QUOTE: “I try not to think with my gut. If I'm serious about understanding the world, thinking with anything besides my brain, as tempting as that might be, is likely to get me into trouble.” -- Carl Edward Sagan, American astronomer and popular science writer (1934-1996)
The first half of the season is complete. All teams have played at least eight games, so there’s enough evidence, based on those games, to draw some firm conclusions using our brains rather than our gut instincts, as Mr. Sagan indicates above.
These things I know using my brain...
APThe best days for Ray Lewis are behind him, as the Ravens' struggles continued on Sunday.
1. Ravens linebacker and emotional leader Ray Lewis can no longer back up his words with his play on the field. He was once a great player, but he isn’t one now. His interview with Marshall Faulk of NFL Network last week was excellent, but it seemed like he was trying to convince himself that he could still play at a high level — which he can’t, based on tape. The ‘09 Ravens can’t win this year unless their offense can carry them, and that wasn’t the case Sunday. The Ravens have lost three consecutive road games.
2. The Bears stink on defense -- really stink. And the very scary part for Bears fans is that head coach Lovie Smith is running the defense. They are often misaligned, are unsound and can’t slow down a passing game on the road and now at home. I often write about a breakdown of teams in three areas -- players, coaches and schemes -- and the Bears are bad in all three. The Cardinals outrushed the Bears 182-70 (182 rushing yards is the most for a Cardinals team since 2004 and was their second game this season with 100 or more rushing yards). What does that tell you about your run defense when the Cardinals can run the ball?
3. The Packers’ offensive line is a bad, but what’s more alarming is their lack of ability to play well on defense, especially against a rookie quarterback, Josh Freeman, who at times looked very good. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers has not given the Packers the edge that Gregg Williams of the Saints has given his defense.
4. No matter who calls plays for the ‘Skins, they’re just not good enough in terms of talent to function well on offense. And now that injuries have crept in, they are going to keep regressing. They are stuck on 17 points, which is good for a blackjack player but bad for an NFL team.
APEagles head coach Andy Reid is still struggling with game management.
5. Eagles coach Andy Reid needs someone to come in and help him with replay challenges and managing the clock. Had he made better decisions in the second half in two of his three losses, the outcomes might have been different.
6. The AFC South and NFC North election returns are in, and the Colts and Vikings are going to represent both divisions in the playoffs.
7. The Colts have allowed only 108 points in eight games, second to Denver in the NFL, with the Broncos having a game tonight. The Patriots and Colts are second and third in the NFL in point differential, as New Orleans leads the NFL with 129.
8. I know Dallas is playing very well right now, but I don’t know if this will continue. I have trust issues with the Cowboys. But when their defensive line plays at a level like it did last night, I feel like they’re earning my trust.
9. Too many mistakes are made by teams managing games at the end of the half and making sure the opponent doesn’t get the ball back with enough time to score. The Colts had full control of their game but threw an interception that allowed the Texans to go into half time with three points and a renewed sense of confidence. The Dolphins mismanaged the end of the half and had to punt the ball back to the Patriots, who had one timeout and a friendly clock operator, which resulted in three more points.
10. Miami, Buffalo, Seattle, San Francisco and Carolina all have 3-5 records after eight games, but there’s a huge difference between Miami and the others. The Dolphins are the only ones I can see getting hot and having a very good second half.
APIn the final minute, Philip Rivers delivered the Giants their fourth straight defeat.
11. At the end of the game, the Giants put the burden of winning on their defensive line’s ability in the two-minute drill, and they failed. Look no further than the G-Men’s offensive and defensive lines as the main reason they’re on a four-game losing streak. They didn’t protect well, and even though they pressured Philip Rivers all day, they weren’t able to make plays at crunch time.
12. I was worried about Falcons back Michael Turner looking slow and sluggish, but the last two weeks, he’s been the Michael Turner of 2008. Turner: 38 rushes, 317 yards, three TDs in that span. He was impressive against a Redskins team that normally can play run defense.
13. Running back Chris Johnson of the Titans is remarkable. His ability to outrun everyone on the field, along with his ability to play the game with balance and power, is sensational. Sunday, the Titans played like it was 2008, forcing four turnovers and scoring 24 points off them.
