QUOTE: “The world belongs to the enthusiast who keeps cool.” -- William McFee
On Monday, I mentioned that there are 10 good teams that have the best chance to reach the Super Bowl; 10 that can look good one week depending on whom they play; eight bad teams; and finally, four that have no chance. Based on the number of emails and comments I received, everyone would like me to reveal the names -- so here we go.
Indulge me as I make a change in the groupings. I’m going to cluster the teams this way: the bottom eight, the middle 12 and the top tier containing the best 12 (although five have minor weaknesses to overcome).
We will start with the bottom.
And the first pick of the 2010 draft goes to...Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, St. Louis
APTodd Haley can expect to have a high first-round draft choice in the 2010 draft.
This is going to be interesting to watch all season as the race for the first pick has officially begun. No really, it has. And what will be interesting will be if the teams that made quarterback moves last year -- Tampa Bay and Kansas City -- even up with the first pick. Will they make the move to pick one of the top quarterbacks or will they trade the pick, move down and select the next best player. It’s only September, but it’s never too early to think of draft strategy.
These four teams have new head coaches installing new regimes, so there may be a sense of patience in the organizations as they rebuild. However, the most critical element will be if any of the four make progress toward becoming a quality NFL team with quality players and schemes. Interesting side note: The Browns travel to Kansas City in December to face the Chiefs in a meaningless game on the surface, but it might have huge implications in the draft order.
These teams are lost, but they’re making great time: Oakland, Detroit, Buffalo, Carolina
These teams have some areas of strength, but for the most part, they’re lacking in two of the three phases of the game. This results in them playing well at times, but in the end, they can’t win many games. Injuries will take a toll on these four teams, and when they’re missing key players in certain games, they can look bad. The Panthers play hard but are one-dimensional on offense and limited on defense. When your $17-million man doesn’t dominate, the team will suffer. Oakland might be a good team if it had a quarterback and a few wide receivers. Buffalo is hard to play but not hard to beat, and Detroit is going to play hard every week, but in the end, its overall lack of talent will cost it games. With Detroit, at least there are signs of progress.
The middle-ground teams
APWill Kurt Warner be able to stay healthy all season?
These teams might look good one week -- in fact, they might dominate -- but they might play badly the next week. It all depends on the matchup each week. However, they all have a fatal flaw in their overall team that is not correctable this season and can’t be hidden with coaching or scheme.
Arizona: Its inability to protect the passer will make it impossible to keep Kurt Warner healthy all season. The left tackle spot remains a huge question mark.
Seattle: Injuries always take their toll on the Seahawks. They lack the ability to be dominating in any one area of the game.
Houston: The Texans should be in the grouping above, but their offense can do some damage. Have you ever seen a more friendly defense in your entire life?
Miami: I really thought the Fins could have shown more considering some of their young players, but with no ability to make explosive plays down the field, they’ve struggled.
Washington: Old on the offensive line, old in the backfield and a defense that can’t carry the offense.
Jacksonville: The Jags will get better as the year goes along, but better for them would be a 6-10 season. They struggle to protect unless they’re playing Matt Bowen’s Texans, and they struggle to rush the passer.
The bubble teams: They look good/bad right now, but there are some real problems with their overall talent level that will be tough to overcome
APCan Shaun Hill be enough of a passing threat for the 49ers to stay relevant?
Atlanta: The Falcons will not be able to beat good teams on the road with their defense -- too small, can’t play the run or pass and a lack of coverage men.
San Francisco: Fun to watch and a nightmare to play, but without a real passing game, it will be difficult to be a legitimate contender.
Cincinnati: Very similar to the 49ers in that they’re not easy to play and hard to beat, but too much has to go right for the Bengals on offense to make the long run to the playoffs. And we didn’t even talk about their lack of game management.
Dallas: The Cowboys played better on defense Monday night, but consider the team they beat. Not sold on their defense overall, especially when they have to defend the pass.
Tennessee: The Titans have dug a deep hole for themselves and need to turn it around very soon. Still a very good team that has some real problems in the secondary.
Denver: Playing well right now, but considering they haven’t played a great offense, it makes me wonder about the Broncos’ ability to hold up on defense. They’re well-coached, but at some point this season, Kyle Orton will have to make a play, and I don’t see that being a good thing.
Five that can make the drive...if
All these teams have very strong strengths, but all have minor weaknesses. The final four teams will come from this group of 12.
Philadelphia: Worried about the defense being good enough to beat the best offenses in the NFL.
APThe Green Bay offensive line must be able to protect QB Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay: If the Packers get that offensive line fixed, they might be ready to roll all the way.
