QUOTE: “True originality consists not in a new manner but in a new vision.” -- Edith Wharton
Which teams could pick Tim Tebow?
Tim Tebow generates more discussion and opinion than any player I can remember scouting in my career. The most asked question of 2010: “Which round will Tebow get drafted?” He’s a popular water-cooler discussion, and everyone seems to have an opinion based on watching him play at Florida. Tebow can’t do anything on the field this week without someone deciding that he’s either helped or hurt his draft stock. Never has a player been under a larger microscope, but all this attention never seems to rattle him. He is a media darling -- in fact, I was told Tuesday that even club scouts were asking for his autograph. Amazing, right?
In the NFL, at least as it relates to quarterbacks, it’s not hard to determine who might have an interest. And if you understand how the NFL works, forming a list of potential suitors for Tebow is not that difficult. Tebow will only appeal to certain teams in the early rounds, although if he slips (which I don’t expect), there may be more teams involved. But for the sake of this discussion, I’ll put together a profile of teams that would have an interest.
APTim Tebow is looking to impress NFL front office personnel during Senior Bowl week in Mobile.
Tebow will be most appealing to teams whose leadership base is run by an offensive coach with the power to make the final decision. He will not be appealing (or successful, in my opinion) if he’s drafted by the personnel department and forced on the coaches. Someone has to believe in him, but that someone must be the play caller, the play designer and the person directly coaching Tebow. For example, could the Jacksonville Jaguars draft Tebow? Yes, they could because Gene Smith, their personnel man, might admire his play, but he would have to convince head coach Jack Del Rio and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter that Tebow can be successful. This would require Del Rio and Koetter believing in the pick, believing it can work and not folding if the pick starts to struggle. Tebow is not a middle management pick, he’s a CEO pick. He can’t be just a personnel department pick, he must be the leader of the organization’s pick, and that leader must be an offensive coach. So that narrows the field of potential teams.
It will take a team like the Washington Redskins, who are run by Mike Shanahan, an offensive coach who has the authority to make the pick and needs a quarterback. Does this mean the ‘Skins like Tebow? There’s no way of telling right now as the process is just beginning, but they fit the profile. So does Denver, and the fact that head coach Josh McDaniels made Matt Cassel successful in his scheme makes them a team of possible interest — but once again, it’s too early to say for sure.
What about Buffalo? I’d say the Bills fit the profile based on what new head coach Chan Gailey likes in a quarterback, but it might not be appealing to the front office. As a result, they don’t fit the profile completely. When considering where Tebow might go, think offensive decision maker and a team that needs a quarterback.
This is my last Tebow column until I can watch him play in a game and study his games at Florida more closely. We all need to let the kid play.
Why are the Bears struggling to find an offensive coordinator?
APWho will be Lovie Smith's offensive coordinator in Chicago?
Coaches in the NFL are always about feeling secure, and the situation in Chicago is not secure. The perception is that head coach Lovie Smith will need a good year in order to keep his job, and that perception has become a reality. Not many coaches want to walk into a one-year deal; not many are as secure in their ability as Steve Spagnuolo was when he left a secure job in Philadelphia to take the defensive coordinator position with the Giants in what appeared to be Tom Coughlin’s last season. They went on to win the Super Bowl, and Spagnuolo became a legitimate head coaching candidate. As Albert Einstein once said, “In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.” Clearly, there’s a great opportunity in Chicago, but it will require a secure coach who’s confident in his ability.
If a coach believes in himself as new Raider offensive coordinator Hue Jackson does, he will look at the Bears position as a way to make a statement. Jackson is taking a huge career risk working with JaMarcus Russell, but Jackson is strong and confident in his own talents. He’ll be missed in Baltimore as he was the perfect buffer between quarterback Joe Flacco and coordinator Cam Cameron. If he makes Russell a player -- and that’s a big if -- then Jackson will be a head coach, either at the Raiders or some other NFL team soon. Where there’s a risk, there’s always a reward, and the Bears job has huge rewards.
Follow me on Twitter: michaelombardi
For more on Tim Tebow, the Senior Bowl and his draft stock, check out this article from Bleacher Report.
I would not mind if my team had TIm Tebow....if he was a 4th round pick or later and if he was the third sting QB learning the game and if was willing to take snaps at H-Back/TE and run the wildcat than yes, Tim Tebow. But a 1st rounder? no way
The one thing you are missing, but probably already know is how Tebow can sell tickets in JAX. I have never seen an area as indifferent to a NFL team as north Fl. The Jaguars need to sell seats and create interest. Tebow could do that. Del Rio probably won't be around much longer, so that won't come into play. I doubt the Jags will move up, but if he is there when they pick then I would be surprised if he is not selected.
