NFP»Columns»Notes from Lombardi»Diner Morning News
RSS

Diner morning news: the Packers move on

Rodgers’ growing pains are over, and the offense will be better. Michael Lombardi

Bookmark and Share Print This Send This July 07, 2009, 09:48 AM EST
80 Comments

QUOTE: “Men do not care how nobly they live, but only how long, although it is within the reach of every man to live nobly, but within no man's power to live long.” -- Seneca the Younger (4 B.C.-65 A.D.)

The week after July 4 is normally a very quiet time in the NFL. Most team executives and coaches take off this week, so news is light. But lo and behold, now we have another Brett Favre bulletin: Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that Mr. Favre may have leased a condominium in Edina, Minn. So the worst-kept secret keeps getting out. Has Brad Childress come back from fishing in Alaska yet?

Don’t worry, this isn’t another Favre column. This is going to be a column on the Packers’ offense, explaining why I feel they’ll be explosive this season. However, it does start with Favre.

Brett FavreAPWhat's an article on the Packers without at least one Favre reference?

All the talk about Favre heading to Minnesota keeps making me ask the fundamental question: How much better will the Vikings be with Favre? I wrote on Sunday (and have been thinking this since) that we know the Vikings are a “good” team without him, but are they are “great” team with him? I cannot seem to bring clarity to that question in my mind, but it did make me wonder about the Packers’ offense as they lived life without Favre last year. The Packers became a very good offense last season without him, but now they have a chance to be great.

Bill Walsh always used to say, “The first year, we teach the player the system. The second year, we develop his skills within the system.” That line resonates with me every time I think about Aaron Rodgers, the Packers quarterback. Rodgers played well, but as Matt Bowen, my Houston Texans spokesman and colleague here at the Post, pointed out, he struggled to close out games in the fourth period last season. It was a growing year for him, the pains of not being able to play for so long, but this year will be the money year – and the game will slow down for him. Once it slows down, he’ll improve his fourth-quarter performances.

I was not convinced that Rodgers could become a great pro player when he left Cal. I know that everyone talks about the great Jeff Tedford’s offense at California, but in reality, it’s a college offense. This is not meant to degrade Tedford but rather to explain how he uses the rules of the college game to his full advantage -- which for me is very smart. The offense uses the hash marks and the ability to go unbalanced to give the quarterback easier reads with the ball. The unbalanced rules of college football greatly enhance the ability to protect the passer. The NFL rules, as they relate to an unbalance line, are different, so Tedford’s offense does not easily translate to the NFL. When Rodgers was coming out, I was concerned about his ability to fit into the offense we were running at the Hotel. He had the kind of game that needed to go to the right scheme. Don’t forget, Mike McCarthy the head coach of the Packers, was in San Francisco, where they selected Alex Smith over Rodgers. Rodgers proved last year that he can run the Packers’ system very well and should be able to handle an expansive package in ‘09.

As unimpressed as I am with the Vikings’ offensive creativity (wait until Favre starts changing things), I’m very impressed with what McCarthy has done with his offense. I have learned to have great respect for his ability to formulate a game plan and create imaginative designs in his offense. He has grown as a coach, utilizing his talented skills players. Last season, with injuries abounding, the Packers’ offense was very proficient, finishing fifth in points scored. This year, if they’re able to stay healthy, they’ll be an explosive offense that will be hard to match up against each week.

Aaron RodgersAPExpect a big year out of Aaron Rodgers.

One of my new Twitter friends is Ryan Grant of the Packers. For me, Grant is the critical piece separating the Packer offense from very good and great. He had the classic “get paid” year last season, which means he was more worried about getting paid in the offseason than working hard to prepare for the season. He did have over 1,200 yards, but he averaged slightly below 4.0 per carry as opposed to ‘07, when he averaged above 5.0. I realize the injuries on the offensive line had something to do with his lack of big-play production, as it affected all the Packers. But this year, I expect the ‘07 Grant to return -- the player who was explosive in the spread set, made big plays and made people miss tackles.

Everyone in Packerland is concerned about the changes in the defense as they relate to their current personnel with new coordinator Dom Capers. Certainly, there’s a reason for concern (change causes concern), but the Packers’ offense is going to be the best friend to the Packers’ new defense. If the offense is as explosive as I expect, they will build the lead, which then will allow Capers to become more exotic with his scheme. Capers might be the best complement to the Packers’ offense, creating pressure from various positions on the field, which in turn creates turnovers. My concerns about the Packers on defense get smaller every time I think about how explosive they can be in year two of the Aaron Rodgers era.

Ravens center Matt Birk, who filled in well for SI.com’s Peter King yesterday in his Monday Morning Quarterback column, had this to say about a Favre signing: “I think Favre will play for the Vikings this year. This will start a civil war between Minnesota and Wisconsin. A truce will be reached in this epic border battle after it is discovered at a tailgate party that Johnsonville Brats (Wisconsin) and Grain Belt Beer (Minnesota) are perfect complements for each other.”

All that might happen off the field, but on the field, the Packers seem to have the better offense in terms of design, personnel and coaching.

The Packers have moved on while the Vikings have taken a step back in time. Does this make them go from good to great? I really doubt it.

Comments

Add a Comment
Theo
Jul 07, 2009
10:10 AM

National Favre Post

eric
Jul 07, 2009
10:22 AM

Go to nfl.com and look at Rodgers 4th quarter stats(http://www.nfl.com/players/aaronrodgers/situationalstats?id=ROD339293). Then tell me he's bad at closing out games; if anything he was average at worst at closing out games. The Packers defense didn't close out games last year. Just to show you I'm unbiased, I am a huge Chicago Bears fan that shed a few tears when Favre retired because I thought a young Rodgers that could move around in the pocket and wouldn't gamble as much would be better than a immobile Favre who gambled more than he used to.

