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Jets-Broncos Thursday night betting primer

Rex Ryan’s team is currently a 6-point favorite for tonight’s game. Joe Fortenbaugh

November 17, 2011
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NEW YORK JETS (5-3, 1-3 road) at DENVER BRONCOS (4-5, 1-3 home)

Time: 8:20pm ET (NFL Network)
Opening line: NY Jets -5/42.5
Current line: NY Jets -6/40
Current betting trends: 78% backing the JETS, 55% backing the UNDER.

New York Jets: 4-5 against the spread, OVER is 6-3
Denver Broncos: 4-5 against the spread, OVER is 6-3

INTERESTING TRENDS

1. The Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
2. The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
3. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against AFC opponents.
4. The Broncos are 1-8-1 in their last ten games following an ATS win.
5. The OVER is 7-0 in the Jets’ last seven games on grass.
6. The OVER is 12-2 in the Broncos’ last 14 home games.
7. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Denver.

KEY INJURIES

NEW YORK JETS: OUT: WR Jeremy Kerley (knee), TE Shawn Nelson (illness), S Brodney Poole (knee), RB LaDainian Tomlinson (knee). PROBABLE: WR Plaxico Burress (low back), DT Mike Devito (knee), DT Marcus Dixon (shoulder), DT Kenrick Ellis (ankle), LB David Harris (ankle), WR Santonio Holmes (foot), C Nick Mangold (ankle), LB Joshua Mauga (low back), RB Joe McKnight (toe), LB Calvin Pace (groin), CB Darrelle Revis (knee), G Matt Slauson (ankle), CB Isaiah Trufant (hamstring), WR Patrick Turner (kidney).

DENVER BRONCOS: OUT: RB Knowshon Moreno (knee). QUESTIONABLE: RB Willis McGahee (hamstring). PROBABLE: T Ryan Clady (knee), T Chris Clark (knee), S Brian Dawkins (ankle), TE Julius Thomas (ankle), CB Cassius Vaughn (hamstring), LB Wesley Woodyard (knee).

EXPERT ANALYSIS

Vegas Runner, Las Vegas Handicapper, Pregame.com: “For starters, let me confirm for you that it's NOT sharp money that's forced the line move. In fact, when books opened the line up at NYJ -5, they immediately caught some steam on the Broncos and were forced to go to -4 on the Jets. Since then, public money has continued to come in on New York and that trend will remain the same until this game kicks-off.

Tim TebowICONCan Tim Tebow engineer another win for the surging Broncos?

The books that don't attract wise guy money have already gone up to that key number of 7, but the sharper books don't want the liability that comes with creating a 3-point middle opportunity.

My raw power-ratings show that the Jets should be a -6.5 point favorite against the Broncos on a neutral field, but this game is being playing in the high altitude of Denver. So far this season, the Broncos have faired much better on the road, but we still should give them at least 2.5 points for playing at home. Factor that into the price and my figures show that the Jets should only be a 4-point favorite, which is right where the betting syndicates let the books know they believed it should be, with some early steam that I touched on above.”

Johnny Avello, Director of Race & Sports Operations, Wynn and Encore Resorts & Casinos: “The game opened up at NYJ -5.5 and we’re currently at NYJ -6. It’s one of those games with a lot of hype around it because of Tebow and as a result, there’s a lot of exposure. The Jets will probably get bet late, so we’ll most likely need the Broncos by game time. I can see the game getting bet under, too. Tebow’s not going to throw the ball a lot and is not going to take a lot of chances, as the Jets will probably put nine guys in the box and play the wideouts one on one.

The Broncos don’t have a lot of options compared to what the Jets saw last week against New England. It’s going to be a run-oriented attack, with Tebow rolling out and throwing the ball when needed, so the Jets can plan for this one a little bit easier. With that kind of strategy, I think the game will probably get bet under.

In regards to traveling across the country on short rest, I don’t know if playing on a Sunday night means anything for the Jets, because they’re in a situation right now where wins are very crucial. You have to come back and be fully motivated to play.”

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

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