QUOTE: “Men do not care how nobly they live, but only how long, although it is within the reach of every man to live nobly, but within no man's power to live long.” -- Seneca the Younger (4 B.C.-65 A.D.)
The week after July 4 is normally a very quiet time in the NFL. Most team executives and coaches take off this week, so news is light. But lo and behold, now we have another Brett Favre bulletin: Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that Mr. Favre may have leased a condominium in Edina, Minn. So the worst-kept secret keeps getting out. Has Brad Childress come back from fishing in Alaska yet?
Don’t worry, this isn’t another Favre column. This is going to be a column on the Packers’ offense, explaining why I feel they’ll be explosive this season. However, it does start with Favre.
APWhat's an article on the Packers without at least one Favre reference?
All the talk about Favre heading to Minnesota keeps making me ask the fundamental question: How much better will the Vikings be with Favre? I wrote on Sunday (and have been thinking this since) that we know the Vikings are a “good” team without him, but are they are “great” team with him? I cannot seem to bring clarity to that question in my mind, but it did make me wonder about the Packers’ offense as they lived life without Favre last year. The Packers became a very good offense last season without him, but now they have a chance to be great.
Bill Walsh always used to say, “The first year, we teach the player the system. The second year, we develop his skills within the system.” That line resonates with me every time I think about Aaron Rodgers, the Packers quarterback. Rodgers played well, but as Matt Bowen, my Houston Texans spokesman and colleague here at the Post, pointed out, he struggled to close out games in the fourth period last season. It was a growing year for him, the pains of not being able to play for so long, but this year will be the money year – and the game will slow down for him. Once it slows down, he’ll improve his fourth-quarter performances.
I was not convinced that Rodgers could become a great pro player when he left Cal. I know that everyone talks about the great Jeff Tedford’s offense at California, but in reality, it’s a college offense. This is not meant to degrade Tedford but rather to explain how he uses the rules of the college game to his full advantage -- which for me is very smart. The offense uses the hash marks and the ability to go unbalanced to give the quarterback easier reads with the ball. The unbalanced rules of college football greatly enhance the ability to protect the passer. The NFL rules, as they relate to an unbalance line, are different, so Tedford’s offense does not easily translate to the NFL. When Rodgers was coming out, I was concerned about his ability to fit into the offense we were running at the Hotel. He had the kind of game that needed to go to the right scheme. Don’t forget, Mike McCarthy the head coach of the Packers, was in San Francisco, where they selected Alex Smith over Rodgers. Rodgers proved last year that he can run the Packers’ system very well and should be able to handle an expansive package in ‘09.
As unimpressed as I am with the Vikings’ offensive creativity (wait until Favre starts changing things), I’m very impressed with what McCarthy has done with his offense. I have learned to have great respect for his ability to formulate a game plan and create imaginative designs in his offense. He has grown as a coach, utilizing his talented skills players. Last season, with injuries abounding, the Packers’ offense was very proficient, finishing fifth in points scored. This year, if they’re able to stay healthy, they’ll be an explosive offense that will be hard to match up against each week.
APExpect a big year out of Aaron Rodgers.
One of my new Twitter friends is Ryan Grant of the Packers. For me, Grant is the critical piece separating the Packer offense from very good and great. He had the classic “get paid” year last season, which means he was more worried about getting paid in the offseason than working hard to prepare for the season. He did have over 1,200 yards, but he averaged slightly below 4.0 per carry as opposed to ‘07, when he averaged above 5.0. I realize the injuries on the offensive line had something to do with his lack of big-play production, as it affected all the Packers. But this year, I expect the ‘07 Grant to return -- the player who was explosive in the spread set, made big plays and made people miss tackles.
Everyone in Packerland is concerned about the changes in the defense as they relate to their current personnel with new coordinator Dom Capers. Certainly, there’s a reason for concern (change causes concern), but the Packers’ offense is going to be the best friend to the Packers’ new defense. If the offense is as explosive as I expect, they will build the lead, which then will allow Capers to become more exotic with his scheme. Capers might be the best complement to the Packers’ offense, creating pressure from various positions on the field, which in turn creates turnovers. My concerns about the Packers on defense get smaller every time I think about how explosive they can be in year two of the Aaron Rodgers era.
Ravens center Matt Birk, who filled in well for SI.com’s Peter King yesterday in his Monday Morning Quarterback column, had this to say about a Favre signing: “I think Favre will play for the Vikings this year. This will start a civil war between Minnesota and Wisconsin. A truce will be reached in this epic border battle after it is discovered at a tailgate party that Johnsonville Brats (Wisconsin) and Grain Belt Beer (Minnesota) are perfect complements for each other.”