Chicago: The Bears have a big-play quarterback but must find some big-play wide receivers and a defense that can rush the passer. They need to hold up at corner.
San Diego: The Chargers have been beat up by injuries, but when healthy, this offense is very hard to defend. Must get their offensive line healthy.
Minnesota: The Vikings must stay healthy at quarterback and keep working the ball down the field in the passing game. Adrian Peterson is not going to carry them all year; it will have to be their entire offense.
Seven that have that look: Baltimore, Indy, New York Jets, New York Giants, New England, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
I know, Pittsburgh has lost two in a row, but that defense still looks very good to me. And once they get Troy Polamalu back, they’ll improve. The Patriots will be better in November than they are right now. And yes, I know, I only have two NFC teams in the final seven -- but six are in the final 12. This is not an order, it’s a cluster.
What do you think?
Follow me on Twitter: michaelombardi
Thanks Lombardi for mentioning every team in the league except the Saints.
I know they have the QB and coach but I don't see where New England has "that look". They can't run with power and struggle in short yardage. If it's not a trap or draw out of shotgun, they aren't running the ball. They cant get pass rush off the edge and their OLine can't protect against pressure teams. Yes Bill and Brady can still beat middle of the pack teams, but they are not beating any team with a pass rush and an above average QB
As much as I love the Jets and have been a life long fan, they belong in the "make the drive" column....they still have a rookie QB, and they still need to find a playmaker opposite Cotchery........
Disagree
Where are the Saints?
I wouldn't underestimate Philadelphia. Maybe it's the level of competition they've played, but I've watched about 5 quarters and snippets of the other 7 - and it seems to me like the offense is more efficient this year - it's almost as if they are gaining chunks of yards with less effort or something. It's hard to describe. And while the defense is a little more "bend than break" than usual, it does seem like the veterans are playing with a bit more vigor (maybe they are playing for Jim Johnson?)
Here are the issues with the final 7 teams
Balt- Can they make the "explosive plays" when they need to? They haven't played a good team yet....
Indy- Can't really run the ball.
Jets- Hooray for The Sanchise, but seriously: A rookie going to the SB?
NE: Can they get to the passer?
PIT: Until I see them run the ball, I won't believe in them.
NYG: Secondary has been banged up...can they hold up against the New Orleans of the league?
I think you're judging Dallas' play so far a bit too harshly. Consider the Giants game as an example: take away the gift-wrapped points and you're singing a different tune. Additionally, their running game is going to be a load for every NFC team to handle as the temps turn cold. You heard it here first: Dallas will win the division.
Hello Mike,
Love your posts; the analysis is always excellent. I think the reason you have only one NFC team in your top 7 is that you counted Indy twice and left New Orleans out completely. And New Orleans might deserve to be there.
ummm.... methinks you're being kind to the Redskins. Offensive line turning to dust as we speak, the one reliable back is already beaten up, the $100 million man on the D line is already hurting, and everybody's waiting for the coach to get fired. Did I mention they lost to Detroit? Or how about the fact that after three games the next three weeks against truly 0-3 teams, they face Philly (twice), Atlanta, Denver, Dallas (twice), New Orleans, Oakland (in Oakland), the Giants, and San Diego (in San Diego -- forcing them to go west twice in three weeks)? They could easily lose every single one of those games, and in a few they could get downright embarrassed.
Mike, not sure if I'm missing them, but what about the Saints? From the looks of the first few weeks they would definitely be in that last group or group that can make the drive. Can we trust their defense yet? And I'd be weary of the Jets in the last group, the defense looks great, but the offense will become predictable toward the end of the year.
Good cluster. I am guessing you really like Indy.:) Since you left N.O. out, I am guessing that you are putting them in the drive category. I think N.O should be in the final seven. I think the Jets are one to high. I think Atlanta's offense is good enough to put them up one category.
You have Indy listed twice are they twice as good as everyone else? I think it's Giants and Ravens as the class of theire resppective conferences
Saints?
Hey Mike...Where are the Saints? I'll have to assume that they are in your final seven, because you wrote Indy twice...Thanks for your work...
Maybe we could see some columns about a plan for the no chance teams?
I think you listed Indy twice, and you meant to put the Saints in one of those spots...
You have Indy listed twice in the final 7. I'm assuming it should be New Orleans?
Saints?
You have Indy twice in that final 7... especially high on the Colts? haha
I think you missed New Orleans completely. My guess is that you would insert them into the final group and take out Pittsburgh, who has all kinds of defensive problems. And if it lingers, all kinds of special team problems. Not sure what you are watching with that Pittsburgh team.
