Brandt breaks down the deal after talking to sources on both sides. Andrew Brandt
After reviewing the terms of the just-signed contract between Michael Crabtree and the San Francisco 49ers and talking with sources on both sides, the deal looks like a fair one, albeit a month late. Here is a summary:
Term
The contract is for six years. It will void to five years upon the occurrence of the following:
(1) Crabtree makes one Pro Bowl in the first four years of the contract AND in the first five years of the contract, in a year other than the year he makes the Pro Bowl, Crabtree plays in 80% of the team’s offensive plays and the team makes the playoffs in that year;
OR
(2) Crabtree makes one Pro Bowl in the first four years of the contract AND in the first five years of the contract, in a year other than the year he makes the Pro Bowl, is named All-NFL and the team makes the playoffs in that year;
OR
(3) Crabtree makes two Pro Bowls in the first five years of the contract.
Thus, the six-year contract becomes a five-year contract in any of the three ways above.
Analysis: The 49ers are more likely than not to own rights to Crabtree through 2014, a year where Crabtree makes a pre-escalator salary of $4M. The void conditions require Crabtree to perform at a high level, although not Jerry Rice-like. The term is surprising given recent deals by Eugene Parker, but offset by other issues.
Total Guarantee
$17M
Analysis: $17M is 700,000 below the total guarantee for the pick before Crabtree, B.J. Raji of the Packers, although Raji negotiated a five-year deal. The 49ers can certainly feel good about this slotted number.
Cash Flow
The following comparison shows how much money will be made over the relevant time frames between Raji and Crabtree (in millions):
Raji Crabtree
3-Year 18.16 19
4-Year 20.53 23
5-Year 23 28
Analysis: This is where Parker and Crabtree were able to score, figuring that it was more important to have strong three, four and five-year cash flow rather than guarantee and term. Although the total guarantee number is certainly a benchmark for agents and players, the fact that Crabtree will receive the above amounts in years where he very unlikely to be released, especially prior to playing three or four years, is significant.
Escalator Package
$8M
Analysis: The $8M package does require some hard-to-earn levels of performance, especially in an offense that may not prove to be receiver-friendly.
Structure
The 49ers were also able to negotiate a “salary advance” structure to give them protection and forfeiture ability.
Analysis: The salary advance structure, in theory, gives the team some recovery ability compared to option bonuses due to the Ashley Lelie decision. A few teams -- Carolina and Denver among them -- have used this structure. As to whether there would be an arbitrator who would allow recovery -- and there would be money to recover -- that is speculative at this point.
First-Year Payout
The 49ers will pay Crabtree a full seventeen-week salary over fourteen weeks. In other words, Crabtree was going to get $1.83M in salary for 2009 in the 49ers offer in July. Crabtree is still going to get $1.83M in salary. The contract will read $2.39M with $1.83M guaranteed, as 13/17 of the $2.39M is $1.83M.
Analysis: Though relatively small in an amount, Crabtree suffered no penalty for his holdout in terms of first-year payout. That is a testament to the respect the team has for Parker and the feeling that the holdout was not only the fault of one side. Kudos to the 49ers for agreeing to this and kudos to Parker for securing it.
The Wait: The offer on the table for Parker and Crabtree of a couple days ago was:
Five years, $20M, $16M guaranteed.
The final deal is:
Six years, $32M ($28M over the first five), $17M guaranteed.
Analysis: Many have speculated that Crabtree took the same deal he was being offered for weeks, if not months, by the team. Parker and Crabtree may have made $8M over the next five years with their trip to San Francisco yesterday.
Hopefully the above data points out the strengths and weaknesses of this deal from both sides. It was a win for the team on some things and a win for the player on others, a deal that neither side feels great about. That usually means it is a good deal for both sides.
This was quite a saga, with a final face-to-face meeting spurred by a chance meeting between 49ers president and owner Jed York and MC Hammer at a social function. Only in the NFL....
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I know your articles don't always get lots of posts, because they're more "information heavy" rather than opinions, like Lombardi's or Bowen's. But let me say I GREATLY enjoy these, because it gives me a better sense of what's really happening on the business end of things.
One question: how is this "staying in slot" if the 3, 4, and 5-year numbers exceed Raji by so much? Didn't the 49ers cave?
Can you explain more about the chance meeting with York and Hammer. With the full part Hammer played in this?
I'm going to quote from SonocoNinerFan at the 49er Webzone:
"Raji's base deal is 5 Years at $22.9 Million, but he has a "likely to earned" incentive that pays him a one-time $5.22 Million bonus if he plays more than 35% of the defensive snaps in ANY given year of the contract, so basically if Raji is still breathing his base contract value is actually 5 years at $28.12 Million, or $5.62 Million per year.
Crabtree's base is 6 years, $32.0 Million with "unlikely to be earned" incentives triggered by Pro-Bowl appearances. So Crabtree's base will likely remain 6 years, $32.0 Million or $5.33 Million per year, or giving the benefit of the doubt, we could use the pro-rated math of 5.75 years (since he's in the building and working after 25% of the season) which would be $5.57 Million per year.
