Daily Jolt's fantasy preview

This will be my 10th season playing fantasy football. I won my first year and haven’t made the playoffs since. What I’m trying to say is, I know a thing or two about how to lose at fantasy football. It’s a complicated process, but I’ve managed to distill it down to these essential principles:

How not to do tiers.

Adhere to a really confusing personalized ranking system. Our own Joe Fortenbaugh advises breaking down positions into tiers of draftable players to make draft night more manageable. I also believe in the tier system, but I prefer mine to be useless and confusing. As an example, a photo of my running back evaluations accompanies this piece. Please note that unlike the traditional tier list, this one extends out horizontally, the better to include tangential information about sleepers like Leon Washington and Ray Rice. The poorly labeled subcategories and random notation add to the confusion. Lastly, unlike a traditional tier system that follows an orderly progression, the numeric groupings are abandoned after Tier 4 in favor of randomly placed groupings with names like “Tier Vult” and “Tier Carry” and little additional elaboration.

Invest heavily in players with a history of injuries. This is always important, especially in 12-team leagues. I perfected this move in 2000 when I used my first two picks on Terrell Davis and Jamaal Anderson and they rushed for a combined 1,311 yards and eight TDs. It also helps if you remember not to draft their backups. Players this year who fit this description include Brian Westbrook, Terrell Owens and LaDainian Tomlinson.

Wait on players you really like. This year, for example, I love Darren McFadden and Ryan Grant. I wouldn’t think twice about taking either of them late in the first round. However, because I’ve seen them fall to the fourth round in expert drafts and ESPN’s mock draft lobby, I will wait on them, choose somebody I don’t like (probably Steven Jackson) and watch as they both come off the board before my next pick. An important part of making sure your season is done before it even begins.

Overrate receivers with new teams. Just call it “David Boston Syndrome.” You simply must have that pricey free agent acquisition who doesn’t know the offense and has no rapport with the QB. Lock him up!

Invest a high pick in a backup QB. One of my favorites, especially when I take a starter too early, which is always. The logic is infallible: “I already took one QB too high, time to reach for another one to make sure it doesn’t come back and bite me.” You’ll end up liking the backup more, creating the first ever QB controversy on a make-believe team. Invariably, you’ll lose out on production as you yo-yo these guys in and out of the lineup on a weekly basis.

Get swept up in runs. Runs during the draft are always exciting, especially in my league, where defenses start coming off the board in the fourth round and TEs in the sixth. You must get in on this, even if you planned to take the Packers late and don’t really see the difference between Tony Gonzalez and Visanthe Shiancoe.

Fall in love with mid-round WRs. I’m at the point where I’d cut off my own thumb to get Patrick Crayton, Donnie Avery and Domenik Hixon. I’ll probably end up with two of them, because that’s what I always do. It helps me from having to pick Donald Brown, Darren Sproles, Sammy Morris or any of the other running backs who could actually help me win. If you want to lose in fantasy football, you cannot lots of options at running back.

Give everyone injury updates before they pick. Go ahead, tell everyone Chris Wells is completely healthy. It’s much more important that people know you keep up with preseason football than it is for you to get a workhorse running back in the sixth round.

DeAngelo Williams.

Don’t be proactive during the first two weeks of the season. Part of my problem with fantasy football stems from the fact I’m actually a very good fantasy baseball player (seven wins in 14 years, a fact I’m sure interests you to no end). There’s no upside in rotisserie baseball to locking down the journeyman who hits two home runs on opening day when the starting first baseman goes down with a tight hamstring. In fantasy football, the seventh-rounder who rushes for 100 yards on Week 1 is not only desirable but essential. It’s illogical and more than a little frustrating, but nobody who wins their fantasy football league this year is going to do so without hitting it big on somebody like Glen Coffee or Rashad Jennings.

Take my advice that the following players are overvalued. LT, Tony Gonzalez, DeAngelo Williams, Laveranues Coles, the Vikings’ defense, Matt Ryan, Santana Moss, Jay Cutler, Calvin Johnson, Santonio Holmes, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Rob Bironas, Derrick Ward.

Take my advice that the following players are undervalued. Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Zach Miller, Eddie Royal, Kerry Collins, the Saints’ defense, Vincent Jackson, Owen Daniels, Braylon Edwards, Kris Brown, Lee Evans.

Publish a list of players you really like a week before your draft. Dammit.

Follow me on Twitter: RayGustini

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