Favre's Vegas problem

Now that it’s official, it’s time to look closely at what the sports betting world feels about the return of Brett Favre to the NFL.

As recently as Monday, the Vikings were 20-1 to win the Super Bowl -- meaning that $100 bet on Minnesota would have paid off $2,000. After the signing, the odds were quickly reduced to 17-1. So it would appear Favre is a difference maker.

APBrett Favre.

Ah, not so fast. A vast majority of Super Bowl future action comes from small bettors – the type who take a $20 shot based on their gut feelings. Brett Favre is clearly a major factor in this type of bettor’s mind. But what about the professionals?

Prior to Favre’s signing, the Vikings were projected to win a total of 9.5 games in 2009. After the signing, the projection on Minnesota’s wins has stayed exactly the same. That’s right – no uptick at all. The vast majority of season win action comes from professional bettors who are extremely sharp in their opinions. This sharp group has concluded that the addition of Favre is irrelevant to Minnesota’s chances this season.

Often, you have to dig below the surface to get to the true answer. It’s noteworthy to mention that as recently as last season, big bettors still seemingly held Favre in high regard. In 2008 the New York Jets were initially projected to win 7 games; that number increased 1.5 games to 8.5 once Favre joined the team. What’s different this year? It could be Favre’s mixed play last year has soured wiseguys on his ability to contribute.

Another theory is that the Minnesota odds all along assumed that Favre would end up being the Vikings quarterback. It’s not a stretch to say that the genuine odds-shifting event would have been Brett Favre actually staying retired.

RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com, the largest sports betting news website compliant with U.S. law.

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