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Pros & cons of an 18-game season

The concept has a ripple effect, but it’s probably coming. Jack Bechta

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Last week, I asked one of my clients how he felt about playing an 18-game regular season. The answer he gave me was more than a simple yes or no. My client, who’s been with me for seven years, gave me a laundry list of things he would want before agreeing. It got me thinking about the ripple effect and wholesale changes that would come with playing 18 games.

Before forming my own opinion, I asked more players, coaches, GMs and even the commissioner for their thoughts. The more I delved into the subject, the more questions I found that needed answering. Moving to a longer season would have a serious impact on the current infrastructure, including offseason workouts, OTAs (organized team activities), mini-camps, player evaluations(particularly rookies), player compensation, scheduling, practice schedules, roster sizes, practice squad size, injured reserved terms and even training methods.

The assumption is that we would lose two preseason games and get the regular season started two weeks earlier. Of course, as an agent, my concern is for the players, but I wanted to hear from everyone who would be affected by the change. Here’s what I learned:

PLAYERS

I spoke to 10 veteran players and one rookie. My veteran clients had similar responses, including this one: ”As long as we’re paid for the games, I’m OK with it.” Along with additional compensation, players want to be assured that there will be less wear and tear on their bodies during camp. By the 12th game of the regular season, everyone is beat up and nursing some type of lingering injury. So the prospect of adding two games and taxing the NFL body that much definitely have some risk. However, if camp is two weeks shorter, the consensus was that players will welcome the change.

Tom BradyAPTwo more games would ultimately lead to more injuries.

On the specifics of compensation, it was unanimous that players would look to be additionally compensated for the games at a proration of their contracts. For example, if a player is making a base salary of $1.6 million ($100,000 per game) for a 16-game season, with one off week, he would expect to make $1.8 million for an 18-game season with one off week. One player felt he should be compensated 110-120 percent of his weekly game check for the two additional games. Four players brought up the idea of having an additional off week.

If the players are compensated and given a shorter, less physical camp, and their bodies are managed with more consideration to the longer season, I believe they will sign off on the proposal.

General Managers

The first AFC West general manager I called had a strong opinion. He said, “Jack, I hate the f-----g idea! We would have to go back to the drawing board and redesign everything we do. Player evaluations will be more challenging, we’ll have more injuries, and the quality of the product will suffer in the first few weeks of the season.” He also said, “We’re holding our breath as it is that we can get out of a camp with healthy players and reach the playoffs with a healthy team.” There’s a very fine balance in getting players repped, calloused and rested for the start of the season. Losing two preseason games would put a strain on players’ bodies and their ability to learn. He added that a team is lucky when it can get to the postseason healthy. The two extra games could have a huge impact on postseason play.

Of the four GMs I spoke to, three hated the idea and brought up many similar concerns. The biggest change for GMs would be the way they evaluate younger players in the preseason. They would have to depend on their coaches to get their teams ready while simultaneously playing rookies more in the preseason. One GM said he would consider more weekly scrimmages with other teams.

More specifics from GMs: Expand game-day rosters and practice squads. Shorten the time players can go on the IR list with an opportunity to get them back during the season. Currently, when a player is placed on IR, he is prohibited from playing the rest of that season. One GM suggested it should be about nine weeks long. Another GM wanted more mini-camps to increase his ability to evaluate and prepare players.

One AFC Central GM was more subjective. He said the change would simply give more value to the fans, and we should embrace the change if it happens and make the necessary adjustments.

Head Coaches

Philadelphia EaglesAPHow would coaches handle training camp with an expanded regular season?

Of the three head coaches I spoke to, two were adamantly against the idea and one said it didn’t make much difference. However, all agreed that a change to an 18-game season would affect them the most. They would have to start over how they prepare for a season, how they work with their young players and how they get their teams ready with a shorter preseason.