14. Titans quarterback Vince Young has not been sensational in either of his two starts, but what’s been sensational is his ability to play within himself and not force the issue. He’s managing the game well and helping those around him to be effective. This has been a giant transformation for Young.
15. The 49ers are in a tough spot at quarterback. Shaun Hill can’t make the throws or run the passing game effectively, and Alex Smith can make throws, but he turns the ball over too often and costs the 49ers games. This is not a good place for any offense to be in, and the reality is that they need to get a better player for the team to be effective.
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Good column, Mike.
You are right about Vince Young. He hasn't been sensational in what he has DONE, but he HAS been sensational in what he has NOT DONE. No interceptions. No fumbles. No real "indecision". Not forcing passes. Not running for the sake of running.
He has been patient, and there are some really surprised Titans fans out there. His maturity level is gaining him some respect from former VY detractors. I'm still not a huge VY fan, but I'm a Titans fan. He's on our team. So... GO VINCE. I will truly have to say that I'm proud of him and the progression he has made. My confidence in him is growing - slowly - but growing nonetheless.
And how 'bout that Chris Johnson, eh? I am going to wear dreadlocks to the Bills game Sunday. I love that dude!!
I wouldn't characterize Alex Smith's turnovers as bad plays by him necessarily. Two of the INTs were batted balls and the other was a damn good play by a diving DB. In fact the last INT looked to me like an outright mugging of the WR as he got blasted form behind as the ball was getting there. His lost fumble was a classic play of his arm getting hit as he made his throwing motion, another good play by a DT swiping at it. He was under constant pressure and I thought he kept his poise and kept looking downfield. Unfortunately he rarely had a lot of time.
If Parys Harralson takes the correct angle on Chris Johnson's 4th down goalline run and pushes him out of bounds at the 4 the Niners probably win this game and this conversation is moot.
Mike,
Re: Point #3 I think you may have missed the root issue which is poor playcalling and coaching on the offensive side of the ball. The GB D has improved against the run but is not generating enough pass rush pressure. Though it's hard to totally fault the D when they spend so much time on the field because the typical GB offensive possession is usually either a 2-3 minute quick score drill or a sputtering three and out. That is the fault of shaky playcalling by the HC and the refusal to makie a serious commitment to the run game. Opposing D's know Rodgers will pass and that MM wants to throw the deep ball to cover up the shortfalls in the run game. The opposing D's plan accordingly.
@ Mookie
I think Mike is trying to post criticsms and observations of deficiency in the above average (performance-wise) teams.
There's not much to say critically of the Saints (or the Colts and Patriots) right now other than they are great.
Watching the Birds game last night all I could think about watching Andy burn through challenges and timeouts was "Lombardi will be over this". Painfully bad clock management.
One thing though about the challenges is that I don't understand is on the spotting ones. The last challenge it looked clearly like McNabb was down well ahead of where they spotted the ball, but they didn't change the spot. Collinsworth and Michaels said that they had changed the way they would overturn things this year, making it much harder to get a reversal.
Why is this? It seemed pretty cut and dried on the replay. If they arent going to overturn things why even have it? And if its common knowledge they aren't going to overturn spots, why is Andy challenging not one but two?
@sjgmoney -
You were runnin' your mouth alot earlier this year on this site about Favre but now nothin'......... Go Vikes - Pack sucks.
The Giants offensive line has gone from the most underrated to the most overrated line in less than a year. Neither Diehl nor McKenzie can be trusted anymore to provide pass protection, and the inability to "play Giants football" (i.e. run the ball effectively) is an indictment of all of the guys upfront. Time to stop talking about Eli and his injuries and the new wideouts and the injuries. The secret is out. The O-line stinks.
Is it fair to say Ngata is more important to the Ravens than Ray Lewis?
Can you tell the difference on tape between a too-old Ray Lewis and a new defensive coordinator who is not skilled enough to protect him? Seems to me that Ray is being asked to do more in space than in the last few years.
A 3-4 ILB should not have to run from sideline to sideline to be good. I have seen Ray more exposed in coverage than in years past.
This year is the year of the defensive coordinator. Never before have we seen the kind of difference a single guy can make on one side of the ball.
