NFL football seasons are fragile, and in Green Bay and Chicago, two seasons are at a major crossroads. Both teams sit at 4-4, and both are coming off embarrassing losses on Sunday.
But head coaches Mike McCarthy and Lovie Smith can do something about it — as long as the players are still buying into what they’re teaching.
You see, as fragile as football seasons are in this league, players are even more delicate. Every team that struggles, and every team that falls flat down the home stretch of the 2009 season, will have one common denominator that won’t be talked about often in the major media outlets. But it’s a major reality for coaches.
And that’s when the players — the same ones who were talking playoffs back in August — shut it down. They stop playing for their head coach, and they stop believing in the schemes, the meetings and the practice sessions. They become tired of, well, the season, and that starts and ends at the top — because NFL players will turn their backs on a football program in a minute.
Sure, it’s hard to believe, but the worst thing that could happen to a team like the Bears or the Packers at this point in the season is to suffer another quick loss this week, because then the players will start to talk -- and when that happens, you can forget about 2009.
From my perspective as a former player, that’s exactly where the Packers and Bears are right now. Yes, both teams have major issues. The Packers have given up 37 sacks, they blew a fourth-quarter lead against a rookie QB in his first ever pro start, and the way I see it, they’ve taken the field the past two Sundays looking as unprepared as any Packers team I’ve ever seen.
The Bears are no different. Their last two losses — outside of a lackluster win over the Cleveland Browns — have been examples of poor defense. Lovie’s team gave up a total of 886 yards and 86 points to the Bengals and the Cardinals, which could turn out to be the worst losses of Lovie’s tenure as head man in Chicago.
But 4-4 is not 1-7, or 2-6, and as bad as these two teams have been of late, they’re still battling Atlanta, Philly, Carolina, San Fran and the Giants for two wild card spots.
Easy for us to say that McCarthy and Smith are on the hot seats in their respective jobs, but we know better, and I don’t see any possible scenario where they would be out of work next year. No, they’re the coaches of these teams for the near future, but that doesn’t hide the fact that they have to earn back their players’ trust.
But their main job is to find a way to keep their team together, to bring back those high hopes from August, because I guarantee their players are frustrated, and their players have questions about their coaching styles. Losing does that — and losing like both of these teams have been doing in recent weeks can send players over the edge. When that happens, it’s tough to turn a season around at this level.
I saw it myself as a Redskin in 2003. A 3-1 start. But a quick losing streak brought us back to reality, and the team started to slide. We all questioned the leadership from inside the walls of the locker room, and by late November, we were done. Guys had packed it in, and what was once a promising season in early October turned into a dreadful finish, a coaching change and a whole new locker room the following spring. And that’s just how fragile these situations can be.
Can McCarthy and Smith find a way to get a win this week and make a November push that leads to meaningful games in December?
Their first step is to make real adjustments, not just something they say at the weekly press conferences. Get in the minds of the players, find an even ground and work toward something together that the players believe in. Now, 4-4 is not the time to be tough as a head coach in Green Bay and Chicago. Instead, win back the players at all costs, because it’s obvious from their performance on the field that they aren’t buying it right now.
Former Redskins coach Joe Gibbs was great at this. A losing streak? A poor performance? He met with the team’s veterans, asked questions and tried to find out if the players had adjustment ideas that needed to be addressed. He was open to the players, and that’s why they always bought into what he said and what he taught on the field.
We have to understand that there are always ways to improve the game plan for Sundays, but in the case of the Packers and the Bears, that game plan won’t work unless the players are on the train with the coaches.
And right now, their play tells me that they aren’t fully on board anymore.
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Wouldn't be sad if Lovie got the hook after the season. I know he took the Bears to a Super Bowl, but they have been below average since and the Tampa 2 isn't getting it done anymore.
I can see Lovie getting his team to wild card weekend but no chance with McCarthy. The way they came out against Minny and the way they laid down against the Bucs in the second half should tell us the story. They are done.
Sorry, but McCarthy and TT need to go together. I wouldn't want to play for him.
Hmmm...Sean Payton or Mike McCarthy? That was a tough decision. Looks like New Orleans made the right one.
I agree on Lovie, Matt. No way the McCaskey's fire him and are forced to pay out his deal. Way too cheap for that.
Injuries on D have killed us, but even then, no one should give up 45 points to the Bengals. This is all on Lovie and it is his job to turn it around.
Win this week and we are still alive, lose and it is time for the Bull and Blackhawk.
Good perspective Matt. But do you really think that if McCarthy pulls the verterans aside to ask them what adjustments the team needs to make that he'd be focused on nothing other than their pad levels? He just seems to be drowning in his attempts to hold anyone accountable at this point. The Jolly headbut against the Vikings that wiped out an important defensive stop all but confirmed the notion that the Packers are a poorly coached and undisciplined team. Sometimes a team's fortunes can rest on one or two plays during the season. Aggressiveness is one thing, stupidity is another. Green Bay plays dumb, predictable football. Right now it's not only tough being a Packers fan, but it's embarrassing as well. And no, I'm not one of those fans who wishes for Favre to be back, he had to go. When are they going to release the 2010 schedule?
As much as it scares me to think it as I am a Viking fan - IMO the Pack have a chance to turn this season around with the solid players they have - not great but solid. I really believe their current coaching and management convinced them they are a great team which led not to confidence but to an early season arrogance from both the Packers and even some of their fans. Whereas great coaching and great management will have players continually challenging themselves to get better the Packers' current coaching and management had their players believing they were already at the top. Reality in the form of the humbling losses to the Vikings and the Bucs has shown otherwise and now will either cause the players to rechallenge themselves or to pack it in for the year as per Matt's comments above. It's a fine line both winning teams and teams on the cusp of winning have to be concerned about. It's my hope that Dallas comes in and wins another one at Lambeau this week but it wouldn't surprise me if the Pack comes back. If they do come back it will be because of the recognition by their leadership players as their coaching and managment seem to be in over their heads.
