QUOTE: “One of the things you can do in this business is fool yourself. It’s human nature. Don’t try to put a spin on it and the effort you made because anyone who looks can see the effort wasn’t there.” -- Bill Parcells, to his players after a disappointing loss
Sunday ended the regular season for 20 NFL teams and started a new season for 12 teams. For the 20 that are finished, they must honestly and clearly identify the reasons for losing and set a course this offseason to improve in those areas. There should be a six-month plan, along with a 12-month plan and a 24-month plan for repairing the team in every phase. Teams that make it out of this group and into the playoffs next year will be the teams that do the best jobs of self-analysis.
For the remaining 12, their hard work has paid off. But now they must work harder, prepare more intensely and, most important, understand who they are and what it will take to win in the playoffs. Teams that win usually control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and can win or tie in all three phases of the game. Being balanced as a team is critical, but perhaps more important to winning in the playoffs is for teams to play different styles and not be dependent on specific matchups.
Sunday’s games provided further insight about which contenders might be Super Bowl teams, and despite the fact there were not many attractive games, there was still much to learn.
The very good…
How about Chris Johnson? He gains 2,509 scrimmage yards this season – an NFL record, breaking Marshall Faulk's mark of 2,429 yards in 1999 -- and is the first player in NFL history with 2,000 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards. He was fun to watch.
The good….
The Texans fighting back from 14 points down to score the last 21 points on the New England Patriots and give themselves a chance at the playoffs. This win can supply great momentum as they enter 2010 with their first winning record in franchise history. They must make the right adjustments this offseason and understand that being close is not good enough — they need to raise their level of play. It will take a huge effort next year to win nine games because everything around them will be tougher. But the best part is that I officially win my bet with my man Matt “I love me some Texans” Bowen and will be off to Amsterdam the next time the Boss plays there. Lucky me.
The very bad…
I realize the Bengals had nothing to play for, and Chad Ochocinco getting injured in pregame warm-ups didn’t help. But 72 total yards of offense in the game and only one first down in the first half? The Jets are in the playoffs after benefiting from a great schedule at the end of the season. However, no apologies are needed: They won five of their last six games to put themselves in this position and now head to Cincinnati for the rematch with a great sense of confidence.
The bad…
The Philadelphia Eagles and their high-flying offense failed to fly high in Dallas. Their offensive line struggled to handle the Cowboys’ front, and the ‘Boys proved that their ability to run with the Saints’ wide receivers two weeks ago was no fluke. The ‘Boys are peaking at the right time as their defensive line is able to take over games. With the emergence of Anthony Spencer rushing from the outside, they now have three very tough defensive linemen to block one on one, something the Eagles failed to do. When it becomes a nickel game, as often is the case when playing the Eagles, Stephen Bowen is another tough matchup for the Birds, and it seemed as if Donovan McNabb was running for his life. To throw the ball down the field, as the Eagles love to do, requires pass protection, and yesterday it wasn’t there.
The ugly...
All the Broncos had to do was beat the Chiefs at home and they would have given themselves a chance at the playoffs. But they failed to beat the Chiefs at home, failed to beat the Raiders at home and failed to make the playoffs. Brandon Marshall will be the center of conversation about why the Broncos lost, but their inability to play run defense is the root of their problem -- going back to the Raiders game last month. Had they won that game, they’re probably in, but they again failed to defend the run. This offseason will be a long one for the Broncos, but as long as they’re honest about where they are as a team, they can be legitimate playoff contenders in 2010. They must improve their offensive line and find a way to control the line of scrimmage before they can give real consideration to being a playoff team.
The very ugly…
The New York Giants have some major issues to address, and the fact they laid a huge egg two weeks in a row clearly means they’ll have to make many changes in all three phases of their team — players, coaching and scheme. Head coach Tom Coughlin was at a loss for words last week and will be under heavy stress the next few weeks as he has to put his finger on the problem and be honest with what changes are needed. This is not just a player problem. This problem in New York runs deeper than that.
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For a look at how Wes Welker's injury affects the Patriots, check out this article from Bleacher Report.
Mike (et al.),
I would be interested in hearing your take on how an uncapped 2010 might affect the 6- 12- and 24-month timetables discussed above. If mid- and small-market teams like my beloved (yet hapless) Lions can just shut it down for a year (having no spending floor), it seems to me that this would push back those plans by some multiple factor of 12 months (and not merely 12 months).
The Lions are so bad on defense that they need to start acquiring talent now if they want to be competitive in three or four years. I like the idea of them focusing on a body type for each position and drafting/acquiring players accordingly. However, if they plan to hibernate for 12 months, I do not like their chances of executing such a plan that requires a commitment to consistency. Moreover, I would hate to see them get Suh and then have him wallow in purgatory for X number of years.
With respect to the draft, if a team like Detroit were, in fact, going to go on the cheap for a year, would it make more sense to trade down whenever possible and acquire more players rather than spending the money now associated with higher picks?
At the end of last season it appeared to me that the Packers and Saints were much better than their record showed. Who fits that category this year? I would say Miami, Denver (despite their collapse they had some impressive wins) and Tennessee (huge momentum for next year).
