QUOTE: “Curiosity is one of the permanent and certain characteristics of a vigorous intellect.” -- Dr. Samuel Johnson
I notice my man Rapid Ray Gustini had a tough week picking games last week. Regardless, you have to cut him some slack since the first weekend is always unpredictable, and poor Ray has obviously been following some of the wrong people on Twitter. However, I’m confident he can turn things around and make everyone proud of his picks. To assist him, I thought I’d offer a list of five things to look for this weekend in the NFL.
Before we get to the list, no team wants to start 0-2 as the chances of reaching the playoffs are slightly less than 14 percent -- clearly difficult, but not impossible. Consider this: Last year, five of the 11 teams to start 2-0 missed the playoffs: Bills, Broncos, Cowboys, Packers and Patriots. And three of the 11 teams to start 0-2 reached the playoffs: Chargers, Dolphins and Vikings. So this weekend is important for 0-1 teams, but it won’t threaten their playoff hopes if they don’t win. Applying that same logic to my man Ray, evidently he can have another bad week and still show signs of turning it around -- much like his hero, Vikings coach Brad Childress, did last year. (Many here at the Post suspect Ray’s poor showing in the first week was due, in large part, to the fact Matt “I love me some Texans” Bowen refuses to grant Ray’s request to feature the woman of “Mad Men” in his Eight In the Box series.)
1. DON’T FALL TO THE TEMPATION OF THE LIONS PLAYING AT HOME...
APThe Lions must be able to contain Adrian Peterson to have any chance for their first win since 2007.
I admit that I told NFL Network’s Rich Eisen when Brett Favre signed with the Vikings that the Lions would upset Minnesota in Week 2 for their first win since Dec. 23, 2007. I spoke before thinking, before looking at the numbers, before knowing that Childress was 5-1 against the Lions in his career. Minnesota has won 13 of the last 14 meetings against the Lions, including six of its past seven trips to the Motor City. What made me blurt out my ill-advised prediction to Eisen was the fact the Lions have played the Vikings well the last two times; in fact, in both games last season, the Lions were in position to win in the fourth quarter.
So is there no hope for the Lions? I’m sure there’s always hope, and since they’re not facing a passer like Drew Brees of the Saints, their secondary will not be as exposed as it was last week. But can they turn hope into a win? They can, because if they can contain Adrian Peterson, much like the Browns did in the first half last Sunday, they’ll force the ball into the hands of the Vikings new game manager, Favre, and he’ll need to prove he can make plays in the passing game.
2. THE ARIZONA CARDINALS ON THE EAST COAST IS NOT NORMALLY GOOD...
I know the Cards won last year in Carolina in convincing fashion, but did you know they’ve lost 11 consecutive regular-season games on the East Coast and lost all five of their regular-season East Coast games in 2008 by a combined score of 202-102? The last time the Cardinals won a regular-season game in the east was Nov. 7, 2004, at Miami when they won 24-23. I know the Cards need to win, but they don’t seem to like the eastern time zone. With Kurt Warner looking a little rusty last week and the fact they’re playing in Jacksonville, it might spell trouble for Arizona.
3. WE’LL GET THEM NEXT WEEK THEORY...
APJaMarcus Russell and the Raiders look to even their record when they visit Kansas City.
I know it’s tempting to assume that a team that played well against a top opponent the week before and lost a close one will win the next game because they’re playing a lesser opponent. Remind yourself that every week is a new matchup, and every new matchup might present different problems. For example, the Raiders looked good last week against the Chargers, and the Chiefs looked bad against the Ravens. So one might assume it’s an easy win for the Raiders this weekend in K.C. As Lee Corso might say, “Not so fast, my friends.” Matchups against division rivals are always tough to predict. Leave all assumptions alone.
4. BIG-TIME STARTER HURT, EASY WIN FOR THE OPPONENT...
This week, Donovan McNabb is iffy for the Eagles’ game against the Saints. So if he doesn’t play, it should be an easy win for the Saints, right? Not sure. I always hated playing this kind of game, especially on the road, because I felt our team might have a letdown and might not prepare with the same attention to detail as it would have had the starter been playing. Conversely, the emotion of not having the starter for the home team might force them to prepare with extra care and attention to detail. These games look easy on paper if the starter doesn’t play, but they’re anything but easy on the field.
