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DMN: Henne is a work in progress

Fox’s future in Carolina is tied to Peppers. Michael Lombardi

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QUOTE: “ ‘There is,’ said an Italian philosopher, ‘nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.’ Yet this is the measure of the task of your generation and the road is strewn with many dangers.” -- Robert F. Kennedy

Today would have been the 84th birthday of former U.S. Sen. Robert F. Kennedy. As many who read my columns know, Bobby Kennedy is my hero. I actually have more photos of him in my office than football pictures as his words his deeds have been impactful in my life. I greatly admire his willingness to change his views along with his willingness to take on sensitive issues in America in the 1960s. He believed everyone should guide their life with principles, not ambition. And he lived those words every day.

November is a special month for me. Special because many people I care greatly about celebrate their birthdays this month, and in my world, birthdays are to be celebrated whether the person is here or not. Memories never die, and neither should birthday celebrations. Happy birthday, RFK.

Chad HenneAPMiami QB Chad Henne is getting better every week.

Did you like the game Thursday night? I loved it -- a physical game featuring two stubborn teams that had to play their style of football. What impressed me the most was the play of Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne. I’ve always loved Henne -- in fact, when I wrote a column for Sports Illustrated online, I made a few suggestions to the Jets, (Yahoo Dave would’ve been proud), but of course, Eric Mangini had his mind set on Vernon Gholston, or at least he is getting blamed for it. Here’s an excerpt of what I wrote, based on the events around the top of the draft.

If I worked for the Jets -- here is what I would do on Saturday:

Now, Plan B. If the Falcons pick Ryan at three, then I stay where I am and pick Jonathan Stewart (I assume the Raiders picked McFadden). I will still work my plan to get back into the first round get Chad Henne. But now I know Baltimore will be serious competition. So I may have to move further into the first round calling the Redskins at 21 and the Steelers at 23. I have to work ever single one of my options and keep applying the pressure on all the teams to finalize a deal. My goal is to come out of this draft with a running back and quarterback -- two cornerstones of the future for my team. Nothing can stop me from achieving that goal.

The Jets did listen to an extent. They actually made a move to get into the first round but picked tight end Dustin Keller. I still think they would be better today had they picked Stewart and Henne instead of Gholston and Keller.

OK, back to Thursday night’s game….

Henne is by no means a finished product, but his arm and his movement are very impressive. In fact, his arm is exactly the kind of arm the Buffalo Bills need to handle the wind and elements in their stadium. Henne is not always accurate on the touch throws and tends to overthrow every ball, but he’s getting better each week, and the Dolphins can build their team around his skill level. Last night, they were without the wildcat element and still were able to move the ball and score 24 points.

Ricky WilliamsAPRicky Williams is aging like fine wine.

But Ricky Williams has found the fountain of youth and is running better and fumbling less than I’ve ever seen him in his career. His speed, his burst, appear better now than when he came out of college. Had Bill Parcells been the guy so many portray him to be – someone who cleans out the locker room upon arrival -- Williams would have been gone. But Parcells is calculated with his locker room cleansing program and knows who he can change and who is not worth changing. There lies the difference between what’s happening in Kansas City and Cleveland right now.

The Fins have to get more explosive on the second level of their defense. They have to be more diverse in their coverages (why didn’t the Panthers run the quarterback draw 10 times?) and they’ll be a very good team. Injuries are taking a toll on them, and losing nose tackle Jason Ferguson last night hurt them badly. Henne gives this team a legitimate future.

The Panthers play hard and play physical, but until they become a more diversified passing team, they’ll never be able to consistently win in the NFL. Look at the list below of teams that throw the ball effectively and teams that struggle with the passing game. The NFL is a passing league:

Most Pass YPG
This season

                          YPG           W-L
Colts                  315.1          9-0
Patriots              302.7          6-3
Texans               284.1          5-4
Saints                275.0          9-0
Cardinals            271.0          6-3
Cowboys            260.4          6-3
Chargers             259.8         6-3
Steelers              253.3         6-3
Eagles                250.1         5-4

Fewest Pass YPG
This season

                           YPG         W-L
Browns               116.2         1-8
Raiders               118.6         2-7
Dolphins             160.0          4-5
Bills                    160.6         3-6
Chiefs                 166.6         2-7
Jets                    169.8         4-5
Titans                 170.2         3-6
Panthers             174.7         4-5
49ers                  175.6         4-5
Buccaneers         177.6        1-8
Rams                  185.0        1-8
Lions                  190.8         1-8
Redskins             200.9        3-6

John FoxAPPanthers coach John Fox is suffering through a disappointing season.