All that might happen off the field, but on the field, the Packers seem to have the better offense in terms of design, personnel and coaching.
The Packers have moved on while the Vikings have taken a step back in time. Does this make them go from good to great? I really doubt it.
Go to nfl.com and look at Rodgers 4th quarter stats(http://www.nfl.com/players/aaronrodgers/situationalstats?id=ROD339293). Then tell me he's bad at closing out games; if anything he was average at worst at closing out games. The Packers defense didn't close out games last year. Just to show you I'm unbiased, I am a huge Chicago Bears fan that shed a few tears when Favre retired because I thought a young Rodgers that could move around in the pocket and wouldn't gamble as much would be better than a immobile Favre who gambled more than he used to.
Thanks for taking a look at the Packers Mike.
I couldn't agree more with your assessment of Rodgers. I think he'll learn to trust the pocket a bit more this year and do a better job ignoring his impulse to pull the ball down and run when he has a 5 yard check down available to him. Add to that reports that say he will be given much more leeway at the line of scrimmage and I think you'll see a natural progression in Aaron's game.
One thing missing from your analysis is the offensive line - namely, the tackles. I expect the Packers to be much stronger up the middle with Colledge, Spitz and Sitton, but Clifton is on his last legs and who knows who will man the RT spot (I suspect TJ Lang will win the job once the pads come on, though Barbre is getting all the press now) The play of the tackles will greatly influence how much McCarthy is able to get those skill players out away from the formation. The last thing he wants to do is to have to revert back to motioning tight ends into the backfield on obvious passing downs as he used to do with a suspect line a few years ago.
All in all, the Packers offense should improve, and as you say, help with what will no doubt be growing pains on the defensive side of the ball.
Good article, and I agree about Favre going to Minnesota. He will help them win some games for sure, but his bonehead decision making and aging arm will cost them some games as well. The only thing he will accomplish by signing with the Vikings is to forever tarnish his legacy in Green Bay.
Good to great. That is a great way to put it Mike. No chance in my mind that The Vikings become great, with that terrible uncreative offense they run and Favre's impatience. Packers made the right decision 2 years ago, and the Vikings are still hanging on to Tavaris Jackson for God's sake.
Aaron, no love for Breno at that RT position? He was the favorite up until Barbre started getting positive press in mini camp. I guess you could argue his injury has held him back.
Mr. Lombardi, this article has genuinely pumped me up. Thank you.
I agree with your assessment Eric. To say Aaron Rodgers was an inefficient QB in the 4th, or was inefficient in winning games in the 4th qtr, didn't watch the same games I did.
I remember Rodgers giving the Packers a late 4th quarter lead against the Texans, only for the Texans to drive down and kick a last second FG.
I remember Rodgers getting the Pack in position to tie (which they did) the Titans for OT and not getting the ball in OT.
I remember 2 game winning FGs missed by Crosby after Rodgers pushed them down into position to win the game.
Last, in alot of the games from last year, Rodgers started the 2nd half with a deficit and in most cases rallied the team to a 4th quarter lead or tie which the D promptly blew.
But, aside from that issue, I agree wholeheartedly with you Michael.
I think the best defense will be an explosive Packer offense that keeps the opponents on the ropes. Hopefully Grant will be back to the 5.0 ypc back that he was in the 2007 season when he joined the Packers. The training camp holdout and the injury he carried into the season certainly hampered his production (and despite this, gained a decent 1200 yards) but now he has no excuses not to come into the season in tip-top shape.
2008 Vikings 10-6 Packers 6-10
2009 Vikings 12-4 Packers 4-12
Who is the Packers back up QB? How many changes do they have on their OL? 3-4 is not easy to learn.
Dan - It's tough to get any kind of read on Breno since we haven't seen him do anything other than stand on a sideline since he got drafted, save for a handful of snaps. The Packers have talked him up, that's for sure and they did indeed have him penciled in as the starter before he had surgery. I look forward to seeing what they have there.
I thought Barbre got a raw deal last year in his 'battle' with Colledge at the LG spot. I thought Barbre looked great in the limited action he got in the first pre-season game, and then... nothing. They pretty much handed the job back to Colledge. (Which is fine - I think he had a solid season and continues to improve) The good thing, in my mind, is that whoever takes over at that spot will be an upgrade in the run game. As much as I love Tausch, both he and Clifton are and were big, big liabilities when it comes to the zone blocking scheme.
Basically, I think the RT battle will be the highlight of camp.