I don't get why the Vikings have to stay healthy at QB - any more then all 32 teams?
They actually have a #2 and #3 QB's that have had sucess playing in the NFL. They are in pretty good shape - depth wise at QB.
What do I think? I think you put Indy in the final 7 twice.
I think right now the NFC comes down to the Giants and Saints while the AFC comes down to the Ravens and Jets. It's just that simple going in to week 4. By week 16 we could be looking at something totally different but of the past four SuperBowl champs I can honestly say I wouldn't have picked any going in - they just peaked when it mattered.
I like that Indy is two of your final seven best teams. Is this a hidden message that the Colts are your number one overall at this point?
Michael - your insight is tremendous, but this article is just fraught with typos....we expect more from this site and it should have been better edited before being posted. Considering the criticism you give to coachs for management and attention to detail, I'm sure you understand.
You can put Buffalo in the bottom grouping. They have some good talent but the coaching and QB play is not improving and is going to continue to cost them games. Last year they benefited from an easy schedule and no Tom Brady and still managed a 7-9 record.
This year their only win came against the inept Buccaneers. Besides the Browns and Chiefs, the rest of their games are very much in question.
You are 100% right, Mike. Perfect
I love my NYJ fan brethren. Getting squirrely in the face of success.
Of course a lot can go wrong with the Jets (and each and every other one of the 'top' teams). At this point, if the playoffs were tomorrow, they'd likely be a force. Enjoy the high,and hope they don't hit a low at the wrong time.
Last year, when the Jets were 8-3 they had that look. It fell apart. It happens.
btw, if Dilfer can do it, a Rookie QB can.
The Steelers defense has wilted in the fourth quarter the last two weeks...........they are not getting any pressure on the quarterback when it matters. They struggled to beat an 0-3 team at home. I have serious concerns.
The Packers also need to cut down on the number of penalties. They had the same problem throughout last season, so whatever they've been doing to address it hasn't been working very well.
Mike,
I think you should revisit this in 3-4 weeks and see how well your picks are situated.
Of your 7 top teams, which could survive the loss of their QB and remain a bona fide? Because that is not just a Vike issue. Seems to me only the Giants because I think Carr has matured. The injuryGods will have much more to say as the season progresses and QB is the one position where depth seems lacking across the board. I think the Vikes and Eagles could lose their #1 QB and remain in the hunt. The Cowboys as well, and I agree they should be up a tier.
The NFC North should have 3 playoff teams and you have them all in the 5 that can make the drive. Does playing each other twice as the season progresses prepare them better for the playoffs or just beat them down?
If you had to pick this year's Arizona -- which team might it be? And would that team have to come from your bubble teams? If so, Dallas fits the bill.
Where is NEW ORLEANS??? Could you just skip the most scoring team on the league???... Obviously a Peyton Fan... you put INDY twice!!!
Mike - do you think AZ's left tackle Mike Gandy would make a solid or very good RIGHT TACKLE?
I disagree about the Colts and Jets. Colts cannot stop the run and protect Peyton Manning against elite pass rushers.
Jets offense is inept and defense thrives on disguising blitzes. By mid-season, teams will recognize the Jets blitz schemes and take advantage of them.
I agree with the rest
Great article. If the 49ers beat the Vikings, are they still in the same spot?
Interesting how much this is ALWAYS a QB driven league:
Your top 7: Brady, Brees, P.Manning, E.Manning, Roethlisberger, Flacco, & Sanchez
Bottom 4: All need a new franchise QB
I think you've underestimated the Iggles - although your concern is valid. But I think the Giants have weaknesses too.
In my mind that leaves New Orleans as the best of the NFC's top three - Eagles D will fare a little better next time, at least - but here's hoping the Gints knock of da Aint's in Nawlns - the Eagles will have a better chance of beating Eli, etc. in the NFC Championship game - at the Linc.
Iggles don't belong with Packers, Bears, etc.
The Silver Fox is not subject to decays of age (270 something starts). But its not like the Vikings have to fall back on T. Jackson, I fully capable of handing the ball off 25 times and making a dozen first down throws.
2008 HOU Games 6 yards 1431 TD 6
If Trent Dilfer won a Superbowl so can I.
Denver that high? Are you kidding? They got lucky and beat the Bengals on a tipped pass and then they beat up on the lowly Browns and Raiders. You've got to be kdding, right?
Jets got that Titans game handed to them. Once teams get more film on thier D and Blitzes they will not be as dominant on D, and that offense will be exposed anytime they fall behind. (No WRs, Just Keller and a so so run game)
I think its way to early in the year. To have a real sense of post season, you need to see what teams with good records do against top competition after 6-8 weeks. Then you are still making blind guesses because so much comes down to injuries.
