accuracy and decision-making, is a helpful aid when searching for NFL-quality starters.
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I think the irony of this year's draft is that the one guy who is tough enough to take the pounding a rookie QB on a crap team will get, Tebow, will probably go late in the first round to a good team. Marc Bulger basically got killed in St. Louis, and they're thnking about drafting a guy who got injured on a routine sack? What will happen if Albert Haynseworth lands on him?
Clausen was pretty impressive in the film I saw, but I wonder if he can stand tall in the pocket and get the ball out. A lot of his big plays seemed to come when he bought time by rolling out.
Accuracy and a quick release coupled with quick decision-making seem essential to success at the position. That said, the really top guys, with the exception perhaps of Montana, all had huge arms. When you take a guy high who has only adequate arm strength, you've limited your upside to a Chad Pennington-type level of success.
Agreed with Gen - why not put all 1st rounders? We could see the ones with >60% and saw how they fared. No offense Wes, but in most of your articles you do a lot of cherry picking of stats and don't really show the whole picture.
Ok, I did some digging and here's what I found...since '97 There have been 21 QBs over the 60% mark that were drafted in the 1st round. 7 have turned out to be very good, 7 could be labeled as good (or at least had some success), and 7 have either been relegated to back-up duties or have been horrible.
Off of Wes' list, none have been very good, only 2 have been good, the rest have been dreadful.
'98 Manning
'99 Couch, McNabb, and Culpepper
'00 Pennington
'02 Carr
'03 Palmer, Leftwich
'04 Manning, Rivers, Rothlesberger,
'05 Smith, Rodgers, Campbell
'06 Young, Leinart
'07 Russell, Quinn
'08 Ryan, Flacco
'09 Stafford, Sanchez
Very well written article Wes, I agree with your position. Based off of the numbers you have a 33% chance of getting a very good player using this formula and a 66% chance of at least getting some return on the investment for that 1st round pick.
Ron Wolf had a pretty fair eye for the QB position, but then his criteria were a little different than those listed.
The list is good because its first emphasis is on making all the throws. It is a passer's league.
Toughness is something I'd consider a number one item, a lot of guys can hold the clipboard for their smarts and can't stay composed getting hit and rushed. Then again, some of the toughest boxers in history were just sparring partners who got pounded by the top of a fight ticket on a daily basis as a gym rat.
Passing, feel, mobility, toughness, sounds good.
Without feel or mobility your guy is a sitting target. He can be tough as a pounching bag and take just as many hits without the other attributes.
Bill Walsh was a boxer in his younger days....
So here is my question. If you are willing to implement a shotgun offense? like Gailey did with Thigpen.
How does it effect a teams view of drop back, footwork,rhythm, timing flaws?
College stats don't always forecast the future:
Elway 62% at Stanford
Marino 58% at Pitt
Montana 52% at ND
Terry O.
here is a perfect example of how stats mean nothing...Bradford vs. Culter...Cutler was running for his life, getting nailed in the pocket with inferior talent...Bradford almost always has a clean pocket to throw from...the time he doesn't (2-3 games) he looks very average...which one is he (Bradford)?
College stats don't always forecast the future:
Elway 62% at Stanford
Marino 58% at Pitt
Montana 52% at ND
Montana Pro Career 63%
Marino Pro Career 59%
Elway Pro Career 57%
Terry O.
College stats don't always forecast the future:
Elway 62% at Stanford
Marino 58% at Pitt
Montana 52% at ND
Montana Pro Career 63%
Marino Pro Career 59%
Elway Pro Career 57%
Terry O.
Accuracy is a major factor when evaluating QB's and trying to determine if they have a chance, but Bunting kind of bastardizes Trestman's 4 rules. Over simplifying accuracy by only using completion percentage is faulty. All completion percentages are not created equal. You need to see the passes and factor in average yards per completion, yards after catch, competition level and surounding cast if you truly want to get a better read on accuracy. If you based your eval mostly on the completion percentage stat, you'd be out of a job
Looking at this year, McCoy's and LeFevour's high completion percentages are not as impressive as Clausen's or Tebow's. Clausen's yards per catch average was 12.9 and Tebow's -13.59 but Lefevour's was only 10.81 and McCoy's was 10.6. So Clausen and Tebow were asked to and able to throw the ball downfield more and/or their receivers were better able to gain yards after catch because they were hit in stride but McCoy and LeFevour's completions were more of the dink and dunk variety. LeFevour's numbers were also against lesser competition in the MAC.
Accuracy is a critical factor, but you really need to look at everything together and then you have to determine is the kid a football player and is he a leader. Personally I'd take a high character, tough leader with a big arm who can stretch the field with a sub 60% completion mark his last year over a dink and dunk weak armed QB with a high % completion percentage.
Jevon Snead as your 7th rated quarterback? Do you even watch football? The guy's absolute garbage. And why the lack of love for Dan LeFevour. If you're going to boast up Tebow, at least give LeFevour some love, the kid made things happen in small Central Mich.
Totally agree with 'Bryan' here. Each of the QB's in this year's class are developmental. NONE are day 1 starters (with the possible exception of Bradford, if healthy and on a bad team). LeFevour is in my estimation the best prospect out of the top 10, again, outside of Bradford. And Jevon Snead being ahead of him is an absolute joke. LeFevour does have the strength to make the deep stick throws and is accurate in short yardage and elusive in the pocket to buy time. He needs footwork and progression help and some help making the throws to the outside with more urgency, outside of that...He's a potential stud or a very capable long term backup in the league. Still, better value than most if not all the other QB's in this generally weak class.
Max Hall was 60-69 and 67% in his 3 years at BYU and has Brees and Montana-like physical attributes. These evaluators are the same people who were impressed with Alex Smith, Kyle Boller and Joey Harrington. How the heck can a "fullback from the 60's" scout possibly have any say in evaluating a QB? This time of year, coaches take over evaluations and "rising stock" occurs.
The rams definitely need a quarterback. They have been struggling for a long time for a quarterback. It is time to get one.
Tebow were asked to and able to throw the ball downfield more and/or their receivers were better able to gain yards after catch because they were hit in stride but McCoy and LeFevour's completions were more of the dink and dunk variety. LeFevour's numbers were also against lesser competition in the MAC.
It is all about completion percentage when you are a quarterback. This is one of biggest stats that coaches look at.
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Mar 11, 2010
03:34 PM
It would be interesting to see every quarterback drafted in the first round from 1997-2006 who *did* complete at least 60 percent of his passes during his final college season to see if the rate of failure was significantly different.