Dan - It's tough to get any kind of read on Breno since we haven't seen him do anything other than stand on a sideline since he got drafted, save for a handful of snaps. The Packers have talked him up, that's for sure and they did indeed have him penciled in as the starter before he had surgery. I look forward to seeing what they have there.
I thought Barbre got a raw deal last year in his 'battle' with Colledge at the LG spot. I thought Barbre looked great in the limited action he got in the first pre-season game, and then... nothing. They pretty much handed the job back to Colledge. (Which is fine - I think he had a solid season and continues to improve) The good thing, in my mind, is that whoever takes over at that spot will be an upgrade in the run game. As much as I love Tausch, both he and Clifton are and were big, big liabilities when it comes to the zone blocking scheme.
Basically, I think the RT battle will be the highlight of camp.
I think the biggest question for the Pack offense is the potential success/failure of the offensive line. Seems to me there are a lot of players on that line who have way more "proving" to do than Rodgers or Grant. Furthermore, the holes for Grant and the health of Rodgers depends on their success, so that's even more reason to wonder.
Yep, I agree with everyone who defended Rodgers in the 4th quarter. He did fine, but the defense just disappeared every time.
Don't forget when he led the Pack to a lead against the Panthers, only to have Smith catch a Delhomme hail mary that led to the loss. And I say this as a Falcons fan.
I've even written John Clayton on ESPN, who first started the "Rodgers poor in 4th quarter" crap. (Incidentally, he also has this thing where he says "Orton was hand-picked by McDaniels to run the Broncos offnese"--uh, no, he was added so they'd have a quarterback...they really traded for the two first round picks!)
I think the lack of o-line strenght/health also contributed to Rodgers' 4th quarter perception; if they can run the ball, as Lombardi himself mentioned in his column a few days ago, they hold leads in the 4th quarter. As he mentions above, Grant and the OL were not up to their usual performance, leading to more on Rodgers when he should have simply been getting the snap and handing it to Grant.
Otherwise, I was THRILLED to find out the Falcons are not playing the Packers this season. I'd much rather face the Vikings, with Peterson's fumbles and Favre's gambling, or the Bears with Cutler without any good wideouts and an aging OL, or the Lions (for obvious reasons).
Yep, I agree with everyone who defended Rodgers in the 4th quarter. He did fine, but the defense just disappeared every time.
Dan @ MU - I think Breno's problem is that he was injured alot last year and thus couldn't get alot of practice reps and as far as I know, he was also injured for voluntary OTAs too.
Not so much a question of his talent but his health.
Mr. Lombardi, Great work as always. Can you go into more depth as to the rule differences between the college and pro game as they relate to an unbalanced line? I wasn't aware there were differences. Thanks.
RE: Aaron/MkePackFan - Agreed about Breno. I'm sure he'll be given a fair shot, but there's no point in holding on to talented guys if they never see the field.
I think when we switched to the zone blocking scheme, there was all this talk about smaller, more athletic linemen. At first, we might have gone TOO small, because I noticed us getting overpowered by some of the bigger, more physical defensive lines in football.
Hopefully the weight room work that guys like Spitz, Colledge and Barbre have done over the past few years will keep them mobile enough to fit the scheme but big enough to not get overpowered.
In any case, it seems McCarthy has begun to gravitate towards power running a bit more so as not to be a one trick pony when it comes to running the football. I have faith that the progression will continue. The most important part may be a healthy Grant returning to form, as Mr. Lombardi mentioned.
My concern with the O line is we now have three real promising prospects at right tackle in Lang, Barbre, and Giacomini, but none at left tackle. Jamon Meredith needs a year to get stronger and learn, and if Tony Moll is the answer there, I don't want to see the question.
Great article and smart comments. I am glad to hear from other people who actually watched the games last year and saw Rodgers put his team in a position to win in several of their losses. The talking heads at ESPN and such just latch on to the stat (0-7 in close games late) and use that to form their opinions, rather than watching the actual games. To add to the Packers/Panthers game comment from above, the team was down 21-10 at the half as well and AR led them back to take the lead with under 2 minutes left in the game. Thanks to a big return given up on the kick off (special teams was another big problem last year) and the aforementioned bomb to Smith, the Packers gave up the lead with only 27 (27!) seconds expiring off the game clock. A horrible display, and I believe if the Packers can get their special teams and defense up to just average levels, AR and the offense will take them the rest of the way.
Aaron/Cheesehead's analysis is correct about the Packers' OL as one of the keys.......but I suggest chicken salad is not possible with mediocre ingredients as the filler. Thus, Grant's lack of breakaway speed and ability to break tackles on initial impact spells doom for him being the answer.
