Tavern talk: Blue power rankings

Why isn't Brandon Jacobs blue or almost blue?

Lombardi, you need to deduct a few points for anti-blue Brad Childress. That puts the Packers ahead of the Vikings.

Yeah, I thought B Jacobs was blue on the first cut, then dropped to almost blue.

Really smart project, as most teams fall into where you'd expect them. For example, Indy seems low, until you realize the difference between their current ranking and being tied with the Giants for 3rd overall is the 12 point hole created by Tony Dungy's departure.

Just wish we could create negative points for terrible coaches and/or QBs, mainly so that the Vikings could fall back down to earth. What's the opposite of a blue-chip coach? Can we just call it a Childress?

I think the weighting system could use some work, I don't see how Leodis McKelvin contributes as much as Lee Evans to a win or how Gostkowski contributes the same as Seymour, but I think the list is amazingly close to how most would rank their teams.

Even my team, Buffalo, is almost square where I thought it would be. Great job. This has been fun following.

Mike,

Great work on this. It's amazing to me that the Packers managed to squeeze so few wins out of so much talent last year. A couple of things that I would love to see you follow up with on this:
(1) This same list broken down by offenses, defenses and special teams. This will allow us to see not only how the whole teams perform, but also individual units, and compare them to the actual 2009 season results,
(2) A follow up article at the end of the season comparing this list the actual performance of the teams, and flagging the players who fell off or made the leap to blue chip status to help explain the differences,
(3) In the next few weeks, a list of players on each team most likely to make the leap to blue chip status from non blue chip or almost blue chip that could affect the outcome of the season. (eg My GB Packers, the most likely difference makers would be Nick Barnett becoming a blue chip, and Ryan Grant and Nick Collins becoming blue chip or almost blue chip players. I suppose on the flip side, the fall off of Kampman, Harris, or Driver would be the most likely regressions). This would probably be just as much work as the first list, but it would also allow you to put a number on the upside and downside of each team.

I'm not expecting a list like #3 (but would love to see it), but lists #1 and #2 wouldn't be too much work and would be much appreciated.

Keep up the good work.

-Jed

How about an "almost blue" ranking for coaches? Coaches like Sean Payton, John Haurbaugh and John Fox are brilliant in devising game plans that exploit mismatches and they manage the games very well. They aren't quite at Belichicks or Tomlin's level, but they're close. Teams with those coaches should be awarded 6 or 7 points

Looking at the point differential between Arizona and Philadelphia, I have to ask how many points is homefield advantage worth? 19,20?

Great work Mike. I think this is the year the NFC comes into its own. They have by your list 6 of the top ten teams (with ties). Hopefully we'll see another quality Superbowl this year. Keep on.

Baltimore is woefully undervalued in your rankings. They beat and sometimes crushed six teams ranked higher than them last season. And they were one game from the Superbowl. It makes no sense. Either their best players are misgraded/undergraded by you or their backups are much bettter than the backups on other teams. not to mention the other fact that they finished 30th in the league in terms of overall games missed by starters. There is no other way to account for these anomalies unless you give Harbaugh and his assistants all the credit, in which case, he should be a "blue" coach. Something simply doesn't make sense.

Before last season, would Mike Shanahan have been considered a blue coach? Still can't believe he's not coaching anywhere.

Also, how about a list of orange coaches? (opposite side of the color wheel) Brad Childress and Dick Jauron immediately come to mind.

Mike, I should have put this comment in when I first noticed it, but I have to say this even if it's too late! By your own definition--"Each week he (a blue-chipper) has a consistent level of performance"--Kris Jenkins is not blue chip material. He is notorious for taking plays off, getting dubious injuries, and (when all else fails) simply fading away down the stretch of a season due to a lack of conditioning--and his team suffers because of it. As a transplanted Carolina fan whose move to NYC eerily coincided with Jenkins' move to the Jets, I am now seeing the same articles written about his shoddy, inconsistent effort in the NYC tabloids that I used to read about in the Raleigh News & Observer--it's like he's haunting me! For my own sanity, you can't keep him as a blue-chipper--just look at your own definition!

Great work Mike. I think this is the year the NFC comes into its own. They have by your list 6 of the top ten teams (with ties). Hopefully we'll see another quality Superbowl this year. Keep on.

I don't see how Alan Faneca doesn't make the blue or at the least, almost blue....all-pro for how long? Then there is Thomas Jones who over the last four years has more yards rushing then every running back except LT......guess the JETS would be too high on your rankings then.

