Coaching carousel: Big four plus one

Several respected observers, including our own Michael Lombardi, have called this is a very strange year in the NFL, a result of more really bad teams than at any point in recent memory. The league hasn’t been this stratified since the start of the salary cap era, and you may have to look back to the 1970s to find such a spread in a league that prides itself on parity.

APFormer Steelers head coach Bill Cowher is one of a handful of big-name free agent coaches on the market.

No one has root-caused any of this yet, but one recent trend may likely fall by the wayside – the trend toward the younger, inexperienced head coach. It isn’t that younger coaches are any worse statistically over time or that big-name coaches cost extra money. But owners looking to win the press conference and cover their behinds will be looking to the big four – Bill Cowher, Mike Holmgren, Jon Gruden and Mike Shanahan (and maybe their cheaper, slightly less desirable brother, Brian Billick) -- this December.

All have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. All will want salaries in excess of $5 million per year. But if Eric Mangini makes $3 million from the Browns, shouldn’t Cowher or Holmgren ask for at least twice that? If you’re team owner whose season may be all but over now, aren’t you going to think about turning to someone who has done this thing before?

Younger, cheaper coaches certainly have their place. In fact, Denver may have already forgotten about Shanahan and Jay Cutler with the success of Josh McDaniels. But when there are empty seats, soft sponsorship and sinking luxury-box revenues – and you’re mired at the bottom of the division – there will be a cry for savior coaches, ones who can excite a community and an offseason and keep fans from blaming the owner.

Can either Dallas or Washington compete in the NFC East with the coaching staffs they currently have? The answer is a resounding no. Their owners will pay, and it’s likely that the NFC East in 2010 will be the division with the highest-paid coaches in history. But what other pressures will the presence of the big four (plus one) have on the coaching markets as a whole?

College hiring now open season

APJon Gruden's name is already being tossed around on the college coaching circuit.

Well, for one thing, they will prompt college athletic directors to get aggressive early. Louisville athletic director Tom Jurich needs a good hire to help maintain his own job after the lack of success of his football program. His October run at Gruden is an example of how early the coaching-search game is going to be played this year. Colorado is likely to fire Dan Hawkins, and it may want to think about trying to woo Shanahan -- who built a house so big that it may stretch all the way from Denver to Boulder – before the NFL has an intriguing opening.

You will also see lesser NFL coaches who are either already on the outside or are likely to be fired at some point this year getting involved with college jobs much earlier. Don’t expect the Gruden-to-Louisville rumors to be an isolated report. In fact, several NFL head coaches who could be on hotter seats may have their agents looking at likely collegiate openings.

Others coaches could be on the way out, and some who are currently without jobs may not have opportunities if any of the big four decides to get back in. But all is not lost; those coaches may opt to look at the college ranks, with possible openings at Louisville, Colorado, Washington State, Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, Florida State, UNLV and Memphis all rumored. Notre Dame, now that Charlie Weis has lost again to USC, may join them.

Will I get paid in 2011?

One last reason that college jobs will be especially attractive in 2010 is the possibility of a lockout in 2011. NFL teams have coaches sign no- or low-pay clauses in the event of a work stoppage. If you’re an NFL head coach who has one of these clauses in your contract, or you’re on the outside (keep in mind that there will be nothing to broadcast either) and there’s a lockout, you may seek the security of a college job. With college jobs, there cannot be labor disputes, and you’re likely to get a five-year deal out of the gate.

Compare a college contract at $2 million per year over five years to a pro contract at $3 million per year over three years, and you have a close call that may tilt toward the NFL deal. You earn the money faster – something that your agent certainly likes. Now, throw in a possibility of not getting paid for a year in 2011, and the college deal looks far more attractive.

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