Early game notes and matchups to watch in title games. Matt Bowen
With Championship Sunday coming up this weekend, let’s discuss things to watch in both the AFC and NFC title games: schemes, game plans, matchups and some X’s and O’s that could lead to a Super Bowl appearance.
AFC Championship
N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis, 3 p.m. (EST), CBS
Early Line: Colts –7 ½
…How do the Colts get Reggie Wayne involved in the game plan? Last week against the Ravens, Wayne was a no-show until the second half when Indy started using him more in the 3-step game: the smash route, the slant, hitch etc. Wayne finished with eight receptions for 63 yards and a TD. Sunday, we can expect the Jets to use CB Darrelle Revis on Wayne exclusively when he’s aligned outside the numbers. However, look for the Colts to align Wayne out of position and move him around the field. They can use him inside in the slot, in both the “X” and the “Z” alignments, and use pre-snap movement to get him a free release off the line of scrimmage. Why? Because Revis is just that good when it comes to the Jets’ man-to-man schemes. But Wayne will have to find a way to produce on Sunday.
…It should be interesting to watch Colts QB Peyton Manning in his pre-snap reads. Don’t be shocked to see Manning bleed the play clock close to zero in order to read and adjust to Rex Ryan’s pressure schemes. The key for the Jets: hold their disguise and don’t tip off Manning and show which direction the pressure is coming from. If you show Manning what you are doing before the snap, he’ll try and exploit it.
…More Sanchez. I’ve been a big supporter of the Jets’ game plan through the wild card and divisional rounds, but Sunday might be the day Jets QB Mark Sanchez has to make a big play in the fourth quarter. Can he do it? Protecting Sanchez with the running game and Ryan’s defense is the right plan for the Jets, but if they fall behind, we’ll get to see Sanchez in a high-pressure situation on a huge playoff stage. I expect him to throw the slant, the fade and use the boot and play action to get the ball down the field, but I still want to see him make a big play on a crucial third down in the fourth quarter — when he has to take a five-step drop and deliver the ball.
…Speaking of the Jets running game, it will be interesting to see how Bill Callahan’s offensive line matches up against the Indy front seven. One thing I noticed in watching the Ravens’ first two playoff games was the difference in speed and athleticism between the Colts and the Patriots up front. Indy can shed blocks, it can run to the football, and it’s solid in its gap control when it comes to the running game. RBs Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones are still the meat and potatoes of the Jets offense, but Sunday they’ll face the best front seven they’ve seen in the playoffs. It is a good matchup, and we’ll see if the Jets keep the ball inside the tackles when it comes to the running game or if they challenge the Colts — and their speed — by running the ball in the outside zone scheme.
NFC Championship
Minnesota at New Orleans, 6:40 p.m. (EST), FOX
Early line: Saints –3 ½
...More Reggie Bush. Keep Bush involved, use him creatively and give him those 10 to 15 touches on Sunday (including the kicking game) in the hope he turns one into a big play. We saw a healthy, determined Bush last week in the win over Arizona, and I still see him as a major matchup issue for the Vikings if coach Sean Payton uses him out of the backfield — especially on third downs when the Saints use their empty sets. I’ll bet on Bush vs. a nickel or dime corner every time when he needs to make a play.
…How does Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams set up Brett Favre? I expect Williams to put pressure on Favre early in the game, and when the Saints play coverage in the back end, look for some example of Cover 7 — a combo coverage between the corner and the safety. This coverage is designed to allow the defensive backs to jump routes with the protection of another defender if the wide receiver converts his route up the field. By doing this, Williams can give his players an opportunity to make a play by putting them in the proper positions. But don’t discount the pressure packages that he’ll dial up against Favre — because Favre is too good in the pocket when you allow him to get creative with the ball.
…Can the Saints match up physically with the Vikings’ offensive and defensive lines? The Vikings made the Cowboys look soft up front last Sunday, and when that front four can get to the quarterback like they did against Tony Romo, it takes a lot of pressure off the Minnesota secondary. I expect the Vikings’ game plan on offense to test the Saints early with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to see if they can work the ball down the field in the running game — which will set up the vertical passing game for Favre. And if this turns into a game that’s controlled by clock management and setting up third-and-manageable situations, it might play into the Vikings’ favor.
…I like Drew Brees and the Saints’ wide receivers against the Minnesota secondary. The Vikings lack playmakers in the back end, and if they’re forced to play man coverage, Brees should find throwing lanes. However, one reason Brees is so successful can be traced to his ability to throw the ball to the back shoulder — or the up field shoulder — depending on the leverage he sees from the defender. Expect the Vikings’ secondary to be tested.
…I can see Williams playing coverage on third downs if his defense can limit Peterson. And with that comes the issue of how you defend Percy Harvin. Do the Saints play a form of Cover 1 Robber, or do they go into a Cover 2 shell with FS Darren Sharper playing over the top of Sidney Rice and protecting the sidelines and the 9-routes down the field? Harvin had only one reception in the Dallas win, but he’ll need to be more involved and will need to produce on third downs inside the numbers — where he can run away from the defender’s leverage and catch the ball with an open field to work with.
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Best strategy for the Vikes D is to sit back in coverage using the four man rush. Keep everything in front of them, limit the plays down the field and make the Saints kick field goals. Vikes D can't stop the Saints from scoring but they can limit it by shrinking the field once the Saints get in the Red Zone. Saints kicking FG's = Viking Win
Colts should go to the no huddle immediately to limit the Jets pre-snap movement. If Peyton can get a a read on that defense and score early the Jets will be forced to play out of character. No huddle will win it for the Colts.