@ Eric - You think Lovie would sign an extension for less money? Players who are past their prime, may sign extensions for less money (although this is very rare - usually they switch teams to sign for less money). But coaches? Has a coach ever signed an extension for less money before?
Tebow will get drafted but I'd be shocked if it's on Thursday night. Maybe on Friday in Round 2 or 3? Why wouldn't Carolina take a look at him? In a run-first scheme, his limitations would be minimized, but he'd give an opposing defense another type of running threat. Plus his scrambling ability would come in handy, since Steve Smith gets triple-teamed and the other WRs still can't get open.
Great column, Michael. I always enjoy your work. Thanks for the insights.
When I saw your headline, the first team that came to mind was the Redskins! I agree with your assessment re: Bills and Jags. I agree, too, with the above poster about Tebow putting butts in seats in Jacksonville. It will be an interesting draft this year.
Re: the OC in Chicago.... I think the Spagnuolo/Giants example was perfect. I think I would be jumping at the chance to be OC in Chicago BECAUSE of the "one-year" leash that's around Lovie's neck. Sure - if Chicago doesn't do well, a new HC could come in and hire new coordinators, but wouldn't there also be a good chance of "promoting within", too? If Lovie is out next year, wouldn't they look to the OC and DC as potential hires? Obviously they would look outside the organization, too, I know - but I just feel like the opportunity to get noticed is RIGHT THERE. Maybe I'm looking at it all wrong... but I would take the job!
Thanks for your insight, Lombardi. You are the best.
OK, help the uneducated out here. Everyone "knows" Tebow won't be an obvious 1st rounder, but I cannot find out how everyone knows this.
Why is he not great NFL material?
Tebow is going to make all you so-called smart people look like losers. What a bunch of lemmings! H-back my ass...
OK, help the uneducated out here. Everyone "knows" Tebow won't be an obvious 1st rounder, but I cannot find out how everyone knows this.
Why is he not great NFL material?
Why isn't Mike Martz in the Chicago O-Coordinator mix? (or is/was he?)
J: According to scouts, Tebow's footwork is completely inconsistent, which means he doesn't always have a solid base when he throws, thus making his passing inconsistent. He also has a long throwing motion that includes dipping the ball, which gives defensive linemen and backs more time to adjust/get their hands up. The dip is a signal he's going to pass. None of this is uncorrectable, but they expect it'll take a couple of years of work to do so, classing Tebow as a 'project' player.
Todd: From all I've been hearing, Martz is at or near the top of Chicago's short list...and getting shorter.
I think that the Bears are having difficulty finding an offensive coordinator because Jay Cutler doesn't like being told "No," even Peyton Manning submits himself to Tom Moore's tutelage and judging by the AFC Championship Game Sunday, it was well worth #18's time. As for Tim Tebow, if my Broncos wanted to take a flier on him, I guess that would be OK, particularly if he does become a tight end eventually. That way, we have leverage against Scheffler should he continue his crying. I really think Tommy Brandstater will be the Broncos' quarterback of the future and that has been the plan for the McDaniels/Xanders/Ellis regime under the watchful eye of Mr. Bowlen. For now, we'll go with Kyle Orton as far as we can. Sorry for the rambling. In closing, I feel bad for Hue Jackson. He's a nice guy who has walked into an impossible situation, as you well know Lombardi. The Hotel California will put Hue through the grinder. It's a shame to see such talent go to waste. Have a good one. I've loved watching you on NFL Total Access this week. You should be on Playbook more often as well!
@ B. James
You mean the Hotel Ca that beat your Donkeys last year?
You mean the Hotel Ca that was the LAST AFC Conference Champion from the AFC West? You mean the Hotel Ca with the most SB championships in the division?
Just making sure we are talking about the same franchise. Have the past 7 yrs been horrid for the Raiders? Of course. But what has the rest of the division done in that time, except have fans run their mouths?
For all the bashing the Raiders get from the rest of the "good" teams, you guys have nothing to show for it. Guess all you guys are really not that good! lol
Denver, ESPECIALLY should be the last place spouting off. We are more than happy with the Donkeys (aka New England Team B) being run by McClown.
Your defense was a huge positive for you last yr even though you have below avg defensive players (except for Dawkins and Dumervil)! So you release your D-Coordinator?
Classic!
@ B. James
You mean the Hotel Ca that beat your Donkeys last year?
You mean the Hotel Ca that was the LAST AFC Conference Champion from the AFC West? You mean the Hotel Ca with the most SB championships in the division?
Just making sure we are talking about the same franchise. Have the past 7 yrs been horrid for the Raiders? Of course. But what has the rest of the division done in that time, except have fans run their mouths?