One AFC West coach welcomed the idea and said it would be a good reason to cut back on a lot of unnecessary things they do. He thinks OTAs should be trimmed from 14 to 11 days. He doesn’t play vets much anyway and would cut back on their preseason game reps and give the No. 2s and 3s more playing time. He, like the other coaches, also wanted expanded rosters (53 on game days, 58 total), bigger practice squads (about 10) and more flexible IR terms. The problem with this, I’ve heard, is that owners don’t want bigger rosters.

The Commish

Roger GoodellAPNFL commissioner Roger Goodell

I decided to get Roger Goodell’s quick take on an 18-game season and see if he really has thought through all the components that would need changing or adjusting. I wanted to see if this was a passing subject or an inevitable change. He told me that he’s been evaluating and exploring the idea for about a year and realizes he and the NFL would need sufficient time to prepare for modifications to the current system. They’ve been talking with coaches and GMs about this for a while now, and he’s also interested in the players’ perspective. He’s keeping an open mind and seems to be in the exploratory phase of this matter. However, I don’t know if he and new union chief DeMaurice Smith have tabled the subject for serious discussion.

Goodell also made it clear to me that the preseason game “stinks” as a product for fans and partners of the NFL. He’s interested in giving fans more value for their money. My sense is that he wants to see an 18-game season, eliminate two preseason games and also use the change to improve certain components of the system.

I’ve known Roger for many years, and an observation I can share is that he consistently looks at the game and all its elements through the eyes of the fans. He’s a fan’s commissioner.

MY TWO CENTS

I’m all for an 18=game season as long as:

Players are fairly compensated.

Fans get a clean exchange for their current two preseason games.

Players’ bodies are better managed on the front end of camp and during the season.

There are expanded rosters and practice squads.

There are more flexible injured reserve rules.

The start of voluntary offseason training is pushed back until April 15 or later.

OTAs are cut back.

Rookies are allowed to report to camp one week earlier than vets.

As an agent, I’m in tune with the strain that playing in the NFL puts on my clients’ bodies. These guys are hurting pretty bad down the stretch, and two more games can push their bodies beyond their limits. Unless, of course, more restrictions can be put in place on how their bodies are managed in the offseason and during camp. Most NFL coaches do a good job during the season managing players’ health. However, some players never fully recover from a tough camp.

I worry about LaDainian Tomlinson and other running backs getting 30 to 50 more pounding carries, QBs taking 10 extra hits over the last two games and linebackers having 20 more violent collisions. Two more games will have an impact on player health if the management of the preseason isn’t handled with extra care.

I also worry about the late rounders and undrafted free agents who may not get the reps they need in the preseason to get fairly evaluated or even scouted by other clubs.

I have a concern that clubs with new GMs and new head coaches will be at a big disadvantage putting in new systems and evaluating new faces. As a result, bad teams may stay bad even longer without proper preparation time in the preseason. This could be a negative for those teams’ fans and first-year head coaches – and a plus for teams like the Steelers and Patriots that have successful systems in place.

One GM I spoke to who absolutely hated the idea said, “The 18-game season is inevitable. We will all toe the company line and make the necessary changes to adjust.” And I agree. It’s coming.

I want to hear from fans. What are your thoughts on an 18-game season?

Comments

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Dan at Marquette University
Jun 23, 2009
04:28 PM

Jayme - I merely meant that it would add another variable into judging a player's career in relation to his peers and generations previous. There's already been enough change in the game in the Super Bowl era to render it nearly impossible, and adding two more games just creates even more necessity to try to used mathematics and manipulation to even the playing field for comparisons.

I think the single greatest change to the game came post-2003 after the Manning vs. New England debacle and the resulting tightening of the rules that have inflated the passing game since then. When it comes to comparing statistically great passing seasons, give me Marino's 1984 season considering the state of the league at that time over Manning's or Brady's record breaking seasons.

