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Tavern talk: almost blue list

Don’t worry, we’re making adjustments. Michael Lombardi

Bookmark and Share Print This Send This August 24, 2009, 06:06 PM EST
19 Comments

Here is the almost blue list. I’ve heard the Packer Nation loudly on Charles Woodson. He’s going to the blue-chip list, but with 16 corners, I clearly need to move some of them into the blue section.

On Tuesday, there will be adjustments to the blue list based on the comments and help I’m receiving. Wednesday, we’ll circle back and make adjustments to the almost blue list again based on further review. Then on Thursday, we’ll have our complete list done by teams and place them in our Blue Power Ratings. Teams with top-10 head coaches will get an additional 12 points. Here are the values:

BLUE

QB 13
Head Coach 12
Lt. OT 11
Pass Rusher 11
CB 10.5
All others 10

ALMOST BLUE

QB 8
Lt. OT 6
Pass Rusher 6
CB 5.5
All others 5

MY ALMOST BLUE LIST:

OFFENSE

QB (2): Ryan, Hasselbeck.

Marshawn LynchAPMarshawn Lynch

RB (5): Lynch, R. Brown, L. Johnson, F. Jones, S. Jackson.

FB (1): McClain.

TE (1): Cooley.

WR (9): Owens, Holmes, D. Jackson, S. Moss, Driver, Berrian, Colston, Moore, Boldin.

OT (5): Light, Albert, Otah, Penn, Staley.

OG (3): Pitts, L. Davis, S. Andrews.

C (1): Gurode.

RS (2) Parrish, Cribbs.

Punter/Kicker (2): Janikowski, Scifres.

DEFENSE

DE (3): Seymour, Mathis, Vanden Bosch.

DT (6): Stroud, Hampton, T. Brown, J. Williams, P. Williams, D. Lewis.

ILB (6): B. Scott, R. Lewis, Ryans, Urlacher, Barnett, Tatupu.

OLB (6): A. Thomas, Bulluck, Briggs, E. Sims, Kampman, Dansby.

CB (16): J. Joseph, L. Hall, E. Wright, Robinson, M. Jackson, Bailey, A. Cromartie, Newman,Webster, Samuel, Harris, Woodson, Gamble, Rodgers-Cromartie, Clements, Trufant.

S (3): R. Nelson, Griffin, Horton.

Comments

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Andrew N.
Aug 24, 2009
06:28 PM

As far as CB goes I would promote Woodson, Samuel, and Bailey.

Samuel is easily top 10 at CB and QBs are sure to avoid him because they respect his ability. Same with Bailey though not as much as two seasons ago.

I am really not a fan of Kampman being on any list. As a 4-3 DE he is one of the best in the NFL today. But he is now standing up and he may be completely ineffective in the 3-4.

Dej
Aug 24, 2009
06:35 PM

I really like the work that you are doing here, but am surprised by the lack of non-LT O-linemen. From the list above we'd assume that among the 128 starting non-LT linemen there are less than 10 blue chip or almost blue chip level players, which seems unbelievable. You have such insightful comments for D Line guys, that I'm surprised you can't identify more elite O Line Guys as part of this list.

Dej
Aug 24, 2009
06:43 PM

I really like the work that you are doing here, but am surprised by the lack of non-LT O-linemen. From the list above we'd assume that among the 128 starting non-LT linemen there are less than 10 blue chip or almost blue chip level players, which seems unbelievable. You have such insightful comments for D Line guys, that I'm surprised you can't identify more elite O Line Guys as part of this list.

been there
Aug 24, 2009
08:07 PM

andrew n, in regards to kampman, if he impacts the game on third down then he will be a blue...dlman who get the offense off the field are impact players.....another point to remember, when the pack goes to sub, they most likely will be in an even front and kampman will havehsi hand down, and as you already pointed out he is an impact player with his hand down

Octavio Ventouras
Aug 24, 2009
09:29 PM

It makes sense to have more corners then safeties. Look at the Hall of fame, if the safety was a better talent, he would be a corner!

smh212
Aug 24, 2009
10:07 PM

Chris Horton? Really? From my view, Horton is more of a product of the system he plays in then his overall talents. Let's not forget he dropped to the 7th round for a reason. Horton is not asked to cover WR's, only TE's and RB's. I don't know, put him in space and I think he gets lost. Not sure of is IQ either.

g
Aug 24, 2009
11:05 PM

Shouldn't there be twice as many "blue" players at positions with twice as many players on the field? For example, 20 CBs and 10 QBs.

