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Tavern talk: Big plays are key to winning

Most successful teams know that passing gets a lead, running keeps it. Michael Lombardi

Print This December 02, 2009, 05:06 PM EST
8 Comments

The other day on NFL Network, I made a comment about how the Saints win games violating almost every offensive principle such as time of possession and their rushes and completions. I’m not a big believer in establishing the run early in a game because all it does is establish that you’ll be kicking field goals. I do believe in making big plays in the passing game and then being able to run the ball late in the game. Most successful teams throw to score and get the lead, then run the ball to keep the lead. That’s why I always look at the rushes and completions after each game to determine the ratios.

Here are the current league leaders in this category:

Note: Bold-faced teams have winning records...

2009 Rushes and Completions

1 - NE  55.0
2 - Min  53.5
3 - NO  53.3
4t - Hou  51.6
4t - Mia  51.6
6 - Cin  51.5
7 - NYG  50.6
8 - GB  50.4
9 - Pit  50.2
10 - Ind  49.8
11 - Bal  49.7
12 - NYJ  49.1
13 - Ari  48.9
14 - Atl  48.6
15t - Car  48.2
15t - Ten  48.2
17 - Jac  48.0
18 - Sea  47.5
19 - Den  46.9
20 - SD  46.5

21 - Was  46.2
22 - StL  46.0
23t - Dal  45.8
23t - Det  45.8
25 - Phi  45.7
26 - KC  44.5
27 - Chi  44.2
28 - Buf  42.4
29 - Cle  41.6
30 - TB  41.5
31 - SF  40.9
32 - Oak  39.4

Avg  47.6

Now, this formula doesn’t ensure that a team will win the game, but it does go a long way toward winning the game. To win in the NFL, you have to be balanced, and one of the many things to love about the Saints this year is their willingness to run the ball on fourth-and-1 in the first half last Monday. In the past, they might have tried and failed, or they might not even have attempted a run and just thrown an option route. Their toughness this year allows them to call runs as they move away from being a finesse team (no wonder they don’t want to re-sign Reggie Bush) to a physically tough team.

The Chargers are low because they don’t have a running game and have moved from being LaDainian Tomlinson’s team to Philip Rivers’ team (he deserves to be mentioned in the MVP race). The Eagles are low because we all know they hate to call running plays, and the Cowboys at times struggle to complete passes as well as run the ball. Denver has been inconsistent in both areas at certain times this year, and these four teams are the only ones in the bottom half of this list that have winning records. Not being ranked high in this area is not a death sentence as evidenced by last year’s rankings:

Note: Bold-faced teams did not make the playoffs...

2008 Rushes and Completions

1 - Bal  53.3
2 - NE  53.3
3 - Atl  51.6
4 - NO  50.7
5 - TB  50.4
6 - NYG  50.0
7 - Hou  49.9
8 - Was  49.8

9 - Phi  49.3
10 - Min  49.1
11 - GB  48.8
12 - Mia  48.6
13t - Den  48.3
13t - Ten  48.3
15 - NYJ  48.1
16t - Ind  47.7
16t - Pit  47.7
18 - Jac  47.6
19 - Ari  47.4
20 - Car  46.9
21 - Buf  46.8
22 - Chi  46.1
23 - SD  45.8
24 - Dal  45.6
25 - Cin  45.2
26 - StL  44.3
27 - SF  44.1
28 - KC  43.1
29 - Oak  42.6
30 - Sea  42.4
31 - Cle  40.4
32 - Det  39.6

Avg  47.3

Pittsburgh was ranked tied for 16th last year but was dominating on defense, and the Cardinals were 19th. So it’s possible to reach the Super Bowl with a lower than normal number, but it will take being good in other areas to excel.

Follow me on Twitter: michaelombardi

Comments

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Charles
Dec 02, 2009
07:25 PM

What do you think about the news that the Raiders fans asking Davis to step down and have a billboard up begging him to sign a GM?

Mr.Murder
Dec 02, 2009
07:30 PM

Dallas also has RB by committee and they had an injury at right tackle recently.

The Saints have an extra item that makes them great at running. Using Zach Strief, an extra lineman, as a tight end on their three wide set. It forces teams to match the run front and that makes it easier for Brees to find throw lanes, audible protections, and see coverage rotations.

Was he in the most recent game, or was he inactive? It seems like I didn't see or hear of him, but New England actually used some unbalanced or extra people like that. It seems like they lost that kind of balance later in the game after the Saints broke a long throw and the team got into catchup mode.

Command running in situations, and to control time in reaching the four minute mark. The rest of a game you need yards, look at the results of games you went into slowdown mode in the first half for games of less than twenty points. How many did you win?

Then looking at it in the second half you already know that the clock is the opponent. Having field position and a lead can determine a good bit of thae play selection.

pack
Dec 02, 2009
09:45 PM

meh, doesn't seem to be too much of a correlation between that statistic and winning, other than the obvious fact that if you have the lead you're obviously going to run the ball more plus if you complete passes you're going to win more. there are 7 bolded teams in the top 13.

Igor
Dec 03, 2009
02:25 AM

What surprises me is how Denver is in the middle of the pack. With a first year HC, GM, OC, DC and 50+ new players. They should be at the bottom of the list because of having to adjust to new offensive schemes and a new QB.
At least that is what the media said. Now they are 7-4 and fighting for a playoff spot.

New Orleans should not be that big of a surprise. They have shown signs of being a juggernaut the past two years. It was just when would they put it all together and if they had the depth to keep it going after injuries. Looks like this is the year.

San Diego is San Diego, same team different year. Much like "Climategate" San Diego has been shown to be a fraud time and again. But the media ignores it. They do well in the regular season, come to life toward the end, then fail in the playoffs. Rivers looks great, as does the receiving corps but without a running game or a defense to stop the run. Well, as Denver showed in SD when they won, SD has holes and good teams will take advantage of them. Again SD will be the team in the AFC West without a ring because of this.

Indy is Indy, darn good and maybe the best. Right now my sleeper is Cincy with their running game and DB's. Very good and if they put it all together downright dangerous.

Just Me
Dec 03, 2009
09:56 AM

Correlation does not imply causation.

Yatrix
Dec 03, 2009
10:04 AM

I disagree, Mike. I think scoring more points is the key to winning. =)

Hannibal
Dec 03, 2009
11:10 AM

Mike wrote: "I made a comment about how the Saints win games violating almost every offensive principle such as time of possession and their rushes and completions."

Well, the Saints are 3rd in R&C and top 10 in TOP, so no.

porno
Jun 09, 2010
08:47 AM

Rivers looks great, as does the receiving corps but without a running game or a defense to stop the run.

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