Thompson cannot depend on Jackson or Wynn to be the answer if Grant is not, nor can FA Sutton be expected to shoulder much burden (if he makes the team).
Thus, I think GB's lack of firepower at RB will also prevent greatness in 2009.
Thompson's inability to get either FA's Turner (Atlanta) or Ward (Tampa) will again be obvious this season, I fear.
The dreaded 4th quarter myth lives on....The 2008 Packers outscored their opponents 150 - 131 in the 4th quarter of games. The 150 points the Packers put up in the 4th quarter was the most scoring of any quarter in '08. Aaron Rodgers QB rating in the 4th quarter ( within 7 points) was 89.4. per NFL.com. Room for improvement ? Absolutely ! Struggled ? Hardly.
The bigger shortcoming was the opening drive of the game and the opening drive of the 3rd quarter as noted on Cheesehead TV. Those drives were terrible, and offer lots of room for improvement for both Rodgers and McCarthy in 09.
Thanks for the effort Mike Lombardi, one more reason why NFP is the best site on the web.
Mike-
I was encouraged to read how exciting the Packers offense will be this season. That being said, it was not matter of if, rather when they would become dynamic offensively. 2 years ago, we announced our eplosive offense to the world with a 13-3 season and a trip to the NFC Championship game. While most of the country saw this, and undoubtedly said,
"Huh. Favre has still got it."
Most of the diehard Packer fans saw a strange thing happen that season: Our offense needed a QB to manage it, not orchestrate it. In other words, the pieces were in place for almost any QB to lead our team deep into the playoffs, what with our offensive weapons including WRs, and YAC superstars, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones. Throw into that mix an up-and-coming ground game, featuring your boy, Ryan Grant, and a peppering of Brandon Jackson to boot.
The difference that year, was that our fairly transparent defensive scheme was able to get pressure on opposing teams' QBs and our DBs kept them honest at the same time.
Fast forward to 2008. This was a year all about Brett Favre...or lack thereof. Once he retired, unretired, refused to battle AR for the starting QB spot, the pressure was ON. Not only on a young Aaron Rodgers, but on our WRs to prove they could do what they had done without #4, our coach, to prove he could still score points, and our GM to prove...well, everything.
As we all know, that year began with many Packer fans on the fence in the great debate, but by year end, the vast majority of TRUE Packer fans were convinced. This team did not need Brett Favre anymore, and furthermore could be better WITHOUT #4, and his at times stubborn nature.
The long short of it, great article. I will say this:
If people sleep on the Green Bay Packers this year, and see them as a 6-10 team, and as nothing more than that, you will be in for a rude awakening.
This team is for real.
The Ted Thompson/Anti-Favre jihadists continue to defend the abysmal record of Aaron Rodgers in come-from-behind situations last year by asserting that the it was the defense's fault.
Yeah, the same defense that had to be on the field because Rodgers did not get that first down on the last series.
Statistics can be used to "prove" anything. For instance, the vast majority of Rodgers' interceptions last year (ten out of thirteen) were thrown iin situations in which the Packers were trailing in the game. And Rodgers' QB rating is lower in those situations. Arguably, that shows that the guy is not a "gamer."
The bottom line is that he had multiple chances to get it done, or to put the game out of reach before the other team can come from behind (e.g., Carolina) and he did not do so. That being said, I think the guy is a good quarterback.
Grant's holdout and bum hammy is what hurt him last year. He's admitted he couldn't "bust it loose" all season because of the bad hamstring. I could easily see him in the 4.5 ypc area.
I also like Brandon Jackson. Not as a #1, rather a solid backup. He's not a breakaway threat, but keeps the chains moving. I think he should get more carries - and not of the 3rd down draw variety. His combine numbers for last year and the last regular season game of 07 (when he got significant carries) are: 65 carries, 361 yards, 5.5 ypc. Why not give him more carries?
Thanks InFact, but I have to disagree if only just a bit. I think Grant will be much better than he was last year, as will the running game overall. That said, Grant is not a special back. As you state, none of the Packers backs are.
But in McCarthy's offense, it just doesn't matter. And where I would disagree slightly with Mike on his assessment is in saying that Grant is the key. He's not - Rodgers is. The back in this system simply needs to be serviceable, which all of them are.
Randal67 u r an idiot
both teams will contend for the division along with the bears untill the end. i expect a tie breaker
BigJohn:
Favre threw game-losing picks in so many playoff games, that your point falls on deaf ears. Aaron Rodgers was asked to fill #4's enormous shoes, and he did an exceptional job. Either you don't like the Packers, or are Scott Favre. Either way, your argument holds little weight, and uses the words of a bitter, Favre-loving, crazy person.
