Preseason coaching carousel: AFC

NFL coaches are returning from Fourth of July vacations, possibly the one true week off they get. They spent their time at water parks, family picnics and other such gatherings that we take for granted, trying to remember the names of their own children. And now it’s back to the task of getting ready for training camp openings.

I hope coaches get a chance to rest and enjoy their families and don’t rush too quickly back to work, but you know some never turned the projector or, more accurately, the computer off. Such is the intense pressure of coaching or leading an NFL franchise today. It’s a billion-dollar business, and coaches command million-dollar salaries, so in an era of 9.5-percent unemployment, nobody wants anyone else to lose their job. But this is the NFL; we know somebody will, sooner or later.

APA championship didn't save Gruden.

So let’s take a moment or two to handicap who’s on a hot seat and who has a short leash or lacks a clear mandate. Any coach with fewer than three years remaining on his contract is almost, by definition, in jeopardy, but even big money remaining on deals and Lombardi Trophies on the shelf didn’t keep Mike Shanahan or Jon Gruden in place.

Let’s look division by division at who may have reason to be renting rather than buying and making sure their contracts are in effect. We’ll start with the AFC and conclude next week with the NFC.

No Such Thing as a Safe Job

APDungy left on his own terms. A rarity.

There is no longer such a thing as a safe job. Even first-year coaches have reasons to worry, and with Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher and Tony Dungy joining Shanahan and Gruden out of football and available to coach in the right situation, there are plenty of proven winners out there.

There aren’t that many coaches in win-or-else situations, especially in a league that fires 30 percent of its coaches in any given year. But there are a few coaches in something close to win-or-else. Others are in transitional stages where changes in their franchises, perhaps beyond their control, affect their destiny. Still others just don’t know where they stand with ownership and therefore lack a clear ability to do things.

AFC EAST

Hot Seat: Dick Jauron, Bills

No winning seasons and no playoff appearances in three years put Jauron in a win-or-go-home situation. An owner in his 90s and a small market add extra pressure to come through now. The addition of Terrell Owens is a perilous one.

Shifting Sands: Tony Sparano, Dolphins

Sparano caught lightening in a bottle in his first year in Miami. It will be difficult for him to do better in his second season, sneaking up on nobody, and he works for an impatient boss in Bill Parcells and a new, untested owner in Steve Ross.

APRex Ryan

In Transition: Rex Ryan, Jets

Owner Woody Johnson fell in love with Ryan. Johnson does that. It means Ryan enjoys some protection and GM Mike Tannebaum might be exposed if someone has to take a fall. Tannebaum has been Johnson’s football sensei, and if Johnson were to move on him, it would leave the organization without a football voice at the top. Ryan, while he is Johnson’s current man-crush, faces one other big challenge: the pervasive and potentially antagonistic New York media. Ryan will talk and may inspire his players, but his life will be easier if he starts strongly.

Fort Knox: Bill Belichick, Patriots

It will be his first season without both his first- and second-generation protégés, Scott Pioli and Josh McDaniels, respectively, so there could be some hiccups in transition. But Belichick is safe unless he fires himself to coach lacrosse at a prep school.

AFC North

APUnpredictable management could doom Lewis.

Hot Seat: Marvin Lewis, Bengals

Dysfunction and injuries have undermined Lewis’ promising start. Now he’s in a likely must-win situation. However, the Brown family is unpredictable, and having to coach the Bengals another year might be a worse punishment if Lewis doesn’t turn things around. Look for an overhaul if he doesn’t come close to the postseason.

In Transition: Eric Mangini, Browns

Mangini got the keys to the kingdom after being fired by the Jets. He has a team that has underachieved, an owner who has been far too impatient and listens to too many people and he has yet to find his own voice as a coach.

Safe: Mike Tomlin, Steelers

Super Bowl win in his second season combined with working for an organization that has had only four head coaches in 40 years makes Tomlin beyond safe.

Pretty Darn Safe: John Harbaugh, Ravens

Can you have too much success too soon? The Ravens enter Harbaugh’s sophomore campaign with high expectations. Unlike Tony Sparano in Miami, he has a much more patient organization and owner behind him.

AFC South

Hot Seat: Gary Kubiak, Texans

Kubiak sacrificed assistants in the offseason to hang on to his job. It’s playoffs or bust for him in 2009.

Warm Seat: Jack Del Rio, Jaguars

Del Rio’s team may miss its window and owner Wayne Weaver would like to sell, so no security for Del Rio. He may look for his freedom before the ax falls.

APJim Caldwell and Peyton Manning

Limited Mandate: Jim Caldwell, Colts

Caldwell was a designated head coach in waiting, but he ascends to the top job vacated by his mentor, Tony Dungy. Apart from the uniform color scheme, he might not recognize much else in Indy. Coaching changes, the release of Marvin Harrison and alterations to the defense make this a challenging situation, especially with sands passing through the hour glass of Peyton Manning’s career.

Should Be Safe: Jeff Fisher, Titans

Just being the NFL’s longest tenured head coach in a league where being below .500 is the norm puts a bit of a target on Fisher, who lacks a Lombardi Trophy. Should he be fired? Of course not. But stranger things have happened in the NFL, especially if his team doesn’t live up to expectations. He could also be someone who shops himself if things don’t workout.

AFC West

Hot Seat: Tom Cable, Raiders

He works for Al Davis, which means he enjoys a complete mandate until Davis can draft Cable’s letter of resignation for him. The main problem for Cable is that success with Davis isn’t so much about what you do, but how you do it.

In Transition: Norv Turner, Chargers

A team with high expectations that needs some retooling makes things a bit hotter for Turner, whose chief qualification in the first place was his familiarity with personnel and scheme for this on-the-cusp franchise. If either changes, what is Turner’s rationale for continuing? GM A.J. Smith’s grasp on personnel makes him the more valuable of the pair.

APJosh McDaniels and Darrell Reid

A Tale of Two Rookies: Josh McDaniels, Broncos, and Todd Haley, Chiefs

Being a first-year coach is not a guarantee of job security. Remember Cam Cameron in Miami. McDaniels may have gotten a strange break when Jay Cutler shot his way out of town, making expectations manageable. Haley was something of a curious choice, and while he has a personal relationship with GM Scott Pioli and modest expectations, Haley must show he is a head coach and not just a guy who yelled back at Anquan Boldin.

Next: NFC coaches.

Comments

Add a Comment