Should Bradford stay or go?

That list of underclassmen QBs is frightening, particularly the large number of number one's. To put it in perspective though, you need to compare it to a list of first round QBs who did not leave school early. I'm guessing the vast majority of them did not turn out to be franchise QBs either.

Parcell's guideline is interesting, but how did it work out in practice for him? Whom did he draft?

Sooner fan here weighing in. Sam is a great kid and no matter what decision he makes should be for himself and what is good for him. I personally hope he gets himself healthy and does not try to come back this season. I would love to see him in the OU uniform next year but he has to do what is best for him.

Sooner fan here weighing in. Sam is a great kid and no matter what decision he makes should be for himself and what is good for him. I personally hope he gets himself healthy and does not try to come back this season. I would love to see him in the OU uniform next year but he has to do what is best for him.

The guy should have struck while the iron was hot and come out last year. The only way he had to go was down after that. I guess it sounds nice that he isn't motivated by money but he does have a future life and probably a family to take care of. He would already have a huge signing bonus in the bank earning returns for him. Instead he's out there getting hurt and his draft stock is dropping like a rock. No telling how many multiple millions of dollars he has lost. If he stays another year and the NFL passes a rookie pay scale it could be 10s of millions. Do they teach any finance classes and present value of money at Oklahoma?

The rookie pay scale is definitely weighing on these guys and it should impact their decision. However, in Bradford's case he should stay another year just to get healthy and stay healthy because if he entered the draft I have a feeling he would be this years player who slides down the draft and he is too good of a player to have that happen to him. He could have come out last season and been drafted ahead of Josh Freeman, but he proved his worth when he didn't and he will do it again when he stays in school and silences the critics.

b roo, Bradford is studying accountancy and is pretty good at it from what i've read so I think he's aware of the numbers.

As for the list of underclassmen where is Aaron Rodgers? He would be classed as a franchise QB.

We don't yet know if Stafford will be one (he is also missing from the list).

Sitting here in Oklahoma, I just don't get the Bradford love. I don't mean that as a negative about what type of kid or person he is, but I just don't see the player everybody else does. He seems to have decent physical talent, but lack grit, toughness and big game moxie. I see him wilting under the type of beating Phillips Rivers took the other night, and not just physically. He will never have the surrounding talent advantage in the NFL he usually has-- at least most weeks-- at OU. He has always struck me as a kid who plays because he can, not necessarily because he wants or likes to...which isn't the type of player I would want leading my team.

That said, I'm a Broncos fan who was supremely disappointed in the Ryan Clady pick, so that's a clue to my credibility.

Aaron Rodgers is not a franchise QB.

You need to win more than 9 games in 5 years to be considered a franchise QB.
You need to have won more games than you've lost to be considered a franchise QB.
You need to win your division and go to the playoffs to be considered a franchise QB.

When Rodgers has done more than put up pretty numbers, then we can discuss him being a franchise QB.

I find it ironic that many of the 'strike while the iron is hot' crowd are the types who would have applauded most of the guys on the list going pro when they were not ready.

If Sam and his family feel Sam has the skills and ability to be a franchise NFL QB, than he'd be better served by returning to school and sharpening his skills rather than entering the NFL with 5 quarters experience in 16 months. That would be betting on the long term career money over the short term money he'd get for coming out after his draft stock slips.

But that's still a huge risk. Worst case scenario is he suffers another major injury that truly damages his NFL potential.

But I'm sure he'll play his cards right and not make an NFL decision to after the college season is over. There is nothing to gain there.

BTW, to the comments above asking about Accounting classes at OU. Sam is a Finance major with a very high GPA who IIRC is on pace to graduate this December.

So they do (attempt to) teach finance there and he does take the classes. This Texans beliefs on the worth of an okie education have just been confirmed. Hook 'Em!

Very good article.
Thanks

Is there an insurance package for these guys if they go back to school? I think most people would agree that staying in college for one more year would help most athletes be more NFL ready. I am sure there are a few exceptions. However, injury is key for me. Not many people get the opportunity to have the type of earning power an NFL player has...even those at the bottom of the roster. I would rather come out early to earn that dough to provide some type of financial security. Maybe these guys think differently than a a father with 2 kids trying to make ends meet. However, is there financial protection for these guys who make the decison to stay in school?

Winston,
Maybe Jack can fill us in on the insurance issue, that would make an interesting article. From what I've read before it only pays off if you have a career-ending injury. It doesn't compensate you for lost money because you slip in the draft because of a non-career-ending injury or a slip in performance from your Heisman year. I think it is also limited in how much you can receive, so you can't get insured for say the $72 million that Stafford's contract was for.

@b roo

he'd have plummeted after the combine and throwing sessions in front of scouts. he has accuracy, but he has Chad Pennington's arm, at best. Early 2nd rounder if he came out as a sophomore. Now, he can rebuild his shoulder, strengthen his body, and perhaps get some mechanics to get his arm stronger (mainly in legs/hips, where he's clearly weak). Kid is smart, tough, and a winner--and I'm a Longhorn fan saying this, and was not happy when he went down last week (I hate injuries, even on clean hits). But he's not likely to be a franchise NFL QB, and he will not be drafted as such, no matter when he may or may not have left college.

Looking at that list, I think the real lesson is: don't get drafted by a bad team. I mean, sure, JaMarcus Russell is struggling to grasp the pro game, but tell me the last time the Raiders drafted and trained a good franchise QB. Would it be Ken Stabler? The Bears couldn't help Rex Grossman adapt, okay fine. But who's the last guy they did that for? Other than maybe McMahon, it'd be Sid Luckman. In order to have NFL success, the right guy's got to come together with the right team.

Like another commenter said, we'd have to see a list of 4-year guys alongside this list for it to be convincing.

Some guys could play 15 years of college ball and not be ready (Young, Vick, Marinovich, Leaf, George). Their failure is a function of their personality, not how much time they spent in college.

Regarding Parcells the last two QBs he's picked are Tony Romo and Chad Henne. Romo may have even been undrafted but for all his flaws he is a franchise QB and played well for Parcells. Henne looks to be the steal of the 2nd round possibly even his draft though its still early. Seems to be a solid system.

I think the reasoning behind Bradford's decision has to do with regret for not going out after winning the Heisman. He would have been a Top 10 and been compensated accordingly. Everyone in the baseball world knows that a visit to Dr. Andrews rarely turns out good. So Bradford knows there is a chance that this surgery is career ending, if he doesn't take the money the NFL could give him this year, he may miss out even more then he did not entering last Aprils draft. Now he is having season ending surgery and will likely miss the combine... and if he does miss the combine, he'll have an excuse for doing poorly. There will definitely be teams looking at him in the second half of round 1 to take a chance on what they thought to be a top 10 last year. And thus, Bradford will still get a hefty payday.

I'm not saying this to be negative, its a very smart choice on Bradfords part. I honestly think he has the makeup to be an elite passer in the NFL, it just all fringes on this surgery. If the surgery goes good he just needs to add on a few pounds and go to a team that can protect him.