First of a two-part look inside their situations. Andrew Brandt
The winter freeze on player spending is thawing a bit with recent top-of-market extensions for D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Elvis Dumervil. Now we are in the midst annual mating ritual between for first-round picks and teams, with plenty to be spent in the coming days. Beyond all of this, there are the two white whales out there still unsigned past this season.
Peyton and Tom
Despite the ongoing labor battles, it is a minor upset that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady do not have contract extensions by now as camps begin. At the moment, both will become free agents in a matter of months. And, of course, they would be the biggest free agents in the league’s history, although neither would make their free agency LeBronesque.
ICONKraft has said the right things on a Brady extension but no deal yet.
Both owners -- the Colts’ Jim Irsay and the Patriots’ Robert Kraft -- have publicly stated the importance of their franchise quarterback but their actions to this point have not matched their words.
Like many teams, the Colts and Patriots have used the built-in excuse/impediment of the uncertain labor situation as shelter for not acting. While true that it would be better to know the new system prior to the commitment, Manning and Brady – an NFLPA alternate rep – understand the issues and, although will never make the issue public, are aware of lesser players being rewarded with top-of-market deals, albeit with “rolling” or “functional” guarantees rather than full and solid ones (more on that tomorrow).
Market to be set by a rookie
We hear much about veterans unhappy with the absurd amounts given to top rookies. In this case, the contracts of Matthew Stafford last year and Sam Bradford to come will become Exhibit A in these negotiations. Their agents – Manning is represented by the same agent as Stafford and Bradford – will use the expected $45 million-plus expected guarantee to Bradford as a starting point in negotiations.
As to the total value of these deals, that number has less meaning for players who are north of 30. The headlines will blare the total value of deals, those are just numbers on a page; the key is how much guaranteed and in what form.
Manning been there before
As surprising as it is that Manning has not yet been extended, there is history here. The Colts allowed Manning’s rookie contract to expire in 2004, placing an $18.4 million Franchise tag on him to give him enormous leverage to negotiate the then-highest contract in NFL history – by a good distance -- in both guarantee ($34.5 million bonus) and average per year ($14.17 million).
The Colts could repeat the past, allowing Manning to play out his contract and place the Franchise tag on him next year, assuming CBA negotiations keep the tag in place. The year-to-year strategy, even with the team’s signature player, is something that is probably being discussed. However, the owner made a public commitment to reward Manning back in December; the only issue becomes how much and for how long.
Contract negotiations are about allocation of risk. At age 27 in 2004, there was little risk to the Colts in rewarding Manning. At age 34 in 2010, there is more concern about future long-term risk. The Colts are not going to write a signing bonus in the range of the $34.5 million they gave him in 2004; the guaranteed money here will be more spread out, more layered, and potentially rolling.
Brady’s quiet dissent
Tom Brady is as skilled as any athlete in maintaining an impressive brand. He is staying clean here as well, keeping any rumbling of discontent quiet and far from the media.
Brady, as mentioned, is also an alternate union rep, the highest profile player to show interest and commitment to the collective bargaining process. He has a close relationship to the Krafts, but this is business, not personal.
The Patriots withstand player dissent as stoically as any team in the league. They simply do not react; they do not challenge players nor appease them. Player rumblings such as those of Logan Mankins this summer and many before him are simply ignored, left to twist in the wind without response.
The Krafts and Bill Belichick have great fondness for Brady but they, too, are businessmen. There is certainly discussion in the building how the team won eleven games with Matt Cassel at quarterback and about Brady turning 33 next week.
Now these two forces meet. The team will say all the right things about Brady, and Brady won’t say anything. My gut tells me the Patriots are not discussing a long-term contract with record-setting guarantees. I have no inside information on this, but my sense is they are presenting something to Brady that is more short-term in nature than long-term. We shall see.
Tomorrow I will look at some of the challenges in doing such significant deals in rewarding the player and protecting the future.
Follow me on Twitter at adbrandt.
Thanks for a well-thought out balanced perspective here. Your objective, non-sensationalist approach to these issues is very much appreciated.
Am a donkeys fan by nature, yet right there with them is the Pats as was born in Cambridge and lived in the Boston area through the 60's (Jim Nance was favorite player during that era)...anyway, here's my opine on Andrews concerns for Brady - the Pats will compensate him, and bonus him if you will for services rendered and reduction of contract cost to add talent; however, a long term (five year or above deal) does not make sense for the Pats - Brady's a great kid, has been everything they could've asked for, and hopefully has 3 - 5 yrs left in him, but IMO the Pats only want to payout for 3 or 4 years with Tom and see where his health is at that time...he could be a senior veteran stud like Montana & Favre were at that time and then get another dip into the pool, or as the Pats fear, he may be starting to physically break down and more limitations to his game may reduce his ability to win ballgames - as they say, time will tell...
Reigning Superbowl MVP QB Drew Brees spent 4 years as a player rep or assistant player rep before being elected to the far more exclusive and influential NFLPA Executive Committee this season where he serves along such union stallwarts as Mawae and Foxworth and Vrabel.
Tom likey became the Pat's assistant rep midway through last season because that waste of a roster spot AD was the 2009 NE player rep. Light took over the task again for 2010. Tom cares, don't get me wrong, but he tends to have a broader and less self absorbed view of the issues than most player reps. He understands that killing the goose does nothing to maintain golden egg production. He's more interested in keeping the goose productive while redistributing it's eggs more thoughtfully.