For all the bashing the Raiders get from the rest of the "good" teams, you guys have nothing to show for it. Guess all you guys are really not that good! lol
Denver, ESPECIALLY should be the last place spouting off. We are more than happy with the Donkeys (aka New England Team B) being run by McClown.
Your defense was a huge positive for you last yr even though you have below avg defensive players (except for Dawkins and Dumervil)! So you release your D-Coordinator?
Classic!
Hey Brad James, you might want to re-read Mike's points about the OC position with the Bears. While plenty of pundits have been "building" a case about Cutler's so-called uncoachability, they offer no proof. Because they have none. So hat tip to Mike for pointing out the real issue - the tenouosness of Lovie's tenure.
Look, there are a lot of moving parts involved in fixing the Bears' offense - a QB who threw too many picks, an O-line that was, well, crappy for most of the year, young and experienced WRs, a RB who had a bad second year. But none of it had to do with Cutler's desire to win or be coached. Offense has been an afterthought in Chicago so long that a mediocre OC was allowed to coach for five friggin' years. People here pass out if a QB throws for 300 yards. We went to the Super Bowl with Rex Grossman - need I say more?
However, the last two games, where we knocked Minnie out of homefield advantage - sorry Vikes fans - showed the real promise on the O. Cutler threw 8 TDs and one pick. Chris Williams and the O-line came together and made Jared Allen a nonfactor. Devin Aromashadu emerged and the running game showed flashes. Bears fans liked it - a lot. And I think an OC would be intrigued.
But what we didn't like in those last two things was the wild card everyone is ignoring - the atrocious Defense, which meant we HAD to score in bunches or forget it. And a potential OC is not going to dismiss that. BTW, we don't have a DC secured yet. Wonder why. Talk about a challenge. We don't have a top flight FS and we desperately need one.
Yet and still, we get Urlancher back next year, and that's like getting a round two pick. Our special teams are terrific and always give us good field position. And, for those of you who think the Bears are cheap, take it from someone who has seen them reward mediocrity for years - they are not, and ownership is loyal to a fault. They will give you YEARS to succeed. Look at Lovie - two games under .500 the last three years would get most HCs fired. But go to a Super Bowl in this city and you own it.
That's what a smart guy who is confident would see, and will see. The analogy to Spags is right on. The problems has always been the management's ability to identify that guy.
But if you win in this city, with a fanatic fan base and unlimitd marketing opportunities, you are in.
I'm a Bronco fan , but I have to agree with Jthad as far as the Nolan " firing " goes I think it was idiotic . As for Tebow I would love it if we took him as he's a winner , a leader , a very hard worker , but unlike my fellow Bronco fan I want him as a QB .
I can see Tebow going to Seattle. New coach from the college ranks with full control. Veteran & backup QBs in place so he would not have to play the first year and can learn behind a smart QB in Hasselbeck. This would also let Pete C put his mark on the team. And the team will be picking in the low second round.
What about the Vikings taking Tebow? They've shown that they are willing to take risks on dynamic offensive players (Peterson with the collarbone, Harvin with the pot) and they need a long-term solution at QB. Childress thinks of himself as an offensive guru. I could see them doing it.
I can't see the Redskins going for Tebow, unless he drops to maybe the fourth round. We need two OTs, a G, two RBs, a FS, couple of LBs, etc. Plus, we already have a QB with a bigger arm than Tebow who also has a slow delivery, who dips the ball to give DE's a chance to swipe it, who can't anticipate receivers coming out of their breaks, who has poor footwork and zero pocket presence but who, like Tebow, can take a pounding.
LOL Meateater. Well said about Campbell. Two years ago Peter King said this guy was on the verge of breaking out. Of what?
I will agree with others about Tebow's issues. he elongated motion, his issues with being under center and his odd footwork. He is a rock solid leader with scrambling ability and other intangibles.
There are simply too many issues for him to be taken in the first round though, as the teams who may draft him are too high up. With regards to him going to Minn., I would think that if Favre retires, they would draft McCoy in te first round, not Tebow.
Its going to be fun and interesting to see him at the Senior bowl, and at the combine as well.
Don't even try to compare Tebow to Campbell as one has been a consistent winner while the other never had anything but a big arm . If you can't figure out which is which you should give up !!
I do think that Campbell won part of a national championship at Auburn. He wasn't always a loser.
Mike, you shouldn't write an article on a player you have admittedly not watched play. Until you see the awful mechanics, slow release, major accuracy issues and poor pocket awareness and decision making, then maybe you should have never written about him in the first place. Just a thought.
