The concept has a ripple effect, but it’s probably coming. Jack Bechta
Last week, I asked one of my clients how he felt about playing an 18-game regular season. The answer he gave me was more than a simple yes or no. My client, who’s been with me for seven years, gave me a laundry list of things he would want before agreeing. It got me thinking about the ripple effect and wholesale changes that would come with playing 18 games.
Before forming my own opinion, I asked more players, coaches, GMs and even the commissioner for their thoughts. The more I delved into the subject, the more questions I found that needed answering. Moving to a longer season would have a serious impact on the current infrastructure, including offseason workouts, OTAs (organized team activities), mini-camps, player evaluations(particularly rookies), player compensation, scheduling, practice schedules, roster sizes, practice squad size, injured reserved terms and even training methods.
The assumption is that we would lose two preseason games and get the regular season started two weeks earlier. Of course, as an agent, my concern is for the players, but I wanted to hear from everyone who would be affected by the change. Here’s what I learned:
PLAYERS
I spoke to 10 veteran players and one rookie. My veteran clients had similar responses, including this one: ”As long as we’re paid for the games, I’m OK with it.” Along with additional compensation, players want to be assured that there will be less wear and tear on their bodies during camp. By the 12th game of the regular season, everyone is beat up and nursing some type of lingering injury. So the prospect of adding two games and taxing the NFL body that much definitely have some risk. However, if camp is two weeks shorter, the consensus was that players will welcome the change.
APTwo more games would ultimately lead to more injuries.
On the specifics of compensation, it was unanimous that players would look to be additionally compensated for the games at a proration of their contracts. For example, if a player is making a base salary of $1.6 million ($100,000 per game) for a 16-game season, with one off week, he would expect to make $1.8 million for an 18-game season with one off week. One player felt he should be compensated 110-120 percent of his weekly game check for the two additional games. Four players brought up the idea of having an additional off week.
If the players are compensated and given a shorter, less physical camp, and their bodies are managed with more consideration to the longer season, I believe they will sign off on the proposal.
General Managers
The first AFC West general manager I called had a strong opinion. He said, “Jack, I hate the f-----g idea! We would have to go back to the drawing board and redesign everything we do. Player evaluations will be more challenging, we’ll have more injuries, and the quality of the product will suffer in the first few weeks of the season.” He also said, “We’re holding our breath as it is that we can get out of a camp with healthy players and reach the playoffs with a healthy team.” There’s a very fine balance in getting players repped, calloused and rested for the start of the season. Losing two preseason games would put a strain on players’ bodies and their ability to learn. He added that a team is lucky when it can get to the postseason healthy. The two extra games could have a huge impact on postseason play.
Of the four GMs I spoke to, three hated the idea and brought up many similar concerns. The biggest change for GMs would be the way they evaluate younger players in the preseason. They would have to depend on their coaches to get their teams ready while simultaneously playing rookies more in the preseason. One GM said he would consider more weekly scrimmages with other teams.
More specifics from GMs: Expand game-day rosters and practice squads. Shorten the time players can go on the IR list with an opportunity to get them back during the season. Currently, when a player is placed on IR, he is prohibited from playing the rest of that season. One GM suggested it should be about nine weeks long. Another GM wanted more mini-camps to increase his ability to evaluate and prepare players.
One AFC Central GM was more subjective. He said the change would simply give more value to the fans, and we should embrace the change if it happens and make the necessary adjustments.
Head Coaches
APHow would coaches handle training camp with an expanded regular season?
Of the three head coaches I spoke to, two were adamantly against the idea and one said it didn’t make much difference. However, all agreed that a change to an 18-game season would affect them the most. They would have to start over how they prepare for a season, how they work with their young players and how they get their teams ready with a shorter preseason.
One AFC West coach welcomed the idea and said it would be a good reason to cut back on a lot of unnecessary things they do. He thinks OTAs should be trimmed from 14 to 11 days. He doesn’t play vets much anyway and would cut back on their preseason game reps and give the No. 2s and 3s more playing time. He, like the other coaches, also wanted expanded rosters (53 on game days, 58 total), bigger practice squads (about 10) and more flexible IR terms. The problem with this, I’ve heard, is that owners don’t want bigger rosters.
The Commish
APNFL commissioner Roger Goodell
I decided to get Roger Goodell’s quick take on an 18-game season and see if he really has thought through all the components that would need changing or adjusting. I wanted to see if this was a passing subject or an inevitable change. He told me that he’s been evaluating and exploring the idea for about a year and realizes he and the NFL would need sufficient time to prepare for modifications to the current system. They’ve been talking with coaches and GMs about this for a while now, and he’s also interested in the players’ perspective. He’s keeping an open mind and seems to be in the exploratory phase of this matter. However, I don’t know if he and new union chief DeMaurice Smith have tabled the subject for serious discussion.
