Modified overtime proposal may not have the votes

ORLANDO, Fla.-- As the NFL owners gather at the Ritz-Carlton for the annual league meetings, this posh venue is the backdrop for significant labor strife between management and the players’ union.

The approaching storm clouds of a potential lockout in 2011 are looming, and negotiating strategies figure to dominate owners' conversation over the next three days.

However, that’s not the only business that’s being conducted.

The NFL competition committee has recommended a proposal to modify the overtime format that would apply strictly to the playoffs by a 6-2 margin with Baltimore Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome and Cincinnati Bengals coach Marvin Lewis voting against the measure.

According to league sources, the measure is facing an uphill battle and may not currently have the necessary 24 of 32 votes to be voted in as a new rule on Wednesday.

New York Jets owner Woody Johnson has said he's likely to vote against the proposal. So has Bengals owner Mike Brown.

And New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and Indianapolis Colts team president Bill Polian have said they're in favor of it.

Presumably, so are the Minnesota Vikings.

Instead of the sudden-death system that’s currently in place where the first score decides the outcome, a playoff game wouldn’t conclude unless the team that wins the coin toss scores a touchdown on the first possession.

A field goal scored on the first series would allow the team that lost the toss to get a subsequent possession and a chance to tie the game. A failure to score on that second possession would end the game.

If both teams connect on field goals, then it goes back to the existing sudden-death rules.

And if the team that wins the coin toss doesn’t score on the initial possession, then the overtime would be conducted the way it always has with the other team able to win the game on a field goal.

What’s the impetus for this possible change?

The Vikings’ overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints in the NFC title game has provided a lot of motivation.

The NFL brass are concerned about the possibility of a Super Bowl being decided by a field goal.

"I would say this is something that's been on our radar for a number of years and been talked about a lot," said Atlanta Falcons team president Rich McKay, the co-chair of the competition committee, during a national conference call. "In the last four or five years, we have not proposed anything because we thought if there weren't enough votes, we should not propose it. This year, the statistics are so compelling we need to get the discussion going."

Plus, winning the coin toss has traditionally determined the winner.

During all overtime regular-season games from 1975 to 1994, the team that won the coin toss wins the game 46.8 percent of the time.

Between 1994 and 2009, the coin toss winner wins the game 59.8 percent of the time with the coin toss loser winning just 38.5 percent of the time.

There have only been four regular-season ties, 1.6 percent, from 1994 to 2009.

"When sudden death was put in, in 1974, it clearly worked very well,” McKay said. “It was a good system. No. 1, it had excitement. No. 2, it broke ties. Changes occurred over time. Now the numbers have changed pretty dramatically."

With the improvement of field goal accuracy over the years, the game has been determined by a field goal 26.2 percent of the time. That’s up 17.9 percent over the past 15 years.

It’s unclear if there’s enough momentum being generated to pass the measure, but the competition committee seems to have some support around the league.

Nonetheless, NFL owners are traditionally resistant to change.

"I would say to you that there are advocates who will say that we're trying to put in a system that emphasizes more skill and more strategy in overtime as opposed to the randomness of the coin flip," McKay said. "Those on the other side will tell you overtime works pretty well, it's exciting, and there's an opportunity for less plays, and that is an important product that's needed in overtime.

"I can't say that I have any sense for the votes. This doesn't mean that, as a committee, we shouldn't try to bring this or other issues up. But I don't really sense what the vote would be."

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