5. DIVISION GAMES ARE ALWAYS CLOSE...
Seven of the 16 games in Week 2 are divisional games. Since realignment to the current eight-division format in 2002, the 14 teams that have advanced to the Super Bowl have a combined 68-16 (.810) record in games within their division. So if the 49ers win this weekend, they’ll have a 2-0 lead in the NFC West before playing the Rams. This might make them the team to beat.
Have a great weekend. Check back for Sunday at the Post for my breakdown of all the games and some notes along with the regular Sunday column.
Follow me on Twitter: michaelombardi
Great article and we agree. Actually - looking for the Lions to go 0 - 16.....
The Eagles defense is a key, has it retained the best aspects of the Johnson scheme? Changing schemes has made them less certain an item for scouting purposes?
How much can they gray a read for someone like Brees? Will there be enough time to reach him if the plan muddies his decisions a half step? All depends on who blocks Cole, and how many help do it.
Had to pick the Saints, ride the healthy vibe until something changes.
Went 12 of 16 last week, several teams snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Marvin Lewis, Jamarcus Russel, Jay Cutler, and Chad P each did me no favors....
Hate to say it, but "avoid the Lions and Cards" sounds like a real reach. Is there even a line on those games?
...finally Lombardi is showing a little love to the best running back in football. He's really going out on a limb there picking the Vikes to beat the Lions, but that's a risk worth taking right?
If you define "looking bad" as being ahead or tied until the 2 minute warning then, yes, the Chiefs looked bad against the Ravens. However, if one play went differently -- if that 31-yd TD pass to Clayton had been broken up, or if Flacco had been sacked on that play -- the Chiefs win that game. I don't call that looking bad.
Just Sayin'
If my grandma had wheels she'd be a bicycle . . .
HappyNat
Stop it, you just made me spit water on my keyboard... too funny. That is alot of "if's" in Just sayin's post.
Lombardi is right though, it's never easy for an AFC West team to go into KC and get a victory. Division games are almost always competitive.
I know the Chiefs are always a tough team at Arrowhead so the Raiders will have a dogfight on their hands and if the Lions can somehow keep Adrian Peterson in check, they will win because Brett Favre is no Drew Brees at this stage of his career. In any case, the Saints will win but it will be closer than expected. It's important to remember that the Eagles' defense, which surrendered onl 274 yards a game last season is still playing at a really high level. Keep up the good work, Lombardi. GO BRONCOS!!! It's nice to have another NFL weekend upon us.
The Vikings Defence will beat Detroit. Favre or AP won't be needed.
Agree to avoid the Cardinals, Jacksonville is going to have a party.
I think the Cowboy's and Colts should be avoided too if your in an Elimination Pool and thinking of either team.
I like the Bills (can't believe I just said that), Vike's, Jag's, Pack and Bronco's this weekend.
The Vikings Defence will beat Detroit. Favre or AP won't be needed.
Agree to avoid the Cardinals, Jacksonville is going to have a party.
I think the Cowboy's and Colts should be avoided too if your in an Elimination Pool and thinking of either team.
I like the Bills (can't believe I just said that), Vike's, Jag's, Pack and Bronco's this weekend.
This week is important for seeing how teams handle a loss. The way a team and organization responds to a setback will say a lot more about where they are really headed.
Also, it takes something to handle success in this league. Don't lose your edge as a favorite or a dawg bet. Which teams are ready to continue staying ahead of the challenge, which ones were satisifed with this past week(or last year's) results?
As Mike says, give it a month to see, will half the sixteen teams who lost be in it by then?
Michael - any thoughts about rating the blue chippers of each team's front office/owner(s)? Or would that be career suicide?
"People in KC are under the impression that the Chiefs played well last week. "
uh, no. No they're not. They're not dumb enough to write off the rebuild for a substandard effort against a very good team in which they still could've won, either.
What are you worried about by going out on alimb about the possible upset of the Vikings? Going out wide on hunches is the besy way to improve.Theres upsets every week almost atleast one. The risks like that are the ones that make you think the most.This is just what Ive told myself about my pics.
He was worried because the Vikings are a very complete team and the Lions are young and inexperienced. It showed on Sunday.
in my pick 'em challenge this week I did fairly well...I only got three games wrong,
I picked the Titans, Jags, and Cowboys.
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Sep 18, 2009
12:08 PM
People in KC are under the impression that the Chiefs played well last week. "They let up 500 yards, but at least the Ravens had to work for their points!"