I don't like where this ultimately went. I think that if you stop grading at the almost blue level then give point values, you miss out on all the players in the middle of the roster as well as the coaches that are good, but haven't yet reached the 'blue' level. It seems like you are using past results more than future potential.

You would probably get more predictive results if you took an average of the overall ratings from Madden NFL video games, weighting them based on the importance of the positions.

The rankings seem close enough to the real deal that they're obviously a solid foundation. I'd say the next step is to evaluate how it all stacks up and start making some adjustments.

As some have pointed out, Baltimore looks undervalued, but part of that would no doubt be due to the departure of Scott, and the as yet unseen but widely expected improvement from other areas of the team. New England also should certainly not be 12 points clear in the league. I suspect the list overvalues offense over defence somewhat.

Some possible refinements:

- Head Coach Almost Blues

- Co-ordinator Blue Chippers and almost blues (Dick LeBeau)

- Incorporate co-ordinators into the head coach rankings

- Have a look at some of the individual points rankings - for example, was Albert Haynesworth a 10 last year? I would say he enabled the pass rush enough that you could probably put him down a s a 12 point guy. I'm sure there are a few other examples of players who have even greater impact than normal.

Don Banks, you nailed it. The Ravens have better pieces around their blue players. Same as the Patriots, Eagles, and Steelers. You win with your worst players, blue chip guys cancel out blue chip guys. Would have liked to see blue chip coordinators, I nominate Jim Johnson posthumously.

I love seeing the pats at the top of the list. As a pats fan it worries me seeing the steelers and giants right behind them.

Great job on the project Mike I think you nailed it.

Where's Shaun Rogers?

OMG! How can you not rate the most accurate passer in league history, and the comeback player of the year last year as at least an Almost Blue? How can you deny AT LEAST Almost blue status to a head coach that turns a team around from ONE AND FIFTEEN to ELEVEN AND FIVE in ONE YEAR?

You may pooh-pooh the Dolphins as having an easy schedule last year, but that doesn't change the fact that Sparano brought a focus on conditioning that let us have the fewest injuries amongst starters last year, and a commitment to protecting the football that led us to tie for the least turnovers in league history last year.

Pennington brought us a level of professionalism, and leadership to the QB position that hasn't been here since Marino retired. He also taught the team how to win. Overlooking these two is a serious oversite on your part. I would call both Blue, but would accept almost blue until they prove that last year wasn't a fluke.

I realize this dead horse has been beaten and rendered, but in light of the Marshall demotion I offer these rankings by some of the main media outlets and their top 200 fantasy player boards. Here I compare Boldin only to Evans and Bryant -- two of Mike's blue WRs -- and I realize these fantasy rankings likely use different criteria, but Mike, I just wonder how there can be such a gap between the rankings of these outlets vis-a-vis your assessment. I wonder what NFP's rankings reveal? And again, I am thinking that I just am missing the criteria you base these grades on.

boldin cbs 25; nfl.com 23; espn 22; SI 28; USAToday 28
bryant cbs 86; nfl.com 61; espn 66; SI 59; USAToday 62
evans cbs 61; nfl.com 72; evans 73; SI 65; USAToday 81

PFW has Boldin as 9th top WR; Bryant 21; Evans 27

Thanks for these lists. The site is great

So much for the Chargers having the most talented team in the NFL.

Also, How can you grade two almost blue CB's (5.5 x 2 = 11) about the same as one CB (10.5). I would much rather have the two solids, as you can easily scheme away from the one stud CB.

Overall, I am mixed. Great project, 'preciate the effort; but really very subjective. It says more about the author than the actual state of the NFL. New England is just not that much better than everyone else, especially for a team that didn't even make the playoffs last year. With all that talent, they should have fired the coach for such a dismal failure.

I think Champ Bailey should be Blue. He's missed some time lately but much less time than Bob Sanders who you had as Blue. Sanders has played as many as 7 games twice!!!!! I know Bailey was banged up but he's still a top 3-5 corner in the league and maybe still number one if he can regain his health

Mike,
What about the Anti-Blue list?

Players that are being asked to play in starting roles that they aren't in any position to be capable of handling?

Enough, already. I'm sorry, but this blue thing has gotten really, really old.

@johnwer

The key thing you said about Faneca is he WAS an All-Pro. That's what players do as they get older, their abilities regress. He no longer plays at that level. Still a good starter but he is no longer a blue-chipper.

