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Tavern talk: Fixing Brady’s problems

Like a pitcher, Pats QB has lost his strike zone. Michael Lombardi

Bookmark and Share Print This Send This October 14, 2009, 06:19 PM EST
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Tom BradyAPIs there something wrong with Tom Brady?

What’s wrong with Tom Brady? I’ve been asked that question a lot recently. Why he isn’t the Tom Brady of old? What’s happened to him since his knee injury? Interestingly, the same questions were being asked of Peyton Manning last year when he returned from a knee injury. And their stats are surprisingly similar. Take a look:

Both were 3-2 after five games.

MANNING

115/182     63.1     1,302     8 TDs-5 INTs     9 SACKS        8 +25 PLAYS

BRADY

127/207     61.3     1,344     6 TDs-2 INTs     5 SACKS        7 +25 PLAYS

These stats look amazingly similar in that both players willed their teams to wins without playing their best football. Does this mean the best from Brady is yet to come?

Knee injuries are difficult to overcome in a short time. A quarterback’s lower body, like a baseball pitcher’s, is where he gets his power, drive and the accuracy. Footwork is essential to the quarterback, and right now, Brady occasionally loses the strike zone in terms of accuracy. He seems to be overthrowing the ball with his arm, not unlike a pitcher who loses the strike zone when he throws with just his arm.

Peyton ManningAPIt took some time for Peyton Manning last year to come back 100% from injury.

This doesn’t happen all the time, but at times the ball doesn’t come off his hand as smoothly as it did before the injury. He doesn’t look as though he’s in rhythm with his wide receivers about where exactly on the field they’ll be on each play. On the seam route that he missed to Wes Welker, Brady thought Welker was going to hook up, and Welker thought he would stay in the seam since the middle of the field was open. Most routes in the Patriots’ scheme are read routes and require precise timing with the quarterback and wide receivers.

Brady is a competitor. He’s not shy about admitting his missed throws, and so he’ll continue to work on finding ways to improve. As his lower body strengthens, he should become more accurate and not overthrow every ball using his arm.

There is nothing wrong with the Patriots’ offensive scheme. They have guys open in the routes. What they need is for Tom Brady to be Tom Brady. And like Manning, it takes time to get back from an injury.

Follow me on Twitter: michaelombardi

Comments

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draft111
Oct 14, 2009
06:35 PM

Mike,

Doesn't Brady's arm look weaker than in 2007? Your thoughts on his arm strength please.

Tristan
Oct 14, 2009
06:41 PM

Just to be clear, the stats for Manning in 2008 and Brady in 2009 have been incorrectly reversed. Brady currently has 6 TDs and 2 INTs.

johnwer
Oct 14, 2009
06:49 PM

Do you believe the Pats will get back to the offensive production they had in 2007? I don't. I think that was a special year where everything came together just right for them. I'm not saying they won't have stretches in games where they click, I think they will, but not as consistently as they did then. It is very difficult to maintain the high level of play they did in 2007 plus they are all a couple of years older.

malle712
Oct 14, 2009
08:55 PM

Mike, this comment is does not relate to this post. But I would like to ask if you could comment about Malcolm Gladwell's article which compares football to pitbull fighting. Gladwell makes the comparison because of the recent studies which show how much football damages the brains of those who play. I would be very interested to hear what you have to say. Don't get me wrong. I love football. But it is hard to enjoy something if you know that you are watching someone possibly ruining their lives. Thanks.

jeffberk
Oct 14, 2009
08:57 PM

Mike, A few days ago you had a column regarding the Patriots running game and in it you mentioned that they lacked a back that could get the tough yards. I replied that Sammy Morris was that man and that when Brady stopped missing open receivers that the running game would improve. Brady will get better and no one will talk about the running game.

chris
Oct 14, 2009
09:34 PM

he's missed open receivers all season.
unless that changes, the Pats aren't going anywhere.

Oscar
Oct 14, 2009
11:26 PM

Funny how you experts didn't mention this PRIOR to the season. All we heard was "Brady is back, he is great, the Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl, blah blah blah"

phil olsen
Oct 14, 2009
11:27 PM

michael,
thanks for the patience and long- view. My question is simple, the answer might require some complexity: After the Giants threw everything but the kitchen sink at brady in super bowl and won, the prevailing mantra is that you win against the pats by blitzing them to death.. however, it seems worded as if that is a special attacking style used ONLY against brady and the pats.. in fact, that is the MAIN point of success against any great qb.. perhaps I am,as a patriots fan, reading too much into this "success" thing against them but really that is no different than the strategy employed against any great qb, like a manning or brees also. Do you think that Brady and the pats are particularly susceptible to this.. thanks and sorry for the long winded nature ...