I think that the main reason the defenses for the Titans and Ravens have collapsed is the replacement of their expert defensive coordinators with very inexperienced coaches.
Say all you want about Sharper - it is Gregg Williams who is responsible for the drastic turnaround in NO.
You have Mike Zimmer in Cincinnati, and Mike Nolen in Denver.
Lets not forget Larry Coyer in Indianapolis.
Why not platoon Smith and Hill? Let Hill start and bring in Smith if/when they fall behind.
Why not platoon Smith and Hill? Let Hill start and bring in Smith if/when they fall behind.
@Nancy, first off I am not a Packers fan, but I am a "Favre hater" (your opinion) or "truthist" (my opinion. And I would say to you, it's only been 8 games, don't worry, he will do what he has always done, throw the ball up for grabs in a big game costing your team the victory. As a matter of fact he has done it already, only luck was in his favor. And yes I speaking about the game against my Niners, but not on the miracle last play of the game, I'm talking about the drive before where we threw a wounded duck up for grabs on 4th down that was the easiest INT Dre Bly will ever have followed by the easiest walk in for TD he will ever have, only Bly dropped it.
The tape of that play should be enshrined with Favre when he goes to Canton, because it is his career in a nutshell. Horrible decision, horrible pass, only he got extremely lucky allowing him to make that final winning throw. Sometimes it ends up like that for him, other times it ends up like it did against the Giants in the NFC Championship game. Do you remember that Nancy? Do you remember how the coaches kept him disciplined and under wraps that season? Until only the most critical time and then Favre did what Favre does. Bye-bye.
He should have retired for good then, his Hall of Fame career concluded perfectly, his first pass an INT, he last pass an INT. No worries though, he'll just do the same in the playoffs this year or next year or in 2018 when he finally retires.
I'm of two minds on Alex Smith. On one hand, the ultimate determination of QB success is winning. Regardless of anything else that happened, Smith could have won the last 3 Niners games and he didn't. But having watched every Niners snap in that time, Smith isn't making bad decisions. He's hitting open receivers and getting good velocity and placement on his throws. Both the tipped-ball picks struck a Niners receiver on his numbers; the first was a slightly late throw, but in neither case did his receivers have any separation. Every QB in the league struggles when his receivers can't get separation.
Alex Smith has the same problem now that he always had: the product on the field isn't there. I personally believe there are good reasons as to why (there always have been), but sooner or later you have to win. Here's hoping he pulls it together, because at least he gives the Niners a chance. Shaun Hill doesn't.
Mike - something to consider on the Packers D. While all of the focus has been on the D-line and OLB, it seems as though the Packers issues have really been focused on the ILB, Barnett, Hawk and Chillar in particular. These three, in eight games, have managed to generate a total of 3 sacks, no fumbles and no picks. I'm not sure why we even bother blitzing these three at this point. Statistically, the GB defense has played well but the lack of production from these three is making the D look a lot worse than it really is.
The Giants stayed in the game by kicking and punting away from Sproles.
San Diego waited until the final drive to throw Sproles way, looked like they put two halfbacks on the field and Sproles got a LB on the angle route to spark the Chargers rally.
Green Bay's special teams collapse gave Tampa the game momentum.
New England is the only remaining team on the Saints schedule to really challenge them going undefeated.
Big reason for the Dallas turnaround is their cornerback play. They are making some hits and tackles outside, and that is leading to chances for the entire D to play the ball better. They still need another LB spot in the place of Carpenter, the times they had to play him you could see opponents reading stuff that way with his coverage issues.
Was the McNabb challenge, ruling, and eventual spot not one of the worst replay explanations ever done? No shock there, look at the crew....
I could see it after the Pats-Ravens game. The Ravens have gotten soft. Its not just Ray Lewis. Baltimore is a team that can wilt against tough physical opponents.
@Steven Cains: Yes
@Scott Bolander: Good point, but is the flip side that teams have been seeing the decline or RL on tape (it's been obvious for the past couple years), and are now game planning to isolate him in space? Perhaps old regime was better at limiting his exposure.
