Last Sunday in the NFL, we had two games that came down to the two-minute drive for one team to win. In the drives prior to punting the ball, the leading team did all it could do to make sure its opponent used its timeouts or it got first downs. In the first game, the Bucs at the Falcons, the Bucs attempted to go for a 51-yard field goal, realizing that if they missed, they would give the Falcons the ball back on a short field but still needing a touchdown to beat them. Had they made the kick, a touchdown would have put them up seven points. So the fundamental question, if you’re Bucs coach Raheem Morris, is: Does he attempt the field goal or punt the ball and, at worse, make the Falcons go 80 yards to win the game without a timeout? Let’s break down all of Morris’ options:
1. Punt the ball and hope it lands inside the 20, making the Falcons travel a minimum of 80 yards.
2. Go for it on fourth and 4, even having the option to pass, since the clock will stop on a change of possession regardless of the outcome of the play if it’s not a first down.
3. Attempt a 51-yard field goal, indoors, under ideal conditions, understanding that if you miss the kick, the ball is moved seven yards closer to your goal line. If you make the kick, a touchdown can only send the game into overtime.
4. Attempt to get the Falcons to jump offside with a unique shift and hard count that you’ve practiced for this exact situation. If they don’t move, then they would probably accept the penalty for delay and force you to punt, but with more room to coffin corner the kick. If they decline the penalty, options 1-3 are still available.
I would use option No. 4 and make the Falcons have to make a decision. If they decline the penalty, then I would punt the ball and make them go 80 yards with a backup quarterback. I’m tempted to go for it on fourth and 4 — what does a one-win team have to lose? But in the interest of sound clock management, I would use No. 4 first, then No. 1. My last option is No. 3, as I would rather go for it, feeling my odds are more favorable to make a first down on fourth and 4 than make a 51 yarder and lose seven additional yards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 6:38
1-10-TB 33 (6:38) D.Ward right tackle to TB 35 for 2 yards (C.Owens).
2-8-TB 35 (5:58) J.Freeman pass short right to A.Bryant pushed ob at TB 46 for 11 yards (C.Owens). P12
1-10-TB 46 (5:32) (Shotgun) D.Ward right end to TB 49 for 3 yards (J.Abraham).
Timeout #1 by TB at 04:46.
2-7-TB 49 (4:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-D.Ward, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.
2-12-TB 44 (4:46) (Shotgun) D.Ward up the middle to ATL 49 for 7 yards (C.Lofton).
3-5-ATL 49 (4:08) (Shotgun) J.Freeman pass short middle to S.Stroughter to ATL 39 for 10 yards (C.Lofton). P13
1-10-ATL 39 (3:25) D.Ward right end to ATL 37 for 2 yards (C.Owens).
Timeout #2 by ATL at 03:21.
2-8-ATL 37 (3:21) D.Ward up the middle to ATL 36 for 1 yard (J.Anderson).
Timeout #3 by ATL at 03:16.
3-7-ATL 36 (3:15) D.Ward right tackle to ATL 33 for 3 yards (K.Biermann, J.Anderson).
4-4-ATL 33 (2:34) C.Barth 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-A.Economos, Holder-D.Johnson.
Atlanta Falcons at 2:30
1-10-ATL 41 (2:30) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass incomplete short right to T.Gonzalez.
2-10-ATL 41 (2:24) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass short right to T.Gonzalez to ATL 49 for 8 yards (G.Hayes).
3-2-ATL 49 (2:06) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass short left to E.Weems to TB 46 for 5 yards (T.Jackson). P16
Two-Minute Warning
1-10-TB 46 (2:00) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass incomplete deep right to M.Jenkins.
2-10-TB 46 (1:53) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass short right to T.Gonzalez to TB 35 for 11 yards (G.Hayes). P17
1-10-TB 35 (1:35) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass short left to M.Jenkins to TB 25 for 10 yards (D.Roberson). P18
1-10-TB 25 (1:20) C.Redman spiked the ball to stop the clock.
2-10-TB 25 (1:19) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass short right to T.Gonzalez to TB 16 for 9 yards (G.Hayes).
3-1-TB 16 (1:14) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass short middle to T.Gonzalez to TB 10 for 6 yards (G.Hayes). P19
1-10-TB 10 (:50) C.Redman spiked the ball to stop the clock.
2-10-TB 10 (:49) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass incomplete short middle to M.Booker.
Timeout #2 by TB at 00:40.
3-10-TB 10 (:40) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass incomplete short right to T.Gonzalez (S.Piscitelli).
PENALTY on TB-D.Roberson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TB 10 - No Play. X20
1-5-TB 5 (:36) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass incomplete short left to R.White.
2-5-TB 5 (:34) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass incomplete short right.
3-5-TB 5 (:30) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass incomplete short left to T.Gonzalez.