"...More Reggie Bush. Keep Bush involved…How does Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams set up Brett Favre?…Can the Saints…I like Drew Brees and the Saints’ wide receivers…I can see Williams playing coverage on third downs." Those sir, are your sentances to open every paragraph of the Saint vs. Vikes notes.
Please, Matt, this is hardly analysis...every point you made came from a Saints perspective. Can't you guys over here at NFP give MN any love at all? Are we that hateable?
When I look at this game position by position, MN has an equal if not stronger player in every catagory outside of CB and Safety...QB, RB, slot reciever, wideouts, OL, DE, DT...and I'm not saying NO isn't good, because their players are obviously very good. As a MN Fan, I feel quite confidant about this game outside of the fact we'll be visiting in a dome enviroment. Give us a little bit of credit, Matt "love me some Texan's Bowen"
@Prior Lake
I actually took Matt's post as a knock on the Saints. He is saying what Williams has to do in order to stop Favre, Harvin and Rice. Sounds like he is elanign towards the Vikes the way I read it.
Calm down.
It's interesting that everyone seems to think that the Saints will have an easy day against the Vikings defense based upon how many big plays they're capable of making.
Dallas led the league in plays of 20+ yards coming into Minnesota last week. They left without one play of 20+ yards. Believe me, that was the focus of Frazier going into the game and it will be the focus this week. I like Minnesota's chances of limiting the big play again. Now, the Saints will still be able to move the ball underneath sure, but if the Vikings are successful in limiting the big plays again I see them taking the game.
Saints backup tackle vs. Jared Allen.
We gave up 2 TDs to Bush on punt returns in NO last yr, in a 3 point win. Obviously 2 different teams now. They have the D that can create the turnovers now. We have a more balanced offense, more consistent special teams play both ways. Should be great. I hope, since the playoffs have been below avg in terms of 4th qtr excitement.
PRIOR LAKE
yes, you are.
fairly good analisys IMO.
brees will have to go deep to beat MN. the vikings will employ the defensive scenario laid out by CW7, just as they did against DAL. there will be points to be had over the top if brees can avoid the 4 man rush.
Sanchez throws more TD's then Manning and the Jets beat Indy 27-20. Saints sack Favre 4 times and Favre throws 3 picks, NO wins 34-17
Matt, you mentioned "Vikings" or a Vikings player in the second sentence of every paragraph of the NFC portion. You call this analysis? Where's the love for the Saints?
Jim makes a good point about how the Vikings limited the Cowboys down the field. I was quite surprised that Romo didn't take any real shots deep. Credit the Vikings' pressure.
Penny Pincher, are you Vikings fans that hateable? Speaking from our perspective in Titletown, you bet.
Other than the superbowl years, without Farve the Packers would have clearly been the Browns during his years there. He carried so many weak teams. While trying to do so much he ended up throwing many interceptions. The Vikings may lose this weekend, he may throw some picks, but they have been lucky to habe him. He may throw four TDs and go to another Superbowl. You Packer fans don't realize nor appreciate what you had.
I don't have time for any fancy analysis.
Vikings by 17.
Indy by 10.
Indy wins The Bowl.
Ya' smoked it hear first!
Matt,
" the China route, the slant ", Are you serious? This blatant lack of thought and intelligence to put such an insensitive and racial term in this column and on this site is just plain asinine. In this politically correct world we live in now, I can't believe you would not have more sense. This antediluvian mind set is wrong. I am perturbed that no one proof read this before posting it, and If it was, why would red flags and alarms not go off. It is ignominious that nationalfootballpost.com would even post this article with that type of jargon. I have loss all respect for you Mr. Bowen. My respect is waning for Mr. Brandt to let such erroneous behavior to continue and be employed. You have loss a once dedicated reader. Good day, sir.
Hey Rouge,
Do some research before you spout off on claims like that. You are so full of crap.
The "China" and "Slant" route are both 3-step routes in any football playbook. People like you make the world a stupid place and are just looking for ways to cause tension.
Go home and stay there.
Everyone thinks the Aints offense is back. Let's slow down and think about it. They rolled up 45 points on a spent team, that had given up 90 points in the last 2 games. The last 3 games before, the Aints offense was shut down by Tampa, Carolina and Dallas. Everyone last week said the Cowboys would shred the Vikes secondary. That didn't turn out so good, did it? The Vikings are undefeated on artificial surface this season, and Farve has never lost to the Aints in his 19 year career. The Vikes have the best defense of all 4 of the remaining teams, and everyone knows, DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS.
Keith,
" Go home and stay there ", is that your new way of saying go back to my own country? Is that the new politically correct way white hate, white hooded, bomber jacket wearing, steel toe shoes, shaved head clowns are taught to term it now? Dumb@$$es like you are what's wrong with the world. So get the crap from between your ears cleaned out.
Like I don't know what a slant route is. If you had any reading comprehension, which I doubt highly, you would have known my post was about maybe phrasing " the china route, slant " differently. How about saying the something along the lines of oh I don't know.... maybe the backbone of the west coast offense, the slant. I don't doubt that NFL clubs have dub the slant route " the china route ", but to put that up on this site in an article is idiotic. Like this site is not visited by Asian-Americans who would find that offensive? Get a clue Keith.
Go join your boy Rush on the Haiti bashing why don't you Keith. I was really hoping the phrase in this article would have been reword and Mr. Bowen offering up an apology, but I see that will not happen. The troglodytes like you Keith, are the reason Americans are viewed as stupid and backwards brutes. By the way: Keith is the most unattractive name for a male according to " The Family Guy ". Peace out.
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Jan 20, 2010
02:18 PM
Brees should be able to light up that secondary if they can block Jared Allen.