Also I thought Washington was nowhere near as good as their record, and I think Carolina may fit that bill. Late season wins over very disinterested teams don't impress me, and they are old and without a 1st round choice this year. Cincy is also a team that does not impress me at all and I think they will be 1 and done this year and an under .500 team next year.
Birds played terrible in Dallas. However, the one thing I will take from the game is that in the 1st half, before the Eagles went completely 1-dimensional with the pass game, the O-Line did a good job vs Dallas' front. Cowboys D seemed to tee off and get loads of pressure in the 2nd half when they knew they didn't have to defend the run. Eagles will need to stay close early on next week so they can keep balance as a way to slow down the Dallas front 7. Saturday Night cannot come soon enough
Michael, very fair comments on the Jets. Not even your favorite poster,yahoo dave, can find fault.
I'll just add that the one first down Cincy did get came via penalty.
A very good season will be great with a win on Sat (and I think it will - both teams run the ball and play stout defense, but the Jets are better on both fronts).
Cincy's only chance is to win the turnover battles.
All I can say is that I don't see the same possible playoff team in Denver that Lombardi does. I find it hard to believe that there could be a worse chain of events to end the season. Coach feuding with his best players, throwing whole units under the bus, loss at home to a team you should beat . . . . whatever. And whether you think Orton is a servicable starting QB or not (a debateable question), its tough to think that he can demonstrate the level of play necessary to take this team to a different level.
The worst part of it from a fans perspective is that even if the Broncos get off to a good start next year, we will just be waiting for the other shoe to drop. No division lead in Sept, Oct, or November is big enough. It's just depressing that I won't truly be able to feel good about my team for at least 11 months . . . until they win a game in December. Especially depressing since the Chargers are proving themselves to be a team that finishes strong, and Rivers has established himself as a truly elite player. I feel like the Broncos are entering a long dark winter that may last for years.
Spot on as usual, Mike. Denver's run defense has been awful. Started with the Monday night loss to Pittsburgh. That has killed the D the past 10 weeks and without the defense this team folded. The offense can not win games by itself.
I agree with Scot I don't see this getting a lot better next year. The defense has too many 30+ guys and we lucked out this year with no major injuries. There is ZERO chance of that happening 2 seasons in a row. And can we now agree that McDaniels is not ready for an HC position. A week ago McDaniels called out the O-line for it's spotty play but not a word about the run defense and lack of physical play from the D-line. I wonder why? Is it because the O-line is staffed with Shanahan guys and the D-line is his 'guys'. McDaniels needs to grow up.
Before the Denver - KC game, I looked up Denver's defensive rushing stats since week 10. A couple of games under 100 yards total; a couple between 100 and 150; and a couple disasters above 200 yards allowed. With McDaniels' masterful motivation job this week, I figured he had tore the locker room apart enough for me to insert Jamaal Charles into my starting lineup for our Fantasy League championship. Sir Charles led the way as I hoisted the coveted cup at the end of the day!
As a Broncos fan I'm sick of these late season collapses that occur for no reason. In Cutler's rookie year it was because Shanahan had a tiff with Plummer and decided not making the playoffs was subservient to Cutler getting experience. Last year we were 8-5 and the Chargers were 5-8, and we still managed to lose the division to them, Shanahan getting fired postseason, and then our rookie coach deciding a month in to start an argument over Matt Cassel being better than Jay Cutler, and somehow we actually seemed to get the best guy of the three in Randy Orton (?). And then this year we actually start 6-0 and finish out the string 2-8 with losses to Oakland, Washington, and Kansas City in there, and supposedly this is our rookie coach deciding it would be a perfect time to start further arguments with Shanahan dead-enders. Can everyone shutup, get along, and stay the course for awhile?
Since we last made the playoffs in the 2005 season, we're a combined 32-32, a 9-7 season, 2 8-8 seasons, and a 7-9 season. We're in the middle, not going down but not going up either.
Can we get accurate rankings of players broken down by categories and position? I would love to know which quarterbacks have the strongest arms and which TEs are best blocking in-line.
@hubcap, I should have been more clear, I meant last year for Washington. They were 8-8 and it appeared to me they won a couple of games with mirrors. A foreshadowing of this year? Probably. To me Carolina looks the same way, I'm not buying the Matt Morre hype, that team is old with no cap room and no 1st round pick. Now cap room may not be a problem in an uncapped year but with the turmoil in the front office and coaching staff I doubt they are going to make much noise in the offseason.
Now cap room may not be a problem in an uncapped year but with the turmoil in the front office and coaching staff I doubt they are going to make much noise in the offseason.
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Jan 04, 2010
11:24 AM
It sure sounds like Coughlin's act is getting very, very old in New York, and I wonder if they would have played nearly as well in their Redskin game -- just before the two-egg streak -- if it hadn't been the nighttime national game. Even Zorn -- the official Dead Man Walking of October, November, and December 009 -- got his players to play better in meaningless games.
Bill Walsh was a big proponent of trading players just before they hit their downward slope. I wonder if anyone feels the same about coaches. Sure, Coughlin won it all in 2007 and were dominant at times over the last two seasons, but the players just don't seem to be responding to him.