Many people might say that John Fox’s job is in jeopardy, but I think he’s a good coach who’s managing the situation well in Carolina. They just need to make some changes to their offensive approach before they can think about turning this around. That starts with a new quarterback, but more than that, they need a broader philosophy to the passing game. They must find a complement to Steve Smith so that he’s not doubled all the time and there’s an alternative target for the quarterback.

Then what do they do with Julius Peppers? He is taking up a huge sum of cap room, which handcuffs their ability to make moves and places them in a win-now mode. Trading away this year’s first-round pick (to San Francisco for Everette Brown) was a risky move, clearly signaling that they went “all in.” But what do they do next year? Do they place the franchise tag on Peppers and pay him 110 percent of his already overblown salary? Do they let him walk and get a modest third-round compensatory pick in return? Once they went for the huge deal this year, they’re almost obligated to keep Peppers on the team, but what benefit does he have in a long-term deal? This pay as he goes works better for Peppers, but the Panthers have not gained any benefit from the huge outlay they committed this year. My sense of this is that it will be tied to the organization’s decision on whether to keep Fox or make a move in another direction. From my viewpoint, these two moves are dependent on each other.

This weekend, I’m in Dallas for the Redskins-Cowboys game on the same day we remember the death of JFK. Come back to the NFP for Sunday at the Post and have a great weekend (you too, Yahoo Dave).

Follow me on Twitter: michaelombardi

To see why passing success has improved as the decade has progressed, check out this piece from Bleacher Report.

Comments

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SA
Nov 20, 2009
11:26 AM

Mike - what are your thoughts on the 4th and 3 play call by Miami at the end of the game? I can't understand why they didn't kick the FG and give Carolina a chance to have a final drive.

SA
Nov 20, 2009
11:31 AM

Mike - what are your thoughts on the 4th and 3 play call by Miami at the end of the game? I can't understand why they didn't kick the FG and give Carolina a chance to have a final drive.

CW
Nov 20, 2009
12:00 PM

I'm not sure if Chad Henne will ever develop "touch" because he never demonstrated doing that in his four years of college. In college, he had Steve Breaston, Braylon Edwards and Mario Manningham as his go to receivers. So, I think he's going to need speedy and/or tall receivers to be successful in the NFL, because he does have a tendancy to overthrow receivers. With that said, he shouldn't have many picks that are underthrown balls.

yahoodave
Nov 20, 2009
12:19 PM

mike..if I stop mentioning yoru man love for BEllicheck...will you stop mentioning Gholston ? its bordeline obsessive (as is my hatred for bellicheck)

Lance
Nov 20, 2009
12:23 PM

I think Henne is a keeper. His style of play reminds me a lot of tony romo. They both seem to just glide in the pocket and the ball just floats of their hands. Now, Henne just needs some receivers.

papasmustache
Nov 20, 2009
12:25 PM

Sparano explained the decision after the game.

He said they'd lost so many O-Lineman in that game that the field goal unit was decimated. Guys would have been thrown out there in positions they'd never even practiced. Not to mention the field was slippery all game, and if they miss the 48 yarder then Carolina takes over on the 38.

The two choices were either go for it or punt. He showed confidence in his team and thought they could pick up 3 yards, so he went for the kill.

No Dolphins fans are unhappy about this decision.

Matt
Nov 20, 2009
12:44 PM

Coach made the right call at the end of the game to go for it. At the opening kickoff Carpenter slipped while kicking the ball,, plus with the O-line injuries, there was no need to risk something bad happening. The D was playing solid and Carolina had no timeouts.

Mr.Murder
Nov 20, 2009
12:45 PM

Henne as a winner is a huge part of that work in progress. The result is what matters most, the player might not be perfect for stats but he's making the otucome count in his team's favor.