So, with a straight face, I say the Niners held the slot in every practical way."
This looks like a very favorable deal for the Niners. The void conditions are serious (especially in that offense) and the guaranteed money is pretty low. Most importantly, the Niners have a lot of control over how the contract will play out.
If I'm Michael Crabtree, I'm pretty pissed at Eugene Parker. This sort of deal does not appear to be worth the harm his young career has suffered on account of the holdout. It seems this situation got out of Parker's control quickly, whether it was his idea to holdout or Crabtree's "inner circle" demanded that he sit for more money. Brant has implied that it was Crabtree's circle that somehow urged the holdout--something I seriously doubt.
Personally I think Parker calculated this holdout from the start. He wanted to break the "slotted salary" barrier and he thought he had the perfect situation. Brant seems to think Parker had chosen week four as a pre-set time to return to the table. Perhaps, but I think Parker expected to have more leverage by this point. Instead of the niners having an 1-3/0-4 record and fans calling for Scott and Jed's heads, the team is winning without him. No leverage, thus the poor kid gets a deal he could have inked with a better negotiator in the summer.
I feel bad for Michael Crabtree. He's been ripped apart in the press for months, called out by countless hall of famers, and now the pressure for him to perform immediately is enormous. I hope he has it in him to succeed as a football player, but I think we can all agree that his agent's decisions over the past months have made his task a lot harder.
Just wanted to add my thanks for the analysis. Most local stories (SF) are making this out to be more of a win for the team than your analysis does, but they clearly weren't as thorough.
Yes, very good analysis Andrew. I agree with Rich's points as well. Parker's plan failed miserably, but Crabtree and to an extent the Niners will pay the price.
Not quite sure what logic leads to the statement "Parker's plan failed miserably". I guess maneater didn't understand the "good" analysis he read.
Financially, the "hold out" didn't cost Crabtree a penny and he got the Niner offer upped from 5 years/$20m to 6 years/$32m with $1m extra guaranteed. I don't earn millions a year but even I can see Crabtree's deal is way better than the one the Niners offered in June.
The sad part is that the Niners put so little effort in getting the deal done. If MC Hammer was the one that got them together across a table, that doesn't say much for the Niner Front Office. Seems they let their fans down in a big way.
02Niner,
He had to agree to a six year deal, which is the last thing he wanted. The last year is at a pretty cheap level, not at all like the Fitzgerald deal that nearly broke the Cards. His incentives will be virtually impossible to obtain. Considering the total package, his deal is worth less than Raji and a heck of a lot worse than Heywood Beys, which seemed to be his target all along. Parker's plan was to break the slot system. Clearly he failed. He wrecked Crabtree's rookie year in the process.
Try to pay attention in the future so I don't have to repeat things for you.
I have heard that Super Fly will be flying out to San Francisco once released from the old folks home in New York to meet with Hammer, they will be starting a new sports agency and Parker is already onboard.
Parker knew he blew it for his client. He was so embarrased that he refused to sit in on the press conference ,as he would have done if he had won a victory over the Niners. He thought he could break the slotting system and then would be seen as THE top player advocate and would be offered a seat at the CBA talks that are coming soon. These talks might change the face of the NFL ,and Parker wanted to be THE voice . Parker failed miserably and if anything he lost future clients who have seen how poorly he represented his client (a 22 year old ,naiev kid,who is a good kid but ignorant and easily deceived by the shark of an agent.).
The Niners took Parker behind the woodshed and punished him.He crawled on hands and knees to Santa Clara and took what he could have got in July (or what a decent negotiator could have got). The Niners had said long ago that they were willing to go as high as $1 under the Raji deal. Parker could of had a better deal than he settled for. And it was Parker pulling the kids strings,not Crabtree. Crabtree has always been a gret kid and great team mate and never a problem on or off the field,never a Diva.
ouble dipping. For one thing, Crabtree will help put butts in seats for playoff games the next decade. Crabtree is one of those rare players who comes along every so often. In 2 weeks, people will be saying how stupid KC, Cleveland, and Oakland were to pass on him. In a decade,
Andrew Brandt, who writes about the business of football for the National Football Post, is an accomplished sports executive with more than 20 years' experience in professional football.
It took a long time for San Fran to sign Crabtree but is was worth it. He is such an amazing talent with great speed. He will be a great receiver.
I am definitely a big fan of crabtree since college. He is going to be a great pro.
Crabtree if definitely worth his salary. I am sure he will strengthen the 49er's!
The sad part is that the Niners put so little effort in getting the deal done. If MC Hammer was the one that got them together across a table, that doesn't say much for the Niner Front Office. Seems they let their fans down in a big way.
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Oct 07, 2009
09:55 PM
Great Article! Thanks for helping me understand the deal.