Timeout #3 by TB at 00:26.
4-5-TB 5 (:26) (Shotgun) C.Redman pass short left to R.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. P21
The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.
J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Pittman, Holder-M.Koenen.
TB 17 ATL 20, 15 plays, 59 yards, 1 penalty, 2:07 drive, 14:37 elapsed
Arizona at Tennessee
The Cardinals did everything right with their play calls. Unfortunately for them, they were not able to execute well enough to get a first down. The Titans are one of the best clock-management teams in the NFL and they preserve timeouts in the second half as well as anyone.
What I find amazing about the Vince Young drive is the fact the Titans never had to call a timeout, and they had two of them until 17 seconds to go in the game. They moved the ball down the field, and had the Cards been able to keep the Titans inbounds at any point, they might have been able to win the game. The Cards’ biggest failure was not keeping the receivers inbounds at least three times during the drive.
The Cards had plenty of time to rest their defensive line and rotate them into the game, so there was no need for them to burn a timeout. Their only regret, I’m sure, is the fact that when the Titans came out on the second fourth-and-4, they might have called a timeout to get organized and help their defense prepare for the next play — but that’s not really a big deal. I hate when basketball coaches have to call a timeout with little time remaining to set up a play when in fact they should be prepared for the situation.
The Cards’ failure lies in their inability to make a play at the right time.
Arizona Cardinals at 4:37
1-10-ARZ 30 (4:37) T.Hightower left end to ARZ 37 for 7 yards (C.Finnegan).
PENALTY on ARZ-R.Wells, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARZ 30 - No Play.
1-20-ARZ 20 (4:29) T.Hightower right end to ARZ 22 for 2 yards (K.Bulluck, W.Hayes).
2-18-ARZ 22 (3:44) M.Leinart pass short right to T.Hightower to ARZ 25 for 3 yards (N.Harper, W.Hayes).
3-15-ARZ 25 (2:59) (Shotgun) M.Leinart pass short right to J.Wright to ARZ 35 for 10 yards (J.Ford, K.Vanden Bosch). TEN-W.Hayes was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Timeout #1 by TEN at 02:49.
4-5-ARZ 35 (2:49) (Punt formation) B.Graham punts 64 yards to TEN 1, Center-M.Leach, downed by ARZ-L.Stephens-Howling.
Tennessee Titans at 2:37
1-10-TEN 1 (2:37) V.Young pass short right to K.Britt to TEN 7 for 6 yards (D.Rodgers-Cromartie).
2-4-TEN 7 (2:05) V.Young pass incomplete short right to B.Scaife.
Two-Minute Warning
3-4-TEN 7 (2:00) (Shotgun) V.Young pass incomplete short right to K.Britt (D.Rodgers-Cromartie).
4-4-TEN 7 (1:56) (Shotgun) V.Young pass short left to K.Britt to TEN 17 for 10 yards (B.McFadden). P15
1-10-TEN 17 (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) V.Young pass short middle to B.Scaife to TEN 36 for 19 yards (B.McFadden, A.Wilson). P16
1-10-TEN 36 (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) V.Young pass short left to L.Hawkins pushed ob at TEN 38 for 2 yards (B.McFadden).
2-8-TEN 38 (1:09) (Shotgun) V.Young pass short left to J.Cook ran ob at 50 for 12 yards. P17
1-10-50 (1:03) (Shotgun) V.Young pass incomplete deep left to N.Washington.
2-10-50 (:57) (Shotgun) V.Young scrambles right end pushed ob at ARZ 44 for 6 yards (M.Adams).
3-4-ARZ 44 (:48) (Shotgun) V.Young pass incomplete short right to B.Scaife [D.Dockett].
4-4-ARZ 44 (:43) (Shotgun) V.Young pass short left to L.Hawkins pushed ob at ARZ 31 for 13 yards (M.Adams). P18
1-10-ARZ 31 (:37) (Shotgun) V.Young pass short left to B.Scaife ran ob at ARZ 26 for 5 yards.
2-5-ARZ 26 (:33) (Shotgun) V.Young pass incomplete deep left to N.Washington.
3-5-ARZ 26 (:28) (Shotgun) V.Young pass short middle to J.Cook pushed ob at ARZ 9 for 17 yards (R.Brown). P19
Timeout #1 by ARZ at 00:21.
1-9-ARZ 9 (:21) (Shotgun) V.Young pass incomplete short middle to B.Scaife.
2-9-ARZ 9 (:17) (Shotgun) V.Young sacked at ARZ 10 for -1 yards (sack split by C.Campbell and C.Haggans).
Timeout #2 by TEN at 00:11.
3-10-ARZ 10 (:11) (Shotgun) V.Young pass incomplete short middle to N.Washington.
Timeout #3 by TEN at 00:06.
