APOklahoma QB Sam Bradford faces a difficult decision -- should he stay or should he go?
Last season, three NFL quarterbacks -- Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and JaMarcus Russell -- were starting for their teams after having come out of college as underclassmen. This year, two others joined them: Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. It's safe to say that Big Ben has been a rousing success, but Russell is in his third year and struggling, and rookies Stafford and Sanchez are works in progress. Rodgers will likely attend many Pro Bowls in his career, but remember, he had three years to incubate, develop and learn before he took over in Green Bay.
Based on these numbers, I’m sure someone could build a case for encouraging underclassmen QBs to stay for their senior seasons. Many general managers I spoke to about this were adamant that the extra year is crucial to the development and maturation of an NFL quarterback. Even Bill Parcells has said he won’t put an underclassman QB on his draft board without the following: He must have his degree, must have started for three years and must have at least 23 wins.
Here’s a look at the NFL’s underclassmen QBs since 1990:
Draft yr Name Pick Team School Year
2009 Nate Davis 171 49ers Ball State Junior
2009 Josh Freeman 17 Bucs Kansas St. Junior
2009 Mark Sanchez 5 Jets USC Junior
2007 JaMarcus Russell 1 Raiders LSU Junior
2006 Vince Young 3 Titans Texas Junior
2005 Alex Smith 1 49ers Utah Junior
2004 Ben Roethlisberger 11 Steelers Miami (OH) Junior
2003 Rex Grossman 22 Bears Florida Junior
2001 Michael Vick 1 Falcons VA Tech Sophomore
1999 Tim Couch 1 Browns Kentucky Junior
1998 Ryan Leaf 2 Chargers Wash. St. Junior
1994 Heath Shuler 3 Redskins Tennessee Junior
1994 Trent Dilfer 6 Bucs Fresno St. Junior
1993 Drew Bledsoe 1 Patriots Wash. St. Junior
1992 Tommy Maddox 25 Broncos UCLA Sophomore
1991 Todd Marinovich 24 Raiders USC Sophomore
1990 Jeff George 1 Colts Illinois Junior
1990 Andre Ware 7 Lions Houston Junior
*Chart compiled by Adam Schefter.
It can be argued that only two QBs on that list, Bledsoe and Roethlisberger, are worthy of being called franchise quarterbacks.
APConcerns about his injuries may hurt Bradford's draft stock.
Within the agent community last year, I heard that Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford would have come out if he had won his bowl game and was a lock to be a top-five pick. Only Sam knows if that’s true.
I have to tell you, I was a bit disturbed Wednesday when I saw how ESPN was promoting Bradford’s press conference, which was scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. in the east. If you didn’t know any better, you would have thought the press conference was being produced by ESPN. It was starting to feel somewhat sensationalized, which probably didn’t sit well with many people in Oklahoma. I was actually glad to see it cancelled.
By the time this story is posted, it’s possible we’ll know more about the fate of Sam’s season. I hope he chooses to get himself fixed for the long term and come back for his senior year. From what I’ve gathered from scouts, he’s a special player -- maybe not a special physical talent but a QB who posses special intangibles and accuracy comparable to Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning. I also know that Sam is surrounded by a good support system. His father has been gathering information directly from good football people inside and outside the Oklahoma program. Whatever decisions that Sam and his family make will be well thought out.
The Oklahoma coaches and scouts I’ve talked to have nothing but great things to say about this young man. He’s not someone who will be motivated by money, fame or status. Rather, he’s a rare breed who seeks success and winning first and foremost, regardless of the path and time it takes to achieve them. Throw in an injury, extended rehab and the track record of underclassman QBs, and I’m fairly certain we’ll get to Bradford in an Oklahoma uniform next year.
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he'd have plummeted after the combine and throwing sessions in front of scouts. he has accuracy, but he has Chad Pennington's arm, at best. Early 2nd rounder if he came out as a sophomore. Now, he can rebuild his shoulder, strengthen his body, and perhaps get some mechanics to get his arm stronger (mainly in legs/hips, where he's clearly weak). Kid is smart, tough, and a winner--and I'm a Longhorn fan saying this, and was not happy when he went down last week (I hate injuries, even on clean hits). But he's not likely to be a franchise NFL QB, and he will not be drafted as such, no matter when he may or may not have left college.
-If you are a LOCK to be a top 5 pick you should probably come out. However, you probably want to take a good look where you will end up: the Raiders, Lions, ...it may impact your decision.
-Insurance: It barely makes sense to get insurance any more. the premiums have sky rocketed in the last 10 years and it's only for career ending injuries
-If you are a LOCK to be a top 5 pick you should probably come out. However, you probably want to take a good look where you will end up: the Raiders, Lions, ...it may impact your decision.
-Insurance: It barely makes sense to get insurance any more. the premiums have sky rocketed in the last 10 years and it's only for career ending injuries
Looking at that list, I think the real lesson is: don't get drafted by a bad team. I mean, sure, JaMarcus Russell is struggling to grasp the pro game, but tell me the last time the Raiders drafted and trained a good franchise QB. Would it be Ken Stabler? The Bears couldn't help Rex Grossman adapt, okay fine. But who's the last guy they did that for? Other than maybe McMahon, it'd be Sid Luckman. In order to have NFL success, the right guy's got to come together with the right team.
Like another commenter said, we'd have to see a list of 4-year guys alongside this list for it to be convincing.
Some guys could play 15 years of college ball and not be ready (Young, Vick, Marinovich, Leaf, George). Their failure is a function of their personality, not how much time they spent in college.
Regarding Parcells the last two QBs he's picked are Tony Romo and Chad Henne. Romo may have even been undrafted but for all his flaws he is a franchise QB and played well for Parcells. Henne looks to be the steal of the 2nd round possibly even his draft though its still early. Seems to be a solid system.
I think the reasoning behind Bradford's decision has to do with regret for not going out after winning the Heisman. He would have been a Top 10 and been compensated accordingly. Everyone in the baseball world knows that a visit to Dr. Andrews rarely turns out good. So Bradford knows there is a chance that this surgery is career ending, if he doesn't take the money the NFL could give him this year, he may miss out even more then he did not entering last Aprils draft. Now he is having season ending surgery and will likely miss the combine... and if he does miss the combine, he'll have an excuse for doing poorly. There will definitely be teams looking at him in the second half of round 1 to take a chance on what they thought to be a top 10 last year. And thus, Bradford will still get a hefty payday.
I'm not saying this to be negative, its a very smart choice on Bradfords part. I honestly think he has the makeup to be an elite passer in the NFL, it just all fringes on this surgery. If the surgery goes good he just needs to add on a few pounds and go to a team that can protect him.
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Oct 24, 2009
01:09 PM
Winston,
Maybe Jack can fill us in on the insurance issue, that would make an interesting article. From what I've read before it only pays off if you have a career-ending injury. It doesn't compensate you for lost money because you slip in the draft because of a non-career-ending injury or a slip in performance from your Heisman year. I think it is also limited in how much you can receive, so you can't get insured for say the $72 million that Stafford's contract was for.