Pregame Notes: Bears-Niners

Let’s take a look at the first Thursday night matchup of the 2009 season, check out some game notes and make a quick prediction.

Chicago (4-4) at San Francisco (3-5)

Current Line: Niners –3 ½

Game Notes

* Where are the turnovers for Lovie Smith’s defense? Outside of the Cleveland game—where they caused five turnovers—this Bears defense hasn’t been able to get their hands on the football consistently. A key aspect to the Tampa 2 scheme at this level is creating turnovers by defenders dropping to a landmark and driving hard downhill on the football. Chicago needs to get a solid rush from their front four tonight and force Niners QB Alex Smith to throw the ball into tight windows—where their linebackers and defensive backs can break on the throw.

* What will we see from the Niners’ Smith tonight? Since he came back onto the scene in San Fran’s loss to Houston, this offense has become more creative and the playbook has expanded with the arrival of rookie WR Michael Crabtree. But, at times, the Niners have gotten away from what wins for this ball club—and that is a ball control offense predicated on the production of RB Frank Gore. Smith has thrown five picks this season, with three coming last week at home to the Titans. Opening up the playbook looks nice during the week of practice, but the Niners can’t be enamored with throwing the ball downfield against this Bears defense. Force Chicago to bring an eighth defender in the box, and then take some calculated chances down the field when Smith sees man coverage.

* The Bears must find a way stay in this game early tonight. In their losses to Cincy and ‘Zona, Chicago was forced to abandon the running game and move to a quick-strike offense behind QB Jay Cutler to get back in the game. Chicago needs to work the ball methodically down the field tonight, use some clock and put together drives that are led by RB Matt Forte. Yes, the Bears’ offensive line has struggled, but establishing a ball- control offense will lead to big plays for Cutler and allow offensive coordinator Ron Turner to call a game that has options.

* For the Niners, use TE Vernon Davis when the Bears show their Cover 2 looks. If you watched the Niners-Vikings matchup earlier this season, Davis was able to catch balls down the field when the Vikings dropped seven in the Tampa 2 scheme—beating the Mike Backer down the seam and splitting the safeties. This is the weakness of the Cover 2 defense, but it takes a TE who is a vertical threat to win—and San Fran has that in Davis.

* How often do the Bears use their pressure packages tonight? CB Charles Tillman was exposed by Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald last week when the Bears brought pressure, and with an already banged-up secondary, does Chicago have the safeties that can provide help and get from the middle of the field to the sideline? Isaac Bruce isn’t going to run past anyone on the Bears roster, but Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan can.

* In a short week, special teams can have a major impact because the practice time is cut in half. Offense and defense can rely on what they have done up until this point, but the special teams units have their film study cut in half as well as their on-the-field practice time working against the opposing teams’ return units. I would not be surprised to see a big return turn the course of this game.

* The desperation factor is alive for both teams. As poorly as both Chicago and San Fran have played as of late, they are still in the middle of the hunt for a wild-card spot come January. NFL teams can get hot at any given moment, and a win tonight will enable a run to start for the winner. Teams with their backs against the wall in this league usually play their best football.

Prediction

I don’t like the matchup of the Bears’ front seven on defense against the Niners’ offensive line and Frank Gore, and because of that I expect Gore to have a productive night running the ball. But Alex Smith is too mistake prone for me right now in the passing game. Gore gets his numbers, but the Bears get a play in the kicking game and finally get their hands on the football, forcing a couple of turnovers to hold off the Niners late in the fourth quarter.

Bears 23 Niners 17

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