QUOTE: “Truth only reveals itself when one gives up all preconceived ideas.” -- Shoseki
The truth revealed itself Monday night in San Diego, and there’s no denying the Denver Broncos. Denver now has won two road games in the AFC West, beating the Raiders and the Chargers and taking a commanding lead in the division. It would be hard to imagine this Broncos team not be able to finish the job and officially win the West.
They’re for real — and last night proved it to me. I’ve always been concerned about their age and lack of real speed in the secondary, but after playing well the past two weeks against some very good passing teams, I’m a believer. Not allowing the Chargers a third-down conversion in the second half was impressive, as is giving up only three points in the second half all season. This is the fourth consecutive game their defense has held an opponent to zero third-down conversions (0/23) in the second half. The Broncos have allowed only two second-half third-down conversions this season (one each in Week 1 and Week 2). These numbers are a credit to their defensive staff for being able to make the right halftime adjustments. And as we all know, football is a game of adjustments.
How did the Broncos make this incredible turnaround? Well, for one, they hired the right coach to replace Mike Shanahan in Josh McDaniels. Despite the Jay Cutler trade, which I was not a fan of, McDaniels has done a remarkable job keeping some of the team’s very good players and not running everyone out of town just because they were drafted by Shanahan. (By the way, this is what’s going on now in Kansas City, where the Chiefs are going to rid themselves of all of Carl Peterson’s picks, whether they were good or bad.) As I’ve written many times, the key to successfully running a “Belichickian” program is not in how well you can keep a secret or shield injuries from the media; it lies in the ability to evaluate -- your own talent and the potential new talent.
No better example of this is Tony Scheffler, who was rumored to be on the trading market last offseason but remained with the team and is a great mismatch player. Scheffler is able to spread out and win most matchups with safeties or out-physical smaller corners for the ball. His value is greatly enhanced because the Broncos have Daniel Graham to be the “on the line” tight end, forcing teams to respect their run game. If Scheffler was in the game alone, most teams would just go to their nickel defense and attempt to shift the matchup to their favor — much like what happens in New York with Dustin Keller.
The Broncos now can rest during the bye week and get ready for Baltimore in two weeks. Knowing McDaniels, he won’t take a break. He’ll be make sure he tends to all the details so he can improve his football team.
Injuries...
At this point in the season, injuries are going to take their toll on teams and might shift the balance of power. For example, losing Antwan Odom will be hard for the Bengals to overcome, as it will be for the Falcons losing corner Brian Williams. The Falcons were thin at corner to start the season, so this injury makes a tough situation worse.
Kris Jenkins tearing his ACL is a heartbreaker for the Jets. He was a rock inside, and no matter who they sign or trade for, short of the Browns’ Shaun Rogers, they’ll be hard-pressed to find an answer.
Speaking of Rogers, if Browns owner Randy Lerner lets his coach Eric Mangini trade another player to the Jets, he doesn’t care about his own team. At some point, he has to rein in the control he’s given to Mangini, and maybe the first step is bringing in former Browns quarterback Bernie Kosar. Kosar was at practice last week and will report directly to the owner, not to the head coach, which might help Lerner realize that he’s given power to someone who doesn’t know how to handle the executive part of the job.
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The Broncos do play a lot of 5-7 yard pitch-and-catch. So do the Patriots- and they did in 2007 when they set the scoring record. That's the offense McDaniels runs. Certainly, teams will sit on short routes more as they come to respect Orton's ability to hit those passes. But if you start doing that, you open yourself up down the field. And the Broncos response will be to go downfield to Brandon Marshall. I'll take a 50/50 ball to Marshall in downfield single coverage on almost any play, anytime, against any DB. In fact, fear of Marshall is probably a big reason teams aren't adjusting to the short routes more than they are. Even when he's not making a lot of plays, as he didn't last night, he's still the straw that stirs the drink. The defense will likely see its quality of play decline a bit, but the O is still coming together. Watch out.
I'll be a believer in the Broncos if they keep this going into next year. There is a long line of guys who will need to be paid to keep the team in tact (Orton, Marshall, Dumervil, Kruper, Scheffler(i tthink) ). Denver could be looking at some very hefty signing bonuses next spring. Dawkins has been a savior for the D but can he keep it together another year. Dunno. We'll see. 'The Secret' went 11-5 his first year and them imploded. Keep that in mind.
To mark f. All I can say is that this same offense seems to have worked out ok for the Patriots the last couple of years. Remember that McD was the OC behind the 2007 18-1 Patriots, and guided that team to a record setting offensive year. And last year he took a QB nobody had heard of and turned him into the 60 million dollar man. How is that looking now KC?
I don't know how you can sit on anything when you don't know what's coming? Remember the Wild Horses formation he unveiled against the Pats? Where was it on Monday night? I think it's obvious that he keeps changing up what they do each and every week. It will be hard to game plan for what you don't know is coming.
Mark F.,
Think you're dead-on with the Broncos. Things will get a lot harder once the film starts piling up. They've been exceptionally lucky in not having injuries too.
They started the season agains the 30th, 31st, and 32nd ranked offenses from last year, got some confidence, and are rolling. Still, beating the Cowboys, Patriots, and Chargers (although none are really legitimate Superbowl contenders to me) showed some physical toughness and a mental approach to games which should take them pretty far.
I think we're finally at the part of the season where we'll see just how good they can be. The Ravens, Steelers, and Giants will give them a much tougher time than anyone else has defensively, and the Colts loom on the horizon. I'm not ready to pronounce them a 'deep' playoff contender until we see how they do against Peyton Manning and the Colts passing attack. Many teams defenses have been exposed over the years b a good Colts offensive staff.
Still, there is no doubt that the Broncos would have to have a total collapse not to win the AFC West. Doesn't look like the Chiefs, Raiders, or Chargers are going to win 10 games between them.
Remember the Wild Horses formation he unveiled against the Pats?
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Oct 20, 2009
05:25 PM
The Broncos do play a lot of 5-7 yard pitch-and-catch. So do the Patriots- and they did in 2007 when they set the scoring record. That's the offense McDaniels runs. Certainly, teams will sit on short routes more as they come to respect Orton's ability to hit those passes. But if you start doing that, you open yourself up down the field. And the Broncos response will be to go downfield to Brandon Marshall. I'll take a 50/50 ball to Marshall in downfield single coverage on almost any play, anytime, against any DB. In fact, fear of Marshall is probably a big reason teams aren't adjusting to the short routes more than they are. Even when he's not making a lot of plays, as he didn't last night, he's still the straw that stirs the drink. The defense will likely see its quality of play decline a bit, but the O is still coming together. Watch out.