Check this out:
http://www.steelertribute.com/countdown36.htm
It has all of Brett Favre's most memorable choke jobs of his career, all of which, I'm sure you and your drinking buddies have stricken from your respective memories. Enjoy.
A few to hook some folks into follwing the link:
7.) 1995 NFC Championship Game vs Cowboys
The Packers get themselves into an early 14-3 hole thanks to a costly screen pass interception that Favre throws to Leon Lett. To his credit, Favre battles back and plays a great game – until the 4th quarter, that is. The Cowboys hold a 31-27 lead but the Packers have the ball with the chance to take the lead and go to the Super Bowl. As usual, Favre gets reckless. Scrambling away from pressure, he tries to hurl a deep pass to WR Mark Ingram. The ball is picked off by CB Larry Brown (who will also make a key interception two weeks later at Super Bowl XXX as we all remember). Dallas then ices the game for good.
6.) Super Bowl XXXII vs Broncos
Denver has just scored the go-ahead touchdown. There is 1:45 left in the Super Bowl and the Packers, who still have two of their timeouts, need to go 70 yards to tie the game. This is the moment where legends are made. Joe Montana needed to go 92 yards in the final minutes of Super Bowl XXXIII, and he did it. Ben Roethlisberger needed to go 88 yards in the final minutes of Super Bowl XLIII, and he did it. Could Brett Favre not do it too? After all, this is the exact situation where ESPN.com said that "if there's a minute left on the clock and my team needs to go 80 yards for a score, give me Favre" instead of players like Montana. So what happens? Favre drives the Packers about half of the way, then goes four and out to lose the Super Bowl. Where is the legendary moment? Favre is no Montana. He is no Roethlisberger. He has no career-defining last-second drive to put on his resume, despite what the media would have you believe.
2.) 2003 NFC Divisional Playoffs vs Eagles
Eagles QB Donovan McNabb has just amazingly converted a 4th and 26 to send the game into overtime. What can Favre do to match that brilliant clutch play? On Green Bay’s first offensive play of overtime, Favre floats a duck over the middle of the field. Eagles safety Brian Dawkins, who looks as if he is waiting to return a punt, patiently waits for the ball to land right into his hands. Dawkins then returns the ball to the Packers 34 yard line, where kicker David Akers is able to nail the game-winning field goal to send Philadelphia to the NFC title game.
'eXplosive'
Adding to my comment, I figure I should submit one more choke, #4's last in a Packer jersey:
1.) 2007 NFC Championship Game vs Giants
How many quarterbacks have thrown interceptions in overtime of a playoff game that directly led to their team losing? And how many have done it on MULTIPLE occasions? There is only one name on that exclusive list. In 2007, the Packers host the Giants for the right to go to Super Bowl XLII. Trailing by three in the 4th quarter, Favre throws an interception that should give New York a chance to ice the game, but R.W. McQuarters fumbles the ball and Green Bay is able to tie the game on a field goal, no thanks to Favre. The game goes into overtime and the Packers have the ball. It’s time for Brett Favre to show why "no one else is better in the clutch", as the media claims. But on the second play of overtime, Favre throws an awful interception into the hands of Corey Webster, and this time there is no fumble to save him. The Giants kick the game-winning field goal to shock the Packers. Fittingly, Favre’s final pass in a Packers uniform is an interception.
Big John:
"Arguably, that shows that the guy is not a "gamer." "
and
"That being said, I think the guy is a good quarterback."
Got it. So, you're a fair-weather Packer fan, and you have no conviction?
I wonder if one has anything to do with the other.
Paiging 'Big John', you are needed at the Metro Dome Ticket office, you seem to be our lucky Viking fan of the game.
Brad:
I agree with you on the Brandon Jackson tip; that guy is too dynamic, and beyond that, too different from Ryan Grant for the Packers NOT to utilize him more.
Lombardi,
I actually have an interesting take on the Packers' offense. An intriguing rookie free agent acquisition, Devin Frischknecht, has the potential to integrate himself into the lineup. As for now, he is the fifth tight end on the roster, but by virtue of special teams, he may be able to show his true worth. That's how Terrell Davis started with my Broncos so many years ago. We'll see how things go but if he can make the team, perhaps he'll be a staple of the Packers offense in years to come. As for the current Green Bay offense, Ryan Grant will be better and Aaron Rodgers will ensue in his progression as a solid NFL quarterback. The Vikings do appear to have taken a step back because Brett Favre is finished.
