QUOTE: “If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange these apples then you and I will still each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas.” -- George Bernard Shaw
So much for the rhetoric about Julius Peppers not wanting to play for Carolina in 2009. So much for the unhappiness that seem to be coming from the Peppers camp. So much for his desire to be moved to outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense. So much for not coming to training camp and for all wasted time talking about this subject this offseason. The money -- $16.7 million of it from Panthers owner Jerry Richardson -- was always the key element. The number prevented any trade to another team, and the number never gave any credence to the unhappy talk. The power of $16.7 million is hard to trump.
APPeppers will make $16.7 million in '09.
I would bet that if you did a study of all the football Web sites (including this one) regarding which NFL teams from 2008 would not make the playoffs in 2009, the Panthers are on almost every list. Their activity this offseason -- to put it mildly -- was very bland. Or was it? They rearranged their coaching staff, mostly on defense as some coaches left on their own while others were encouraged to leave. The Panthers did not have a first-round pick in the draft because last year they gave up their ‘09 first rounder for starting right tackle Jeff Otah. When they placed the tag on Peppers, it limited their ability to be active in free agency; in fact, they added only one player, trading for long snapper J.J. Jansen from the Packers.
When the Panthers went into the draft, they had several needs, none more glaring than finding a defensive lineman who could apply pressure on the passer. In the Jon Fox style of defense, it is all about pressure -- pressure from four rushers or five rushers -- but Fox knows that in order to play good defense, it starts with the defensive front. With Ron Meeks coming in to be the new defensive coordinator, the Panthers hope to accomplish two things under his guidance. The first will be to cut down on mental mistakes that killed them last year, and the second will be to find a way to play well in the red zone. Their red zone defense was poor as they allowed 28 points per game the final seven games of the season. It’s tough to win playoff games when you allow that many points.
As bad as the Panthers were on defense in the red zone, they were that good on offense. They were like money when they moved the ball inside the 20, finishing as the second-best team in red zone production. For all that’s wrong with the Panthers on offense, they’re a big-play team, run or pass, and when you can make big plays on offense, you’re going to score points. The other area they’re good is in short yardage; they were the best team in the NFL on third and one, converting at an 89-percent rate, which is amazing.
APMeeks brought the Tampa 2 defense to Carolina.
So when you look at the Panthers’ offseason, despite its blandness, they did address areas that hurt their team in 2008. They hired Meeks to run his Tampa/Dungy style of defense, which allows them to feature their best assets -- the size of their corners and the speed of their linebackers. Meeks’ scheme is simple for the players to learn and play on the field quickly. When you study the Bucs/Dungy style of defense, the critical pieces are a right defensive end, an explosive three technique, a will linebacker, a middle backer who can run and a left end who can defeat single blocks. For the most part, the Panthers have all those pieces in place. They drafted Florida State defensive end Everette Brown in the second round and paid a high price for him (next year’s No. 1), but he must be able to supply a rush -- much like Robert Mathis does in Indy. He’s a key player for the Panthers to repeat as NFC South champions.
On Wednesday, I talked about the lines being an indicator for a team making the final four. The Panthers’ offensive line improved last year, which was the reason they were effective running the ball. Their offensive line is a strong point -- it allows them to make big plays in both running and passing. They’re not a pretty offense, but they’re a very effective offense. They lived and died last year on the big play. They finished first in the NFL in plays of more than 20 yards and 28th in 10-play drives. It was feast or famine for the Panthers’ offense last year.
However, the key is still their defensive line, and they must get a blue-chip season from the person who just signed his $16.7-million tender. Peppers is a talent, and although he occasionally takes plays off, he has the ability to force opposing offensive coordinators and line coaches to make sure they have the right protection to handle his talent. Peppers must have his best season in 2009 for the Panthers to reach the same level they did in 2008. He must perform exceptionally well so that teams focus their protections on him, allowing Brown or Charlie Johnson to face single blocks. In essence, he must prove to everyone that he’s worth the money. His career depends on it, and the Panthers’ season depends on it.
Can they make it back? It will be hard to duplicate what the Panthers did in 2008 -- winning all their home games and winning most of their close games, but change might be best for them right now. In this entire column, I didn’t discuss Jake Delhomme -- because the Panthers really understand what he can and can’t do, so they manage him with precision. He makes just enough big plays to be effective, and the burden of the offense doesn’t rest with his precision. It rests with his big plays.
The more I studied the Panthers yesterday, the more I saw what they’re attempting to do in 2009. But again, their success rests in the hands of the man they just gave all that money to. And that, for me, is very risky.
They certainly didn't manage Delhomme in the playoffs did they? They didn't just win a lot of close games last year, they won EVERY game that could have gone either way. That kind of luck doesn't repeat.