Mr.Murder
Jun 23, 2009
05:19 PM

Pros- the dual thousand yard backfield will become a common occurrence. In fact, a necessity. So, the table for that measure of incentive should be reached more often, and the number one spot will see greater rewards for exceeding 1,200 plus yards, etc.

That's Your Basic
Jun 23, 2009
06:34 PM

The theme I think we all keep hitting on is the injury concern, and how it will extrapolate over a career. Going hand in hand with that is also the rehab concern, no?

Brady goes down in Week 1 with the worst injury (arguably, right?) a guy can get, ACL, which instantly starts the clock on the typically mandatory 1 year sit out time. As soon as he's carted off, he's got 52 weeks before his next game, and what, 40 weeks before he's semi-healthy and practicing again? How does the extra two games affect that timetable? Faster rehabilitation = sloppier rehabilitation?

I know these guys have careers to think about, but they also have lives after football to think about too. l

I thought Dan made a great point too, about having to asterisk the different eras, or how a lot of purists will want to regarding the 14-16-18 game seasons. He's right: 16 games feels just fine.

William Williams
Jun 23, 2009
10:39 PM

The consideration of an 18 game schedule sucks and is only based in increasing revenues and expansion into the foreign market...it has NOTHING to do with the fans, or the players. The current system is PERFECT...except for the need to better preserve the players' current and future health. If Goodell wants Euro games, simply indemnify those clubs forced to play for their lost home games. With such a revenue-driven agenda, I fear Goodell will transform the NFL into the NBA, ie., a league that values money over the quality of the sport as a whole. How does that help the fans?

mg
Jun 24, 2009
04:05 AM

I agree with Jack that it has to be an even exchange of preseason games for fans. As a season ticket holder at Lambeau, I'm not thrilled about additional games in January unless it's a playoff game. Just sayin'. However, that plays out to a logistic nightmare at Lambeau Field as well as currently the two preseason games are split between green and gold package holders, where the green package has 6 regular games + 1 preseason, gold package has 2 regular games + 1 preseason. Which package gets the dreaded preseason game and which package gets the additional regular home game?

blx
Jun 24, 2009
04:29 AM

I like the idea of 18 games, however I understand your player perspective but you have no consideration how this affects the teams finances.
This would be negative to the teams if they had to increase players salaries for teams that sell out pre season games at full price (ie Packers). They would not gain any revenue and potentionally lose revenue at the same time increasing player costs. During preseason games in Green Bay, (and probly many other cities), fans who attend pre season games tend to be fans who dont have season tickets, and they tend to spend more money on jerseys etc than fans who have season tickets. By limiting pre season games to possibly only 1 home game, you would be cutting your fans who only have access to pre season tickets. As a season ticket holder myself, it would help me, but it would hurt the potential revenue for the team and limit access to games to those fans who dont have season tickets.
Teams of course who dont sell out preseason games at full price would see an increase in revenue.
I like the idea of the 18 game season, however I think it would hurt the finances for many teams if they have to increase salaries. Im sure this will be addressed in the new CBA.

Great Story

Keith
Jun 24, 2009
09:54 AM

I think the most interesting take on this is from the AFC GM. It's true that it will have a huge impact on strategy on how you evaluate players. It's hard enough to keep McNabb and Westbrook healthy for a 16 game season...I can't imagine what the extra 2 games would lead to.

Geoffrey Benedict
Jun 24, 2009
10:41 AM

I think it is coming, it's a money thing. More games mean more NFL network commercials and bigger TV contracts.

I agree with all of your stipulations, the extra bye week I think is needed, as well as expanding rosters.

The problem will become rookies. Less wrok in the offseason is what Players say they would need, GM's and Coaches need more to evaluate players without those 2 games. If Goodel wants to solve the preseason problem make it illegal for teams to force them onto season ticket packages and let the market decide their worth. If people still pay full value to go, it's their own fault.