Matt M.
Oct 14, 2009
11:53 PM

Those stats are eerily similar. Here's to hoping Brady gets back in sync soon since they say it usually takes a full year to recover from such a devastating injury and were a week past that now. He has missed at leas 5 maybe 7 throws that could have gone for touchdowns. 3 to Moss, one to welker and one to Edleman that I can recall. Hes overthrowing on the deep ball and throwin high on some short ones. Just like you said is all arm at least hes moving better in the pocket and each week getting back to the old Brady.

Thanks the the article Mike.

patspscyho
Oct 15, 2009
12:33 AM

On that overthrow to Moss vs. Denver, he left a lot of weight on his backfoot, and you could clearly see this because the front sole of the backfoot was still planted, as opposed to just the tip of the toe. Throwing a lot of weight on the lead foot while locking the knee apparently requires serious faith on the part of the quarterback coming back from ACL injury. As you said everything starts with the foot, so it is moot to question his mechanics above the waist until he overcomes the deficiencies below the waist.

Both losses come by a total of 6 points, and were against undefeated teams; in fact, Patriots play their first opponent with a loss, next Sunday, so I don't think there is anything else required at this stage other than patience.

Ben R.
Oct 15, 2009
10:00 AM

I hope you're right that he'll get it back as the season progresses. But his injury was much more severe than Manning's was, so I worry that expecting a similar timetable is too optimistic.

Alan
Oct 15, 2009
02:53 PM

Again, way too short of a column. I know you are taking on new responsibilities, but at the same time you have to dance with who brought you. You're emergence is due to the in depth quality writing with an insider's perspective. Don't neglect that.

Romo
Oct 15, 2009
07:03 PM

patspscyho -- having watched film on Brady for all games this season, I think you've identified the primary area that Brady must fix. He is not consistent and balanced with his feet. Pressure that affects his ability to step into a throw (pressure directed at his left leg) has been devastating to his accuracy. I think he missed two TD throws vs. the Broncos because of such pressure.

Mr.Murder
Oct 15, 2009
09:06 PM

He's actually missed some of their easier reads. He's operating on assumptions and this is killing his true anticipation.

Part of the problem, IMO, is that they have changed some players there due to age or trade and it is shaping the awareness of their team as a whole. Some defensive players are gone, during the adjustment phase, the team has its stars trying to do more. Thus you see Brady out of his game.

If he settles into his game and plays great once again, that is excellence spectrum he commands. Brady is striving for perfection instead and he's getting ahead of his own real time ability.
Mike's quote to start the story the day before applies to Brady's present mindset.
He missed a MOFO read, because Dawkins was the player, he assumed Dawkins would read back when the guy is usually extremely aggressive. Maybe he was trying to anticipate that the defense would rotate behind Dawk and allow him to jump a route under, instead Dawk was frozen and Brady more or less froze with it.

The hardest thing to do is be confident in the easiest path when you are faced with a great challenge. That's where the fundamentals are sharpest as well, and he has had some fundamental issues with his mechanics.

Coupled with this is a series of setbacks to several players. Fred Taylor was running monstrously, but he lacks elusiveness and the hits took their toll on a faster timeline than he is accustomed. The overall run game is getting less effective and with it Watson's getting dinged up. Suddenly the line is teeing off on pash rush splits and your great point of attack blocker isn't always there to help command play action.

Wes and Randy could not find the groove and were getting hit more. The games that teams started rotating hard to Welker under to hit him early and wear him down were not anomalies, they are part of the trend against that route combo. The last two seasons he is starting to pay the price for the shallow series.

Randy also draws more doubles. The final option was once Gaffney, and the replacement name player has been a dud in Galloway. Yeah the last option does not see a lot of action but his reps must be effective, there's no timing there now, and there's less blocking as well. The sum of a player's efforts are greater than career stat lines, and the Pats are missing some of that in their peripheral players.

This is early in the year and the team still has a winning record. Their division no longer has easy chalk up wins in Miami and New York. That's twice a year you have to pay more to get past an opponent and it can carry over to the following week.

The team still needed Seymour, who can they add to make that kind of presence in the way they prepare and play? Players missing in how you prepare can affect the entire team mindset. Other players start leaving their own range of ability and try to play outside of their selves. There's no need to do it when you are great, be who you are.

When the team gets back into the range of playing with a lead, expect more of the razzle dazzle defensive looks, stemming players around, flexing positions, not unlike the things used in their first Super Bowl season at certain times. Anything to change the flow if a team is in their groove against you. If the other team struggles, work it a week of to the nose fundamentals.

Are there enough players in place to hammer down on basics?

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