Goodell also made it clear to me that the preseason game “stinks” as a product for fans and partners of the NFL. He’s interested in giving fans more value for their money. My sense is that he wants to see an 18-game season, eliminate two preseason games and also use the change to improve certain components of the system.
I’ve known Roger for many years, and an observation I can share is that he consistently looks at the game and all its elements through the eyes of the fans. He’s a fan’s commissioner.
MY TWO CENTS
I’m all for an 18=game season as long as:
Players are fairly compensated.
Fans get a clean exchange for their current two preseason games.
Players’ bodies are better managed on the front end of camp and during the season.
There are expanded rosters and practice squads.
There are more flexible injured reserve rules.
The start of voluntary offseason training is pushed back until April 15 or later.
OTAs are cut back.
Rookies are allowed to report to camp one week earlier than vets.
As an agent, I’m in tune with the strain that playing in the NFL puts on my clients’ bodies. These guys are hurting pretty bad down the stretch, and two more games can push their bodies beyond their limits. Unless, of course, more restrictions can be put in place on how their bodies are managed in the offseason and during camp. Most NFL coaches do a good job during the season managing players’ health. However, some players never fully recover from a tough camp.
I worry about LaDainian Tomlinson and other running backs getting 30 to 50 more pounding carries, QBs taking 10 extra hits over the last two games and linebackers having 20 more violent collisions. Two more games will have an impact on player health if the management of the preseason isn’t handled with extra care.
I also worry about the late rounders and undrafted free agents who may not get the reps they need in the preseason to get fairly evaluated or even scouted by other clubs.
I have a concern that clubs with new GMs and new head coaches will be at a big disadvantage putting in new systems and evaluating new faces. As a result, bad teams may stay bad even longer without proper preparation time in the preseason. This could be a negative for those teams’ fans and first-year head coaches – and a plus for teams like the Steelers and Patriots that have successful systems in place.
One GM I spoke to who absolutely hated the idea said, “The 18-game season is inevitable. We will all toe the company line and make the necessary changes to adjust.” And I agree. It’s coming.
I want to hear from fans. What are your thoughts on an 18-game season?
Jack,
I would love to see an 18 game season with two bye weeks for each team. I agree with all of your additions excluding the cutting back of OTAs, the rookies coming in early to TC and I think the IR rules shouldn;t be changed, maybe the PUP but not IR.
OTAs are voluntary and I think really help not only the rookies but players trying to make position changes, vets fighting for roster spots, and new coaches who are assessing talent and installing their playbook. Also moving them past April 15th is a bad idea. They are in perfect position as it is, I see no founded reason to move them.
Now, if the rookies are asked to come in early several things happen. They gain an edge on vets they are trying to beat out, because of this this free week would become voluntary for vets. This results in pressure for everyone who is not a solid starter to be there to fight for their roster spot. If you have a rookie week it will be open to vets and they will be pressured to be there so it is not much different than just having a longer TC for all but the elite players.
Also, as far as the IR rule are concerned I think they can make the necessary changes with modifications to the PUP list. With larger rosters IR becomes less of a concern and if teams gain to much room to stash players then players who get lightly injured and would normally be cut, and therefore have a chance to make other teams, would instead be stashed away and forced onto the bench when it is not necessary. A good example is a rookie who gets slightly injured on a team with a lot of depth. A team will want to hold on to its draft pick but what if they are saying the injury is more severe that it is. The rookie would then be forced to ride pine until, healthy, until someone else goes down. The IR is a hard thing to put players on and it needs to stay that way to protect the players. With an extended season I would like to see a 4 week PUP list and a 8 week PUP list. I think this should allow enough player management for the coaches to survive.
I think that an additional bye week for each team would be the biggest addition and good for all parties involved. Not only do the players get another week off late in the stretch but the NFL gets another week added to the broadcasting contracts which means more money for the owners even if some goes to the players. This helps make up for the larger rosters and should work well for all parties involved, fans included. 20 week regular season, 27 weeks of football, I think I would be in heaven.
I'm not quite sure what I would be getting out of an 18-game season that I don't already get out of a 16-game season, apart from two more chances to blow a playoff spot, tear Westbrook's ACL, and line owners pockets with some more revenue.
As you said, it isn't as simple as converting two preseason games into regular season games - there's a lot in sync right now that would need an enormous facelift in order to keep the game itself on track.