I love that line from Bill Walsh. It makes a lot of sense and coming from one of the greatest coaches of all time only solidifies its clout.
And that is the biggest thing that worries me about McDaniels in Denver. I am not worried about Orton being our QB and I am not worried about the B Marshall stuff. Everything I am reading out of OTAs and Camps makes me think he is trying to do much out there in his first year.
So Michael if you get a chance if you could just go ahead and e-mail that line to Josh I would really appreciate it. ;)
As far as the actual topic. Green Bay has a pretty good offense and I am sure they will only get better in Rodger's second full year as starter. They have a great receiving corps, I really like Rodgers as a QB, a solid backfield with Grant and Jackson. I admit I don't know much about their OL though.
Like you said Michael their defense is the question mark. They are changing schemes this year. So the front seven is a question mark. Can Pickett and Jolly make the transition? Can Kampman make the transition to OLB? Capers is one of the best D Coordinators in the NFL so that should relieve some worries. But I think it is this D and a competitive division/conference that will limit this team, though I think they make the playoffs if not by winning the division then a wild card.
Brad:
Agreed about Jackson, as well. It's a copycat league, and it seems like more teams are choosing to limit the wear and tear on their RBs by splitting carries more and more. Over the last few years we've seen the emergence of "Smash and Dash" (regardless of which tandem - Carolina or Tennessee - has control of that nickname) and "Earth, Wind and Fire" in New York.
Could Grant and Jackson, with a bit of Wynn sprinkled in, be next?
Nice article, Mr. Lombardi. I agree with all the comments (even from fans of other teams) that Rodgers was fine in crunch time. Most of the meltdowns came from the defense and ST (anybody remember the Bears game?).
As far as the OL, Barbre actually played LT in college and could possibly slide over if Clifton can't go or Colledge would move to LT and Barbre or Lang could spell him at LG. The Packers have some good young, developing O linemen and Redding's workout techniques will only help. We are going to have some excellent competition at RT with Lang, Barbre, and Breno. Any one of those three added with Sitton on the right side and we're going to see a much nastier disposition on that side of the line as opposed to Tony Moll and Co...ugh!!!
The one thing people have neglected in mentioning GB's move to a power running game is Quinn Johnson! The guy is a freight-train and will help open holes for Grant, Jackson, and Wynn that simply weren't there last year.
As for the transition to the 3-4, yes there will be growing pains but Ted Thompson went out and got players built especially for the 3-4. Raji and Matthews are going to apply pressure that was non-existent last year outside of Kampman. And by the way, Kampy will get comfortable and play a lot of plays with his hand on the ground as well as OLB. This team is going to be one other teams will NOT want to see on their schedule! I can't wait. :)
I agree that the offense "should" be better. Our scoring numbers were a little skewed last year because the number of TDs scored by defense and special teams.
One of the things Mr. Lombardi did not mention is the shuffling of the line (Spitz to center, Sitton at RG and Barbre at RT) and the addition of sledhammer fullback Quinn Johnson. If all other factors remained the same this would almost certainly help the rushing offense. The extra year of experience for Rodgers and the health of Grant are also going to help. I'd expect this to be a Top 5 offense and I don't think the Vikings, with or without Favre, are going to be at that level.
Andrew N., thanks for mentioning Capers! How could I have forgotten that one??? Excellent hire and outside of GB, folks may not be familiar with Trgovac, the new DL coach. He's outstanding and I think he'll have these young linemen ready to go.
I also agree with the comments on Brandon Jackson. I hope he gets more opportunities this year. I'm more concerned about our Safties than these other positions we've discussed so far.
And yes, Aaron Rodgers will be great IF given protection. We've got excellent weapons for him. I'm much more comfortable with his approach than Favre's 'gunslinger' mentality that choked WAY too many times in critical situations, as has been posted here.
DeShawn Wynn will be the back up RB. He has a quick first cut, gets his pads parallel to the line and powers ahead. He's also better in pass protection. Brandon Jackson will see the field but I expect more Wynn.
The Packers might have a few questions at tackle, but they also had questions during their 90's glory years. Earl Dotson's back. John Michels. Mike Wahle coming in for Ross Verba. They've had trouble at guard before, as well. They managed to be successful. I have confidence that Rodger's mobility and other playmakers can pick up the slack.
The Vikes have a question mark at right tackle, with Phil Loadholdt coming in as a rookie. He will be blocking Ogunleye, Justin Tuck, Aaron Smith/Lamar Woodley, Trevor Price, not to mention the Bj Raji/Aaron Kampman combination.
So, we will see.