I hate the 18 game season idea. I don't think any real football fans want to see more injuries and less preparation, just to get two more weeks of football games. But we will see it, it will be bad for the game, but good for the short term money. And that's what all leagues go for.

jim
Jun 24, 2009
01:52 PM

Fans stop complaining about the pre-season the moment the regular season begins. When is the NFL going to realize that their business is NOT broken. A 16-game schedule played out over 17 weeks fits nicely into the fall season. Adding two more games moves the start of the regular season up into August where attendance will be affected by fan's family vacations. Or it will extend the season well into January where really cold weather affects games northern cities. Then of course the Super Bowl won't be played until after Valentine's Day. This is way too long of a season in my estimation.
The NFL is forgetting a maxim used in show business for years - "always leave them wanting more." There is no need to satiate every whim of a fan or an owner. The games are a weekly event for every fan. The playoffs captivate the nation and the Super Bowl gets the attention of the world. The friggin draft is a national event for gawds sake! What about having the most popular sport in America and the best run league in the world don't you like NFL?
Don't mess with the product. It's perfect just the way it is.

Matt F.
Jun 24, 2009
03:32 PM

As someone who has been to the fourth preseason game of the year before, it's not as interesting, so I wouldn't mind seeing the preseason shortened to two games. You would have to had team scrimmages to training camp, which some teams already do. An 18-game schedule would make it a necessity.

Active Rosters need to be expanded. What's the point of a 53-man roster when all of them can't play in a game. Make everyone on the 53-game roster eligible to play, expand the practice squad to 12 players to give teams more room for their rookies they aren't able to properly evaluate during the shortened preseason.

Schedule changes: This is actually a simple change. Add a second bye after the 1st half of the season is over. Keep the current format with rotating between divisions in both conferences. The only change would be the "divisional place" games. As it is, the 1st place team from one year plays the 1st place teams in the divisions of their conference they do not already play. This gives only 2 opponents each year that is determined by finish. If you make all 1st and 2nd place teams play each other and all 3rd and 4th teams play each other (or some other combination, but I prefer this one), you now get 4 teams determined by the results and that's where your 17th and 18th games come from.

Injury Changes: Time to mirror MLB a little. Add x-weeks IR to fullseason IR. Keep the PUP the same as it is because, if I'm not mistaken, it's in place for injuries that existed before the regular season started. Once the season starts, teams should be able to place an injured player on IR without losing the player for the year. Say you've got a 4-week IR in addition to fullseason. During Week 4 a player injures a hamstring enough that means he'll miss a couple of games. You can put him on the 4-week IR, meaning he will not be able to play in the teams games the next four weeks minimum. To replace him on the Active Roster, you can move a player up from the practice squad. If and when the injured player returns, the player who replaced him can be returned to the practice squad, or another move depending on the situation. Teams can also transfer their players to fullseason IR if the injury is deemed to be more severe than originally thought. This would be like IR is currently, meaning the player no longer counts towards the Roster in any way.

As for pay, existing contracts would need to be prorated as mentioned in the article. Any contract signed after the installation of the 18-game season would be for 18-games.

Whiskey
Jun 24, 2009
06:01 PM

We love the NFL because every game in the 16 game schedule means so much in the standings. I feel adding 2 more games will eliminate some of the suspense we enjoy so much. I really don't see any good reason for the 2 additional games. It appears to me like a $$ grab by the owners. How does that improve the league? More games = more injuries. The system that is currently in place has been a huge success for many of years. Please don't change it. It's PERFECT.

Sonny_Corlione
Jun 24, 2009
09:26 PM

I'm all about what's best for the team. I would rather continue to see 16 games then watch my team fall apart in the playoffs. I just feel right now 4 games is working, why mess with it? The first game is basically easing into it, the second and third games are "live" goes and the fourth game is an opportunity for the last few guys to try to make the team; not to mention anyone who is being cut to have some game film available for other teams. We're talking about player's careers here and not just the business.

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