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Should Bradford stay or go?

The case against leaving college early is strong. Jack Bechta

Bookmark and Share Print This Send This October 22, 2009, 10:18 AM EST
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Sam BradfordAPOklahoma QB Sam Bradford faces a difficult decision -- should he stay or should he go?

Last season, three NFL quarterbacks -- Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and JaMarcus Russell -- were starting for their teams after having come out of college as underclassmen. This year, two others joined them: Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. It's safe to say that Big Ben has been a rousing success, but Russell is in his third year and struggling, and rookies Stafford and Sanchez are works in progress. Rodgers will likely attend many Pro Bowls in his career, but remember, he had three years to incubate, develop and learn before he took over in Green Bay.

Based on these numbers, I’m sure someone could build a case for encouraging underclassmen QBs to stay for their senior seasons. Many general managers I spoke to about this were adamant that the extra year is crucial to the development and maturation of an NFL quarterback. Even Bill Parcells has said he won’t put an underclassman QB on his draft board without the following: He must have his degree, must have started for three years and must have at least 23 wins.

Here’s a look at the NFL’s underclassmen QBs since 1990:

Draft yr   Name                        Pick    Team          School          Year

2009        Nate Davis                 171     49ers           Ball State        Junior
2009        Josh Freeman            17       Bucs            Kansas St.      Junior
2009        Mark Sanchez             5        Jets             USC               Junior
2007        JaMarcus Russell        1        Raiders        LSU               Junior
2006        Vince Young               3        Titans          Texas             Junior
2005        Alex Smith                  1        49ers           Utah              Junior
2004        Ben Roethlisberger     11       Steelers       Miami (OH)     Junior
2003        Rex Grossman           22       Bears           Florida           Junior
2001        Michael Vick               1        Falcons        VA Tech        Sophomore
1999        Tim Couch                  1        Browns         Kentucky       Junior
1998        Ryan Leaf                   2        Chargers      Wash. St.      Junior
1994        Heath Shuler               3        Redskins     Tennessee     Junior
1994        Trent Dilfer                  6        Bucs            Fresno St.     Junior
1993        Drew Bledsoe             1        Patriots         Wash. St.      Junior
1992        Tommy Maddox         25       Broncos        UCLA            Sophomore
1991        Todd Marinovich         24       Raiders         USC              Sophomore
1990        Jeff George                 1        Colts            Illinois            Junior
1990        Andre Ware                7        Lions            Houston         Junior

*Chart compiled by Adam Schefter.

It can be argued that only two QBs on that list, Bledsoe and Roethlisberger, are worthy of being called franchise quarterbacks.

Sam BradfordAPConcerns about his injuries may hurt Bradford's draft stock.

Within the agent community last year, I heard that Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford would have come out if he had won his bowl game and was a lock to be a top-five pick. Only Sam knows if that’s true.

I have to tell you, I was a bit disturbed Wednesday when I saw how ESPN was promoting Bradford’s press conference, which was scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. in the east. If you didn’t know any better, you would have thought the press conference was being produced by ESPN. It was starting to feel somewhat sensationalized, which probably didn’t sit well with many people in Oklahoma. I was actually glad to see it cancelled.

By the time this story is posted, it’s possible we’ll know more about the fate of Sam’s season. I hope he chooses to get himself fixed for the long term and come back for his senior year. From what I’ve gathered from scouts, he’s a special player -- maybe not a special physical talent but a QB who posses special intangibles and accuracy comparable to Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning. I also know that Sam is surrounded by a good support system. His father has been gathering information directly from good football people inside and outside the Oklahoma program. Whatever decisions that Sam and his family make will be well thought out.

The Oklahoma coaches and scouts I’ve talked to have nothing but great things to say about this young man. He’s not someone who will be motivated by money, fame or status. Rather, he’s a rare breed who seeks success and winning first and foremost, regardless of the path and time it takes to achieve them. Throw in an injury, extended rehab and the track record of underclassman QBs, and I’m fairly certain we’ll get to Bradford in an Oklahoma uniform next year.

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Comments

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meateater
Oct 22, 2009
11:41 AM

That list of underclassmen QBs is frightening, particularly the large number of number one's. To put it in perspective though, you need to compare it to a list of first round QBs who did not leave school early. I'm guessing the vast majority of them did not turn out to be franchise QBs either.

Parcell's guideline is interesting, but how did it work out in practice for him? Whom did he draft?

