CFB gambling preview

Las Vegas odds, properly analyzed, tell us what the betting experts really think. Comparing the college football polls to the Las Vegas odds opens the door to interesting comparisons and conversation.

(Note: The odds stated below have been adjusted through a proprietary Pregame.com formula to remove the commission charged by sportsbooks. Without this adjustment, the odds against a result are understated substantially, sometimes upward of 50 percent. For example, an event whose true odds are 10-1 against will often be incorrectly stated as 7-1 against. The difference is in the commission charged by the sportsbook. As a result, there is an overstatement of the chances of the event happening. The failure of nearly all widely circulated odds to account for this adjustment makes those numbers unreliable and misleading.)

APFlorida QB Tim Tebow.

Five teams with the best chance to win the National Championship:

Florida: 5 to 1

USC: 13 to 1

Texas: 14 to 1

Oklahoma: 14 to 1

Ohio State: 19 to 1

Florida is projected to have more than DOUBLE the chance of winning it all than any other team. This makes sense when you consider that Florida’s domination in the 2009 preseason polls is unmatched in college football history. Meanwhile, the top five teams combined have approximately a 50 chance chance at the National Championship. This fact lends itself to an interesting proposition: Who do you think has a better chance to win it all -- Florida, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, and Ohio State OR every other team in the country? I’ve asked this of probably 100 sports fans over the past few weeks – with over 90 percent choosing the top five teams. I’ve never known Vegas to underestimate the chances of marquee teams (because the oddsmakers know the public likes to bet these teams), yet that just may be the case this season.

APTexas coach Mack Brown.

BCS Conferences (percentage chance at National Championship):

SEC: 25 percent (9 teams)

Big 12: 20 percent (10 teams)

Big 10: 19 percent (7 teams)

Pac 10: 15 percent (8 teams)

ACC: 14 percent (11 teams)

Big East: 8 percent (6 teams)

Clearly, the lowest regarded BCS Conference is the Big East. Its top ranked team is Rutgers at No. 25 (91 to 1 against), and the entire conference has only an 8 percent chance of winning the BCS. Surprisingly, the ACC has the most teams in the top 54, with 11 of their 12 teams making the grade (minus only Duke). Although the SEC has been renowned as the best conference for a number of years now, consider that if you remove Florida's chance from the SEC's number, the combined chance of its remaining teams is only 8 percent.

Notice that Florida as a team has a better chance of winning it all than any CONFERENCE other than the Big 12 or Big 10. This fact lends itself to an interesting proposition: Who do you think as a better chance at the National Championship: Florida or the entire Pac 10? My informal polling of this question has been split right down the middle.

Boise State is the highest rated non-BSC school at No. 13 (46 to 1 against); the only other non-BCS school is Utah at No. 50 (163 to 1). A total of 54 teams have been deemed worthy of individual odds; the chances are only 3 percent that a team outside the top 54 will be crowned the BCS champion.

APOle Miss QB Jevan Snead.

Two teams are massively OVERRATED in the opinion of Las Vegas: Mississippi, ranked No. 10 in the USA Today poll, is NOT considered one of the Top 54 teams based on the odds. And neither is TCU, ranked No. 17 in the USA Today poll. One has to wonder whether these exclusions are a purposeful statement on the quality of Ole Miss and TCU, or if this is a case of a bookmaker’s oversight.

One team is clearly UNDERATED in the opinion of Las Vegas: Miami (Fla.), not even ranked by USA Today, is a surprisingly high No. 15 according to Vegas. With Miami playing four ranked teams in its first four games, we’ll have an early chance to see if the Hurricanes are for real.

RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com, the largest sports betting website compliant with U.S. law. 

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