QUOTE: “A pessimist is one who makes difficulties of his opportunities and an optimist is one who makes opportunities of his difficulties.” -- Harry S Truman
Currently, as we enter Week 7 of the season, there are six NFC teams with 3-2 records:
- Dallas and Philadelphia from the NFC East
- Chicago and Green Bay from the NFC North
- San Francisco and Arizona from the NFC West
Only the two teams from the NFC West are in first place. The Atlanta Falcons, at 4-1, have a wild-card lead over the other four. So which teams are the best 3-2 teams, and which ones have a chance to make a playoff run, whether as a wild card or an eventual division titlist?
Here’s my analysis:
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have beaten three teams, but I’m not sure they have a solid win among any of them. On opening day, they beat a very bad Tampa Bay team yet struggled to shut down the Bucs’ pedestrian passing game. Their other wins came in overtime against the Chiefs and an impressive second-half comeback against the Panthers. Are the 2009 Cowboys good enough to be a Super Bowl team and go on a 10-game winning streak? Not unless they fix their secondary, which right now is allowing opposing quarterbacks a 94-plus quarterback rating, 27th in the NFL. They struggle to handle the pass, especially when they haven’t been able to generate any pass rush. Their inflated numbers on offense in terms of yards is impressive, ranking ninth overall.
Cowboy Nation will be up in arms if this team doesn’t reach the playoffs, especially my man John M, but to get there, the Cowboys must prove in the next 11 games that they’ve improved their pass rush, their passing game on offense and their inconsistencies overall as a team. Here are their remaining games:
Oct. 25 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Nov. 1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Nov. 8 at Philadelphia Eagles
Nov. 15 at Green Bay Packers
Nov. 22 vs. Washington Redskins
Nov. 26 (Thurs.) vs. Oakland Raiders
Dec. 6 at New York Giants
Dec. 13 vs. San Diego Chargers
Dec. 19 (Sat.) at New Orleans Saints
Dec. 27 at Washington Redskins
Jan. 3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday’s game will have playoff implications since the winning team will hold the advantage in the head-to-head battle if both are in the wild-card race. The December schedule must make Cowboy fans nervous because this has never been a strong finishing team under coach Wade Phillips’ administration.
Philadelphia Eagles: They always seem to have one game a year when the wheels fall off, and of course, quarterback Donovan McNabb takes all the heat — yet somehow they rally back during the season. Is this Eagles team good enough to make a Super Bowl run? Playoffs, yes. Super Bowl, no. Every game I’ve viewed on tape, they’ve exhibited flaws, particularly in their ability to generate a pass rush, which helps hide their secondary. Even against the Bucs, when they ran their zero blitz schemes (no player in the middle of the field), they weren’t always effective getting to the quarterback. The Bucs moved the ball via their passing game, which had to cause some concern inside the Eagles’ offices. Then the Raiders game again exposed this area, and as the season moves along and the Birds face better passing teams, this shortcoming will very hard to hide.
Trading for Will Witherspoon as their new Mike backer is not going to help solve the problems. Witherspoon is a Will-type backer and needs to be able to flow to the football and not be a downhill backer, which the Eagle defensive scheme needs from their Mike backer. They made the move to help, but I’m not sure it will. Here’s their remaining schedule:
Oct. 26 (Mon.) at Washington Redskins
Nov. 1 vs. New York Giants
Nov. 8 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Nov. 15 at San Diego Chargers
Nov. 22 at Chicago Bears
Nov. 29 vs. Washington Redskins
Dec. 6 at Atlanta Falcons
Dec. 13 at New York Giants
Dec. 20 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Dec. 27 vs. Denver Broncos
Jan. 3 at Dallas Cowboys
The Bears and Falcons games will be crucial games away from the NFC East. For the Cowboys and Eagles, a loss to the ‘Skins, either home or away, might put them on the sidelines at playoff time.
Chicago Bears: I like the Bears but worry about their offensive line, especially on the road. They play very well at home, but problems on their line (right tackle, center) will be exposed on the road with all the crowd noise. The Bears are a dangerous team because their coaches are learning more about the players every game, and that education will allow them to feel more comfortable in their talent level. Yes, the secondary is marginal, but the way they’re playing in their defensive line, I feel they can mask their lack of coverage men.
Jay Cutler’s ability to protect the ball will be key, but his ability to make plays in the pass game is what can separate the Bears from the rest of the 3-2 pack. Here’s their schedule:
Oct. 25 at Cincinnati Bengals
Nov. 1 vs. Cleveland Browns
Nov. 8 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Nov. 12 (Thurs.) at San Francisco 49ers
Nov. 22 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Nov. 29 at Minnesota Vikings
Dec. 6 vs. St. Louis Rams
Dec. 13 vs. Green Bay Packers
Dec. 20 at Baltimore Ravens
Dec. 28 (Mon.) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Jan. 3 at Detroit Lions
Tough road ahead for the Bears as they face four of the six teams that are in the 3-2 category.