Lisa
Oct 22, 2009
11:48 AM

Sooner fan here weighing in. Sam is a great kid and no matter what decision he makes should be for himself and what is good for him. I personally hope he gets himself healthy and does not try to come back this season. I would love to see him in the OU uniform next year but he has to do what is best for him.

Lisa
Oct 22, 2009
12:02 PM

Sooner fan here weighing in. Sam is a great kid and no matter what decision he makes should be for himself and what is good for him. I personally hope he gets himself healthy and does not try to come back this season. I would love to see him in the OU uniform next year but he has to do what is best for him.

b roo
Oct 22, 2009
12:46 PM

The guy should have struck while the iron was hot and come out last year. The only way he had to go was down after that. I guess it sounds nice that he isn't motivated by money but he does have a future life and probably a family to take care of. He would already have a huge signing bonus in the bank earning returns for him. Instead he's out there getting hurt and his draft stock is dropping like a rock. No telling how many multiple millions of dollars he has lost. If he stays another year and the NFL passes a rookie pay scale it could be 10s of millions. Do they teach any finance classes and present value of money at Oklahoma?

PhillyBen
Oct 22, 2009
01:28 PM

The rookie pay scale is definitely weighing on these guys and it should impact their decision. However, in Bradford's case he should stay another year just to get healthy and stay healthy because if he entered the draft I have a feeling he would be this years player who slides down the draft and he is too good of a player to have that happen to him. He could have come out last season and been drafted ahead of Josh Freeman, but he proved his worth when he didn't and he will do it again when he stays in school and silences the critics.

British
Oct 22, 2009
04:27 PM

b roo, Bradford is studying accountancy and is pretty good at it from what i've read so I think he's aware of the numbers.

As for the list of underclassmen where is Aaron Rodgers? He would be classed as a franchise QB.

We don't yet know if Stafford will be one (he is also missing from the list).

Drew T.
Oct 22, 2009
06:43 PM

Sitting here in Oklahoma, I just don't get the Bradford love. I don't mean that as a negative about what type of kid or person he is, but I just don't see the player everybody else does. He seems to have decent physical talent, but lack grit, toughness and big game moxie. I see him wilting under the type of beating Phillips Rivers took the other night, and not just physically. He will never have the surrounding talent advantage in the NFL he usually has-- at least most weeks-- at OU. He has always struck me as a kid who plays because he can, not necessarily because he wants or likes to...which isn't the type of player I would want leading my team.

That said, I'm a Broncos fan who was supremely disappointed in the Ryan Clady pick, so that's a clue to my credibility.

Daniel
Oct 22, 2009
09:44 PM

Aaron Rodgers is not a franchise QB.

You need to win more than 9 games in 5 years to be considered a franchise QB.
You need to have won more games than you've lost to be considered a franchise QB.
You need to win your division and go to the playoffs to be considered a franchise QB.

When Rodgers has done more than put up pretty numbers, then we can discuss him being a franchise QB.

Gabbo
Oct 22, 2009
10:28 PM

I find it ironic that many of the 'strike while the iron is hot' crowd are the types who would have applauded most of the guys on the list going pro when they were not ready.

If Sam and his family feel Sam has the skills and ability to be a franchise NFL QB, than he'd be better served by returning to school and sharpening his skills rather than entering the NFL with 5 quarters experience in 16 months. That would be betting on the long term career money over the short term money he'd get for coming out after his draft stock slips.

But that's still a huge risk. Worst case scenario is he suffers another major injury that truly damages his NFL potential.

But I'm sure he'll play his cards right and not make an NFL decision to after the college season is over. There is nothing to gain there.

BTW, to the comments above asking about Accounting classes at OU. Sam is a Finance major with a very high GPA who IIRC is on pace to graduate this December.

b roo
Oct 22, 2009
11:28 PM

So they do (attempt to) teach finance there and he does take the classes. This Texans beliefs on the worth of an okie education have just been confirmed. Hook 'Em!

Blogspan
Oct 23, 2009
05:31 AM

Very good article.
Thanks

winston
Oct 23, 2009
09:56 AM

Is there an insurance package for these guys if they go back to school? I think most people would agree that staying in college for one more year would help most athletes be more NFL ready. I am sure there are a few exceptions. However, injury is key for me. Not many people get the opportunity to have the type of earning power an NFL player has...even those at the bottom of the roster. I would rather come out early to earn that dough to provide some type of financial security. Maybe these guys think differently than a a father with 2 kids trying to make ends meet. However, is there financial protection for these guys who make the decison to stay in school?

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