Timeout #2 by ARZ at 00:06.
4-10-ARZ 10 (:06) (Shotgun) V.Young pass short middle to K.Britt for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. P20
R.Bironas extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Amato, Holder-B.Kern.
ARZ 17 TEN 20, 18 plays, 99 yards, 2:37 drive, 15:00 elapsed
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Mike, I think you completely ignore the fact that the Bucs lost their punter to a torn hamstring earlier in the game when attempting a fake, and that their PK, Connor Barth would be the punter and have to try and pin the Falcons inside their 20. I think you look at the situation, the fact Barth was 3/3 from 50+ yards, and the fact that a shanked punt is a greater possibility and I think Morris' decision makes more sense. I would have preferred letting Barth do what he is best at, kick FGs, and it was clear that he was within his range.
Ah Michael, tis always easy to second guess a play after the fact. Unfortunately for the Buc's there inconsistant punter was on the sidelines with a pulled hamstring and unavailable. As I see it, punting was there last option. Barth the place kicker had a 3 field goal weekend the week before from 50+ yards. Also his only had 1 previous at punting earlier in the game, when he got off a low punt without a pass rush. If they do an all out rush to block his punt, who knows how he may have performed. The problem with the drive for the win came in the last minute when Tampa Bay was forced to subsitute a practice squad player for the injured Talib. 7 plays from inside the 10 yard line, this player had an holding call to extend the extra downs. Everyone criticizes Morris because they assume the punter would have performed flawlessly.
Substitute Belichick for Morris, and would say that he had faith in his kicker? You've beaten up Morris a few times already this year (I agree with you on most of those critiques but here I differ).
This is a tough situation - they are a 1-win team so not a lot of decisions are going their way, they don't get breaks, and they aren't executing well in most facets of the game. I didn't know the punter was hurt so not punting makes perfect sense.
Their defense couldn't hold the Dolphins a few weeks ago when it looked like they had the game locked so maybe that was in Morris' head too.
Personally I would've gone for the 4th down conversion behind a power running formation and trust Cadillac Williams. Or spread the field and call a quarterback draw with Freeman - he's done much better than I thought he would as a rookie. Doesn't look lost or overmatched most of the time.
I'm not going to fault a coach of a 1-win team being aggressive late in the game. I would've gone all in with my best unit, the offensive line, rather than a below-average kicker.
@TNT "it isn't 4th and 2 from your own 23."
After Monday, you and everyone else can let this go. It's apparent BB was right on that call as his D sucks and he knows it. That call, right now, looks like the only call he could have made with a good conscience.
Personally, I thought 4th and 2 was a good call at the time because it was obvious his D was beaten in the fourth quarter. Just because something's done a certain way doesn't mean it's always the right way. In 1985, the shotgun spread would have been widely panned by "experts" because you gotta run the ball and play D and that's the only way you can win! Everyone runs the shotgun spread now and wins ball games. There's more than one way to do things and not all good decisions work out. I bet Philly v. the Raiders a few weeks ago. In retrospect, can you really blame me, even though I lost that bet?
Great article Mike--some posters ignored the fact that 2 of TB's top corners were hurt at the end of the game making it tougher to defend a short field. The odds of making a 51 yarder are never great, I don't care what the kickers' percentage is. You're right to make the Falcon's make the decision on fourth down, they might have even had to burn a timeout to make the decision at that point. As for not having your punter due to injury....the injury occurred on the stupid decision to fake punt(for no reason other than the other team would be coming after the kicker, nothing on tape to exploit!). Barth outkicked Johnson when he got the one opportunity to do it from his own endzone, so odds were totally in favor of not kicking a long field goal at that point in time, especially for minimal reward.
Dome teams can open a loading bay if the wind is blowing certain ways and bring a bit of crosswind to an end zone(St.Louis). It's still better than outdoor kick.
If you've made a fifty yarder in a game, don't do it again unless compelled by the other team making a kick of the same or longer distance. That keeps field position in your favor.
Hated to see Seabass nail a long kick, then late in the half another was tried and missed, giving the opponent a short field to make up for short time and momentum to score, and go on to win the game.
Barth the place kicker had a 3 field goal weekend the week before from 50+ yards.
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Dec 01, 2009
08:38 PM
Mike - Good article. One point:
"My last option is No. 3, as I would rather go for it, feeling my odds are more favorable to make a first down on fourth and 4 than make a 51 yarder and lose seven additional yards."
- On the season, Connor Barth was 3/3 from 50+ (all 3 coming in Miami), and 3/4 lifetime.
- Career, he's 83% coming into that kick (15 of 18)
- The Bucs as an offense have converted 7 of 16 4th downs, for 43%.
In this case the stats are on Morris' side. Attempting a FG in a dome from 51 isn't a sure thing but it isn't 4th and 2 from your own 23.