@sjgmoney -
Funny how Favre Haters like you always point to him as one guy on a team as the cause of any of the losses when it takes 53 but you never want to give credit to him for the wins as then it was the team effort that produced the victory. Like intelligent players, Favre included, always say - the quarterback gets too much credit for the wins and too much blame for the losses. We'll talk again when the playoffs start - oh but your niners won't be there, too bad.
Well, there you go again:
"Browns coach Mangini will announce his starting QB Wednesday
Associated Press
BEREA, Ohio -- Browns coach Eric Mangini has returned to his secretive ways with his starting quarterback."
-nfl.com
Mike should really stop calling him "The Secret," eh?
I'm looking forward to my Broncos playing well and hopefully beating the Steelers tonight. The Cowboys may look good now, but there is no reason to believe that they have what it takes in the clutch until they prove differently. As for the Colts, they find a way to get it done every week and in the end, that's all that matters. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are polished veterans but Manning has been a magnificent influence on Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, as those guys make plays every week. Give the Bengals some respect, this team is going places and once again, you cannot count the Saints out. You need a 40-point advantage heading out for the 3rd Quarter and then perhaps you might hold on. Thanks again, Lombardi. GO BRONCOS!!!
Mangini has to be the worst coach in the NFL. Can anybody out there tell us one thing he's done to advance this franchise? Seems like they've been taking steps backward since he got there.
"I'm looking forward to my Broncos playing well and hopefully beating the Steelers tonight"
Yeah, keep deluding yourself pal. You're in for a ride in this second half. The Chargers will win the AFC East and lowly Broncos will not make the playoffs. Keep riding the Orton bandwagon, buddy boy.
"The Cowboys may look good now, but there is no reason to believe that they have what it takes in the clutch until they prove differently."
There is no reason? I give you three: Atlanta and PHI, NFC East 1st place. I guess beating Atlanta and Philly at Linc isn't enough to convince a hater. But then again, what's new considering your delusional state of mind.
*Chargers will win the AFC WEST (which sucks, BTW.. oh how I wish I could play against the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos twice a year- yeah I know we lost do DEN, but we were playing horribly back then and still came to a goal line stand stoppage).
Re: Lewis and the Ravens, it's been pretty obvious from practically the start of the season that their D had slipped. It's just that a lot of the bozo commentators don't really do their homework and study the games. In fact, many of them still haven't caught on. But they will now that Lombardi has told them.
Are you really ripping the Colts for their pre-halftime clock management? With the exception of yesterday they've been excellent going into halftime. Is there any QB you would rather have taking your team down the field before halftime than Manning?
- Field goal last week against SF to close the half
- Last points of the half against the Rams
- 93 yard drive in less than a minute to close out the half vs Tennessee
- 78 yards in 81 seconds to score a TD against Seattle with 0:03 left
- Last points of the half against Arizona- TD with less than 2 minutes to go
- Last point of the half with a FG against Miami as time expired
I like Denver over Pittsburgh tonight. Denver is a tougher team with better skill position players. Pittsburgh has an undeniable edge at safety, and an inconsistent edge at QB. Big Ben is far more turnover prone than Orton, but of course makes more big plays, and does more with broken plays.
I'd take Denver's receivers, Denver's O-line, Denvers RBs, Denvers front 7 and Denvers corners over Pittsburgh's right now. Add in the home field advantage, and I see a good competetive game with an edge to Denver.
<-- NOT a Denver fan.
Green Bay is so OVER RATED need new coach and gm , qb over rated also !!
@Nancy, please bookmark this thread as I'll be waiting for your comments when Favre does his Favre thing once again this year. Becasue at teh end of the season Favre will be doing the same thing as Alex Smith and me, watching the Super Bowl on tv.
Mike, Point#9. Correct if I am wrong but do not the game officials keep the actual time on the field?
Denver and Pitt haven't played 8 games yet...
Baltimore lost more than Rex Ryan from their D this offseason, I think the combined losses of Ryan, Leanhard and Scott plus the poor play of their corners is the difference this year.
I think they need to switch Diehl to right tackle, trust their rookie william beatty and let Mckenzie back up Deihl. That would make them ready for the play offs.
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Nov 09, 2009
10:40 AM
I don't get it Mike , The Saints are 8-0 and you have absolutely nothing to say about them at all.