Diner morning news: Smith and the Bengals

QUOTE:  “I think a hero is an ordinary individual who finds strength to persevere and endure in spite of overwhelming obstacles.”  -- Christopher Reeve

ANDRE SMITH IS STILL IN THE NEWS...

One of my favorite scenes in the first Austin Powers movie (I love them all) is when he’s sitting on a couch, drinking a Tab and looking at all the things he missed while he was frozen. The subject of Liberace comes up and Austin declares: “Yeah, and I can't believe Liberace was gay.  I mean, women loved him!  I didn't see that one coming.” Well, Powers might not have been aware of Liberace’s sexual orientation, but all of America is aware that the Cincinnati Bengals struggle to sign their draft picks on time. We see this holdout coming. 

APAndre Smith

On Sunday, I wrote about Andre Smith, basing my comments on what I would do this summer if I worked for the Bengals. I also based my remarks on what I’ve been hearing around the NFL.  I would make sure that I had someone assigned to him all times, checking on his work habits, not assuming anything, not confusing hope for a plan. This has to happen, because we all know it will be impossible to believe that Smith will be in camp on time. His missing camp would result in a lost year and might damage his overall career. 

Everyone in America who followed the draft knows Smith comes to the Bengals with off-the-field baggage. To add an extended holdout at the start of his career would affect his on-field performance. He needs to be working all the time. He struggles to motivate himself; he thinks he’s working hard on his own, but in reality, he’s not really working at all. 

The Bengals’ coaching staff knows it needs to win this year in order to save their jobs. They need to show progress and they need to start strong, which is possible with the healthy return of their starting quarterback, Carson Palmer. Right now, the Bengals have Smith penciled in to be their starter at right tackle, but this wish will not come true if he misses camp, and the Bengals’ negotiation team will not bend in order to appease the coaches. The Bengals think long term when it comes to contracts, so they’re never going to bend. 

So what happens? If I’m Alvin Keels, Smith’s agent, I try to make the best deal I can -- knowing it might hurt your ability to recruit top players next season. Keels, like the Bengals, must think long term and do what’s best for Smith -- which is to get his big butt on the field. He must realize the real riches lie in the second deal, not this deal. This advice comes from a former NFL management person -- but not one who always sees the point of view of the clubs. I try to be balanced in my thought processes. History has taught me, from competing against the Bengals as well as studying how they operate, that they will not come off their position when it comes to rookie contracts. Keels will not be the first agent to break the Bengals, so he should make the best of a bad situation. 

ARE THE RAMS A PLAYOFF CONSIDERATION? 

Sunday night, while attending one of too many high school graduation parties, I had to listen to a self-anointed expert (his name is withheld to protect him) tell me that the Rams are a playoff team in 2009. Yes, those same 2-14 Rams who have picked second in the draft for the past two seasons. 
His comments did force me to think more about the Rams than I have in recent weeks. Can they win the NFC West? We all know the division is conducive to promoting a rags-to-riches story because there’s not a dominate team right now. Yes, the Cardinals went to the Super Bowl, which might imply they have a stronghold on the West. However, as we all know too well, the curse of the losing team in the Super Bowl can be devastating. 

Back to the Rams. Have they improved enough to be considered a sleeper in ‘09?

Here are five reasons they might be:

APSteven Jackson

1. They have Steven Jackson, who has a monster year, dominating the game with his power and pass-catching ability. Jackson must be to the Rams what Michael Turner was to the Falcons in ‘08. 

2. The Rams can play some/any run defense this year with the new scheme of head coach Steve Spagnuolo. Any would be a huge upgrade. This team gave up big runs last season.  They never could fit in the run game

3. Marc Bulger can stay healthy all year and actually give them a passing game. Bulger must play well; he has to give them a vertical passing game, more than a controlled passing game. Big plays must return to the Rams offense. 

4. The dome factor returns to St. Louis. If the Rams can find a way to win six home games, all they need to do is win three on the road. The Falcons turned it around last season, winning seven home games in their dome. 

5. The NFC West, where three of the teams picked in the top 10 of the draft. With three bad teams, one may emerge. As my great friend and former NFL coach Frank Novak often reminded me, if not now, when? Now might be the Rams’ time. 

Here are five reasons they won’t wake up in ’09:

1. The schedule is too tough -- playing the AFC South and the NFC North makes it tough to find road wins. 

APMarc Bulger

2. Bulger cannot stay healthy. He’s taken a huge pounding the past few years. If he misses any extended time, Kyle Boller steps in. That doesn’t make me feel confident. 

3. Their offensive line doesn’t improve. I realize Jason Smith is going to help, but can Alex Barron handle one of the tackle spots well? (I’ve been told that the Rams have not officially decided whether Smith will play right or left tackle). The Rams’ offensive line will be a work in progress during the season. 

4. They get nothing from their defensive tackles in ‘09. The Rams are not a strong, sturdy group up front. If they fail to play good defense, it will be because of the lack of production from their tackles, Adam Carriker and Clifton Ryan. Carriker must get his pad level down, and both players must stay healthy.  Depth is a concern here. 

5. Other than wide receiver Donnie Avery, who will make plays for this offense when it throws the ball? There is much uncertainty with the Rams at wideout. 

Do I think they can do? It will be difficult, but not impossible, and they’ll need much to go right for them. However, when looking at last season, the Falcons turned it around behind a very solid running game, a big-play offense and one defensive player who had an incredible season. The Rams have some of those pieces in place -- but it would be a stretch to think they can copy the Falcons. 

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