Five offensive players who may surprise

Hi Matt -- way to give props to fellow Hawkeye, Ladell Betts!!! ... very underrated and I think if given a chance for a larger role in an offense, he'd surprise people. He's was a bruiser @ Iowa and still in the NFL - probably a big reason he's been in the league going on 9 years.

GO HAWKS!!!

If you add fumbles lost to the equation, Orton does have a higher career turnover percentage. However, I think you have to keep in mind the fact that Orton was playing behind a line that gave up close to 30 sacks in both of Orton's full (close to full) seasons. Cutler played behind the leagues best O-line last year (tied for best). When he faced the same number of sacks as Orton (2007) he dropped the ball 11 times with 4 losses. I think it is fair to say that the fumbles lost stat falls on more than the QB.

Here is the stat you can't blame on anyone but the QB, Cutler has had a higher interception percentage than Orton every year he has played in the NFL. And that is with a far superior line.

Cutler Orton
2008 2.9 2.4
2007 3.0 2.5
2006 3.7 no snaps
2005 college 2.4

I'm not going to pretend Orton will be as fun to watch as Cutler was, but I think people are giving Cutler too much credit, and giving Orton too little. It should be a fun contest to keep track of for a few years.

Nice article Matt, it was nice to see a MSM member look at Orton with an open mind.

Nice comments about Cutler and Orton MiamiMike. Agreed! Also, you missed the fact that Denver had an O-Line, "maybe the best Tackles in football", and Chicago did not have anything close to an OL. Not to mention the win/loss career record. You also missed the part about Cutler and his much better pouting abilities vs. Orton who does not seem to have any Ego, just a team concept..... That is going to be a huge change in Denver alone! the number one thing that will stand in Denver's way is their "toughest schedule in league" vs a milktoast schedule for Chicago!

Great article I found that gives stats and facts: it is interesting.


Since Kyle Orton is forever going to be compared to the quarterback he is taking over for in Denver, Jay Cutler, I thought it would be appropriate to compare their numbers from last season and try to decide how Orton would fair going into his first year with the Broncos.

Last year for the Bears (9-7), Orton played in 15 games compiling 18 Touchdowns, 12 picks, threw for almost 3,000 yards, a QB rating of 79.6, and completed 59 percent of his throws. Okay, admittedly those numbers are not outstanding but they are by no means horrible.

When you look at these numbers, you need to keep a couple things in mind.

First off his leading receiver in catches, was a rookie running back. Taking nothing away from Matt Forte, who had an amazing rookie season, a quarterback's go to receiver should never have to be a rookie running back.

Second, his leading receiver in yards was Devin Hester, who wasn't used as a receiver until his second season in the league (2007). Hester was converted from solely a kick/punt returner to wide out mainly because the Bears had no better options to run out there to catch balls.

He improved last year as a receiver but by no means should be a number one receiver in any offense.

Jay Cutler on the other hand, was throwing to a Pro Bowl receiver in Brandon Marshall and rookie sensation Eddie Royal. Not to mention tight end, Tony Scheffler, who caught over 600 yards and had 3 touchdowns.

Cutler's numbers: 25 touchdowns, 18 picks, over 4,500 yards, a QB rating of 86 and a completion percentage of 62. Immediately, the only stat that is considerably better than Orton is the yards.

But you have to remember the Broncos' defense was constantly putting the offense in a position where Cutler had to pass, pass, pass. Add in the fact that every Broncos running back that stepped on the field got hurt, its no wonder Cutler was able to pile up the yards.

For all these extra yards Cutler threw for, he only managed seven more touchdown passes than Orton. In fact if you break down their numbers further, Cutler averaged a touchdown every 24 attempts.

Orton, every 26. This tells us that if Orton were to throw as many attempts as Cutler, their numbers, touchdown to interception ratio, would have been very comparable.

And all this comes with Cutler throwing to SUBSTANTIALLY better receivers! There is just simply no arguing that. Cutler had a clear cut No. 1, a No. 2 and a decent tight end. Orton was chucking the ball to a bunch of No. 3's and a couple good tight ends!

Regarding Kyle Orton, he should do "ok" in Denver's short-medium passing game. Regarding comparisons to Cutler...

* Denver had one of the league's worst defenses in 2008. Cutler was forced to throw the ball WAY too much.

* Even after his ankle healed, Kyle Orton was not the QB in the second half of 2008 that he was in the first half. Look at his "performances" against the Packers and Saints in Chicago. Two lousy defenses, two lousy performances by Orton. Teams adjusted and he struggled to "adjust" back

Sorry CDS and Miami Mike - I think you're forgetting..

* Who was Brandon Marshall before the ascension of Jay Cutler? Answer? A non-descript 4th round draft pick who had an "ok" rookie season. Royal? Caught a TON of passes as a rookie, but "sensation" is more than overblown - 90 receptions, but failed to gain 1,000 receiving? Good? Yes. Sensational? No.

* Escapability. The Denver oline had an extremely mobile QB to block for in Jay Cutler. They won't have that in Kyle Orton. Orton WILL benefit from McDaniel's short passing attack, but he won't be able to save the offensive line in the same fashion that Cutler did. Also...

* Few QB's are less effective downfield than Kyle Orton. He completed 1 pass that traveled over 30 yards in the are in 2008. ONE. Is that all the blame of the WR's? Hardly - Marshall won't have deadly accurate laser beams thrown to him anymore.