I'm not wholly against the idea, but it really should be up to the players and yes they should be fairly compensated. It seems there's always an extracurricular scapegoat for injuries: World Baseball Classic (Dice-K), preseason games (Portis), Olympics (Manu). These typically happen because the body is already so taxed from everything it has already endured - substituting two extra full contact regular season games in addition to the revamped OTA schedule, rookie camps, etc etc is only going to increase injuries and roster spots.
Who knows? By the time February rolls around, the NFC Champs could be starting Keanu Reeves under center with a sumo wrestler for a left tackle, but not because of a strike this time.
Well, as a greedy NFL fan I would never complain about more football, but it certainly changes the dynamics of everything else as you alluded to.
Also, from the perspective of a numbers guy, specifically as one who enjoys statistical debates, changing the length of a season throws a wrench into those debates. Now there's a third tier in debating career statistics, 14 vs. 16 vs. 18 game seasons, and the whole nine yards. Sixteen games feels right to me, but I don't think what I think matters. It's coming whether we like it or not.
Even with all these conditions, the quality of play will suffer early in the season. As a fan I don't want the game to be watered down with less talent and more depth. The NFL game is so difficult that teams are already alternating RB's and D-lineman.
That being said, the current system does not favor the fan paying for preseason games. The NFL must continue to open up revenue streams for teams (like ads on practice jerseys) and lower prices on preseason games.
It's natural for agents and players first reaction to be "As long as we get more money", without considering the long-term repercussions. Players careers will be shortened and teams will be more hesitant to give long contracts. I just don't see how less training time will prevent injuries and wear-and-tear.
Good read Jack, Thanks.
I thought everyone you talked to, made excellent points.
The one issue I think the NFLPA should stand absolutely firm on, (other than more pay, that should go without saying) is the expanded rosters. I personally think their too small now, with a 16 game season. But I too, like you, know the owners will balk at any expansion talk, especially if it's a significant number. Which it would need to be, if it's going to alleviate some of the wear and tear on players bodies.
Again good stuff Jack!
The one thing I still don't see anyone commenting on is the playoffs. Once we extend the schedule to 18 games it is a foregone conclusion that the owners are going to want to expand the playoffs to allow more teams in.
Right now whenever a team wins 11 games and doesn't get in there's always an outcry.
Just imagine what's going to happen if they move to an 18 game schedule. The propensity for 11 and 12 win seasons are going to increase.
Before you know it the NFL playoffs will be similar to MLB's and the NBA's.
I think I like the idea of a 17th game on a neutral site more than I like the idea of two 18 game seasons. I feel that this would allow more fans to have access to the NFL in games that matter and would eliminate teams giving up home games in order to play a game in London or Tokyo.
I also believe that players should benefit more than just a proportional per game increase. Not only are they playing two extra games, but they are giving up time off. Also, I'd like to see a bye week between the pre-season and the regular season in order to give them a chance to recover from the beating that they've taken.
Dan - Trying to compare statistics from the three different eras would be no more difficult than comparing them now. This isn't baseball, where it is the same game played from era to era. Heck, its even difficult to compare players that play in the same era under different schemes. Did Kurt Warner throw all of those TDs in St Louis because he was such a good QB or did he throw them because he was part of the Greatest Show on Turf? It's hard to say, because after a year or two of seeing that offense, defenses learned to adapt.
The other thing that irks me about this whole debate is that one of the reasons the NFL didn't want to change the OT rules is because the increased chance of injury and yet here they are seriously considering extending the season two more games!
I think the players will love the idea if there are two more paychecks, because there will be some serious concerns from the guys over how two more games a year can shorten their overall careers...
Even with all these conditions, the quality of play will suffer early in the season. As a fan I don't want the game to be watered down with less talent and more depth. The NFL game is so difficult that teams are already alternating RB's and D-lineman.
That being said, the current system does not favor the fan paying for preseason games. The NFL must continue to open up revenue streams for teams (like ads on practice jerseys) and lower prices on preseason games.
It's natural for agents and players first reaction to be "As long as we get more money", without considering the long-term repercussions. Players careers will be shortened and teams will be more hesitant to give long contracts. I just don't see how less training time will prevent injuries and wear-and-tear.
How will an expanded season relate to what other teams are played? Perhaps a restructuring of who plays who should go along with a jump to 18 games. One option is to have each team play all the other teams in its conference plus those in its own division twice, and not playing teams from the other conference. This imposes a definite uniformity on each conference while keeping divisional rivalries intact, and the Super Bowl can now be said to be a true contest between conference champions.
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Jun 23, 2009
01:34 PM
I'd add these two to the list:
- TWO bye weeks each season.
- Players are mandated to wear concussion-resistant helmets.