As for he and Peyton, both have been remarkable durable. What happened to Brady can happen to a $50M rookie, usually with more far reaching long range effects. They will both play at least another 5-6 seasons, possibly several. Their guarantees are not an issue in an age when guys like Favre and Warner command $12-13M in their dotage. Journeymen make as much as Brady is making this season. His cost per Lombardi over his career will likley never be matched...and he came within just over 2 minutes of another just 2 seasons ago. The issue is the teams inability to guarantee salary or option bonus language with fully guaranteed salary. If they want a deal like the rookies get with rolling supposedly "functional" guarantees they will get done. My guess is each decides it's better in the long run to roll the dice into 2011.
As for concerns about age and in Brady's case necessity, you can bank on the fact that Bill has also determined how many games a healthy Tom Brady would have won leading the 2008 and 2009 NEP vs. how many Matt Cassel would have won leading the surprisingly dynfunctional 2009 group while nursing a broken finger and however many cracked or broken ribs. Matt struggled just a tad performing amidst his own dynfunctional team last season.
Polian has indicated they will use the franchise tag if necessary in 2011. If you think the owners will part with that tool, then you are the tool. It was the foundation of FA from an ownership standpoint and has withstood court challenge and the test of time. They aren't letting it go on the eve of all those hamstrung RFA's (whom their own union sold out for a shot at an uncapped season that has been a crashing disappointment) achieving freedom. If there is no new CBA then being a UFA in a lockout won't mean much since everyone, players and owners alike, will be in limbo. And if the union decertifies to preclude a lockout, the rules in place will beome those contained in the last offer ownership placed on the table.
Manning may not see in excess of $34.5M in signing bonus alone on his next deal, but he will implicitly be guaranteed at least the same $47M or so as he saw in his last deal. And Brady will be in the same ballpark as opposed to $4M behind in AAV due largely to circumstance (Brady had 2 years remaining on his interim extension while Manning as you noted had played out his rookie deal and was tagged for $18M+ against an $80M cap...). If either QB agrees to do a deal with rolling functional guarantees, the cost of securing their own interests will be reflected within the deal. Even with Condon at the helm of his deal, Manning's should not raise the bar as exponentially at this juncture because the cap will not likely be increasing in that fashion for the duration of his deal, at the end of which he will be on the wrong side of 40.
Here is what I predict. Both deals will top the rookies and Eli for bonus, AAV, total value, % of fully guaranteed money, first three, whenever done. As they should. Shortly thereafter Brees will come in within spitting distance of the HOF locks. Rookies thereafter won't be topping them and driving the market once a rookie contract cap is secured, and neither should any non Lombardi winning QB extension for the forseeable future unless incompetent owners willfully continue to behave stupidly. Bet the Rooney's would welcome a do over, not to mention the Mara's and if things don't improve dramatically this season Jerry Jones and Jerry's Angelo's (former) bosses in Chicago will be rueing the day they needlessly undertook pre-emptive extensions. Nether the Colts or NE has or ever will rue the day they drafted or signed these guys to long term deals
I guess my real question is WHY ARE UNPROVEN ROOKIES GETTING SO MUCH MONEY?!?!?!?
Well Nick,
If you ever run into Tom Condon you might just ask him why since he was the little engine who drove that train. Condon was the NFLPA president before Gene Upshaw (whom he thereafter represented as an agent). Since then he has become the Agent to the Stars (representing the lions share of top ten draftees and most especially the mega QB's whose deals kept setting new marks by a substantial margin. He also represented Peyton Manning (as well as Eli) when his sea changing 2004 extension with $34.5M in signing bonus was negotiated. He basically held a wide range of owners desperate to get guys signed and into camp over barrels annually. About the only organization that ever stood up to him was NE. TE Ben Watson had to fire Condon in order to get his deal done and get into camp late in 2004.
Getting a cap on rookie contracts is going to be job 1 in a new CBA. Even the NFLPA can't oppose it because their members don't. The issue will be how that money gets divided up thereafter among competing groups that include owners looking for economic relief, veterans looking for better performance based pay or a better chance they don't get cut prematurely for cap reasons, and past and future retirees who got screwed for generations...
Yah T. Wedge ...WTG !
Not often a reader comment is more informative than the actual article
(they should give u some real copy space )
Keep up the good work !
shoes Jimmy Choo Shoes,Lacoste Shirts,Lacoste Shoes,LV Shoes,Paul Smith Shoes,Sebago Fashion Shoes and UGG boots
Air jordan(1-24)shoes Save: 32% off
UGG boota Save: 40% off
Tshirts (Polo ,ed hardy,lacoste) Save: 38% off
Bikini (Ed hardy) Save: 32% off
FREE SHIPPING
Teams don't react to agent and...
Denver signs and trades with no...
Rodgers' revenge, 18 games, Shawn...
Going inside the new top center...
Two years after death, strong...
Jul 27, 2010
11:09 AM
Andrew, Kraft has repeated many times that Brady will finish his career in New England if he wants to. This can be interpreted many ways. The fact of the matter is, Brady has taken at least one, but I believe several, pay-cuts and below-market deals to allow the Patriots to sign top talent elsewhere. The biggest manifestation of this was before the 2007 season when they traded for Moss and Welker, among others. Do you think Kraft will ask Brady to take another below-market deal to continue to fund talent elsewhere, especially with the contract given to Wilfork and the issues with Mankins? Is this even a factor? Or is the disagreement more fundamental in terms of length and guaranteed amount?