Plus why would the Jets be hi on the rankings. They were an average team last year and they are expected to be an average team this year, so the finished right in the middle of the rankings.


@Tree

Really Pennington? You think he is a top 10 QB in the league? Great leader, great accuracy but he is not a blue chipper. He and the Dolphins did benefit from an easy schedule last year, they only player 3 playoff games and they went 1-2, beting an 8-8 SD Chargers team. This season will be much different.

Also, after the way Pennington performed in the playoffs, there is no way he could make the blue-chip list.

Mike, it looks like Bill Simmons steered you in the right direction with this article, but I love the touches you put on it yourself. Certain positions getting more value than others is definitely a great metric to use. I almost completely agree with the order of the teams, but I don't see New England as a whole 15 points better than Pittsburgh.

Casey Hampton is a BLUE player and has been for YEARS. Also James Farrior should not only be on this list, but should be bordering between BLUE and Almost Blue. If you ask any Steeler on the team which guys made that #1 Defense go, they'd say Hampton is the main reason the team stops the run while Farrior is the defensive captain who does a bit of everything. He was 2nd in NFL Def. POY a few years back, made the Pro Bowl last year and has made multiple Pro Bowls since joining the Steelers. That's a 10 point different right there which puts Pittsburgh a much more reasonable distance from New England.

Nothing against Timlin, but he basically walked into a situation Cowher created. Is he really better than Arizona's Whisenhunt, who took a perennial loser to the Super Bowl?

Considering a blue chip coach is valued by this ranking system almost as highly as a blue chip QB, and considering the recent deals for blue and near blue QBs, it will be interesting to see the kind of deals Cowher and Shanahan get. Mike, as a GM, what would you be willing to pay for a blue chip coach?

I didn't see Sproles on the list. At the very least he is almost blue at the specialist position which would put SD at 75 in sole position at 4.

Is it just me or is Lombardi the only person on the planet that thinks that Antonio Bryant and Lee Evans are better receivers than Anquan Boldin? Boldin's omission makes this list downright laughable.

Anquan Boldin is a blue if there ever was one. The numbers prove it easily.

Also, I like the coach idea, but there are more than 5 good coaches in the league. It would make sense to have an almost blue for coaches as well so the numbers aren't such an "all or nothing". Tomlin and Reid should not get their team 13 points when a coach like Whisenhut, who out coached both in the playoffs gets his team 0.

Great work, Mike.

No, I'm not saying Pennington is Payton Manning Jr., I am just saying that He deserves more credit than he is getting here. Any non-Dolphins fans able to name three receivers/TE's on the Dolphins last year? Yet Pennington's QB rating was over 100. Why should he be docked because he hasn't had a 4,000 yard season? Look at his W-L ratio in his career, and the fact that he makes the players around him better. He puts his receivers in a position to succeed, by putting the ball right where it needs to be. Call him a game manager if you like, but the Dolphins might not get to 8-8 without him last year. I can safely put at least three wins on his shoulders. How is that not blue chip?

Oh, and those two losses against playoff teams? The super bowl runner up, and the team that ended up beating us in the playoffs, too.. CLEARLY we're not up to snuff.lol. We also split with 11-5 New England, and 10-6 New York.

Mike - not a bad list though I'm still confused as to what you mean by blue chip; to me, that was always a top prospect at that position, a prototype guy around whom you could build. This was a franchise QB, a feature back, a #1 WR on any team, etc. A lot of guys in the NFL don't come in as blue chippers for a number of reasons but due to their hard work, natural talent, and coaching, they are All Pros.

One big thing you're missing is coaching staffs. Maybe that's what you mean by coaches but to me it's the position coaches and coordinators that put in countless hours to get the most out of their players and figure out how to get their guys in the best situations possible.

Prediction: By this time next year, Ed Johnson, Anthony Gonzalez, and Donald Brown will be "almost blue."

I think Frank Gore will be on your blue list this time next year. There are lots of reasons to think he will return to '06 form, minus the ball-handling issues at the goal line.

This is just a list of players that you like...

I don't think there's any question the Jets coaching staff would tell you that David Harris is more important to their defense than Bart Scott. And Kerry Rhodes should be a blue chip player and its a joke he doesnt even make the cut as almost blue.

Brandon Jacobs, Barrett Robbins, Brandon Cofield should all get mention for the Giants.

Antonio Bryant has been a model of inconsistency throughout his career, with one excellent season.

Felix Jones makes the cut over Marion Barber? Which one is more important to that team?

I could go on and on...