If we're giving out quarter pole awards, Its Saints v. Baltimore in the superbowl.
Mike: Your commentary on "middle-ground teams" is that the teams might look good one week (and may even dominate), but will look poor the following week depending on the matchup. How is it possible that the Redskins are in this group? They have looked terrible for the the first three weeks of the season and couldn't muster solid performances, let alone "dominant" ones, against the Rams and the Lions - two of the worst teams in the league. I am a Bears fan who lives in the DC area and can tell you that the fan base is beside themselves - it's as though the Skins' below-average talent and in-over-his-head head coach has finally dawned on everyone here. It's a fan fire sale. Don't be surprised to see some paper bags out at FedEx Field this Sunday when the Skins host the Bucs.
You're commentary on the Skins aging offense is right on, but there are so many things wrong with the team, it will take years to fix. They had ZERO rushing yards against the Lions in the first half on Sunday. Amazingly, they'll be favored in two of their next three games (home against Tampa and KC) - this says more about the Bucs and Chiefs than it does about the Skins.
p.s. I don't care WHO they played, the Broncos are giving up 5.3 pts/game. If they pull off a win in week 4 against Dallas, they need to start getting some attention.
(not a Broncos Fan, just saying, 5.3 ppg is impressive against anyone)
As a Steeler fan, I'm glad to see you put the Steelers in the top 7. The Steelers usually start slow and were able to win last year with no running game. I wish we could do a little better in the running game but we can win without it. Plus with an easy schedule the rest of the way (games against KC, OAK, 2 CLE, DET, MIA), I'm not worried yet.
My biggest concern is the lack of pressure from the defense but losing 2 road games against possible playoff teams by 3 points isn't enough to make me freak out...yet.
I like the Jets but I don't them to the SB with a rookie QB.
There's a lot of talk about Denver's redzone offense and Orton's ability to make plays-- at least in respect to try to rationalize all the ridiculous Broncos doomsaying that took place all offseason. I thought McD addressed this very well in his Monday press conference:
"I am just saying that we do not go into each week going, ‘We are only going to throw for 140 this week. Just make sure you don't do anything negative.' We are going to try to attack a defense in every way, shape or form we can. Once the game declares itself, once you have a 17-point lead in the third quarter, you are not going to do too many things that put the game in jeopardy if you feel comfortable with where you are at. That is what happened yesterday." Before that, he pointed out the multitude of big plays against Cleveland.
It seems possible that the man with no plan (McD) has a great plan...and there is no reason to suggest that Kyle Orton will hold this team back. When you execute a good plan, it never comes down to one player. McD seems to inherently understand this, while most others still obviously don't. The Denver Broncos will win or lose as the Denver Broncos...not because of Kyle Orton.
Jets and Broncos are classic early season successes. Patriots will crush Ryan's hopes when they play again. Gang green will be lucky to go 8-8.
I have to agree with your assessments, especially the Falcons. I see Baltimore or Indianapolis playing New Orleans in the Super Bowl, as I watched the Falcons-Pats game and the road is not the ATL's strength, even though they're still a really good team, but the Patriots could have won that game by a lot more. The Broncos do need to lay the wood to a good offense, but I think they'll do fine. If Orton makes a play, I hope he'll do well for us, as for now he's done nothing but impress, so hopefully their bubble doesn't burst as you say. We should pummel the Cowboys as I think they're really weak as the Panthers still had a shot to win Monday well into the game. Thanks for your assessments and with hope GO BRONCOS!!! Right now, I think Philadelphia and Cincinnati are surprise darkhorses for me. The Bengals are capable of shocking the world.
You have to make it up to Saints fans with some extended comments about where the team belongs and why. Surely, though, they are among the teams that have "the look."
Liked the article a lot. Really hard to disagree with too much here, but I feel that there's a huge distinction between the Saints and Jets and the rest of your top tier. They've never been to the Dance. The Jets lack big play capabilities on offense and the Saints defense is atrocious. Brees won't throw for 6 touches a game forever. Lump them in with the Birds, Colts, and Vikings and create a 2nd tier. Call it the heartbreakers. These teams will appear to be great in 12-14 regular season games and then implode at some point in the playoffs due to their terrible weaknesses, which will only be exploited effectively by the top 8 or so teams in the league.
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Sep 29, 2009
11:24 AM
Good article. While I agree with most of what you said I have to disagree with Jets being part of the teams that have that look. They have look very good so far but as a long time Jets fan I am a little cautious about crowning them an elite type of team. The game against the Saints will tell a lot about them.