Green Bay Packers: If the Packers can get their offensive line problems fixed — which won’t be easy -- they can separate themselves from this cluster. I’m worried about their lack of pressure on the passer, but once they get early leads on teams, they can scheme pressure. Plus, I’m counting on Aaron Kampman playing at a higher level. The Packers were searching for a big-time back at the trading deadline but failed to find one and settled for Ahman Green, who is just 46 yards away from breaking Jim Taylor’s team rushing record (by the way, I loved watching Jim Taylor run).
Oct. 25 at Cleveland Browns
Nov. 1 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Nov. 8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nov. 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Nov. 22 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Nov. 26 (Thurs.) at Detroit Lions
Dec. 7 (Mon.) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Dec. 13 at Chicago Bears
Dec. 20 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Dec. 27 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Jan. 3 at Arizona Cardinals
The Packers play four of the six 3-2 teams in the next 11 games, and each one will have playoff implications. If they lose next week against the Vikings, they’ll be hoping for a wild-card bid, making every one of those games against 3-2 teams more important.
Arizona Cardinals: The Cards are now a passing team, and we’ll find out Sunday in New York if they can find a way to play well on the road in the East. Other than the playoff game against the Panthers, the Cards have never been effective in the eastern time zone. However, the larger issue concerning the Cards is whether they’ve made the right adjustments to be NFC West champions. Their offensive line is always a concern, especially at left tackle, where Mike Gandy doesn’t always rise to the level of competition and affects the team’s ability to throw the ball in big games.
Oct. 25 at New York Giants
Nov. 1 vs. Carolina Panthers
Nov. 8 at Chicago Bears
Nov. 15 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Nov. 22 at St. Louis Rams
Nov. 29 at Tennessee Titans
Dec. 6 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Dec. 14 (Mon.) at San Francisco 49ers
Dec. 20 at Detroit Lions
Dec. 27 vs. St. Louis Rams
Jan. 3 vs. Green Bay Packers
I believe the NFC West will have only one playoff team, so the battles in the division are the most critical.
San Francisco 49ers: They must hope their defense can carry them for the rest of the season and their offense doesn’t make mistakes. The 49ers’ style of play is essential to how they win, and once they’re removed from their comfort zone, they don’t have the capability to play catch-up. Their defense is solid and physical but will struggle to handle the good passing teams in the league.
The 49ers have to hope that rookie Michael Crabtree can make some big plays in the passing game. They won’t be a playoff team if they don’t get their yards-per-pass-attempt above 6.0, which means an increase of one yard.
Oct. 25 at Houston Texans
Nov. 1 at Indianapolis Colts
Nov. 8 vs. Tennessee Titans
Nov. 12 (Thurs.) vs. Chicago Bears
Nov. 22 at Green Bay Packers
Nov. 29 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Dec. 6 at Seattle Seahawks
Dec. 14 (Mon.) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Dec. 20 at Philadelphia Eagles
Dec. 27 vs. Detroit Lions
Jan. 3 at St. Louis Rams
The key to the 49ers’ success in reaching the playoffs will be how many good passing teams they face. The next two weeks might be a huge challenge.
Today in the Tavern, I’ll rank the teams.
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The Eagles miss Stewart Bradley badly. The panic signing of Trotter and now trade for Witherspoon really shows how desperately they needed Bradley. And the way the secondary is ( NOT) tackling, its clear they miss Dawkins too. I feel like they'll need the offense to carry them this year if they're going anywhere, I don't trust this defense at all.
I'm a GB fan and they seem to have the upper leg in the article, but I think otherwise. I'm leaving out AZ and SF whom I think are playing for a DIV title. In looking through schedule for most certain losses (MCL) and adding one not expected loss, I see it this way.
DAL likely finish 10-6
- 3 MCL at NYG, at NO, and either at GB or at PHI
PHI likely finish 8-8
- 5 MCL vs NYG, at NYG, at CHI, at DAL, either vs SF vs DEN or at ATL
CHI likely finish 9-7
- 4 MCL at SF, at MIN, at BAL and either vs GB vs AZ or at CIN
GB likely finish 8-8
- 5 MCL at AZ, vs DAL, at PIT, at CHI, and either vs MIN vs SF or vs BAL
The article is a bit confusing.
First, the battle of the west really comes down to two teams: Arizona or SF and only one will get in (there is no hope for Sea at this point?).
The real meat of the article is the idea only one team out of Philly, Dallas, Bears and Green Bay will get the 2nd wildcard spot and who currently has the advantage.
I will be the first to say, I think this idea is premature. If we had looked at the league last year after 6 weeks, would the same analysis have led to anything close to what actually happened? I don't know.
The assumption Atlanta is automatically "in" could also be flawed even though they are playing at a high level currently.
I guess it a fun sidebar discussion, but I would leave those up to ESPN and concentrate more on in-depth stuff. This type of hypothetical playoff scenarios after 6 weeks is below your talent level Mike.
Mike,
I don't know if the Bears' problem up front is at RT and C, but rather at LT and LG. Pace has been exposed and jumped offside on that key fourth-and-one at the end of Sunday's game, and Omiyale might be the worst starting OL in the league this side of Washington. Those guys are just horrendous. And once Forte starts hanging onto the ball, he might be dangerous.
