SIT 'EM DOWN
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Houston): Dalton has put together one hell of a rookie season and currently ranks 13th in fantasy scoring at the quarterback position. But keep in mind that the former TCU standout hasn’t thrown for more than one touchdown pass in any of his last three games and takes on a Houston Texans defense this Sunday that currently ranks third in the NFL against the pass (183.4 yds/gm) and is surrendering only 13.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (4th-fewest in NFL). There are better options out there.
The line: Cincinnati -3/38
Vegas notes: The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog while the Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
The pick: Bengals (buy the hook and take it down to CIN -2.5)
Beanie Wells won't find much to work with Sunday against the 49ers.
Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals (vs. San Francisco): The last time these two teams got together, the former Ohio State product rushed for just 33 yards on eight carries. Did we forget to mention that the 49ers defense has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season? As if that wasn’t frightening enough, be advised that no team in the NFL is giving up fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs this season than the San Francisco 49ers (10.3 pts/gm). This has disaster written all over it.
The line: San Francisco -3.5/39
Vegas notes: The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 while the Cardinals 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
The pick: The Cardinals recent run of success comes to a halt Sunday against the Niners. I’ll take San Francisco -3.5.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (at New York Jets): Bowe hasn’t found the end zone since October 9 against the Indianapolis Colts and we see no reason to believe why he’ll break that trend Sunday in East Rutherford. Not only are the Jets surrendering just 16.5 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season (3rd-fewest in NFL), but Bowe will likely be matched up with Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis. Wide receivers rarely walk away from a Revis showdown with a favorable stat line.
The line: New York Jets -10.5/36.5
Vegas notes: The UNDER is 7-0 in the Chiefs’ last seven games overall, but the OVER is 22-8 in the Jets’ last 30 games overall.
The pick: The total on this game is a no-play for me, but if I have to make a selection, let’s ride with the UNDER (36.5).
Owen Daniels, TE, Houston Texans (at Cincinnati): What the hell happened to this guy? A one-time force in the fantasy football world, Daniels has completely fallen off the edge of the Earth, having failed to score a touchdown since October 2 and coming short of 40 receiving yards in each of his last four games. Once again, we advise you to aim low regarding Daniels when it comes to Week 14, as the Bengals are giving up an average of only 5.8 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (4th-fewest in NFL).
The line: Cincinnati -3/38
Vegas notes: The UNDER is 7-2 in the Texans’ last nine games against AFC opponents and 17-5 in the Bengals’ last 22 games played in the month of December.
The pick: UNDER (38)
New Orleans Saints, D/ST (at Tennessee): For as outstanding as the Saints play at home, keep in mind that this team is just 3-3 on the road this season and is giving up an average of 26.5 points per game in the process. That’s not all that impressive, especially when you take into account the fact that the Titans are surrendering an average of only 6.3 fantasy points per game to opposing D/STs this season ((t-2nd-fewest in NFL). Don’t be surprised if New Orleans struggles in Nashville on Sunday.
The line: New Orleans -3.5/48.5
Vegas notes: Despite the fact that 89% of the action is coming in on the Saints, this line has moved from NO -4.5 to NO -3.5.
The pick: Trap game alert! I’ll take the Titans and the points.
Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets (vs. Kansas City): Sanchez has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in four of his last five games and is completing a dreadful 56.5% of his passes this season. Not good, especially for a three-year veteran. Don’t pin your fantasy playoff hopes to this guy just because he’s playing the unimpressive Chiefs this Sunday. Remember, Kansas City is giving up an average of just 17.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (10th-fewest in NFL) and Vegas opened this total at 37 for a reason. Bookmakers do not expect a lot of points to be scored in this one.
The line: New York Jets -10.5/36.5
Vegas notes: Already covered above
The pick: Already made above (Jets -10.5)
D-Will and J-Stew are in for a tough afternoon against a stout Atlanta run defense.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. Atlanta): Williams put on a show two weeks ago at Indianapolis, but laid an egg last Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We don’t expect the train to get back on the tracks this Sunday against a Falcons defense that ranks third in the NFL against the run (90.0 yds/gm) and is giving up an average of only 14.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (5th-fewest in NFL). Throw in the fact that D-Will is going to lose carries to backup Jonathan Stewart and you have a guy that will likely produce very little in a crucial Week 14 fantasy playoff matchup.
The line: Atlanta -3/47.5
Vegas notes: The Falcons are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following a straight up loss while the Panthers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.
The pick: Falcons (buy the hook and take ATL -2.5)
Brandon Lloyd, WR, St. Louis Rams (at Seattle): Lloyd has found the end zone in three of his last four games, but the quarterback situation in St. Louis is a complete mess right now. Sam Bradford (ankle) and A.J. Feeley (thumb) missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday, meaning former Fresno State quarterback Tom Brandstater—who has never thrown an NFL pass—could be in line to start at Seattle on Monday night. Oh yeah, don’t forget that the Seahawks are surrendering only 19.4 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season (11th-fewest in NFL).
The line: Seattle -4.5/39.5
Vegas notes: The UNDER is 6-1 in the Rams’ last seven games played in the month of December, but the OVER is 6-0 in the Seahawks’ last six games played in the month of December.
The pick: Already made above (Seattle -4.5)
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