Jeff:
"The Vikes have a question mark at right tackle, with Phil Loadholdt coming in as a rookie. He will be blocking Ogunleye, Justin Tuck, Aaron Smith/Lamar Woodley, Trevor Price, not to mention the Bj Raji/Aaron Kampman combination."
Love your thinking, brother. Bring on the pressure!!!
BigJohn is more correct than wrong with his assessment of Rodgers ...
Aaron Rodgers was an adequete replacement for Favre last year as the defense did fall apart way too often. He was a decent game manager and played to not make mistakes. People liked this because Favre used to push to much which led to turnovers. Problem here is that they ended up 6-10, not all that falls on the defense's shoulders.
Playing not to lose is a sure fired way to let the other team back into the game. Too many 3 & out series in the fourth, and you end up giving the opposition a chance to get back into the game.
Bottom line is that the Quarterback is the team leader and is ultimately measured by Wins & Losses, not stats. Both Rodgers and McCarty need to step up their play and game planning in the 4th quarter ... way too conservative imo.
I also agree that failing to score on your opening drive is a problem. Rodgers showed some good signs last year, but has a long way to go to making the next step and being a good quarterback in the 4th qrt and delivering a win, not just protecting a lead. Teams also now have film on him from last year so they will be game planning for him. Many 2nd year quarterbacks fail to repeat the previous year's success bacause teams know their tendencies and weakness.
BTW, criticizing the Packers for only acheiving a 6-10 record last year after 3-4 yeras of re-building means that you actually are a fan and not just a homer.
Jeff:
As far as the RBs are concerned, I see Tyrell Sutton taking the last RB spot from Wynn. While Wynn is solid in pass protection, the NFL is about 'what have you done for me now'? Within that sentiment, Wynn is rarely healthy. Furthermore, Sutton is an adept pass-receiving RB out of the backfield. I hope to see he, and Brandon Jackson get more touches, with Grant finishing games off, a la Dallas' RBs in 09.
Mike S u= you r = are idiot = you
Who cares what you expect. Go cry in your #4 Packer Jersey.
Tazeus:
I have been a Packer fan all of my life. I have always been the first one to criticize something...anything that I think will hold the Packers back, or could potentially make them a better team. That being said, to blame the teams' downfall last season on Aaron Rodger is not only not just in my opinion, it is irrationally so. The injuries on defense, and specifically the losses of Cullen Jenkins, Atari Bigby, and KGB, to mention a few starters, were devistating to a team that had put most of its eggs in its proverbial offensive basket, as it were. We simply could not make up for a lack of pass rush, and late in games, we were unable to stop teams. Couple the defensive injuries with spotty kicking by Mason Crosby, who looked to be one of the best kickers in the NFL following his magical 07 campaign, and we had a recipe for disaster.
But you're probably right I AM the one with a jaded perception of how things transpired. Aaron Rodgers and his 08 stats speak to how much worse he was than Brett Favre in 08.
Rodgers: [16gs]-[341cmp]-[536att]-[63.6pct]-[4,038yds]-[7.5yds/att]-[28tds]-[13ints]-[34scks]-[231yds/lost]-[93.8rat]-[10fum]-[3fumL]
Favre: [16gs]-[343cmp]-[522att]-[65.7pct]-[3,472yds]-[6.7yds/att]-[22tds]-[22ints]-[30scks]-[213 yds/lost]-[81.0rat]-[10fum]-[2fumL]
Their respective Yards-per-attempt, and TD count, shows that Rodgers throws downfield more than Favre, as opposed to the picture you were painting. He also does so while throwing less interceptions, but who's really counting right? Favre MUST be better.
Jeff:
The reason I say this about Sutton and Jackson starting games off is, the NFL has become more specialized. When we are 3, or even 4 wide, with Jermichael Finley in the mix, we need a RB to be on the field that can pass-protect, but moreso one that can catch a short dump off, and turn it into 60. Sutton and Jackson fit that role. I know Wynn had a long gain at the end of the 08 campaign, but I think that one shocked the opposition as much as the Packers. He is not going to do that too many more times in his career. Sure, the guy can break a tackle, but he may break first. I know that the counter is to say that Jackson and Sutton have hardly had injury-free careers, but at least they can hurt a defense in an instant, unlike Wynn, who is a feature back type with a brittle body. He gets hit too much, too highly. Sutton and Jackson can get down with their smaller frames, and avoid bone-breaking shots from the ever larger, DBs of today's NFL.