While it may be true McCarthy isn't going anywhere and will coach next year, it's too bad if that's the case. Since 2006 (regular season only) he is 21-5 against teams that finish the year below .500 and only 10-20 against those that finish .500 or better (assumes 09 teams finish as they currently are). That just isn't getting it done if you expect to contend and advance in the playoffs. You are likely right that it has to do with being outcoached, unprepared, and slow to adjust. For Green Bay's sake they should make the change...
GB should be doing much better. But sloppy and undisciplined play is on the coaches. It is up to them to get the team prepared, and McCarthy and his staff doesn't do that. GB scores more than enough points to win (haven't scored less than 21 in a game this year) but the DEF, just like last year, can't hold a lead. While both TT and MM clearly need to go, it would be too expensive to fire both. For the sake of GB fans I hipe its TT that gets the axe. 1 winning season in the last 4, and now it looks like 5 season is not a good GM....
Great article Matt. This insight is why I will continue to pick up what you're puttin' down.
It wasn't that they lost to the Vikings, it was HOW it happened. They came out 100% unprepared and unmotivated. McCarthy could be fired just for that one, and it wouldn't be unjust. Then they crap the bed against the Bucs...
Crossroads? At the very least!
Matt - agree 100% with your article but I would also note that in the case of the Packers, the problems they are having for the most part can be dealt with through adjustments. You can increase the blitzing and adjust coverages to generate more pass rush, you can use screens and slants to cover up for poor line play, etc. In Chicago's case, I don't know that they have a lot of options with the issues they're having.
That having been said, if McCarthy is anything more than a mediocre coach, why has it come to this? Any idiot can take nothing more than a quick glance at their stats and see where the major offensive issues are without watching a play (and if they watch, they will see the same problems the stats show):
1 - Not running the ball enough for the type of scheme and backs in use (ZBS and Grant are both always more effective the more they are used)
2 - Not enough passes to RBs (in any normal WCO, backs will typically account for 25-35% of receptions, in GB they account for only 10%)
3 - Not enough short passes (deep threats will obviously have a higher avg per reception but when every receiver, including both receiving TEs, is averaging 14.6yds or more, you're throwing too many long balls and you're running your receivers too deep on a consistent basis).
If McCarthy gets back to basic WCO, this team turns it around. If he doesn't, they're toast. It really is that simple. Even with all the long balls and some special teams and defensive struggles, GB still has a +10 T/O ratio and is maintaining an advantage in TOP. They're ranked 10th in rushing and are literally doing it on accident (Rodgers running for his life is nearly 25% of our rushing) even though Grant is running quite well and Green has shown some power. And if the offense gets to clicking, the defense can start playing downhill.
davidj, they are the most undisciplined team in the league by far. Lead the league in penalties two years in a row...never win the big games
mark my words: mccarthy will go 9-7 and get fired....and BILL COWHER will take over.
btw, packer fan for life!
BRING PRO FOOTBALL BACK TO GREEN BAY
The Packers cannot be at a crossroads as that would mean the bus is moving down a road. The franchise slid into the ditch when they hired TT and MM, and they remain stuck in that ditch. I hate to start over, but they both need to go. And the replacement should not be somebody who was part of the Packer organization in the past. Their well has zero football competence in it. They have to go outside. Far outside.
McCarthy might not be making the mistakes on the field but the Packers haven't been prepared for an opponent all season long. I am talking from snap 1.
THAT"S on the coach.
"We'll work on pad level and get it cleaned up this week" might work IF you actually did that. They haven't. Can someone PLEASE tell me anything that the Packers have seen as a glaring need, addressed it and it's actually fixed? Can't say the defense because this year - they've gotten fat on bad teams and they did blow that lead to a Bucs team with a rookie QB in his first action. No way that should EVER happen when you are talking about how many first round picks we have on that defense...
We waited too long on Sherman (guy couldn't draft but was only marginally worse than Thompson) and we can't make that mistake again.
Can the scouting department and then Thompson and McCarthy because they've managed to do something that hasn't happened in a long time. They went from disappointing fans to making them angry. It's time.....
The Packers season has left the station. They are an average team and will finish 6-10 again. There is no leadership from the the top down. There is no face for the franchise. There is no swagger. They look like a bunch of guys collecting paychecks.
Mismanagement of the team has lead to this pathetic excuse of an NFL team( Favre's a punk ). To continueously be rebuilding for 5 years will lead to the outcome we are seeing now. They have done nothing to improve this team during their tenure. This is sad for a once proud franchise. The Thompson/McCarthy error is reminiscent of the teams of the 70s and 80s. Thompson and McCarthy need to go after the season regardless of the price.
Good points Matt, and more from Andy. Another important factor is McCarthy's apparent allergy to the run game. Take a look at the latter parts of the Tampa game- Green and Grant were averaging something like 5 yards a carry and the Pack had a lead yet he's still having Rodgers chuck it around. It's not like AR was having his greatest game or anything, there was a huge wind and Tampa's run D is terrible to boot. If they would've just kept running it the game could've been a whole lot different.
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Nov 10, 2009
08:15 AM
now i understand why this is called the player's page. mccarthy is not the one missing tackles, dropping passes, jumping off sides, giving up sacks, holding the ball forever or holding on kick offs -- that would be on the players. these guys make a ton of money to execute fundamentals that are taught since grade school. sometimes the players are just not very good, and with the packers, that's part of the mix for certain. good teams generally have good players -- the cowboys won a super bowl with barry switzer.....