* The Bronco TE's aren't as talented as Greg Olsen and Dez Clark. This isn't remotely debatable.

* The Broncos have one of the league's least talented rosters "top to bottom." Their defense looks WORSE on paper now than it did in 2008, when it was a league-wide laughing stock. It's an awful lot to ask of a 3rd year QB to carry team with no real running game and no defense.

* The Bear WR corps IS a question mark, because of it's lack of experience. Cutler carried Marshall to greatness beginning in 2007 and helped make a "star" out of an "ok" receiver in Eddie Royal in '08. My money is on him doing the same for his friend from Vanderbilt Earl Bennett, rookies Juaquin Iglesias and Johnny Knox...not to mention Devin Hester, whom Kyle Orton missed deep downfield AT LEAST 11 times in 2008.

Nice FF info! It has me thinking about scenarios I wasn't looking at before.

I'm not sure how the pats keep doing it but Galloway has to be the biggest WR sleeper this season. How do you join the most prolific prolific WR tandem and not draw the weakest DB? If Galloway established chemistry with Tom early it will be a long season for any backfield.

NECutlerFan: "His turnover percentage (interceptions and fumbles lost) per attempt is higher than Cutler's. "

You're right. Barely.

ATT INT Fumbles Lost Turnover ratio
Orton 2008 465 12 3 3.23%
Orton Career 913 27 5 3.50%

Cutler 2008 616 18 2 3.25%
Cutler Career 1220 37 5 3.44%

.06% career difference. I'm not enough of an NFL statistician to say, but I'd say that was pretty close to being a statistically insignificant difference (not to mention the differences in the quality of scheme and personnel Cutler played with, vs. Orton).

What I did find interesting in investigating what you wrote is that Cutler was lucky enough to recover his own fumbles more often. Over their careers, Cutler has fumbled 16 times, recovered 5; Orton has fumbled only 10 times, and lost 5. If you're going to get into the nitty gritty, it certainly does seem like Cutler is more careless with the ball. We'll see how well he does when he doesn't have an o-line to protect his fumble-itis.

OK to 'good not great' is what I expect as well from Orton. Most of my optimism centers around Orton moving from windy Chicago to Denver, learning from Tom Brady's old coach, setting up in the shotgun more often like he did at Purdue, and having the two Ryan's keeping his jersey clean(er). I say clean(er), because I think he will make the line look slightly more human as he has nowhere near the scrambling abilities Cutler possesses.

I think Orton will be up and down as he gets comfortable over the first half of the season. The real test will be the second half of the season, does he pick it up or does he level off short of good enough. As a Bronco fan I hold my strongest hope at this point for how Tom Brandstater turns out in a couple of years.

As far as deep balls go Cutler was hardly the king of consistent accurate touch when he threw deep. You can look at Royal's amazing grab of a deep pass in the Brown's game from last year, Cutler threw inside to Royal sprinting down the sideline, the pass had pick written all over it, luckily Royal looked the CB outside, and ducked under for the long reception and YAC. This theory that Cutler came up with, that he had made Marshall and Royal what they were is a ridiculous insult to both. Marshall's size at 6'4.5" 230 makes him a dangerous possession receiver who can get big YAC even though he isn't going to outrun anybody, admittedly his numbers will go down without Cutler locking on to him, but that doesn't make him less valuable, just less used. Royal runs routes better than a lot of vets, and he did so as a rookie. A rookie WR who can break into a pretty impressive WR corp and put up 90 catches is nothing to scoff at.

Unfortunately Orton will be relying heavily on the Defense picking up a new system in short order. Last year the Broncos biggest defensive weakness was the secondary as they ran through safety's at nearly the rate they ran through RB's. The signing of an admittedly slowing, but I think still strong Dawkins along with Goodman went a long way towards sealing up the secondary, both from passes and deep penetrating runs. We'll see how effective the brand new line does though. That has to be the biggest question mark for the team. How well can the front seven gel and stand against some very tough teams this year?

As for Cutler being forced to throw too much, the Bronco's were opening games throwing like crazy, the problem more often than not was Cutler's reluctance to run through progressions or throw away from double and triple teams on Marshall. It is well known that the D did Cutler few favors, but what is less remembered is all of the short fields Cutler left the Defense with. This is not to say that Cutler will not progress, but as he stands right now, he has shown a flaw he needs to correct to be an elite QB, at least in my book.

I admit my knowledge of Orton's performance last year is very limited, but if I remember correctly wasn't his injury a high ankle sprain? Those take 3-4 months to heal. I think he was playing injured.

I really haven't paid any attention to Olsen or Clark (not since he left Denver), but Scheffler and Graham are no slouch's. If Cutler had been saddled with Chicago's wideouts and Denver's own TEs I would expect them to have the kind of numbers Olsen and Clark put up. But clearly that is all speculation.

If Cutler doesn't fold under the pressure and stays on course, he'll make Olson a star. That's a match made in heaven.

Sorry, I meant that Cutler has fumbled 16 times and lost 5, while Orton has fumbled only 10 times and lost 5.

Totally agree on Galloway, and how about another new Patriot, Fred Taylor? I think both those moves were pure Belichik genius.

I also think Laverneus Coles has a huge year in Cincy. Same for Willie Parker in Pittsburgh.