Mike
Great article! Finally I am able to post my comments. As always looking forward toward your next article, especially enjoy the Sunday at the Post.
We'll see if this works, Lombardi. I don't think the Panthers are a playoff team because Delhomme is consistently proving he doesn't have what it takes to be a championship caliber quarterback. That game against the Cards was Exhibit A. The Falcons and Saints are both legitimate contenders and the Buccaneers will be better than many people think so the Panthers will regress this season.
They won every close one but the Giants game in NY late in the season. Additionally they were very lucky in regards to both injuries and schedule. For all the criticism though, some of it deserved, Delhomme has had repeated success in close games, and engineered game winning scores in most of these games last year (SD, Ariz, GB off the top of my head). 10 wins this year seems reasonable. Unfortunately they may need another 12 wins to take this division again.
I have to disagree with this point:
"I didn’t discuss Jake Delhomme -- because the Panthers really understand what he can and can’t do, so they manage him with precision."
I think Delhomme's disastrous 5 interception/1 Fumble playoff game against Arizona proved this false.
Peppers now more than ever needs to have a great season. If he doesnt then it will seem as if he came back to just collect a paycheck. Very few teams would be interested in him next year if he fails to produce.
As for Delhomme. We are called the Cardiac Cats for a reason ever since he took us to the Superbowl in 2003. When he gets the lead the coaching staff is well aware of his weaknesses and they manage the game to keep him from losing it. This usually translates to 3 and outs for the rest of the game (see last year NYG, GB, NO, etc...). I dont agree with this method but the fans are used to this throughout his career and just hope he can be in a position to win and not a position to come back from like Arizona. When he throws picks early he tries to force everything to Steve Smith to get it all back in one play. We saw what happened not just in that game but the 2005 playoffs against Seattle and the first game against the Bucs last year.
With our schedule this year I would happily take 10 wins.
This will be Delhome and Pepper's last year with the Panthers.
Mike, I wanted to add a comment on the crazy interest some fans (yes you, Pats Fans) had in trading for Peppers. Let's put to one side his franchise tender, which could not possibly fit into any conceivable Patriots salary cap. Let's also ignore his contract demands, which would require the Pats to blow up the rest of the team to do anything other than rent Peppers for a year. Let's just talk about on the field. Peppers is a 4-3 DE who wants to be a 3-4 OLB. In Belichick's scheme, that means more than rushing the passer on 3rd down. It also means setting the edge on virtually every play and taking on a right tackle when the offense runs the ball in his direction. Mike, I know you know this, but do fans have any idea how good/bad Peppers would be in those non-pass-rushing roles? All I know is that when I watched the Carolina/NE Super Bowl, Peppers was consistently blocked to his back by Daniel Graham, a tight end. Sure Graham is a good blocking tight end, but what does that say about Peppers' chances of standing up to 330 lb right tackles?
@ Glenn- I couldn't agree more with you on this. I focus on what Peppers is doing on the vast majority of plays and he is quite often single blocked. Look at the teams that he got half his sacks against last year (Oak, Det, GB) all with bad O-lines. He gives himself one chance to make a move and if its stopped then he just stands up and tries to juke the lineman. No doubt he has the physical skills but I dont think he has that motor of a Freeney or Allen.
King Panther- We have mortgaged our future with these two if Peps signs a long term deal as is rumored.
I have an interesting scenario but Im not sure if it would have been possible last year. Maybe some guys with knowledge of free agency could help. Could the Panthers have made Peppers a restricted free agent at the end of the year? Meaning could we have put him on the market and just matched whatever anyone wanted to pay him? We are already paying him the leagues highest salary so what would be the harm? At least make someone pay towards their cap for him plus this would have given us an idea of his true market value. Just throwing it out there.
The Panthers won every close game that counted last year to finish 12-4.
This year they will win most of the games they need to in the Division and go about 10-6 and win the division again. The schedule for the NFC South is very hard this year with the NFC East and AFC East as this year's rivals.
Falcons will regress badly and the Saints will fight with the Panthers for the division title.
The Bucs don't have a clue of what's going on. They got rid of their Ace in the Hole...Jon Gruden.
Delhomme is the Achilles heel of the Panthers. He plays as recklessly as Brett Favre but without the talent of Favre. His talent looks to be more along the lines of such mediocre QB's as Pennington, Losman, Harrington, Griese, and Grossman. He will always find a way to lose at least 3 to 4 games a year just by himself on average. They will not win the Super bowl with him at the helm.
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Jun 25, 2009
11:26 AM
Each of these is such a great read, Mike. They're the perfect length, and they provide information that the perfect combination of complex and digestable. 89% on 3rd and 1. The necessary elements of a Tampa 2 defense. These are little things, but combined with the perspective that you have they go a very long way in making each of these commentaries valuable. Great stuff.