Jeff:
The reason I say this about Sutton and Jackson starting games off is, the NFL has become more specialized. When we are 3, or even 4 wide, with Jermichael Finley in the mix, we need a RB to be on the field that can pass-protect, but moreso one that can catch a short dump off, and turn it into 60. Sutton and Jackson fit that role. I know Wynn had a long gain at the end of the 08 campaign, but I think that one shocked the opposition as much as the Packers. He is not going to do that too many more times in his career. Sure, the guy can break a tackle, but he may break first. I know that the counter is to say that Jackson and Sutton have hardly had injury-free careers, but at least they can hurt a defense in an instant, unlike Wynn, who is a feature back type with a brittle body. He gets hit too much, too highly. Sutton and Jackson can get down with their smaller frames, and avoid bone-breaking shots from the ever larger, DBs of today's NFL.
BigJohn
Jul 07, 2009
01:08 PM The Ted Thompson/Anti-Favre jihadists continue to defend the abysmal record of Aaron Rodgers in come-from-behind situations last year by asserting that the it was the defense's fault.
Yeah, the same defense that had to be on the field because Rodgers did not get that first down on the last series.
Statistics can be used to "prove" anything. For instance, the vast majority of Rodgers' interceptions last year (ten out of thirteen) were thrown iin situations in which the Packers were trailing in the game.
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Well gee, Big John, I seem to remember the Packers being behind in most of their games anyway because of a horrible defense, so yeah, it makes sense that most of his INTs came when the Packers were behind.
Here is another situational stat for you genius...
Point Situation:
Behind 10 INTs
Behind 1-8 points 1 INT
Behind 9-16 points 7 INT
Behind +17 points 2 INT
So in situations were the Packers were only losing by 8 points (1 TD + 2 pt), he threw 1 INT! 3 of his INTs came with less than 2 minutes left in the half (both halves, not the 1st or 2nd specifically)
He had 150 pass attempts while ahead, 258 attempts while behind, and 128 while tied...so again, he played and accumulated most of his stats WHILE BEHIND because of a bad D.
And yeah, Rodgers didn't get some of those 1st downs to continue a late drive...but it's McCarthy calling the plays, not Rodgers....Rodgers didn't have the flexibility to audible last season, he will this season...plus how many 3rd & shorts and 4th & shorts did we fail to convert via running? Too many for me to recall
Excellent story, and I agree with most of it. One other wrinkle I would note is that McCarthy and the offensive staff seemed to tighten up on play calling in the 4th quarter with Rodgers. I don't think they didn't trust him so much as they didn't want him taking chances and making it look like he lost the game. As it turned out, people blamed him anyway.
This wasn't a massive shift, just that from where I watched the games it looked like the play calling took the foot just a touch off the gas late in games. I suspect this year both because they will trust Rodgers more and because he took all the abuse anyway, we'll see a 4th quarter Packer squad playing with the aggressiveness of the 2nd quarter Packers.
I also hope we'll see the Packers go back to the 'pass the ball to set up the run' style of Mike Holmgren. With the quality they have at receiver, go ahead, double up Jennings to shut him down, that means Driver, Nelson, or Jones have to be single covered. I love the idea of the opposition nickel back lining up against James of Nelson. Looking forward to this season.
"Randal67
Jul 07, 2009
11:34 AM
2009 Vikings 12-4 Packers 4-12 "
Ok, so which 5 of these 9 games are they going to win? Only GB on Oct 5th is in the weeks 1-4 when the VIkes will be without the Williams sisters. I personally think they'll lose at least 5 of the 9 below and probably 1 or 2 of the cupcake games not listed below. So, that means 9-7, maybe 10-6, but very doubtful 12-4 with this schedule.
Mon. Oct. 5 Green Bay Packers
Sun. Oct. 18 Baltimore Ravens
Sun. Oct. 25 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun. Nov. 1 @ Green Bay Packers
Sun. Nov. 29 Chicago Bears
Sun. Dec. 6 @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun. Dec. 20 @ Carolina Panthers
Mon. Dec. 28 @ Chicago Bears
Sun. Jan. 3 N Y Giants
That horrible defense with two great veteran corners and some pass rush ability actually stopped the Aaron Rodgers juggernaut.
They were nine win material if it wasn't for the D!
That's good for a road game exit in a week or two!
I'm stunned to find myself in agreement with a Chicago Bears fan, but Eric from Chicago hit the nail on the head. I have felt for some time that Rodgers is a better QB for the system than Favre. His mobility and accuracy, and the way he takes care of the ball makes him superior to Favre. Favre would give you the big play, but he would often go cold and give you three and out repeatedly, missing easy throws, making bad reads, trying to force the ball down the field when he had open receivers for first down yardage. Rodgers will improve, the defense will improve, the kicking and return games will improve, and the team will improve.
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