Do you really think Williams and Kreutz are the problem in Chi-town? I could swear Omiyale could be replaced by a blocking dummy and the difference would be negligible.
Last year, Buffalo, Denver, TB and NYJ were teams "sitting pretty" after 6 weeks and not one of them made the playoffs. Teams are starting to gel, surprise teams are going to get exposed now that there is a lot of film out there to break down tendencies. Things will be more clear in 6 wks, guessing playoffs now is like asking Magic 8 Ball.
Amen, Omiyale is horrible. Williams and Kreutz are not the problem in Chicago. Each week Forte gets blown up in the back field by Omiyale's man.
Arizona won 31-17 at Jacksonville. Is that not playing well? I didn't see the game, so can't say one way or the other but 31 points implies well to me.
Or is the question to play well in the NORTHeast where it's colder?
its crazy to me that people feel like the eagles are a bad team i know the lost in oakland didnt help my cause but every year the eagles have at least one game like that im just glad it happen now and not late in the year and dont worry about the mike we know they miss stew bradley big time but the trade that they actually helps them maybe not so much against the run but in the passing game where will weatherspoon is good at covering the te,and backs so this may work out for the birds cause if anybody has seen the teams in the nfc the only team the birds should fear is the saints and if spoon is good in coverage then i wont fear them anymore
Eagles lost Omar Gaither for the season now too...
I also think the Bears big problem is at LT. Green Bay has the offense to do damage if they can stabilize the O line. Lang looks like a good fit at LT and maybe Tauscher can fix the RT spot. Those two players probably hold the key for the Packers. Ahman Green could be a force in the red zone. He can finish a run if he stays healthy, but he can't be an every down back anymore.
The fundamental flaw in this whole thing is the assumption that Atlanta and Minnesota are going to be able to continue to win games when they are consistently being outperfomed by their opponents. The Falcon defense isn't stopping anybody but they're keeping opponents off the board. Other than scoring (which obviously matters a LOT), the Vikes aren't really doing anything very well other than finding ways to win games - they have the best RB in the league and can still only manage 9th??
Both of these teams could easily drop out of the picture if they don't find a way to step up their games. Those two each have more question marks than any 3-2 team on your list Mike.
To we Broncos fans, he who remains nameless in ChiTown makes too many mistakes when playoff berths are on the line, which is something we don't have to worry about anymore, thank heavens! Thus, I give the Packers one wild card berth. The Eagles do have a crummy secondary but Philadelphia always manages to get a playoff berth, at the least. They are better than Dallas, especially due to Wade Clueless' struggles down the stretch. If a playoff berth is on the line in the January 3 meeting between the Cowgirls and the Iggles, Philly gets it, no questions asked. Thanks again, Lombardi.
the cardinals did win on the road in the east this year in jacksonville
"its crazy to me that people feel like the eagles are a bad team"
I don't think the eagles are a bad team. I think it's mostly their schedule right now. With 11 games left, they have only (2) easy games against WAS.
The other 9 games are tough opponents in tough places. The 5 other road games are against CHI SD NYG DAL and ATL - all tough teams and places to play.
At home you get NYG DAL SF and DEN. Arguably DAL and SF are iffy this year, but still .500 or better teams. NYG and DEN are a combined 11-1.
Probably the toughest remaining schedule in the league.
dhines, thanks for making that point. To expand on it, it was Week 2 of this year and Arizona was ahead of Jacksonville 24 - 3 at halftime. That's a legitimate performance on the road, whatever the shortcomings of Jacksonville (Jacksonville's not great, but looks to be at least 1 cut above the Raiders, Chiefs, Bucs, Rams, etc.)
Echoing the other posters about the Bears, I don't see how the Bears can win consistently without getting something more from the running game. I attribute most of the problem to the O-line, as Forte rarely seems to have a hole to run through and spends a lot of time dodging defensive linemen (usually Omiyale's guy) in the backfield. I don't see any Bears' offensive lineman that looks particularly good in run blocking situations, but Omiyale is the one that looks like he doesn't even belong on the field. Maybe the Bears need to admit their weaknesses and increase the use of screen passes at the expense of runs to have a "pseudo" running game?
I think subdude is spot on...I think Dallas plays better despite having an idiot coach and pulls a wild card spot away from NFC North. I'm actually hoping to have three teams from the NFC North...it's been years since we've been a respected division.
I have a hard time seeing Scott M's point that there is some fundemental flaw with Atlanta and Minnesota. All teams have stregths, weaknesses, poor matchups and game plans. I'd say fundemental flaw would be defined as having a swiss cheese line playing so poorly that they have to bring back a guy with rebuilt knees before they can evaluate whether he can play at a high level. Another thing, close wins happen, I mean, GB almost lost Chicago and pulled it out in the end. Ws are Ws in the NFL...any given Sunday...which is why we all love the game.
Each week Forte gets blown up in the back field by Omiyale's man.
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Oct 22, 2009
11:15 AM
Lombardi, when you say GB was "searching for a big-time back" at the deadline, did Ted Thompson actually pick up a telephone? It boggles my mind why the Rams held onto SteveJax, notwithstanding the cap ramifications. He sure could have helped the Pack.