Another item that helps him in the future, he's a cold weather QB on a team that has a history of needing help in those kind of games. That might be the edge they need to get over the hump with the size/speed design they employ.

Not a huge Henne fan here, your point of view is changing that perception.

As for Carolina, every small market team has to basically run parallel campaigns. One is to keep their star players and the other is to keep the star coach. Both are in demand at bigger markets, today's diner paints the big picture for each of their futures.

The future and the immediate moment were both huge parts of RFK's vision. He grasped the importance of immediacy and harnessed that to the dreams and ambitions Americans share in for a better tommorrow. The loss of either brother was huge, the entire world was set back in losing them the way we did.

Eric Green
Nov 20, 2009
12:53 PM

Mike,
How will franchise tag work next year without a deal?

James
Nov 20, 2009
12:58 PM

Mike - You also thought Quinton Groves was "the best pick of the draft" in 2008. Spare me with your selective memory

Andrew N.
Nov 20, 2009
01:04 PM

Hey Michael,

I thought Carolina already franchised Peppers twice in a row and he couldn't be franchised again?
Does that changed with the uncapped year? Or did I make that rule up in my head? Or heck was Peppers only franchised once?

Andrew N.
Nov 20, 2009
01:18 PM

I think you are right about Fox being a good coach. The problem is his blind faith in Jake Delhomme and failure to correctly evaluate talent at the WR position.

Jake was not a good QB when he took them to the super bowl and Fox refuses to move on and upgrade the position. I understand the philosophy about winning now, but his team was good enough he didn't have to make a drastic change at QB he could have been patient and groomed a QB. Like Rodgers in Green Bay.

Then at WR, S. Smith is getting older and they can't rely on Muhammad to keep coming back. They need to find someone who can step up next year.

Brad James
Nov 20, 2009
01:32 PM

It's not nice to say this, but Julius Peppers is a greedy tool who has hurt the Panthers short-term assuredly and perhaps for the long term as well. Muhsin Muhammad is not a good receiver anymore and Jake Delhomme must be replaced. Of course, because Peppers takes up so much of the cap and doesn't make big plays nearly often enough, the Panthers are finished. The Dolphins do have a bright future and it lies in Chad Henne. Ricky Williams is the man, that's all there is to say about that.Again, I hope for the Broncos to show the league that they are not the pretenders they were last year. The time is ours to take control of the AFC West. Thanks again, Lombardi.

Will
Nov 20, 2009
02:03 PM

I don't watch the Dolphins much and I didn't watch Henne in college but he's impressed me as a very accurate passer so far. By accurate, I mean he seems to put the ball where his guy has a better chance of catching it than the defender. Comopared to the erratic Delhomme, Henne looked laser-like last night. I think there are a lot of good things to build upon with Henne, especially since he's demonstrated the leadership to take this team over seamlessly from Pennington.

You should've given credit to their coordinator for calling games that maximize Henne's strengths and hide his deficiencies. Jeff Davidson seemed to do the opposite last night - those 3rd and longs and ensuing blitzes were predictable but Davidson had nothing to counter.

The Linc
Nov 20, 2009
02:44 PM

Ricky Williams showed tremendous speed getting to the edge last night. Its funny to say but those years off with his pot problem are the reason he's able to do this now. Most back his age are slowing down but the time off allowed him to stay fresh and keep his speed. Will be interesting to see how he'll handle the weekly pounding as the feature back sans Ronnie Brown though.

mark u.
Nov 20, 2009
05:55 PM

mike- i believe in a past post or two you referenced a book or two either on or by RFK worth reading. can you comment on this once more.

Jamie
Nov 21, 2009
08:25 AM

My opinion of Carolina and Fox as a mostly unbiased observer.(pats fan). The NFL has evolved into a passing game league. You cannot be consistently championship caliber by "running the ball and playing good defense". You'll have your good years but there will be far more lean years when you don't get the bounces. Same goes for Fisher in Tennesee. As for Peppers, he wanted out. Why keep him? How much effort do you get from a disgruntled employee. Sure he's getting paid alot but he would be anywhere he went and he'd likely be happier. Franchising him and re-signing Delhomme were hugh mistakes and I would guess that Fox's future has been tied to these two decisions. Make room for Cowher.

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