Aaron/Cheesehead TV
Jul 07, 2009
10:24 AM

Thanks for taking a look at the Packers Mike.

I couldn't agree more with your assessment of Rodgers. I think he'll learn to trust the pocket a bit more this year and do a better job ignoring his impulse to pull the ball down and run when he has a 5 yard check down available to him. Add to that reports that say he will be given much more leeway at the line of scrimmage and I think you'll see a natural progression in Aaron's game.

One thing missing from your analysis is the offensive line - namely, the tackles. I expect the Packers to be much stronger up the middle with Colledge, Spitz and Sitton, but Clifton is on his last legs and who knows who will man the RT spot (I suspect TJ Lang will win the job once the pads come on, though Barbre is getting all the press now) The play of the tackles will greatly influence how much McCarthy is able to get those skill players out away from the formation. The last thing he wants to do is to have to revert back to motioning tight ends into the backfield on obvious passing downs as he used to do with a suspect line a few years ago.

All in all, the Packers offense should improve, and as you say, help with what will no doubt be growing pains on the defensive side of the ball.

Dan Ireland
Jul 07, 2009
10:28 AM

Good article, and I agree about Favre going to Minnesota. He will help them win some games for sure, but his bonehead decision making and aging arm will cost them some games as well. The only thing he will accomplish by signing with the Vikings is to forever tarnish his legacy in Green Bay.

Sean T
Jul 07, 2009
10:31 AM

Good to great. That is a great way to put it Mike. No chance in my mind that The Vikings become great, with that terrible uncreative offense they run and Favre's impatience. Packers made the right decision 2 years ago, and the Vikings are still hanging on to Tavaris Jackson for God's sake.

Dan at Marquette University
Jul 07, 2009
11:08 AM

Aaron, no love for Breno at that RT position? He was the favorite up until Barbre started getting positive press in mini camp. I guess you could argue his injury has held him back.


Mr. Lombardi, this article has genuinely pumped me up. Thank you.

MkePackFan
Jul 07, 2009
11:10 AM

I agree with your assessment Eric. To say Aaron Rodgers was an inefficient QB in the 4th, or was inefficient in winning games in the 4th qtr, didn't watch the same games I did.

I remember Rodgers giving the Packers a late 4th quarter lead against the Texans, only for the Texans to drive down and kick a last second FG.

I remember Rodgers getting the Pack in position to tie (which they did) the Titans for OT and not getting the ball in OT.

I remember 2 game winning FGs missed by Crosby after Rodgers pushed them down into position to win the game.

Last, in alot of the games from last year, Rodgers started the 2nd half with a deficit and in most cases rallied the team to a 4th quarter lead or tie which the D promptly blew.

MkePackFan
Jul 07, 2009
11:14 AM

But, aside from that issue, I agree wholeheartedly with you Michael.

I think the best defense will be an explosive Packer offense that keeps the opponents on the ropes. Hopefully Grant will be back to the 5.0 ypc back that he was in the 2007 season when he joined the Packers. The training camp holdout and the injury he carried into the season certainly hampered his production (and despite this, gained a decent 1200 yards) but now he has no excuses not to come into the season in tip-top shape.

Randal67
Jul 07, 2009
11:34 AM

2008 Vikings 10-6 Packers 6-10
2009 Vikings 12-4 Packers 4-12

Who is the Packers back up QB? How many changes do they have on their OL? 3-4 is not easy to learn.

Aaron/Cheesehead TV
Jul 07, 2009
11:34 AM

Dan - It's tough to get any kind of read on Breno since we haven't seen him do anything other than stand on a sideline since he got drafted, save for a handful of snaps. The Packers have talked him up, that's for sure and they did indeed have him penciled in as the starter before he had surgery. I look forward to seeing what they have there.

I thought Barbre got a raw deal last year in his 'battle' with Colledge at the LG spot. I thought Barbre looked great in the limited action he got in the first pre-season game, and then... nothing. They pretty much handed the job back to Colledge. (Which is fine - I think he had a solid season and continues to improve) The good thing, in my mind, is that whoever takes over at that spot will be an upgrade in the run game. As much as I love Tausch, both he and Clifton are and were big, big liabilities when it comes to the zone blocking scheme.

Basically, I think the RT battle will be the highlight of camp.

Aaron/Cheesehead TV
Jul 07, 2009
11:35 AM

Dan - It's tough to get any kind of read on Breno since we haven't seen him do anything other than stand on a sideline since he got drafted, save for a handful of snaps. The Packers have talked him up, that's for sure and they did indeed have him penciled in as the starter before he had surgery. I look forward to seeing what they have there.

I thought Barbre got a raw deal last year in his 'battle' with Colledge at the LG spot. I thought Barbre looked great in the limited action he got in the first pre-season game, and then... nothing. They pretty much handed the job back to Colledge. (Which is fine - I think he had a solid season and continues to improve) The good thing, in my mind, is that whoever takes over at that spot will be an upgrade in the run game. As much as I love Tausch, both he and Clifton are and were big, big liabilities when it comes to the zone blocking scheme.

Basically, I think the RT battle will be the highlight of camp.

mark
Jul 07, 2009
11:44 AM

I think the biggest question for the Pack offense is the potential success/failure of the offensive line. Seems to me there are a lot of players on that line who have way more "proving" to do than Rodgers or Grant. Furthermore, the holes for Grant and the health of Rodgers depends on their success, so that's even more reason to wonder.

Next 1 - 12 of 79 Prev COMMENTS

Add a Comment

* Required - Keep track of your comments Login or Register with NFP
(will not be published)