Josh H
Aug 25, 2009
12:28 AM

I'm curious whether E.J. Henderson, LB for the Vikings, is anywhere near this list...He was on track for a Pro Bowl before he got hurt...and then Chad Greenway showed us why he was a first round pick. Watch out for the Vikings if Chilly can figure out what the heck he wants to do on offense.

lawofbob
Aug 25, 2009
06:46 AM

If you're going to include Matt Ryan on your list, I think Flacco needs to also be in consideration for 'almost blue chip.' After watching the preseason Jets vs Ravens, I can't really think of a more composed quarterback out there. I wouldn't be surprised if Flacco will have a few more Super Bowel rings than Ryan.

Jeffrey S
Aug 25, 2009
08:26 AM

Lawofbob: Flacco looks like he is going to take major strides this year, but season has not started so can't really count it. Both took their teams to the playoffs, but Ryan had to do much more without the Baltimore defense on his side. More often than not, Flacco wasn't asked to go out and win the game, rather to just not lose. The same can't be said for Ryan. Does anyone else find it weird to turn on a Baltimore game and actually see a good qb? It always looks strange to me, seeing a good qb in a baltimore jersey. Don't get me wrong, Mcnair was a great player in his day...but while at Baltimore he didn't look all that good to me.
I also agree with most the feelings on Bailey here. While he has been less productive and toasted a few times these last two years, before that he was the best corner in league. I think nagging injuries and lack of a decent or even mediocre front seven has made him look a lot worse. You can only cover good recievers so long, y'know? I have always felt he is a beast against the run too, perfect form tackler for a guy his size in my opinon.
Anyhoo...heres hoping Ronnie Brown takes the leap this year. Go Fish!!

phil
Aug 25, 2009
09:38 AM

Scifers is blue. Check out '09 divisional playoff game vs colts.

Danny
Aug 25, 2009
10:02 AM

I think Reggie Bush is an almost blue, if not blue return specialist. No matter what you think of him as a running back, he's a game-changer as a punt returner.

Mel
Aug 25, 2009
10:12 AM

As part of a reply to Rod's Woodson's Top 5 Cb list on NFL Total Access, Fabian Washington 'e-mailed/twittered' including Corey Webster within his top 5. For anyone who has watched his play over the last season (and in the Giants playoff run in 2007) they know why.....

All I will say is have a look at Pro Football Focus CB Analysis (they analyse each play of each game to provide an objective view of each players play during the season):

http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_position.php?tab=by_position&season=2008&pos=CB&stype=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numgames=1

16 games started during the regular season and 1 post season game

During Regular season:
Targeted 67 times, only completed 27, 40% completion which was best by a starter in the NFL last season in their analysis.

Overall (including post season loss): Targeted 78 times, 34 completions (43 %)

Rating against him in Regular season: 41.2 (in the top 5 for starters last season)
Total YAC in Regular season on those 27 passes 89 yards (with a maximum of 32 yards) so a very low YAC as well.


From NFL.com:
24 Pass deflections (most in NFL last season); 3 INT's;

Steven Cains
Aug 25, 2009
10:52 AM

I think Kirk Morrison deserves to be on the almost blue list, in fact I think there's a case for him a blue chip player.

Ken
Aug 25, 2009
11:18 AM

Can anyone take this seriously when Lee Evans is a Blue Chipper but Anquan Boldin isn't? Ridiculous.

Go Bolts
Aug 25, 2009
01:40 PM

Gotta have Scifers as a blue. The Colts game was amazing, but approximately 40% of all his punts were within the 20. Hunter Smith was also very good-2 touchbacks out of 53 punts, with 23 within the 20. You couldn't ask for better field position.

thersitz
Aug 25, 2009
02:12 PM

hey Mike,

sorry to belabor my sad complaint, but I am hoping you have the time to provide the rationale for rating Evans, Bryant, V Jax and White over Boldin as Blues. The Evans and Bryant selections are stumpers for me, in terms of the comparison. V Jax seems to be based on the potential you believe he has -- as opposed to a continual level of production to this point in his career. White I see as a very solid receiver with huge upside at this point in his career. But he did not see quality starter time until his 3rd year -- I do not recall if he was injured his first two. But the majority of your Blue WRs were Blue out of the gate.