Denver = N.E. Team B is so true. I wouldn't be surprised if Josh McDufus was operating behind the scenes to get Robert Kraft to take over from Pat Bowlen. And Pat can find out about it from back channels, like Jay found out that Josh McOpie was working to bring in the great Matt Cassell. A real man would say to his QB, "you know, I'm thinking of bringing in a guy to compete with you, got a problem with that?" I guess its better to pull off a coup and tell the guy who's been there about it later. That would build a lot of trust in the locker room. The future is bright in NE West.
Mike,
Are you thinking that the 'Skins have given up on Colt Brennan? If I'm Shanny, I'd want to be spending some serious quality time with that kid before using a high pick on a long term project like Tebow.
RaiderJihad,
It's great that you can remain loyal to your team after so many years of futility. That's dedication that few outside of, say, Detroit, can rival. I think the rest of us look at those years of the Silver and Black's greatness with sadness, because we recognize that the organization is in dire straits and a guy's gonna have to die before things get better.
As a fan of the game generally, it's a shame to see one of the greatest minds in the history of football having slipped so far, and doing so much damage to a once-proud organization. The fact that they'll have to pry control of the team from his cold, dead fingers is truly depressing.
Well said, Jeremy. A mind that once revolutionized the game has has suffered from dementia for a long time. Time for him to retire in God's Waiting Room, aka Florida.
That said, there is some talent in the Bay Area. The Chargers can't stop stumbling in the playoffs, the Donkeys are clearing out every Pro Bowler. The Chiefs, that's the team that could turn it around. And da Raiduhs could well be a factor. Anybody but the stumbling bumbling Chargers and NE B Team would be a welcome change in a once glorious division.
Anybody else sick of Phillip Rivers red ass, trash talking this-is-my-team b.s.? He's a great QB, but his act is getting tired.
Tebow seems out of place, and isn't a routine go or no go call for scouts as well as the fans (who seem to spend way too much time pondering such issues). For one, he hails from Florida which isn't a school like Notre Dame, whose players are routinely over-hyped by the kowtowing media to to the point of insanity. Two, he is the product of a very talented team, making it hard to determine if he really is THAT good, or just lucky. Third, he's a nut, a right winger and someone with political views very well received in the south, where football is a religion in its own right. That makes him even more talked about. As if football needs someone with his unique views. Scouts have to make a clear headed call on his talent. Just from that it's clear to see he won't be a big time QB. I'd rate him a blocking back or TE if he can catch. As for his personal views, he can just ask Kurt Warner how popular that was with his teammates, who eventually had to take him aside in St. Louis and ask him to tone it down some, that not everyone was into the God stuff. In public, and as a leader, you MUST consider all POVs, not just your own. And not just accept those who are say, Muslim or even harder, Catholic as souls that are lost and need saving. Better to keep that at home. If I was a GM I'd pass on him just out of fear of him being a locker room distraction.
Addressing the Tebow to Jacksonville crowd - this is an economic issue, not an issue the fans have with the team. Job creation, education and a better housing market will secure the Jaquars in Jacksonville for the next decade, not a kid out of college.
Here is a comment from another sites scout at the sr bowl:
QUARTERBACKS
–I continue to be impressed by Tim Tebow (Florida). I can understand the issue with his long release, but I watched him closely and something came to mind. I think, on purpose, he is slowing everything down to ensure he gets his footwork right. This is the first time he has dropped back while making reads, and I think he is focused on that more so than his release. With time, his release will be worked on and quickened enough to pass in the NFL. He connected on several deep balls yet again and the zip he can put on the ball is the best I’ve seen this week. His progression is there and that’s all you can ask for right now.
Good article.
Thanks
Hell ! ....You don't need a FUTURE HALL OF FAME QUATERBACK to win the Super Bowl!
Off the top of my head Brad Johnson,Trent Dilfer,Jim Plunckett and Doug Williams come to mind.
If Tebow's planned Super Bowl commercial gets played, any team thinking of taking him will hopefully think twice about the sort of backlash that will result, and if a guy who doesn't have the skills to be a franchise QB is worth that type of bad press.
Casey.....................The NFL has more serious conduct violations to worry about than a commercial someone made WHO ISN'T EVEN A PLAYER AND WE HAVE NO IDEA OF THE CONTENT. IF THEY DON'T THINK TWICE about the players who take drugs or steroids,beatup there girlfriends,carry concealed weapons and are accessories to crimes THIS IS HARDLY ANYTHING FOR YOU TO WORRY ABOUT. Unless of course YOUR TOLERANCE IS FOR THE THUGS ELEMENT OF FOOTBALL AND AGAINST ANYONE WITH OPPOSING VIEWS THAN YOUR OWN?
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Jan 27, 2010
10:53 AM
If the Bears were smart, they would have tried to extend Lovie's deal by a year without adding a ton of new money, allowing for a less per year salary AND avoiding the lame duck coach status. If they were smart.