I did not see your posts explaining the criteria for qualifying as a true Blues Singer -- is it future potential or past production or a combo but I believe Boldin is still playing at a level close to where he was when he entered the league as a dynamo sans a Fitz and a quality team.

One point against Bryant: if he were truly a Blue -- why has he been a Cowboy, Brown, Niner and a Buc? I reckon free agency could be one argument -- but 3 teams have let go of a Blue?

I see Boldin as equal to Jennings and maybe even A Johnson -- though I feel Boldin is more a short yardage take the beating, quick throw target with incredible yards after catch potential whereas Jennings is a bomber and field stretcher.

Another point on Boldin is Fitz. On one hand Fitz draws a lot of coverage, on the other hand Fitz takes a lot of balls that would likely come Boldin's way if not for Fitz. That aspect to Boldin's situation is not really duplicated in the situations of many other of your Blues. And I realize it works both ways -- for him as a blue and against him as a blue. But even with Fitz there Boldin's numbers have been extremely productive and his value even Fitz appreciates enough to restructure his dough making.

Let's use Evans as an example of a WR with no great complement. Boldin's career stats are slightly better than Evans' -- in spite of Fitz. I guess maybe Evans played across Moulds a spell -- I'll have to check. So is Evans a better WR because he had no complement -- or Boldin the better of the two because his past 4 yrs has been with a supreme complement. I think I am confounding my argument a bit.

Thanks for providing these lists -- they are a lot of fun.

jhu12
Aug 25, 2009
05:12 PM

Have you not realized that Chad Johnson has changed his name to Ochocinco? Because, there is no other explanation for leaving him off the blue-chipper lists. In fact, I consider it borderline offensive. I know there are only a few Bengals fans on these boards defending themselves and their team (nor should they really)... but the Ocho is a top 10 WR in the NFL, and even if you don't agree to leave him out of the top 20 is ludicrous. I understand you may not like him personally and you may think he disrupts a team, but the fact is that he is an elite player.

You asked for stats to back it up... I'll oblige with some research:

1. From 2003-2008 (5 full seasons) - the Ocho had at least 87 catches, at least 1274, and at least 7 TDs ... he AVERAGED - 92.4 catches, 1374 yards, and 8.6 TDs per season.

2. He led the AFC in receiving yards for 4 consecutive seasons.

3. In the one season we seem to be dissing him for (last year) he: a) injured an ankle? in the preseason; b) played the entire season with a torn labrum; c) played 12 of the 16 games with a backup QB who couldn't throw it more than 10 yds downfield; and d) a terrible offensive line.

4. I'm not saying any of the players on your list don't deserve to be there, but let's look at the stats of the career years of some of your blue-chip WRs and keep in mind what Chad Ochocinco AVERAGED FOR 5 years (before last year's debacle that was the entire Bengals team): (Catches/Yds/TDs)

Evans (2006) 82/1292/8
V. Jackson (2008) 59/1098/7
A. Bryant (2008) 83/1248/7
R. White (2008) 88/1382/7
Jennings (2008) 80/1292/9

The Ocho's average seasons are better than their career years (4 of which occurred last year and may be a sign of something or may be a fluke)

5. Even Lombardi has to admit he's looked great in camp and the preseason so far and there is no reason to expect he won't have a huge year in 2009 (barring a C. Palmer injury*)

*and before we go saying that he needs Carson Palmer, only two of your blue chip receivers (Calvin Johnson and Lee Evans) didn't have an elite QB last year. Bryant had Garcia who has made a lot of receivers rich.

That is all, looking forward to some information as to why he was left off your blue-chip list (or even your 'almost blue' llist)

Manoog
Aug 26, 2009
05:09 PM

Clifton Smith should ABSOLUTELY be on the Almost Blue returner list. If not now, he and Aqib Talib will both be on the almost blue or blue lists by the end of the year. Here's to hoping Gaines Adams and Davin Joseph play there way onto a list at the end of the year as well.

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